Ebert still thinks Crash will win Best Picture - WTF?

[Lazy Boy]

I think the man is letting his preferences overtake actual logic (like, Brokeback slaughtering Crash and the other films in terms of precursor support), but here are his Oscar predictions.

http://rogerebert.suntimes.com/apps/...CARS/602190301

Ebert's Oscar predictions

BY ROGER EBERT / February 18, 2006

Two years ago "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" won the top Academy Award, while the trilogy marched toward revenues north of a billion dollars. This year, a documentary about penguins marching across Antarctica has so far outgrossed all five best picture nominees. That's the kind of statistic movie critics like to explain, hail, condemn or smother in labyrinthine analysis. I simply find it interesting. It was a year in which Hollywood movies in the traditional style were mostly not very good; the "Rings" wannabe "King Kong" was a splendid movie but perceived as a disappointment, and weekend after weekend box office was "won" by low-rent horror films aimed at teenagers.

The five best picture nominees, however, were (as usual) the kinds of projects passed over by the major studios. We are entering an era when the studios do not often attempt to make Best Pictures, and most of the nominees are generated by independent filmmakers and specialty distributors. This may say more about audiences than it does about studios, which would cheerfully make good movies if they thought they could sell them. Hammered by the idiocy of formula television and video games, a generation is forming that has no feeling for narrative and character. The Oscar nominees represent filmmaking at a high level, but who do you know who has gone to see more than two or three of them?

Best Picture

The likely winner of this year's best picture award is "Crash," a film that was all but written off last September, when Oscar season kicked off at the Toronto Film Festival. Conventional wisdom says that a movie that opens in early May will be forgotten by early June, but "Crash" held and built all summer long, supported by word of mouth and was still doing well in September. It's the kind of film people feel strongly about, and I've heard a curious note in the voices of people discussing it: They sound serious and moved, and as if it made them take a longer look at themselves. They think of it as making an important statement. (See my essay on Page 11D.)

"Brokeback Mountain," another powerful film, was thought to be the Oscar leader, but I sense that its support has faded in recent weeks as voters take another look at "Crash." "Brokeback" has the more purely emotional appeal; it tells the story of two men in love for a lifetime and unable or afraid to act on their feelings. "Crash" stands back. It has scenes of powerful emotion, but because of its large cast, it is more about ideas than lives, especially the idea that in a multicultural society, racism is more complex than we like to think, and doesn't sort its victims into the good and the evil but finds everyone can be a little of both.

Prediction: "Crash"
My preference: "Crash"

Best Actor

Philip Seymour Hoffman has been the front-runner in this category almost since the day the movie premiered. It is an unlikely role: He plays the mannered society creature Truman Capote, a favorite of talk shows and Manhattan social circles, and shows him venturing into the alien land of Kansas to write a book about the brutal murder of a farm family. Researching and writing the book takes years longer than expected, and involves him deeply in the lives of the convicted killers, Dick Hickok and Perry Smith. He's caught in an emotional vise: He loves Perry, but needs for him to die in order for the book to have an ending.

The runners-up are probably Heath Ledger, as the more repressed and fearful of the two cowboys in "Brokeback Mountain," and Joaquin Phoenix, whose performance as Johnny Cash in "Walk the Line" was notable not least for how much he sounded like the singer. I thought Terrence Howard gave the year's most complex and nuanced performance in "Hustle & Flow," as a pimp who wants to become a rap artist, and finds his life and his attitudes toward women transformed by the experience of art.

Prediction: Philip Seymour Hoffman
Preference: Terrence Howard

Best actress

Reese Witherspoon, hands down. Not only because she is funny, touching and convincing as June Carter Cash in "Walk the Line," but because the category offers few strong contenders. Felicity Huffman is said to have a good chance for "Transamerica," in which she plays a man who hits a speed bump (a son he didn't know about) just before he's scheduled for gender reassignment surgery. It's a virtuoso performance, but on the day the nominations were announced, the movie had grossed less than $1 million at the box office, and it is still under $1.5 million. Has it really involved moviegoers?

Charlize Theron was magnificent in "North Country," but won the category just two years ago. Judi Dench and Keira Knightley have not inspired a lot of buzz.

Prediction: Reese Witherspoon
Preference: Reese Witherspoon, with a nod to Charlize Theron or Keira Knightley

Best supporting actor

If it's a "Crash" year, and it may be, Matt Dillon could win as the racist cop with a tortured private life. Dillon has been acting since he was 15, has been in more than 40 movies, is almost always good and is well-liked. George Clooney, however, is said to be the front-runner, not only for his CIA man in "Syriana" but because of roll-over sentiment for his supporting role and co-writing credit for "Good Night, and Good Luck," and his unbilled role as a producer of that movie.

