#1  
Old 02-18-2008, 09:36 PM
star trek 11 vs Wolverine:box office battle

from iesb.net

With Star Trek's sudden shift to a summer of 2009 release, the crew of the Enterprise is going head to head with everybody's favorite mutant. So who's making the mistake? The IESB investigates.


Back in the day, Star Trek and X-Men were the best of friends. Paramount even had an imprint with Marvel Comics in the late 90's that published Trek comics and there was, as silly as it sounds, a surprisingly good Star Trek/X-Men crossover (followed immediately by a less good Next Generation/X-Men crossover).

Bryan Singer, the man who brought X-Men to the screen, is a self-professed Star Trek fan, even going so far as to cameo in Star Trek: Nemesis. He describes his maybe-one-day Superman sequel as equivalent to The Wrath of Khan and, of course, pulled in Jean-Luc Picard for the role of Xavier. Check out the closing monologues of Khan and X-Men 2 and see if you can spot the serious homaging going on.

Despite some past camaraderie, though, Trek's new release date of 5/8/09 has it hitting exactly one week after X-Men's Wolverine spinoff and as cool as it may seem to have such a jam-packed summer, this is bad news for genre fans.

When I was a boy, Trek movies came out just before Christmas. Seven of the previous ten films hit in either November or December. While I can't suggest that Abrams' Trek reconsider for the sake of my personal nostalgia, I do think there's some evidence that a May release is a bad move.

Let's look at the numbers:

The very first Star Trek film opened in December of 1979 to the domestic tune of $82.2 million and $56.8 in foreign markets ($139 million total worldwide). That, by today's standards, rounds out to a truly strong showing of $223.5 million domestic (about $375 million worldwide). A franchise is born.

From there, Trek moves to the summer where, three years later, The Wrath of Khan is released in June. It hits $78.9 million domestic, $17.9 foreign for $96.8 total worldwide ($183.1 million, adjusted domestic, $224.6 worldwide total). That's followed by The Search for Spock two years later with $76.5 million domestic, $10.5 million foreign for $87 million worldwide ($155.2 million / $175.7 adjusted). Both are successful but Trek's feeling the diminishing returns with each film.

The Voyage Home hits another two years later but the switch is made back to the end of the year. The result? $109.7 million domestic, $23.3 million foreign for $133 million worldwide ($196.9 / $238.1 adjusted). The point being that a November opening resulted in a bigger box office…and that people really like whales.

But Paramount didn't learn its lesson and bumped Trek back to summertime for the awful Shatner-directed The Final Frontier. That film made only $52.2 million domestic, $17.3 million foreign for $70 million worldwide ($89.7 / $119 adjusted), less than half that of the previous outing.

So the lesson was learned; Star Trek movies open better at the end of the year. The next five films all opened in November or December and, with the exception of the even-worse-than-Star-Trek-5 tenth film, each was a bona fide box office success.

Despite the fact that Star Trek: Nemesis opened in December of 2002, its take of only $43.4 million domestic and $23.6 million foreign for $67 million worldwide proves another sad truth; People aren't going to pay to see a Star Trek film just because it has Star Trek in the title.

X-Men, on the other hand...

The X-Men films have, by comparison, blown Trek out of the water. The first film opened to $157.3 million. X-Men 2 grossed $214.9 million and -- the real kicker -- X-Men 3 hit $234.4 million.

For X-Men, that's only domestic. The numbers just about double when you look at foreign grosses for the three films of $139, $192, and $225 million, respectively. That brings worldwide totals to $296 million for the first film, $407 million for X-Men 2 and $459 million for X-Men 3. For whatever reason, Trek has always failed to be a real performer on the foreign market.

As a fan of both franchises, I'll go out on fanboy limb and say that X-Men 3 and Star Trek: Nemesis are about as poorly made they could possibly have been. That's a fact that killed Trek at the box office and bounced harmlessly off X-Men 3 as its domestic gross rose meteorically.

Imagine for a second that Wolverine and Abrams' Star Trek are nothing but crap. (And, in both cases, I think that's going to be far from the case.) History seems to say that Wolverine could still be a hit just because it has X-Men in the title. Star Trek's a title that -- for a bad movie -- could alienate new audiences and -- as a revamp -- longstanding fans as well.

So why May, Star Trek? There's two distinct explanations:

Best case scenario, Star Trek is the most amazing and impressive film anyone has ever seen. The studio is so incredibly confident in it that all other summer blockbusters can just get out of its way as it becomes the biggest movie of all time.

I really, really wish that were the case but somehow, I doubt it and explanation number two is probably a little closer to the truth:

There's no way the film is going to be done by this Christmas. There's rumors that the budget has grown immensely and that Paramount is looking a final price tag of north of $200 million dollars. Star Trek -- as much as I love it -- has the potential to bomb and bomb hard. If the whispers are true of a budget that high, this film is only going to a real success with franchise following it.

