2012 Academy Awards

[Sammyonweb]

Originally Posted by Tkeyjw

Yes, his biases do cloud his judgment sometimes in predicting the Oscars, but sometimes he goes out on a limb and ends up being right. As I recall, he predicted Crash to win Best Picture at least a month before the ceremony. There was even a thread here called "Ebert has lost his mind" or something like that when he first made that prediction. That being said, he didn't go for any unusual picks this year, so that won't be a factor.

Also, for those who haven't seen it, here is the clip of Emmanuelle Riva winning the BAFTA:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37u99sEhfKY

The reason I'm posting this is because I think people may begin to talk about David O. Russell's obviously bitter reaction to her winning over Jennifer Lawrence. Skip to about 2:44 in the video to see it. I realize he's always had a reputation for being somewhat of a hothead, so it's not really surprising to me, but I just thought I'd post the link in case this turns into a minor controversy (which it might in these final 2 weeks of the campaign). It's worth noting that Jennifer Lawrence doesn't look too happy either, but at least she's not overtly upset like Russell is.

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[Matchbox225]

Originally Posted by Tkeyjw

Also, for those who haven't seen it, here is the clip of Emmanuelle Riva winning the BAFTA:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37u99sEhfKY

The reason I'm posting this is because I think people may begin to talk about David O. Russell's obviously bitter reaction to her winning over Jennifer Lawrence. Skip to about 2:44 in the video to see it. I realize he's always had a reputation for being somewhat of a hothead, so it's not really surprising to me, but I just thought I'd post the link in case this turns into a minor controversy (which it might in these final 2 weeks of the campaign). It's worth noting that Jennifer Lawrence doesn't look too happy either, but at least she's not overtly upset like Russell is.

There wasn't as much enthusiasm as I would have thought, but Riva not being there probably had a lot to do with that. Chastain looked pretty happy for her though. Lawrence and Russell don't surprise me at all with their reactions.

[Lazy Boy]

Originally Posted by Tkeyjw

Also, for those who haven't seen it, here is the clip of Emmanuelle Riva winning the BAFTA:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37u99sEhfKY

The reason I'm posting this is because I think people may begin to talk about David O. Russell's obviously bitter reaction to her winning over Jennifer Lawrence. Skip to about 2:44 in the video to see it. I realize he's always had a reputation for being somewhat of a hothead, so it's not really surprising to me, but I just thought I'd post the link in case this turns into a minor controversy (which it might in these final 2 weeks of the campaign). It's worth noting that Jennifer Lawrence doesn't look too happy either, but at least she's not overtly upset like Russell is.

[urbanlegend23]

What a knob. Very ungracious while he's being filmed. His reaction is probably a bit embarrassing for Lawrence too.

[P1NSTR1PEZ]

Brighten up your Monday - Zach Galifianakis returns with Between Two Ferns - Oscars edition with Jennifer Lawrence, Christoph Waltz, Anne Hathaway and more - ridiculously hilarious - http://wp.me/p2CCWq-2Cd

[Hucksta G]

Yeah I watched the replay of the BAFTA's, last night and O'Russell's reaction was terrible.

[DaMovieMan]

Hahah that Russel and Lawrence reaction doesn't surprise me one bit. I bet it was their team that started that rumour about Chastain hating Lawrence. Really hope that SLP walks away empty handed on the 24th.

Did you guys see the "For Your Consideration" posters? Some of them (especially the Beasts of the Southern Wild one) are jizz-in-your-pants worthy. I posted them on my blog with little comments for each: http://grapevinepics.com/for-your-consideration-poster/

[Hucksta G]

Originally Posted by DaMovieMan

Hahah that Russel and Lawrence reaction doesn't surprise me one bit. I bet it was their team that started that rumour about Chastain hating Lawrence. Really hope that SLP walks away empty handed on the 24th.

Did you guys see the "For Your Consideration" posters? Some of them (especially the Beasts of the Southern Wild one) are jizz-in-your-pants worthy. I posted them on my blog with little comments for each: http://grapevinepics.com/for-your-consideration-poster/

Those are very cool, I'd wish tehy would be their blu-ray covers.