There is a theory that actors sometimes win because the Academy regrets having passed them over for an earlier role; Paul Giamatti, nominated as a loyal boxing manager in "Cinderella Man," should have been nominated last year for "Sideways," and that may help him, but "Cinderella Man" has faded after its June opening. Jake Gyllenhaal may win if Heath Ledger does, but if not, probably not; William Hurt's role in "A History of Violence" was small and brilliant; the nomination reflects that.

Prediction: George Clooney
Preference: Matt Dillon

Best supporting actress

Traditionally a wild-card category, in which the voters select a dark horse. This year that may mean an Oscar for newcomer Amy Adams, whose work in "Junebug" is the most effective and in some ways most difficult performance in any category this year. The key question: Have enough voters seen it? She plays a pregnant young wife in a tragicomically dysfunctional family, and it's her love that keeps the other characters from spinning out of control.

Conventional wisdom says Rachel Weisz has charmed a lot of voters with her work on behalf of "The Constant Gardener," in which she is indeed very good. Some feel Michelle Williams might win for "Brokeback Mountain," but if the cowboys lose, and I think they might, I doubt she'll win. Catherine Keener's work in "Capote" is as wonderful as her work always is, but peripheral to the movie's main line, and Frances McDormand was powerful in "North Country," but does the film have much momentum?

Prediction: Amy Adams
Preference: Amy Adams

Best director

The most reliable Oscar predictor is the Directors Guild of America Award; the director who wins it almost always goes on to win the Oscar, and so that means the best director this year will be Ang Lee for "Brokeback Mountain." If "Crash" wins as best picture, and I expect it will, its writer-director Paul Haggis will nevertheless be seen by voters as a newcomer, and a vote for Lee in this category will be a way to honor "Brokeback." The dark horse may be George Clooney; "Good Night, and Good Luck" has won genuine admiration for its strong, clear message and its distinctive black-and-white style.

Prediction: Ang Lee
Preference: Paul Haggis

Best animated film

An interesting category this year because there are no traditional Disney or DreamWorks entries, and all three nominees use the traditional technique of stop-action animation, which in an age of computers is considered almost quaintly old-fashioned.

Hayao Miyazaki is the most-respected of living animators, but his "Howl's Moving Castle" was not among his best work. "Tim Burton's Corpse Bride" found comedy and even sweetness in the most unlikely material. But the winner will be "Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit," a head-on collision between eccentricity and whimsy. "Stand back! There may be a large rabbit dropping!"

Prediction: "Wallace & Gromit: Curse of the Were-Rabbit"
Preference: "Wallace & Gromit: Curse of the Were-Rabbit"

Best foreign film

I have seen two of the nominees, "Paradise Now" from Palestine, and "Tsotsi," from South Africa. That puts me at a disadvantage, since I can't factor the quality of the other three films into my prediction, but on the basis of the power of "Tsotsi," I think it has a good chance of winning. Following last year's South African nominee "Yesterday," it dramatizes that country's filmmaking renaissance. And it's unusual in showing a character undergoing a deep change of heart in a situation that could have been, but is not, sentimental. A criminal (Tsotsi) played by Presley Chweneyagae, had a grim childhood, has grown into a killer, and then unexpectedly comes into possession of an infant that forces him to look at his life in a new way.

Prediction: "Tsotsi"
Preference: "Tsotsi," pending seeing the other nominees.

Best documentary

This category is marred by the inexplicable absence of Werner Herzog's "Grizzly Man" which didn't even make the list of 15 finalists. I've been trying for weeks to uncover the inside story on why Herzog was passed over, but there doesn't seem to be a "Hoop Dreams"-type scandal, so I suppose we must mark it down to simple bloody-minded wrong-headedness on the part of the committee.

Of the nominees, "March of the Penguins" is the presumed winner, not only because of its record-breaking box office performance but because, darn it, people like the movie. So do I, but I like "Murderball" more. It's the story of astonishing sports heroes: Champions of full-contact quadriplegic wheelchair rugby. If enough voters have seen it, "Murderball" has a good chance. "Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room" is also a great doc, essentially convicting the corporation and its weasels of terrorism, but the penguins are likely to waddle right up to the Oscar. Let's hope they aren't still onstage next year, waiting for it to hatch.

