2012 Academy Awards

[DaMovieMan]

Originally Posted by Gordon

Man, Haneke and Amour have been moving up the charts and they seem to be gaining momentum now when it really counts. Obviously they're on the bubble now but it would definitely give me a little love for the academy if they actually nominated Amour/Haneke.

I hope they do nominate it for other categories and not just the Foreign Film (where's it's pretty much locked for nomination at this point). It's one of the best films of the year, and I'd have to disagree with Bourne because it's the warmest and most heartfelt Haneke film I've ever seen (it's as heartfelt as he's going to get anyway). I found it a bit more than just watching someone die for 2 hours because it had dreams, the pigeon, the paintings, the daughter and the ex-student-turned-master all in the mix to reveal things about marriage, life ambition, passion and family values. The directing itself is probably its weakest aspect, but it's still a better directed film than most of what came out this year.
Riva, the Screenplay and Best Picture would be lovely. Trintigant was just as good as Riva but his chances are pretty much zero.

[Gordon]

Originally Posted by Bourne101

I'm actually surprised that it's getting the amount of buzz that it is. People act like it's this out of left field warm film from Haneke, but I'd argue it's one of the most cold and clinical films he's made. I liked it, but I don't know if that kind of story suits his sensibilities. There's always been a sense of mystery and unease in his films. There isn't much of that here. It's basically just two hours of watching someone die and the effect that it has on the husband. There's an obvious metaphorical pigeon thrown in the mix, but not much else. I also found that purely from a direction standpoint, it's one of his weaker efforts. It's the performances that really carry it.

I think this is the only film Haneke has ever and probably will ever make that could be Academy-friendly enough to get nominated. So it's okay for me that they're (hopefully) doing it on a weaker effort, because I don't really expect much more from them (I'm really excited to see it, but the general consensus does seem to be in line with what you're saying, i.e. it has much of the Haneke greatness but is not at the level of his masterpieces). I mean for instance I cannot imagine they would ever in any possible world nominate Caché or White Ribbon for anything major.

In the end I'm just glad one of my favorite working directors, someone who basically everyone would assume could never be nominated, may actually be getting recognized. I think it's a win for cinema fans.

[DaMovieMan]

Originally Posted by Bourne101

Sally Field? Really? I expected the love for Lincoln, but I thought she was one of the worst things about the film, and those scenes were terrible in general. I knew it would be either Zero Dark Thirty, Lincoln or The Master in the big categories. A bit of a shame that they ignored The Master, but I'm glad that the Lincoln love fest didn't extend into the two top categories. Zero Dark looks like a much more interesting film.

While I haven't seen The Deep Blue Sea, I'm glad that they went with someone unexpected here. Fuck Jeff Wells and his implication that only frontrunners in the Oscar race should win the critic awards.

As for frontrunner status, you are right DMM that December will reveal all, but I think you are right in that Lincoln might end up taking it. I guess I underestimated how much love there is for it after the initial reviews seemed rather polite. I'll never understand it, but yeah, I agree with you now.

We'll see. Like Tapley says, Les Miz isn't a critics awards movie which is why it got no love with the NYFCC peeps. The guilds ate it up though. Once it comes out and once we get more reactions, things should be a bit more clearer.

All that to say though, Lincoln is one helluva important film and the Spielbergisms are kept down to a minimum which made me enjoy it even more. There are tons of better films this year, but if it ends up winning I wouldn't be disappointed.

Originally Posted by Bourne101

Hahaha. I assume you are referring to Sasha Stone, the biggest embarrassment in Oscar blogging.

You really hate her huh? She's super political and can get a little too biased for my tastes, but apart from that I love that she champions films she thinks are important and deserve Academy rights and she does it all with a fuck-off-if-you-don't-like-it attitude. Plus I like her writing style. Jeff Wells is the one that pisses me off, HE is the biggest embarrassment.

[Bourne101]

Originally Posted by DaMovieMan

I found it a bit more than just watching someone die for 2 hours because it had dreams, the pigeon, the paintings, the daughter and the ex-student-turned-master all in the mix to reveal things about marriage, life ambition, passion and family values.

I just felt that it was all a little obvious, which is something I don't come to expect from Haneke. I will obviously be pleased if he is recognized by the Academy (he's a great director and Amour is pretty good), but in an ideal world he should be recognized for his other (better) work.