[Bourne101]

LOL at anyone making a big deal about O. Russell's reaction. That's just who the guy is. Honest and hilarious. While it is good to keep it classy at these things, the occasional non-phony reaction isn't hurting anyone (see Jason Reitman's reaction to Avatar winning the Golden Globe).

[Matchbox225]

This shouldn't have any effect at all on the Oscars, but I have to say though, I think this would have been a bigger issue if Riva had been there to accept and Russell made that face.

I was always curious about Jason Reitman's reaction at the globes. I'm wondering if it was more that Avatar won, rather than his film losing. He had to have thought that The Hurt Locker would probably win there.

[Lazy Boy]

Originally Posted by Bourne101

LOL at anyone making a big deal about O. Russell's reaction. That's just who the guy is. Honest and hilarious. While it is good to keep it classy at these things, the occasional non-phony reaction isn't hurting anyone (see Jason Reitman's reaction to Avatar winning the Golden Globe).

One man's honest reaction is another's immature reaction. Remember P.T. Anderson's childish response at the 2000 Oscars, losing Original Screenplay to Alan Ball.

[Ruly2]

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[Tkeyjw]

Originally Posted by Lazy Boy

One man's honest reaction is another's immature reaction. Remember P.T. Anderson's childish response at the 2000 Oscars, losing Original Screenplay to Alan Ball.

I've never seen that clip, but among the noticeably sour reactions I remember, these ones stick out:

Bill Murray's reaction to Sean Penn's win in 2003 (skip to 1:41):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esqwP4wN7gc

Sally Kirkland's reaction to Cher's win in 1987, which she quickly recovers from by smiling after seeming to remember that she's on camera (skip to 1:35):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=raybaccaAaU

And here's my favorite one. Samuel L. Jackson clearly says "Shit!" in disappointment after losing to Martin Landau (skip to 1:14):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pc5uF1I1eNk


Also, I just got around to reading Ebert's full predictions, and I have to say that I'm not sure he knows what he's talking about in regards to certain subjects. On Best Picture, he complains that a lot of people think Les Miserables has a shot at winning. Um...who is predicting that to win? Nobody that I've seen. Then on Best Supporting Actress, he laments about Quvenzhane Wallis not being nominated. Since he didn't mention her at all while discussing Best Actress, I'm not sure if he doesn't realize she is nominated in that category, or if he's suggesting she should have been nominated in the supporting category instead. Either way, what is he talking about?

[Matchbox225]

Originally Posted by Tkeyjw

Also, I just got around to reading Ebert's full predictions, and I have to say that I'm not sure he knows what he's talking about in regards to certain subjects. On Best Picture, he complains that a lot of people think Les Miserables has a shot at winning. Um...who is predicting that to win? Nobody that I've seen. Then on Best Supporting Actress, he laments about Quvenzhane Wallis not being nominated. Since he didn't mention her at all while discussing Best Actress, I'm not sure if he doesn't realize she is nominated in that category, or if he's suggesting she should have been nominated in the supporting category instead. Either way, what is he talking about?

I think it was just an honest mistake on his part regarding Wallis. He probably briefly forgot she was nominated in lead. Besides, I don't know how anybody, including Ebert, can argue for her in Supporting. It would be the biggest category fraud in history.

I still agree though that some of his other observations are odd.

He really thinks Django will come in second for Picture?

[Tkeyjw]

Originally Posted by Matchbox225

I think it was just an honest mistake on his part regarding Wallis. He probably briefly forgot she was nominated in lead. Besides, I don't know how anybody, including Ebert, can argue for her in Supporting. It would be the biggest category fraud in history.

I still agree though that some of his other observations are odd.

He really thinks Django will come in second for Picture?

Yeah, he said that Django would be in second place if we could see the full results, which strikes me as a pretty strange thing to guess. In general, he just doesn't seem as informed about this year's race as he has been in years past. Perhaps it's just that he's not able to attend awards-related functions anymore, which is obviously nothing to hold against him in his condition, but there's no way Django is the runner-up for Best Picture this year. When you take preferential voting into account, yes, it will probably get its fair share of #1 votes, but I frankly wouldn't be surprised if it wound up also getting more last-place votes than any other nominee, since it's possibly the most divisive movie nominated this year (among industry/Academy types anyway...Les Miserables is probably the most divisive among critics). Based on this, Django will probably end up squarely in the middle of the group, although I would personally guess it would be closer to the bottom half than the top half.