Prediction: "March of the Penguins"
Preference: "Murderball"

Best original screenplay

Here I think Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco have a good chance of winning with "Crash," a screenplay that cuts among some 20 major characters and handles melodrama and coincidence with the aplomb of Charles Dickens. To tell a story so complex and yet so clear and affecting is a worthy accomplishment. Stephen Gaghan's "Syriana" tells a story equally complex, but deliberately not as clear, and is also deserving. I have great admiration for the ruthless architecture of Woody Allen's "Match Point," the heartfelt insight of Noah Baumbach's "The Squid and the Whale," and the passion of George Clooney and Grant Heslov's "Good Night, and Good Luck," but I doubt they have a chance.

Prediction: "Crash"
Preference: "Crash" or "Syriana"

Best adapted screenplay

Here's where "Brokeback Mountain" will be honored, for the screenplay by Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana. Reading McMurtry's Lonesome Dove trilogy last summer, I was struck by the loneliness of the lives of his cowboys, their loyalty to one another, and the tangential nature of their romantic relationships with women. "Brokeback Mountain" seems like a logical extension of some of their characters.

The other four nominees (Dan Futterman for "Capote"; Jeffrey Caine for "The Constant Gardener"; Josh Olson for "A History of Violence," and Tony Kushner and Eric Roth for "Munich") seem unlikely to win, not so much because of anything they lack, but because "Brokeback Mountain" has so much.

Prediction: "Brokeback Mountain"
Preference: "Brokeback Mountain"

Other predictions (except for documentary short and live action short, where I haven't yet seen the nominees):

Art direction: "King Kong"

Cinematography: "Good Night, and Good Luck"

Film editing: "Crash"

Sound mixing: "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe"

Sound editing: "King Kong"

Original score: "Brokeback Mountain"

Original song: "Travelin' Thru" from "Transamerica"

Costume design: "Pride & Prejudice"

Makeup: "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe"

Visual effects: "King Kong"

This year's Oscar ceremony will be Sunday, March 5, with Jon Stewart of "The Daily Show" as host. My own favorite moment is likely to be the honorary Oscar for the great director Robert Altman.

[Digifruitella]

Crash will not win

Brokeback is going to win this year.

Ang Lee will win Best Director.

best original screenplay will probably go to "Crash" though.

[HeavyFknMetal]

My own favorite moment is likely to be the honorary Oscar for the great director Robert Altman.

Ditto Mr. Ebert, ditto.

[silentasylum]

glad to hear the great Robert Altman getting recoginition....

I know Brokeback Mountain is making more money and it appeals to an older crowd but Crash was seen by a broader audience. I dont think it will win but if it does I could understand why.

[brodeurnumber1]

Brokeback's support has faded? Uhm, what? Of the nominees, Crash is LEAST likely to win.

[Cosimo]

Crash is extremely overrated. The locksmith was the only character worth watching, brilliant actor! History Of Violence is the best film of the year. Sympathy for Lady Vengeance is genius as was Downfall

[silentasylum]

it will be either Crash or Brokeback mountain any other film doesnt really stand a chance. Brokeback Mountain does have an advantage in that it was released more around the awards season, coincidence? who knows.

[ilovemovies]

Originally posted by brodeurnumber1
Brokeback's support has faded? Uhm, what? Of the nominees, Crash is LEAST likely to win.

Actually I think Capote is the least likely movie to win. And I would definately argue that if it weren't for Brokeback Mountain, Crash would be the most likely to win best picture.

[Cosimo]

brokeback mountain will get the oscar

[Pulp_Joker]

I had the feeling right after the nominations were announced that Crash could sneek away with the Oscar. After the noms, all the tv hosts kept pumping for Crash, saying they think Crash should win. It was at that moment that I felt Crash was a really serious contender. And I have read too many articles talking about Crash's chances. At the beginning it was Brokeback completely. Now, it's either Brokeback or Crash, plain and simple. The other 3 have no shot in hell. So I can understand where Roger is coming from. I still think Brokeback is going to take it, but Crash is going to puch it big time.

[ChemicalRomance]

Agreed Pulp, it is very much a two horse race between Crash and Brokeback Mountain. The other three are far behind, but I have to disagree with the usually spot on Ebert here. The press giant that is "gay cowboys" is too hot, and too "well done" to not win the Best Picture statue. Crash is the one chasing up the rear (no pun intended) of Brokeback Mountain, but the gay cowboys will prevail still.

[ilovemovies]

Ebert likes Crash more and I think that's why he's predicting it. He tends to let his love for a movie get in the way of his judgement with this sort of thing.