If it is a matter of waiting so that what goes on-screen is the best possible Trek film, I'm all for it but I'd be inclined to wait even longer if that's what's best for Trek. I'd love to see it still hit this December but if the move is a necessity rather than a marketing gimmick, even December of 2009 seems preferential.
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  #2  
Old 02-18-2008, 09:42 PM
Trek.

No contest.
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  #3  
Old 02-18-2008, 10:35 PM
I'm definitely more excited about Star Trek.

I'm sure Wolverine would be cool, but I'd actually prefer another X-Men flick to a Wolverine spinoff.
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  #4  
Old 02-18-2008, 10:47 PM
I'm more excited about Wolverine; he's one of the coolest movies characters to come out in the past decade.

Star Trek hasn't been good for a while, and restarting the franchise doesn't guarantee it will be any good.

I'll end up seeing both, but I'm looking forward more to Wolverine.
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  #5  
Old 02-18-2008, 10:50 PM
I still don't get the hate for Star Trek: Nemesis. I thought that was a really great movie. I really don't get why people didn't care for that. It's my third favorite Trek movie after Wrath of Khan and First Contact and just slightly a head of Undiscovered Country.
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  #6  
Old 02-19-2008, 01:31 AM
There's a lot of factors to consider.

In term's of franchises, X-Men currently has a bigger fanbase than Star Trek.

I think it will depend soley on hype and trailers. The trailers need to turn heads and make people go "Wow, I can't wait to see that!" Star Trek needs that trailer. It needs a trailer that can appeal new and old fans. A trailer that can reel in new fans, while not leaving out the hardcore fans. Paramount has a lot of work ahead of itself to sell this movie to everyone. If they succeed, I can picture maybe a $200 million plus gross. It's still too early to tell what the future holds, but let's hope it's bright.

X-Men will have no trouble getting in audiences. The Wolverine name itself will bring in people. Hype is already huge with various rumors floating about. It could have a sub-par trailer and people will still come just to see Wolverine. Fox really has nothing to worry about, unless the film gets shit reviews.

Too early to tell what the future holds, but I can't wait for next summer.
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  #7  
Old 02-19-2008, 01:52 AM
As far as I go, I'm more pumped for Wolverine.
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  #8  
Old 02-19-2008, 01:53 AM
their opening box office will be exactly the same...

duh.


mark my words. MARK THEM!
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  #9  
Old 02-19-2008, 02:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ilovemovies View Post
I still don't get the hate for Star Trek: Nemesis. I thought that was a really great movie. I really don't get why people didn't care for that. It's my third favorite Trek movie after Wrath of Khan and First Contact and just slightly a head of Undiscovered Country.
Alot of the time people hate something merely because they either don't understand it fully, or they couldn't be bothered trying to understand it. This also applies to movies. And Star Trek falls into that category. People just hate it for no apparent reason. They just say - "Star Trek? I hate that shit!" Why? ...Um, dunno really. I just do.

Star Trek Nemesis was well written and well made. And I personally don't give a rat's ass if someone hates it. Good for them. lol To me, Trek is awesome!. I guess it's totally up to personal taste. A movie can be almost perfect in every way, but there is always someone who won't like it. Right?

Anywho, back on topic. Trek for me. The Wolverine movie looks meh at best. But at least we have the rigth lead in it.
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  #10  
Old 02-19-2008, 03:04 AM
Rumour has it that STAR TREK 11 cost upwards from $150 mill thats withouts ads and prints .so it`ll have to bring in a lot of new fans !.

i just don`t see it making anywhere near $200 mill in the US.Oh well we will see.
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  #11  
Old 02-19-2008, 03:51 AM
Trek is dead, and this new film will be the death rattle...
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  #12  
Old 02-19-2008, 03:54 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JJFlamingo View Post
Trek is dead, and this new film will be the death rattle...
Trek will never die...
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  #13  
Old 03-03-2008, 05:36 PM
Trek. As much as I love Hugh Jackman I've always thought Wolverine was an overrated character and all the X-Men flicks put way too much focus on him. The only reason I'm planning on seeing it is Ryan Renyolds as Deadpool
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  #14  
Old 03-03-2008, 05:40 PM
I'm much more excited for WOLVERINE, STAR TREK is boring.
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  #15  
Old 03-03-2008, 06:26 PM
Wolverine will win the box office battle. Star Trek is a nerd's domain and there aren't enough Trekkies to stand up to X-Men, which everyone finds accessible.
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  #16  
Old 03-03-2008, 06:30 PM
Star Trek for me

and to answer ilovemovies i agree i don't get the hate for Nemesis
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  #17  
Old 03-03-2008, 06:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Le_Big_Mac View Post
Wolverine will win the box office battle. Star Trek is a nerd's domain and there aren't enough Trekkies to stand up to X-Men, which everyone finds accessible.
I'm thinking that the Star Trek producers are hoping to find a younger audience with this relaunch, while still pleasing the Trekkies. It'll be close, methinks.
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  #18  
Old 03-03-2008, 10:14 PM
star trek for me. not ahuge fan of the movies and i've never watched the shows, but the new one has me intrigued. i havent liked any of the x-men movies, so i'm not too excited for wolverine.
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