He also didn't predict Best Director at all. I wonder why that is. It's especially strange considering that he seems to think Argo, Les Miserables, and Django Unchained are the three leaders in the Best Picture race when none of them are nominated for Best Director.

Anyway, here are my own predictions as of now. I may change my mind about Adapted Screenplay depending on how the WGA goes.

Best Picture- Argo
Best Director- Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Best Actor- Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Best Actress- Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Best Supporting Actor- Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Best Supporting Actress- Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Best Original Screenplay- Amour
Best Adapted Screenplay- Argo
Best Animated Feature- Wreck-It Ralph
Best Documentary Feature- Searching for Sugar Man
Best Foreign Language Film- Amour
Best Editing- Argo
Best Cinematography- Life of Pi
Best Costume Design- Anna Karenina
Best Production Design- Lincoln
Best Makeup/Hairstyling- Les Miserables
Best Visual Effects- Life of Pi
Best Sound Mixing- Les Miserables
Best Sound Editing- Skyfall
Best Original Score- Life of Pi
Best Original Song- Skyfall

So if I'm right, it's going to be a spread-the-wealth kind of night.

Life of Pi- 4
Amour- 3
Argo- 3
Les Miserables- 3
Lincoln- 2
Skyfall- 2

[P1NSTR1PEZ]

Zach Galifianakis is back with part 2 of Between Two Ferns - Oscar edition. This time with Jessica Chastain, Bradley Cooper and Sally Field - http://wp.me/p2CCWq-2Ck

[urbanlegend23]

Originally Posted by Tkeyjw

I've never seen that clip, but among the noticeably sour reactions I remember, these ones stick out:

Bill Murray's reaction to Sean Penn's win in 2003 (skip to 1:41):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esqwP4wN7gc

Sally Kirkland's reaction to Cher's win in 1987, which she quickly recovers from by smiling after seeming to remember that she's on camera (skip to 1:35):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=raybaccaAaU

And here's my favorite one. Samuel L. Jackson clearly says "Shit!" in disappointment after losing to Martin Landau (skip to 1:14):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pc5uF1I1eNk

I can't remember seeing PTA or Reitman's reactions to losing at the Oscars and Globes respectively. Would be cool to see those clips too.

[Matchbox225]

I'm curious about seeing PTA's reaction also.

Original Screenplay that year was pretty stellar actually. That category included Anderson, Mike Leigh, and Charlie Kaufmann, but they went with Alan Ball. Alan Ball has more Oscars than Paul Thomas Anderson and Mike Leigh.

Anway, back to awards reactions. One that I loved was from a few years ago at the BAFTA's. Helena Bonham Carter won Supporting Actress for The King's Speech, and Miranda Richardon sure wasn't pleased. It's at about the :52 second point.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D67l_20iRUI

[urbanlegend23]

She does look pissed. Rightfully so, too. Bonham Carter's performance was completely undeserving of awards attention.

[Strider]

BAFTAs got me thinking. Perhaps this is crazy, but I want to know what everyone thinks about this: What if Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence cancel each other out, and Emmanuelle Riva wins the Oscar for Best Actress? I can't remember if anything like this has happened before, but it would be quite a surprise, and it would cost people a lot of points for Oscar contests/pools.

I'm picking Chastain, Lawrence, and Riva in various contests/pools for two reasons: (1) Just to be on the safe side; (2) I want to win prizes, cash, and most importantly, bragging rights. Haha!

Strider

[Gordon]

Originally Posted by Strider

Perhaps this is crazy, but I want to know what everyone thinks about this: What if Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence cancel each other out, and Emmanuelle Riva wins the Oscar for Best Actress?