Originally Posted by DaMovieMan

You really hate her huh? She's super political and can get a little too biased for my tastes, but apart from that I love that she champions films she thinks are important and deserve Academy rights and she does it all with a fuck-off-if-you-don't-like-it attitude. Plus I like her writing style. Jeff Wells is the one that pisses me off, HE is the biggest embarrassment.

She's an idiot. Instead of recognizing that there are a ton of great films this year (something people like Tapley and Thompson frequently discuss) she just picks one film and treats it likes it's that film against the world. Django screened the other day to rave reactions and she puts up this big defense of "you guys shouldn't be talking about Oscars with this movie" when she hasn't even seen it. She's just always trying to protect her baby, which this year is Lincoln. Even when she says good things about other movies, it always just feels like she's saying it to cover up the fact that her life revolves around trying to get Lincoln to win. She also makes proclamations that make absolutely no sense. There's no way in hell that Lincoln is some cerebral movie where audiences have to "do the work" to understand it. Lincoln is about as straight forward as a film can get and is in no way "cerebral". I've seen 15+ films this year more complex than Lincoln. She is the equivalent of a child who vomits an argument and then puts her fingers in her ears while she jumps up and down and says "lalalalalalalala" whenever someone provides a good counterargument.

Wells pisses me off because he's just a pig, but I think his no bullshit attitude is much more amusing that Stone's. Stone's articles are all way too overlong and serious, whereas Wells is very to the point.

[Lazy Boy]

Originally Posted by Bourne101

She is the equivalent of a child who vomits an argument and then puts her fingers in her ears while she jumps up and down and says "lalalalalalalala" whenever someone provides a good counterargument.

Michael Sicinski: "Frankly I'd much rather read awards season coverage from @SashaGrey. Her tastes are far more refined."

[ilovemovies]

Despite doing well here, I seriously doubt Rachel Weisz and Matthew McConaughey will get nominations. And if McConaughey does get nominated I would have thought it would be for Killer Joe than for either Magic Mike or Bernie.

And I agree with Bourne and Lazy Boy that Sally Field doesn't deserve the love she's getting. Though unlike you guys, I didn't think she was bad, just not awards worthy. There are really only 2 awards worthy performances from that movie: DDL and Tommy Lee Jones.

[Lazy Boy]

Originally Posted by ilovemovies

Despite doing well here, I seriously doubt Rachel Weisz and Matthew McConaughey will get nominations. And if McConaughey does get nominated I would have thought it would be for Killer Joe than for either Magic Mike or Bernie.

You think the Academy would go for something like the NC-17 Killer Joe, with THAT scene? (have you seen it yet?)

Career surge + 100 million dollar grossing Magic Mike (although you can't entirely attribute that to him), I think he has a better chance with that movie than Joe.

[Matchbox225]

Rachel Weisz absolutely deserves an Oscar nomination for her performance in The Deep Blue Sea. It's the best peformance I've seen by an actess so far this year.

It's certainly a better performance than most of the ones from actresses that will probably receive nominations. Plus, she's actually the lead of her film, which won't be the case for some of the contenders for Best Actress.

I applaud the NYFC for going with her.

They and the Los Angeles Critics awards are the ones I have the most respect for because they aren't about trying to predict the Oscar nominations and are about awarding the best they've seen.

I guess Zero Dark Thirty is really in it now. That certainly shakes the Best Picture race up a bit.

The Master is in serious trouble now. I really think Best Picture is out, as well as director. I could even see Phoenix missing if he doesn't win any other critics awards.

[ilovemovies]

Originally Posted by Lazy Boy

You think the Academy would go for something like the NC-17 Killer Joe, with THAT scene? (have you seen it yet?)

Career surge + 100 million dollar grossing Magic Mike (although you can't entirely attribute that to him), I think he has a better chance with that movie than Joe.

Haven't seen the movie yet. It comes to DVD/Blu-Ray later this month.

I just thought he got more acclaim for that movie than for Magic Mike and certainly Bernie.

[DaMovieMan]

Originally Posted by ilovemovies

Haven't seen the movie yet. It comes to DVD/Blu-Ray later this month.

I just thought he got more acclaim for that movie than for Magic Mike and certainly Bernie.