I remember in the 2000 Oscar race, the race for best actor was between Russell Crowe in Gladiator and Tom Hanks in Cast Away. And he predicted Pollock because of how much he loved the movie. He thought those other two would somehow split the vote enabling Ed Harris to win. He was wrong and I knew he'd be.

Crash is definately BBM's main competition, but it won't be enough.

[Lazy Boy]

I think the media is mostly spinning Crash as a potential upset because this race is getting so damn boring. Most odds are on BBM for the win. Crash does have its followers and a stronger surge coming into the game, but I think BBM will take it, maybe because voters like it or due to apathetic boredom, they have to go with the winner. Like, "Oh, it's gonna win, nothing will beat it, might as well write it down on the voting ballot."

[JCPhoenix]

Like the people at Oscarwatch have said, CRASH stirs up a lot of emotion in people - it's one of those pictures that people really do seem to love whereas BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN, it seems, is more admired (it has its share of passionate fans, but Crash seems to have it beat in that sense)...

To that end, there is a real possibility that Crash can take the prize - it's been 'the little engine that could' this year. If Munich, Capote, or Good Night and Good Luck win Best Picture, I will be very, very surprised though it wouldn't be an altogether bad surprise - Munich and Capote have their merits (I haven't seen Good Night and Good Luck).

But the race is, like others have said, really between Brokeback and Crash - and I think the gap between them is narrower than some people think. I don't think Ebert is a fool for predicting Crash as a winner, and I don't think he's saying Crash out of his own preference. Personally, I see it as the only other valid prediction other than Brokeback right now - anyone who votes other than that (whether the others actually do win Best Pic or not) is insane.

Right now, the chances still lean more towards Brokeback, thankfully...if Crash wins, I'm probably gonna end up smashing the TV to bits (for those who don't know my thoughts on this film, suffice to say it is the film I've vented about the most in the past year)

[HHH123007]

Ebert also gave Into The Blue 4 stars IIRC...

[BubbaStrangelove]

Oriiginally posted by Lazy Boy
I think the man is letting his preferences overtake actual logic

Originally posted by ilovemovies
Ebert likes Crash more and I think that's why he's predicting it. He tends to let his love for a movie get in the way of his judgement with this sort of thing.

In 1991, he said Dances With Wolves would win, but he prefered Goodfellas. In 1994, he said Forrest Gump would win, but he prefered Pulp Fiction.

I just remember the passion he used on Letterman when correctly predicting "Dances With Wolves."

The words still ring:

"Oh, Dances with Wolves will win, but it should be Goodfellas."

Even in these predictions, he lists who he prefers and who we predicts. I'm not sure how you can convincingly say that he lets his judgement of his movie "get in the way." He has a pretty high correct prediction rate, and he has very solid reasons for thinking Crash will win - he had an even more solid reason for thinking Pollack would win --- And in all fairness, many critics didn't think Crowe deserved the award for Gladiator.


EDIT: I just went over the rogerebert.com, and it's worth noting that he gave both Crash AND Brokeback his highest 4 star rating, which further confounds the idea that he's only predicting Crash because he likes it so much better.



My thoughts on the Best Picture winner:

I've been leaning with Crash myself, mostly because I'm not sold that Brokeback is the run-away critic smash people are hailing it as. Aside from The Hulk, this has been one of Ang Lee's lessor received "critical favorites."

When Brokeback was in limited release, it was being hailed as Lee's new masterpiece, but once its release spread, more detractors surfaced.

The opposite has been true for Crash, as Ebert has pointed out. Brokeback had lots of pre-release buzz, but Crash is getting all of the late buzz --- with the movie having been out for months of DVD, the actors are only now making spots on the talk show circuits.

Granted, I think that Brokeback will most likely win, but I'm not sold that Crash is a dark horse, or that there is no good reason to think Crash can't win. I find Crash to be the least like the other movies in terms of scope and theme, and I question if Crash will have the stronger base.

Crash is such a large film in scope, with so many people attached to the cast, and Brokeback is trully to smaller quieter film. The Academy has not been kind to Ang Lee, so there maybe some payback due on the other hand.

I can't wait for the awards night though. I truly look forward to these things.

[Lazy Boy]

Originally posted by BubbaStrangelove
I've been leaning with Crash myself, mostly because I'm not sold that Brokeback is the run-away critic smash people are hailing it as. Aside from The Hulk, this has been one of Ang Lee's lessor received "critical favorites."