It's not crazy at all. You should add in the facts: (1) There's a little bit of a "Lawrence is too young and we shouldn't award it to her this early" feeling, (2) there's so much backlash against ZD30 that it has hit Chastain a bit, (3) there is and always has been a general sentimentally for awarding older actors, esp. with the recognition of how few roles there are, (4) there is a particular sentimentality for Riva because she is well liked and the Oscars fall on her birthday.

Anyway, yeah, your scenario isn't crazy. As a matter of fact if someone came from the future and told me "You have to bet your life on correctly predicting Best Actress and I can tell you as a hint it isn't Lawrence" I would guess Riva over Chastain.

[ilovemovies]

Originally Posted by Matchbox225

Original Screenplay that year was pretty stellar actually. That category included Anderson, Mike Leigh, and Charlie Kaufmann, but they went with Alan Ball. Alan Ball has more Oscars than Paul Thomas Anderson and Mike Leigh.

Alan Ball deserved it. I love American Beauty.

Also, Kaufman deserved to win the Oscar for his screenplays for Adaptation and Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, but I don't think he deserved to be nominated for Being John Malkovich. It's an incredibly overrated movie IMO. It has one great scene of lunacy and that's when Malkovich goes into his own head. But otherwise, I didn't like that movie at all.

[Tkeyjw]

Originally Posted by Gordon

Anyway, yeah, your scenario isn't crazy. As a matter of fact if someone came from the future and told me "You have to bet your life on correctly predicting Best Actress and I can tell you as a hint it isn't Lawrence" I would guess Riva over Chastain.

This. Jessica Chastain winning would actually surprise me at this point. Riva is the main threat to Lawrence, and I think she's a formidable threat at that.

Like I said in an earlier post, I still think Lawrence will win, but I'm predicting Riva anyway. To explain, my head says Lawrence, but my gut says Riva, and besides, if Emmanuelle Riva does win, I want to be one of the people who called it. I try to do at least one big upset prediction every year. They usually don't pay off, but on the few times that I've been right--as I was for both Tilda Swinton and Alan Arkin (go me!)--it was well worth the risk, because I was the only person in my annual Oscar pool who got those right. I'm pretty sure I'm the only one predicting Riva this year, so we'll see how that pans out.

[Gordon]

Originally Posted by Tkeyjw

I'm pretty sure I'm the only one predicting Riva this year, so we'll see how that pans out.

You mean in terms of your Oscar pool? Because I can't speak for anyone else in this thread, but I'm pretty sure I'm picking Riva. It may very well end up being Lawrence, but I can't predict it for personal reasons: I am cognitively incapable of thinking about a 22 year old Best Actress winner.

[Matchbox225]

I agree with you guys above. Chastain is done. BAFTA was her last hope. If anyone beats Lawrence, it will be Riva.

I'm surprised there aren't more actors stumping for her. The only one I know of who has praised her is Nicole Kidman.

Have you guys ready anything anywhere?

[P1NSTR1PEZ]

Go behind the scenes of Oscar hopeful Silver Linings Playbook in this half hour featurette of how the film was made - http://wp.me/p2CCWq-2CS

[Tkeyjw]

Here's an interesting point of comparison in the Best Supporting Actor category that I just noticed:

2004
BAFTA & Golden Globe- Clive Owen, Closer
BFCA- Thomas Haden Church, Sideways
SAG- Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby

The Oscar ultimately went to Morgan Freeman.

2012
BAFTA & Golden Globe- Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
BFCA- Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
SAG- Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Since 2004 was the last time this category was this open, it's worth noting that the four major precursors were split up in the exact same way then as they were this year, and if history repeats itself, then Tommy Lee Jones will win. I'm not saying that's anything to base your prediction on, but I am saying that the SAG alone can be enough to get someone an Oscar, so I don't think Christoph Waltz is necessarily ahead.

[Matchbox225]

Originally Posted by Tkeyjw

Here's an interesting point of comparison in the Best Supporting Actor category that I just noticed:

2004
BAFTA & Golden Globe- Clive Owen, Closer
BFCA- Thomas Haden Church, Sideways
SAG- Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby

The Oscar ultimately went to Morgan Freeman.