I haven't seen Magic Mike or Bernie, but he gives an Oscar worthy performance in Killer Joe for sure. Trouble is, the film is completely demented and that last scene that Lazy Boy mentions, probably makes the majority of Academy voters dizzy from outrage.

I think the NYFCC gave him the Sup. Actor with Killer Joe very much on their minds. The movie is a complete blast, and he's the biggest reason why.

[DaMovieMan]

Originally Posted by Bourne101

I just felt that it was all a little obvious, which is something I don't come to expect from Haneke. I will obviously be pleased if he is recognized by the Academy (he's a great director and Amour is pretty good), but in an ideal world he should be recognized for his other (better) work.

I hear ya. It's definitely not his best work and it was evident that he was a bit out of his comfort zone with this one, but it's one of my favorites of the year still (goes to show how much I admire him as a filmmaker; even when he doesn't meet his own standards he makes one of the best movies of the year)

Originally Posted by Bourne101

She's an idiot. Instead of recognizing that there are a ton of great films this year (something people like Tapley and Thompson frequently discuss) she just picks one film and treats it likes it's that film against the world. Django screened the other day to rave reactions and she puts up this big defense of "you guys shouldn't be talking about Oscars with this movie" when she hasn't even seen it. She's just always trying to protect her baby, which this year is Lincoln. Even when she says good things about other movies, it always just feels like she's saying it to cover up the fact that her life revolves around trying to get Lincoln to win. She also makes proclamations that make absolutely no sense. There's no way in hell that Lincoln is some cerebral movie where audiences have to "do the work" to understand it. Lincoln is about as straight forward as a film can get and is in no way "cerebral". I've seen 15+ films this year more complex than Lincoln. She is the equivalent of a child who vomits an argument and then puts her fingers in her ears while she jumps up and down and says "lalalalalalalala" whenever someone provides a good counterargument.

Hmm, I didn't see that bit about Django. I've read from her that she loves Tarantino, and she's been helping to spread the Oscar buzz for it from the get go. Strange. Anyways, I can totally see how a lot of people don't like her. She fell in love with Argo, Life of Pi, The Master, Cloud Atlas and Dark Knight Rises just as much as she fell in love with Lincoln, but the way I see it is that she's championing Lincoln because she knows the others don't really stand a chance at winning. Anyways, she also completely fell in love with Zero Dark Thirty, and she calls The Hurt Locker "one of the best movies ever" so it's going to be interesting to see who she swings for more this time around, ZD30 or Lincoln. Because she didn't take kindly to Les Miz or Silver Linings.

I don't always agree with her, but I love how long her articles are (the reader in me I guess) and the comments section on AD is crazy entertaining/informative sometimes.

Not that I wouldn't mind hearing what Sasha Grey had to say about the Oscars.

[Bourne101]

Final voting for NYFCC BP:

1. Zero Dark Thirty
2. Argo
3. The Master

Strange, I thought Lincoln would have been in the top 3.

[Katsumoto]

- It kills me that I probably won't get to see Zero Dark Thirty till January.
- During the opening scenes of Spielberg's War Horse, I literally had to cover my ears and look down, because of the horrible cinematography and score. I felt like doing the same every time Sally Field was on the screen during Lincoln.
- I'm all the way on the Nay side with Lincoln, so this awards season might be a rough one for me.
- Glad to see McConaughey get some early awards love, I thought he was fantastic in both films. Plus he was great in Killer Joe too.
- Queuing up The Deep Blue Sea on Netflix.

Also, because I have not posted in this thread yet and from reading through, its clear who some of your nomination wishlistees are. Here are the films and performances that I will be Sasha Stoning for this award season. (I still have my fair share to catch up on)

- Silver Linings Playbook (Performances & Film)
- Jack Black in Bernie
- Argo
- Marion Cotillard
- The Master
- End Of Watch Cast
- John Hawkes
- Mary Elizabeth Winstead in Smashed
- Beasts of the Southern Wild
- Christopher Nolan
- Moonrise Kingdom
- Andrew Dominik & James Gandolfini (Writing & Supporting, sadly the only two semi-realistic nominations)

[ilovemovies]

For those of you who have Netflix instant streaming, The Deep Blue Sea is on there.