When Brokeback was in limited release, it was being hailed as Lee's new masterpiece, but once its release spread, more detractors surfaced.

Seriously? The critics were falling over themselves trying to see who could give the biggest adjectives and raves to BBM during its initial run -- I don't think it was less received. It has received 11 wins for picture from various critics groups and guilds, so it is the dominant popular favorite.

But, I hope you're right that it doesn't turn out to be a one-person show. My preference would not be for a Crash win, however, but a Munich one, but I'm smart enough to realize that, at best, it'll go home empty handed.

More people are jumping on the Crash bandwagon, but there are just as many still passionate for BBM - check out Oscarwatch to see the incessant bickering between the two camps. I'd love an upset, but I still think Brokeback will win.

BUT...The Aviator was pronounced as Marty's big comeback last year, all the hooplah surrounding its inevitable win, it won the Golden Globe AND the Producer's Guild, so it appeared locked up, yet in the other corner we had the ultimate underdog, Million Dollar Baby, come out fighting (and Ebert was pushing for it repeatedly) until it actually pulled out the win. Like BBM, it was the emotional nominee of the five.

[William Munny]

While I like and respect Mr. Ebert greatly, I think he is allowing his personal preference for "Crash" get in the way of his predictions. It's either that or he's hoping that Academy voters will read his webpage.

[AceD]

I think the people (not just Ebert) who are predicting Crash will upset Brokeback are thinking about the year that Shakespeare in Love inexplicably beat out Saving Private Ryan. It seemed that the Acadamy got sick of hearing all of the praise SPR was getting and decided to rock the boat a little.

I don't think ANY film has a chance to win other than Brokeback and Crash, though, and if I was forced to place a bet I do believe that Brokeback is a strong favorite to win. But I think Crash could sneak in and take it.

[Shockwave]

Crash deserves to win, but due to sad reality it doesnt have a chance in hell.

[zeppelin]

Brokeback Mountain is still the clear front-runner, in my eyes, but I wouldn't be shocked if Crash pulled an upset. I actually think Crash has more support from Hollywood than Brokeback Mountain does. Actors have praised it endlessly. Brokeback has pretty much everyone else's vote though, so it's still going to win, I think. But stranger things have happened than if Crash were to win Best Picture.

[ChemicalRomance]

Now that I've actually seen Brokeback Mountain, I must say that it is simply a much much better film than Crash. I know believe, and hope, that Brokeback Mountain will take home Best Picture. The more I think about Crash and it having a chance to win the more annoyed I am. Like JCPhoenix, I am so damn sick of the movie.

[floydtheater07]

Crash doesn't have a chance. "Brokeback" will win.

"Munich" deserves to win. Better than any other American film this year by a mile.

[AceD]

"I am so damn sick of the movie."

Isn't that what we want to avoid? Just kidding.

But seriously: had you seen Brokeback in May and heard it's praises sung so often, would your thoughts be reversed? Just wondering.

""Munich" deserves to win. Better than any other American film this year by a mile."

I actually put it behind Murderball and Junebug, but I do agree that it's the best of the nominees, even though it has no chance.

[drago25]

I usually give Ebert plenty of respect, but Jesus. I'm so sick of Crash, I watched it twice and was equally unimpressed each time, its one of the most overrated movies in the last couple years, in my opinion.

[Squid Vicious]

Originally posted by floydtheater07
"Munich" deserves to win. Better than any other American film this year by a mile.

Indeed. It's unfortunate that Munich has been getting so little attention (at least when compared to Brokeback Mountain). I think it's not only the best movie of 2005, but possibly the best movie made in this decade so far, and Spielberg's second best movie (just behind Schindler's List).

As much as I liked Crash (I gave it 8/10), I don't really think it deserved a Best Picture nomination. I'd still agree, though, that on the off-chance that Brokeback Mountain doesn't win Best Picture, it'll probably go to Crash.

[Fisting Ackbar]

Originally posted by zeppelin
I actually think Crash has more support from Hollywood than Brokeback Mountain does. Actors have praised it endlessly.

What, did Sandra Bullock tell all her friends to go see it?

But seriously: had you seen Brokeback in May and heard it's praises sung so often, would your thoughts be reversed? Just wondering.

It's more that people (including myself) don't think CRASH is worthy of the awards that the movie is nominated for. The time of year that it was released shouldn't have anything to do with that.

I can understand the recent hype of BROKEBACK rubbing people in a wrong way (and in a wrong area, lol pun), but I'd argue that it's a much more deserving film.