2012
BAFTA & Golden Globe- Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
BFCA- Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
SAG- Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Since 2004 was the last time this category was this open, it's worth noting that the four major precursors were split up in the exact same way then as they were this year, and if history repeats itself, then Tommy Lee Jones will win. I'm not saying that's anything to base your prediction on, but I am saying that the SAG alone can be enough to get someone an Oscar, so I don't think Christoph Waltz is necessarily ahead.

I still think Jones will win, so the comparison is there for the winner to have only won SAG.

But I could be wrong and Jones would end up being like Christopher Walken in Catch Me If You Can.



I've actually been doing my own researching. The Master scored three acting nominations, but nothing else. That's unusual, so I decided to see if other films have done it.

Iris did it in 2001 with Judi Dench, Kate Winslet, and Jim Broadbent, who won the Oscar.

In 1981, Only When I Laugh did it with Marsha Mason in Best Actress, James Coco in Supporting Actor, and Joan Hackett in Supporting Actress.


The closest thing we have to The Master's exact nominations is Birdman Of Alcatraz.

Burt Lancaster - Best Actor
Telly Savalas - Best Supporting Actor
Thelma Ritter - Best Supporting Actress

It got one more nomination in Best Cinematography - Black & White.

Maybe I can find more examples, but it would take too long. It doesn't happen very much though.

[Bourne101]

Originally Posted by Tkeyjw

Here's an interesting point of comparison in the Best Supporting Actor category that I just noticed:

2004
BAFTA & Golden Globe- Clive Owen, Closer
BFCA- Thomas Haden Church, Sideways
SAG- Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby

The Oscar ultimately went to Morgan Freeman.

2012
BAFTA & Golden Globe- Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
BFCA- Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
SAG- Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Since 2004 was the last time this category was this open, it's worth noting that the four major precursors were split up in the exact same way then as they were this year, and if history repeats itself, then Tommy Lee Jones will win. I'm not saying that's anything to base your prediction on, but I am saying that the SAG alone can be enough to get someone an Oscar, so I don't think Christoph Waltz is necessarily ahead.

The difference here is that I don't think many people in SAG actually saw Django Unchained before they voted. I think there were a few screenings, but no screeners were sent out. Therefore Waltz wasn't even nominated. I still think Jones will win, but it wouldn't surprise me if Waltz did. He has been gaining some momentum.

[Tkeyjw]

Originally Posted by Bourne101

The difference here is that I don't think many people in SAG actually saw Django Unchained before they voted. I think there were a few screenings, but no screeners were sent out. Therefore Waltz wasn't even nominated. I still think Jones will win, but it wouldn't surprise me if Waltz did. He has been gaining some momentum.

It's very possible, especially if they want to spread the wealth as much as they can this year. Do you realize that it's actually possible this year that the 8 major awards could all go to different films, which would be unheard of in Academy history? That would require a scenario like:

Best Picture- Argo
Best Director- Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Best Actor- Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Best Actress- Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Best Supporting Actor- Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Best Supporting Actress- Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Best Original Screenplay- Django Unchained
Best Adapted Screenplay- Silver Linings Playbook

While I realize it's not likely that all of those results happen (Hoffman in particular seems like a dark horse at this point), they're all at least possible. That would just be unprecedented and crazy if that happened.

[Matchbox225]

I think it is pretty significant that whenever Waltz and Jones went up against each other, Waltz won, BAFTA being a much bigger deal than the Golden Globes.

But Jones has the SAG, so right now I'm still going with him.


How about that Animated Feature category? There's a race there also.

Annie - Wreck-It-Ralph
BAFTA - Brave
BFCA - Wreck-It-Ralph
Golden Globe - Brave
PGA - Wreck-It-Ralph

[Tkeyjw]

I'm glad the Animated Feature category is actually competitive for once, but I will personally be really disappointed if Brave wins. Not that it's a bad movie at all, but it's definitely minor Pixar. I just feel that since Pixar has won this award so many times already, unless Pixar makes a movie that is overwhelmingly considered the best animated film of the year, they should give it to someone else. Granted, both of its main competitors are still under the Disney banner, but really, Brave is the lazy choice this year. It'll probably win, though, because voting in that category is open to the entire Academy membership, and I'm assuming it's the most widely seen of the nominees.