[Bourne101]

Originally Posted by Katsumoto

- It kills me that I probably won't get to see Zero Dark Thirty till January.

I know. I'm pissed that they delayed the wide release. Hopefully Alliance has some advanced screenings in Canada.

[Bourne101]

Interesting article on the NYFCC vote:

http://blogs.artinfo.com/moviejourna...hirty-lincoln/

Report from the Front: NYFCC Garlands “Zero Dark Thirty,” “Lincoln”

by

J. Hoberman

In one of the lengthiest sessions I’ve sat through since joining the New York Film Critics Circle in 1981, the group took over five hours to decide upon its 12 annual awards, with Kathryn Bigelow’s “Zero Dark Thirty” and Steven Spielberg’s “Lincoln” — serious pictures, both filled with topical resonance — emerging as the two big winners.

Several perennial contenders, notably Paul Thomas Anderson’s “The Master,” but also Wes Anderson’s “Moonrise Kingdom” and David O. Russell’s “The Silver Lining Playbook,” were effectively shut out. The meeting, chaired by Joshua Rothkopf of Time Out New York, was amiable but consensus proved elusive. No film won on the first ballot and several took as many as four.

The sense that we were in for a long day was apparent from the onset. Benh Zeitlin’s “Beasts of the Southern Wild”, a heavy favorite for Best First Feature, fell one vote short of a first ballot victory and one voter shy of a second ballot win, ultimately defeated by a single vote on the third ballot by the documentary “How to Survive a Plague.” Ken Burns’ documentary “The Central Park Five” came from well behind in the pack to push aside the first ballot leaders, “The Gate Keepers” and “This is Not a Film,” on the fourth ballot. Tim Burton’s “Frankenweenie” needed two ballots to win Best Animated Film over Pixar’s “Brave” and the Focus Features release “ParaNorman,” in a race that saw a number of abstentions and included votes for several CGI-driven features, notably “The Hobbit” and “The Life of Pi.” Although a heavy favorite, Michael Haneke’s “Amour” still required three ballots to prevail over Leos Carax’s “Holy Motors” and Nuri Bilge Ceylan’s “Once Upon a Time in Anatolia.”

In the acting awards, Sally Field (“Lincoln”) finally defeated initial front-runner Anne Hathaway (“The Dark Knight Rises” and “Les Miserables”) for Best Supporting Actress on a fourth ballot while, in a rare second ballot win, Matthew McConaughey (“Magic Mike” and “Bernie”) beat out Christoph Waltz (“Django Unchained”) and Tommy Lee Jones (“Lincoln”). The closest and most surprising race saw Rachel Weisz (“The Deep Blue Sea”) edge Jennifer Lawrence (“The Hunger Games” and “The Silver Lining Playbook”) and Emmanuelle Riva (“Amour”). Last year’s winner Jessica Chastain (“Zero Dark Thirty”) was a factor throughout, tying for the lead on several ballots. (This race was by far the most polarized; only three of the 16 ballots cast for Lawrence or Chastain cited both actresses.) By contrast Daniel Day Lewis (“Lincoln”), possibly the most feted actor in NYFCC history, led on every ballot but still required three rounds of voting to best the closely bunched trio of Jack Black (“Bernie”), Joaquin Phoenix (“The Master”), and Denis Lavant (“Holy Motors”).

Greig Fraser was named Best Cinematographer for “Zero Dark Thirty,” beating the initial favorite, “The Master” on the third ballot. (In a simple, up and down vote, the critics declined to acknowledge Fraser for his work on “Killing Them Softly.”) Although heavily favored, Tony Kushner’s “Lincoln” screenplay needed four ballots to win over those for “Zero Dark Thirty” and “Moonrise Kingdom.” “The Master”’s relatively poor showing in this race presaging its ultimate fate. An early favorite for Best Director, Paul Thomas Anderson was overwhelmed by Kathryn Bigelow on the second ballot, with Ben Affleck (“Argo”) finishing a distant third. (Strikingly, Steven Spielberg, who failed to get a single first ballot votes, was never in contention.) By this time, it was evident that “Zero Dark Thirty” would run the table and, indeed, “The Master” finished third for Best Picture behind “Argo,” although it took three ballots for the obviously exhausted voters to decide the winner.