[notchreturns]

Crash is so tired and overplayed.

I can think of like 20 movies in the same vein that are about 20x better.

[Lazy Boy]

Originally posted by notchreturns
Crash is so tired and overplayed.

I can think of like 20 movies in the same vein that are about 20x better.

Magnolia, Grand Canyon, Do the Right Thing....

All better movies than Crash, yet none of them were nominated for anything major outside of Original Screenplay and some acting nods.

I wish the media would talk more about Munich, but that ship has sailed.

[AngelDust06]

as much as I feal that Crash should win the oscar for best picture, I doubt that it will. I think Brokeback Mountain or Capote will get it.

[bigred760]

I admire Ebert for going with the upset, but I think Brokeback Mountain will come out on top in the end. It has all the momentum, it has not fallen off - like Mr. Ebert has implied, and like the guy said Crash was released months ago and only word of mouth has kept it going. Don't get me wrong, I liked Crash a whole hell of a lot better than BBM, but in the end the latter will come out on top.

I'm suprised that he thinks Ang Lee will win Director, while Crash wins Best Picture. That rarely happens.

I'm suprised he went with Clooney as Supporting Actor; I personally think that Clooney will, unfortunately, walk away empty-handed (hell, even he said he thinks that'll happen). I'm going with Giamatti to take it away.

The rest, I pretty much agree with him.

[The Heart Collector]

Brokeback Mountain will win Best Picture. No doubt in my mind about it. It's seen as a prestigious movie. Crash is seen merely as a movie that just happens to have acclaim. Brokeback is seen more like 'lets give ang lee his oscar already, nigga's been making good movies for a while'.

[BubbaStrangelove]

Originally posted by bigred760
II'm suprised that he thinks Ang Lee will win Director, while Crash wins Best Picture. That rarely happens.

I think it happened with TRAFFIC, and this year reminds me of that year - no single super strong film seems like it will sweep. I think Traffic was unusual because it won screenplay and director, which always indicates a best picture win.

However, best director and picture being split isn't totally rare - happened in 2003, 2001, 1999 & 1990 --- every 4 years, on average.

I"m really sure though that Lee should get it for Brokeback, regardless if it wins best picture or not.

Can't wait! You still in Oscar watching mode, bigred?

[Eragon]

I think that Brokeback might be like Aviator next year and win a couple of awards but then a movie you won't expect to win will actually win like how Million Dollar Baby did. Also pretty much whichever movie gets Director award wins Best Picture.
If you take in all the circumstances, I think Crash should win and if the same thing happens again, Crash will win.

[bigred760]

Originally posted by BubbaStrangelove
I think it happened with TRAFFIC, and this year reminds me of that year - no single super strong film seems like it will sweep. I think Traffic was unusual because it won screenplay and director, which always indicates a best picture win.

However, best director and picture being split isn't totally rare - happened in 2003, 2001, 1999 & 1990 --- every 4 years, on average.

Oh I know it happens, moreso nowadays than in the past - as you exemplified (right use of the word?). The most infamous one, in my opinion anyway, was when Saving Private Ryan lost out to Shakespeare in Love while Spielberg walked away with Best Director.

Can't wait! You still in Oscar watching mode, bigred?

Of course . Saw Unforgiven and The Godfather this weekend, along with Best Pic nominee Adventures of Robin Hood on TCM. Good times, good times.

[< a c e >]

He didn't seem very excited about Phoenix. Seriously, I think this guy deserves the Oscar. Too bad he doesn't believe in these pre-oscar campaigns.

GO PHOENIX! GO WITHERSPOON!

[zeppelin]

Originally posted by Eragon
I think that Brokeback might be like Aviator next year and win a couple of awards but then a movie you won't expect to win will actually win like how Million Dollar Baby did.

Actually, Million Dollar Baby was the heavy favorite last year. It won all the precusor awards, and had all the buzz. The Aviator winning would have been an upset. Even though some people were predicting that Scorsese would win Best Director, it was pretty much agreed on that it wouldn't win Best Picture. And it didn't.

[chinton]

The only two films that are worthy of being there in the Best Picture category for me is the excellent Capote which it seems a lot of you guys are forgetting h ow powerful that film is. The other one would be the great Good Night And Good Luck .

I hope Woody Allen wins. I really liked Match Point but also I just have a preference to him.


Im amazed so many have let Capote slip by. I was really impressed with that film.

[Sigur509]

I think Crash is going to win best picture, and surpirse us all.


WTF?

[Andrew Ratto]

.