[ilovemovies]

I do think Brave is bad. However, I'd rather it win than The Pirates! Band of Misfits which I hated. It was dreadfully boring.

But Wreck it Ralph is better than both of them put together.

Still need to see Frankenweenie and ParaNorman, but they both look good as well. Not really a fan of that type of animation and I haven't liked Tim Burton's previous animated features (Corpse Bride and Nightmare Before Christmas). But they look pretty good from the trailers.

[Matchbox225]

WGA awards were tonight.

Zero Dark Thirty won Original Screenplay.

Argo won Adapted Screenplay.


Original Screenplay is still a race since Amour and Django were ineligble here.

Argo will probably win Adapted at the Oscars.

[SkyNet]

Originally Posted by ilovemovies

I do think Brave is bad.
Still need to see Frankenweenie and ParaNorman,

I also thought Brave was crap, I am a completist, I buy Blu Rays/ DVD's of bad movies if they fall in with other movies I own (example being: A Good Day To Die Hard I will still buy on Blu Ray, just because I must own all of the Die Hard movies) but even though I own all of the other Pixar movies, I will not be buying Brave, I didnt like it at all.

Paranorman and Frankenweenie I was very let down by, they were okay, but nothing great.



But the reason I came in here was:

Even though Argo has cleaned up at the Guild awards, I still worry that the Academy will award Best Picture to Lincoln, just because that feels more like a Best Picture winner.

I could also see Sally Field take home the statue, but Anne Hathaway should win hands down, I just watched Les Mis again and my god she is perfect!

DDL will win best Actor, without a doubt, and even though I thought he was great, re-watching Flight and Silver Linings, I would much rather see Denzel or Cooper take home the award!

But man, I cant wait for the Oscars! Even though I love football (and am a Die Hard 49er fan (who is from Baltimore no less... i can not escape the shit talk right now!) the Oscars are my Super Bowl! As much as I love the SUper Bowl, normally I have no stake in it, so the Oscars are always the thing I most look forward to! (This year obviously I was eagerly anticipating the Bowl, but when the game ended, oh how pissed I was!!... I dont think that will happen at the Oscars, cuz Argo will win (hopefully) and Affleck will be avenged for being screwed out of the Director trophy)!

[P1NSTR1PEZ]

I really feel alone on an island thinking Joaquin Phoenix should win Best Actor =[

[Gordon]

Originally Posted by P1NSTR1PEZ

I really feel alone on an island thinking Joaquin Phoenix should win Best Actor =[

You should never feel alone when taking part in the hopeful spirit that humanity will do the right thing.

[Hucksta G]

Originally Posted by P1NSTR1PEZ

I really feel alone on an island thinking Joaquin Phoenix should win Best Actor =[

You are not alone, I am here with you.

[Bourne101]

Ditto previous two posts.

Here are my predictions (along with a could win and a should win). I'll probably make a few changes before Sunday, but this is more or less what I'm thinking.

Best Picture
Will Win: Argo
Could Win: Lincoln
Should Win: Django Unchained

Best Director
Will Win: Steven Spielberg – Lincoln
Could Win: Ang Lee – Life of Pi
Should Win: Ang Lee – Life of Pi

Best Actor
Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
Should Win: Joaquin Phoenix – The Master

Best Actress
Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
Could Win: Emmanuelle Riva – Amour
Should Win: Emmanuelle Riva – Amour

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln
Could Win: Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained
Should Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables
Should Win: Amy Adams – The Master

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Argo
Could Win: Lincoln
Should Win: Argo

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Django Unchained
Could Win: Amour
Should Win: Django Unchained

Best Cinematography
Will Win: Life of Pi
Could Win: Skyfall
Should Win: Django Unchained

Best Costume Design
Will Win: Anna Karenina
Could Win: Les Miserables
Should Win: Les Miserables

Best Editing
Will Win: Argo
Could Win: Zero Dark Thirty
Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty

Best Make-Up and Hairstyling
Will Win: Les Miserables
Could Win: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Should Win: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Best Original Score
Will Win: Life of Pi
Could Win: Skyfall
Should Win: Life of Pi