For the record, my first ballot votes, several intended as provocations, were: “The Master” (Best Picture), Kathryn Bigelow (Best Director), Tony Kushner (Best Screenplay), Gina “Crush” Carrano (Best Actress, for “Haywire”), Philip Seymour Hoffman (Best Actor, for “The Master”), Sally Field (Best Supporting Actress), Andy Serkis (Best Supporting Actor, for “The Hobbit”), Greig Fraser (Best Cinematographer, for “Killing Them Softly” and “Zero Dark Thirty”), “The Hobbit” (Best Animation), “Once Upon a Time in Anatolia” (Best Foreign-language Film), “The Gate Keepers” (Best Documentary) and “Beasts of the Southern Wild” (Best First Feature). Not bad: Four of my first choices won as did a number of second choices including Rachel Weisz.

[DaMovieMan]

Hoberman reveals way more than some others about how close it really was for some categories. I always thought some of his choices were (Serkis for The Hobbit and Hoffman as Best Actor in The Master? Seriously? For "provocation"?)

But I'm happy to see how close Holy Motors came with Lavant and the film in the foreign category. It's a travesty that it wasn't selected by its country to represent at the Kodak. Easily the best film of the year. (Made much easier after I saw Post Tenebras Lux is getting a 2013 release date)

Originally Posted by Bourne101

I know. I'm pissed that they delayed the wide release. Hopefully Alliance has some advanced screenings in Canada.

I hope so. Otherwise, I might have to rearrange my Christmas plans and find myself in New York to watch it.

[Bourne101]

Originally Posted by DaMovieMan

(Serkis for The Hobbit and Hoffman as Best Actor in The Master? Seriously? For "provocation"?)

I imagine a lot of critics will consider Hoffman as best actor, given that he really isn't supporting. As for Serkis, I can see that. I don't think he's in the mix at all, because way too many people still don't understand what he does, but what he does is incredible and he deserves recognition. A vote for him in The Hobbit may just be an IOU for his work on The Two Towers and Return of the King, but I hear he does his best work yet in The Hobbit.

[DaMovieMan]

Originally Posted by Bourne101

I imagine a lot of critics will consider Hoffman as best actor, given that he really isn't supporting. As for Serkis, I can see that. I don't think he's in the mix at all, because way too many people still don't understand what he does, but what he does is incredible and he deserves recognition. A vote for him in The Hobbit may just be an IOU for his work on The Two Towers and Return of the King, but I hear he does his best work yet in The Hobbit.

Crazy. Gollum's part in The Hobbit is minimal, it's more like a cameo, so I'm guessing Jackson and co. beefed up the role. Because of how small his part is in the book, I never considered him to be a serious contender when the Sup. Actor field is as juicy as ever this year. But I'll have to wait and see the film before I judge further. As an IOU, I can see that happening (for his work in Apes too) but in the position that Hoberman's in, I don't get that kind of logic. Vote for someone as an IOU who has zero chance of winning, or for someone who has an excellent chance of winning (Hoffman, Jones etc.) and would also deserve it.

As for Hoffman being Best Actor..that doesn't work for me. Phoenix is the lead. The story is about Freddie; begins with him, ends with him. I think a lot of people are thinking Hoffman should be lead since his character is the title, but I don't think The Master refers to Dodd specifically, but more for the central idea of the having a master. If that's why he won't win Supporting Actor, that would suck balls because there's no way that's category fraud.

[P1NSTR1PEZ]

Originally Posted by DaMovieMan

You really hate her huh? She's super political and can get a little too biased for my tastes, but apart from that I love that she champions films she thinks are important and deserve Academy rights and she does it all with a fuck-off-if-you-don't-like-it attitude. Plus I like her writing style. Jeff Wells is the one that pisses me off, HE is the biggest embarrassment.

I was talking to her yesterday on twitter - and I agree she's too much and her rah rah cheerleader schtick for Lincoln got annoying very quickly in terms on the NYFCC.

She has a whole Hollywood hates women and seems be a giant feminist. Also annoying.

I don't mind that she sticks up for a film she believes in but she goes waaaaaay overboard - sort of like Sally Field in Lincoln - who she adored.

[P1NSTR1PEZ]

Originally Posted by DaMovieMan

I have to stop putting off The Deep Blue Sea

watched it last night - hated it. A Giant bore. Weisz did nothing to impress me, Hiddleston was 10x more impressive.

[DaMovieMan]

Originally Posted by P1NSTR1PEZ

I was talking to her yesterday on twitter - and I agree she's too much and her rah rah cheerleader schtick for Lincoln got annoying very quickly in terms on the NYFCC.

She has a whole Hollywood hates women and seems be a giant feminist. Also annoying.

I don't mind that she sticks up for a film she believes in but she goes waaaaaay overboard - sort of like Sally Field in Lincoln - who she adored.

Yeah she can be a bit much. Together with everything I've already mentioned before, I stick up for her because she was nice enough to do an interview for me. I don't live in Hollywood so I don't know how bad it is for women and African-Americans but I tend to agree with her just based on the movies that come out.

Definitely goes overboard at times though.

[Bourne101]

Originally Posted by DaMovieMan

Crazy. Gollum's part in The Hobbit is minimal, it's more like a cameo, so I'm guessing Jackson and co. beefed up the role. Because of how small his part is in the book, I never considered him to be a serious contender when the Sup. Actor field is as juicy as ever this year. But I'll have to wait and see the film before I judge further. As an IOU, I can see that happening (for his work in Apes too) but in the position that Hoberman's in, I don't get that kind of logic. Vote for someone as an IOU who has zero chance of winning, or for someone who has an excellent chance of winning (Hoffman, Jones etc.) and would also deserve it.

Oh, he's not a contender at all, I'm just saying that the name will be brought up by some because he wasn't recognized for his work in the LOTR trilogy and some will want to make a point of how great he was/is. His part is minimal in the film (like a 10 minute scene), but (apparently) it's powerful enough for a few articles to be written about it, like last year with Apes.

I also disagree that they should only vote for someone who has a chance at winning. This narrow-minded approach is why we often end up with such boring/predictable nominees/winners. Every once in a while, if you have enough people who go against the grain, someone like Weisz can end up getting recognition. At the very least, even if it's only one vote, it can potentially put a name on the radar that many Oscar voters conform to.

[DaMovieMan]

Originally Posted by Bourne101

Oh, he's not a contender at all, I'm just saying that the name will be brought up by some because he wasn't recognized for his work in the LOTR trilogy. His part is minimal in the film (like a 10 minute scene), but it's big enough for a few articles to be written about it, like last year with Apes. I mean, Hathaway is going to win supporting actress, and that is a very small role (like a few scenes based on what I've heard). The size of supporting roles really doesn't matter, it's all about impact.

I also disagree that they should only vote for someone who has a chance at winning. This narrow-minded approach is why we often end up with such boring/predictable nominees/winners. Every once in a while, if you have enough people who go against the grain, someone like Weisz can end up getting recognition.

I'm behind that too, I guess I didn't stress enough the deserving part. It's about the performance for me, first and foremost, if I was an insider living in Hollywood I would perhaps think more politically and say it's not about performance it's about recognition. I wish I could compare Weisz to the other performances I've seen, Cotillard and Riva especially, but it should really be about who deserves it most. Does Serkis deserve it for The Hobbit alone? If so, great, tick the box. But if you're ticking that box because of past mistakes, you're doing a disservice to someone who's worked hard that year and deserves to be awarded for it.

[Bourne101]

Originally Posted by DaMovieMan

I'm behind that too, I guess I didn't stress enough the deserving part. It's about the performance for me, first and foremost, if I was an insider living in Hollywood I would perhaps think more politically and say it's not about performance it's about recognition. I wish I could compare Weisz to the other performances I've seen, Cotillard and Riva especially, but it should really be about who deserves it most. Does Serkis deserve it for The Hobbit alone? If so, great, tick the box. But if you're ticking that box because of past mistakes, you're doing a disservice to someone who's worked hard that year and deserves to be awarded for it.

It's about performance for me as well. The whole IOU thing is generally a load of shit. However, in the case of Serkis, I think it's important that people bring his name up because what he does is truly under-appreciated. I also imagine that even though his role in The Hobbit is smaller than in LOTR, he's still just as great, which would therefore probably make his performance among the best supporting performances this year.

[Matchbox225]

So, is Beasts Of The Southern Wild in trouble?