Best Original Song
Will Win: Skyfall
Should Win: Skyfall

Best Production Design
Will Win: Life of Pi
Could Win: Anna Karenina
Should Win: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Best Sound Editing
Will Win: Life of Pi
Could Win: Skyfall
Should Win: Django Unchained

Best Sound Mixing
Will Win: Les Miserables
Could Win: Life of Pi
Should Win: Les Miserables

Best Visual Effects
Will Win: Life of Pi
Should Win: Life of Pi

Best Animated Film
Will Win: Wreck-It Ralph
Could Win: Brave
Should Win: Haven’t seen any of them

Best Documentary
Will Win: Searching for Sugar Man
Could Win: The Gatekeepers
Should Win: Searching for Sugar Man

Best Foreign Language Film
Will Win: Amour
Should Win: Amour

[Tkeyjw]

Following Bourne101's lead, here are my final predictions:

Best Picture
Will win: Argo
Could win: Lincoln
Should win: Amour

Best Director
Will win: Ang Lee
Could win: Steven Spielberg
Should win: Michael Haneke

Best Actor
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Could win (in a VERY unlikely turn of events): Bradley Cooper
Should win: Joaquin Phoenix

Best Actress
Will and should win: Emmanuelle Riva
Could win: Jennifer Lawrence

Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Tommy Lee Jones
Could win: Robert De Niro or Christoph Waltz
Should win: Philip Seymour Hoffman

Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Anne Hathaway
Could win (very unlikely): Sally Field
Should win: Amy Adams

Best Original Screenplay
Will win: Amour
Could win: Django Unchained
Should win: Moonrise Kingdom

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: Argo
Could win: Lincoln
Should win: Beasts of the Southern Wild

Best Foreign Language Film
Will and should win: Amour
Could win (because you never know with this category): No

Best Animated Feature
Will and should win: Wreck-It Ralph
Could win: Brave

Best Documentary Feature
Will win: Searching for Sugar Man
Could win: How to Survive a Plague
Should win: Unfortunately I haven't seen any of the nominees

Best Film Editing
Will and should win: Argo
Could win: Zero Dark Thirty

Best Cinematography
Will win: Life of Pi
Could and should win: Skyfall

Best Costume Design
Will win: Anna Karenina
Could win: Les Miserables
Should win: no opinion

Best Production Design
Will win: Anna Karenina
Could win: Les Miserables
Should win: no opinion

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will win: Les Miserables
Could win: The Hobbit
Should win: No opinion

Best Visual Effects
Will win: Life of Pi
Could win (very unlikely): The Hobbit
Should win: Prometheus

Best Sound Mixing
Will win: Les Miserables
Could win: Any of the them but Lincoln, but mostly Skyfall
Should win: Skyfall

Best Sound Editing
Will and should win: Skyfall
Could win: Life of Pi

Best Original Score
Will win: Life of Pi
Could win: Argo
Should win: Skyfall

Best Original Song
Will and should win: Skyfall
Could win (very unlikely): Ted

I don't have any personal preferences in the short categories since I've seen one nominee between all three categories, but here are my predictions:

Best Animated Short
Will win: Paperman
Could win: Adam and Dog

Best Documentary Short
Will win: Mondays at Racine
Could win: Inocente

Best Live Action Short
Will win: Curfew
Could win: Death of a Shadow

If my predictions are all right (they won't be), then here would be the movies with multiple wins:

Life of Pi- 4 (Director, Cinematography, Visual Effects, Original Score)
Amour- 3 (Actress, Original Screenplay, Foreign Language Film)
Argo- 3 (Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing)
Les Miserables- 3 (Supporting Actress, Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound Mixing)
Anna Karenina- 2 (Costume Design, Production Design)
Lincoln- 2 (Actor, Supporting Actor)
Skyfall- 2 (Sound Editing, Original Song)

I'm not confident at all with my predictions, however, since I have Silver Linings Playbook going home empty-handed, and in a broader sense, I don't have a Weinstein movie winning in any category, which I'm certain will not be the case.