During the summer when it was out, it was the best reviewed movie of the year, but it seems to have faded quite a bit, for various reasons. It didn't win the debut feature award, which hurt it.

Is Adapted Screenplay and Actress the only possibilities at this point?

[Hucksta G]

Originally Posted by Matchbox225

So, is Beasts Of The Southern Wild in trouble?

During the summer when it was out, it was the best reviewed movie of the year, but it seems to have faded quite a bit, for various reasons. It didn't win the debut feature award, which hurt it.

Is Adapted Screenplay and Actress the only possibilities at this point?

I still think it could get a best pic nomination.

[Bourne101]

Beasts is definitely still in the hunt for a BP nomination.

[Matchbox225]

Originally Posted by Bourne101

Beasts is definitely still in the hunt for a BP nomination.

I hope so, but I'm still worried. It was the critical darling for a while, but now has been replaced by several other critical darlings, with Zero Dark Thirty leading. The critics will really need to get behind it in some way at the other critics awards coming up. If it were to lose Best Debut Film at the other awards, then I think it's in serious trouble, because I don't think it can pull off A Best Picture win at any of them.

[Bourne101]

Let's take a look...

Right now you have:

Zero Dark Thirty
Lincoln
Argo
Les Miserables
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi

All locked in for a BP nomination. 10 is the maximum, but is unlikely. 9 happened last year, so we'll go with that. That leaves 3 spots open. The other films that I think have the potential to make those 3 spots are:

Django Unchained
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Moonrise Kingdom
Flight
Amour
The Master
The Impossible

And even a few of those seem to be long-shots at this point. Academy voters tend to watch their screeners over the holidays, and I can see Beasts being a favorite among many. I think you'll see it sneak in when all is said and done.

[KiKrusher99]

Yeah I think Beasts will get nominated. Seems like since they've introduced this 10 picture thing they've had the obligatory indie movie, I think Beasts will be their pick this year.

[ilovemovies]

I think The Impossible stands a good chance of getting nominated. It looks incredible from the trailers at least.

[DaMovieMan]

If it's going to be over 5 this year, Beasts will most likely get in. If it's not (because there's a chance for that too...if there's not enough love for movies other than the five locks - ZD30, Lincoln, Les Miz, SLP and Life of Pi - then it will only be the five) then Beasts is out.

A lot of people like it, but the story and the way it's told isn't exactly the stuff that Oscars are made of. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets shafted, but I'd predict it gets in.

Ilovemovies...you're going to love The Impossible, it's right up your alley. It is a great film and I hope it gets nominated but it stands little-to-no chance of winning anything. McGregor's is still the best supporting performance I've seen all year.

[Bourne101]

Originally Posted by DaMovieMan

If it's going to be over 5 this year, Beasts will most likely get in. If it's not (because there's a chance for that too...if there's not enough love for movies other than the five locks - ZD30, Lincoln, Les Miz, SLP and Life of Pi - then it will only be the five) then Beasts is out.

If there were 9 in a rather weak year like last year, there will likely be that many this year. The chances of there only being 5 are slim to none.

And Argo is more locked than SLP and Life of Pi.

[Lazy Boy]

National Board of Review Winners

Best Film: ZERO DARK THIRTY
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, ZERO DARK THIRTY
Best Actor: Bradley Cooper, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
Best Actress: Jessica Chastain, ZERO DARK THIRTY
Best Supporting Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio, DJANGO UNCHAINED
Best Supporting Actress: Ann Dowd, COMPLIANCE
Best Original Screenplay: Rian Johnson, LOOPER
Best Adapted Screenplay: David O. Russell, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
Best Animated Feature: WRECK-IT RALPH
Special Achievement in Filmmaking: Ben Affleck, ARGO
Breakthrough Actor: Tom Holland, THE IMPOSSIBLE
Breakthrough Actress: Quvenzhané Wallis, BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
Best Directorial Debut: Benh Zeitlin, BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
Best Foreign Language Film: AMOUR
Best Documentary: SEARCHING FOR SUGARMAN
William K. Everson Film History Award: 50 YEARS OF BOND FILMS
Best Ensemble: LES MISÉRABLES
Spotlight Award: John Goodman (ARGO, FLIGHT, PARANORMAN, TROUBLE WITH THE CURVE)
NBR Freedom of Expression Award: CENTRAL PARK FIVE
NBR Freedom of Expression Award: PROMISED LAND

[Bourne101]

Originally Posted by Lazy Boy

Best Supporting Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio, DJANGO UNCHAINED
Best Supporting Actress: Ann Dowd, COMPLIANCE
Best Original Screenplay: Rian Johnson, LOOPER

That's what I like to see.

Ten best films:

Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Looper
The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Promised Land
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

And there goes Sasha Stone, throwing down some useless statistics in an attempt to throw everything under the bus and keep Lincoln on a pedestal. Can we not just enjoy the fact that some great films/performances were recognized? Any group that recognizes Ann Dowd deserves mad props. Best supporting female performance of the year by a long shot.

[DaMovieMan]

Originally Posted by Bourne101

If there were 9 in a rather weak year like last year, there will likely be that many this year. The chances of there only being 5 are slim to none.

And Argo is more locked than SLP and Life of Pi.

Ah yeah, forgot about Argo. It's definitely more locked than Life of Pi but more than Silver Linings I'm not sure.

Originally Posted by Bourne101

That's what I like to see.

Ten best films:

Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Looper
The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Promised Land
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

And there goes Sasha Stone, throwing down some useless statistics in an attempt to throw everything under the bus and keep Lincoln on a pedestal. Can we not just enjoy the fact that some great films/performances were recognized? Any group that recognizes Ann Dowd deserves mad props. Best supporting female performance of the year by a long shot.

Looper has no business being on that list. Shutting out The Master, Rust and Bone, Moonrise Kingdom but bigging up Looper? LOL. What a joke.

Stone said the NBR gave a huge boost to Dowd (Cooper, DiCaprio and Looper too) so she's acknowledging it. You make it sound like every one of her tweets is about Lincoln. Ironically enough, I heard about Compliance from her review of it where she says that in a perfect world Ann Dowd should get nominated for her performance. So I think you and Stone have more in common than you care to admit

Oh, but I don't get how Dowd can be considered supporting in Compliance. She's clearly the lead and gives one of the best lead performances of the year, male or female.

[Bourne101]

Originally Posted by DaMovieMan

Looper has no business being on that list.

Disagree. It's the best film on that list, that I've seen anyway.

Originally Posted by DaMovieMan

Stone said the NBR gave a huge boost to Dowd (Cooper, DiCaprio and Looper too) so she's acknowledging it. You make it sound like every one of her tweets is about Lincoln.

The majority of her tweets have at least some underlying reference to Lincoln. If Zero Dark wins, NBR is the kiss of death. If Lincoln wins, she finds a statistic that shows that Lincoln will win. It's all about Lincoln. By January she will all but hate Zero Dark Thirty. You watch.

[Hucksta G]

Originally Posted by Lazy Boy

National Board of Review Winners

Best Film: ZERO DARK THIRTY
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, ZERO DARK THIRTY
Best Actor: Bradley Cooper, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
Best Actress: Jessica Chastain, ZERO DARK THIRTY
Best Supporting Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio, DJANGO UNCHAINED
Best Supporting Actress: Ann Dowd, COMPLIANCE
Best Original Screenplay: Rian Johnson, LOOPER
Best Adapted Screenplay: David O. Russell, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
Best Animated Feature: WRECK-IT RALPH
Special Achievement in Filmmaking: Ben Affleck, ARGO
Breakthrough Actor: Tom Holland, THE IMPOSSIBLE
Breakthrough Actress: Quvenzhané Wallis, BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
Best Directorial Debut: Benh Zeitlin, BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
Best Foreign Language Film: AMOUR
Best Documentary: SEARCHING FOR SUGARMAN
William K. Everson Film History Award: 50 YEARS OF BOND FILMS
Best Ensemble: LES MISÉRABLES
Spotlight Award: John Goodman (ARGO, FLIGHT, PARANORMAN, TROUBLE WITH THE CURVE)
NBR Freedom of Expression Award: CENTRAL PARK FIVE
NBR Freedom of Expression Award: PROMISED LAND

Great list of winners So Zero Dark Thirty looks like the front runner at the moment?

[P1NSTR1PEZ]

Zero Dark Thirty has to be the leader in the clubhouse for all major awards.

Seeing it tomorrow. Super excited.