#1  
Old 07-04-2011, 05:58 PM
2011 Academy Awards

I know, it's a bit early, especially given the prolonged, nasty season we had last year. The majority of the summer offerings are just depressing me so much that I have to get my mind on the future. Here are some absolute shot in the dark predictions, as well as some other strong possibilities (winner predictions are in bold).

Best Picture
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
War Horse
J. Edgar
The Tree of Life
Hugo
The Ides of March
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Tinker, Tailor, Solider, Spy
We Need to Talk About Kevin
Carnage

Other Strong Possibilities: Contagion, The Artist, Drive, Take Shelter, A Dangerous Method, Young Adult, Martha Marcy May Marlene, We Bought a Zoo, The Descendants, Moneyball, Midnight in Paris, The Iron Lady, Like Crazy, Take This Waltz

Best Director
Steven Spielberg - War Horse
Clint Eastwood - J. Edgar
Martin Scorsese - Hugo
Terrence Malick - The Tree of Life
David Fincher - The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Other Strong Possibilities: Alexander Payne - The Descendants, Michel Hazanavicius - The Artist, George Clooney - The Ides of March, Tomas Alfredson - Tinker, Tailor, Solider, Spy, Stephen Daldry - Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Cameron Crowe - We Bought a Zoo, David Cronenberg - A Dangerous Method, Roman Polanski - Carnage, Steven Soderbergh - Contagion, Nicolas Winding Refn - Drive, Lynne Ramsay - We Need to Talk About Kevin, Jason Reitman - Young Adult

Best Actor
George Clooney - The Descendants
Leonardo DiCaprio - J. Edgar
Gary Oldman - Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Brad Pitt - Moneyball
Michael Fassbender - A Dangerous Method

Other Strong Possibilities: Jean Dujardin - The Artist, Jeremy Irvine - War Horse, Matt Damon - We Bought a Zoo, Ryan Gosling - The Ides of March, Ryan Gosling - Drive, Anton Yelchin - Like Crazy, Christoph Waltz - Carnage, John C. Reilly - Carnage, Michael Shannon - Take Shelter

Best Actress
Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton - We Need to Talk About Kevin
Elizabeth Olsen - Martha Marcy May Marlene
Charlize Theron - Young Adult
Rooney Mara - The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Other Strong Possibilities: Felicity Jones - Like Crazy, Kirsten Dunst - Melancholia, Michelle Williams - My Week with Marilyn, Kate Winslet - Carnage, Jodie Foster - Carnage, Michelle Williams - Take This Waltz

Best Supporting Actor
Christopher Plummer - Beginners
Phillip Seymour Hoffman - The Ides of March
Brad Pitt - The Tree of Life
Armie Hammer - J. Edgar
Jonah Hill - Moneyball

Other Strong Possibilities: Jim Broadbent - The Iron Lady, Kenneth Branagh - My Week with Marilyn, Albert Brooks - Drive, Niels Arestrup - War Horse, Viggo Mortenson - A Dangerous Method, Ben Kingsley - Hugo, Sacha Baron Cohen - Hugo, Tom Hanks - Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Seth Rogen - Take This Waltz

Best Supporting Actress
Vanessa Redgrave - Coriolanus
Keira Knightley - A Dangerous Method
Sandra Bullock - Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Naomi Watts - J. Edgar
Marisa Tomei - The Ides of March

Other Strong Possibilities: Anjelica Huston - 50/50, Andrea Riseborough - W.E., Judi Dench - My Week with Marilyn, Scarlett Johansson - We Bought a Zoo

Best Adapted Screenplay
War Horse
The Descendants
The Ides of March
Tinker, Tailor, Solider, Spy
Carnage

Other Strong Possibilities: Hugo, A Dangerous Method, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Moneyball, We Bought a Zoo, We Need to Talk About Kevin, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Best Original Screenplay
Midnight in Paris
J. Edgar
The Artist
Like Crazy
50/50

Other Strong Possibilities: Martha Marcy May Marlene, Young Adult, The Iron Lady, Win Win, Beginners, Take Shelter

Best Cinematography
War Horse
The Tree of Life
Hugo
J. Edgar
Tinker, Tailor, Solider, Spy

Other Strong Possibilities: The Artist, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II, Moneyball, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, A Dangerous Method

Best Art Direction
War Horse
Hugo
J. Edgar
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II
Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows

Other Strong Possibilities: The Artist, A Dangerous Method, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, Jane Eyre, Captain America: The First Avenger

Best Editing
War Horse
Hugo
J. Edgar
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Other Strong Possibilities: The Ides of March, Super 8, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Moneyball, Contagion

Best Sound Editing
War Horse
Super 8
The Adventures of Tin Tin: The Secret of the Unicorn
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Hugo

Other Strong Possibilities: Rango, Captain America: The First Avenger, Cars 2, Cowboys & Aliens, The Tree of Life, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Best Sound Mixing
Super 8
War Horse
The Adventures of Tin Tin: The Secret of the Unicorn
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Hugo

Other Strong Possibilities: Rango, Captain America: The First Avenger, Cars 2, Cowboys & Aliens, The Tree of Life, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Best Visual Effects
Hugo
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II
The Tree of Life
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon

Other Strong Possibilities: Cowboys & Aliens, Super 8, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, The Adventures of Tin Tin: The Secret of the Unicorn, Captain America: The First Avenger, X-Men: First Class

Best Animated Film
Rango
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rio
Arthur Christmas

Other Strong Possibilities: Happy Feet 2, Winnie the Pooh, Cars 2

Best Costume Design
The Artist
Hugo
J. Edgar
Jane Eyre
War Horse

Other Strong Possibilities: Immortals, W.E., Tinker Tailor, Solider Spy, A Dangerous Method, The Iron Lady, Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II, My Week with Marilyn, Captain America: The First Avenger

Best Makeup
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Iron Lady
J. Edgar

Other Strong Possibilities: Captain America: The First Avenger, The Green Lantern, Hugo, X-Men: First Class, Hugo, The Artist, My Week with Marilyn

Best Original Score
War Horse
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Artist
Hugo
The Ides of March

Other Strong Possibilities: Rango, The Adventures of Tin Tin: The Secret of the Unicorn, Super 8, A Better Life, A Dangerous Method, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier Spy, J. Edgar

Last edited by Bourne101; 07-04-2011 at 06:02 PM..
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  #2  
Old 07-04-2011, 06:08 PM
I highly doubt there will end up being 10 films nominated for best picture this year. Beyond that, I think it's way too early to tell. You've listed many films/performances that will very likely be good, but I don't like playing the prediction game until September.
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  #3  
Old 07-04-2011, 06:13 PM
I think these are very good predictions.
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  #4  
Old 07-04-2011, 06:40 PM
Yep good predictions, it reminds me that there is still a lot to look forward to, compared to what has been on offer recently.

Tomorrow I'm getting tickets for the Film Festival in my city for:
The Tree of Life
Drive
Take Shelter
I Saw the Devil
The Guard

Should be good.
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  #5  
Old 07-04-2011, 06:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hucksta G View Post
Tomorrow I'm getting tickets for the Film Festival in my city for:
The Tree of Life
Drive
Take Shelter
I Saw the Devil
The Guard
Damn, that's a hell of a line-up.
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  #6  
Old 07-05-2011, 12:22 AM
Predicting the oscars is harder than ever now that the academy has changed their rules so there can 5 or 6 or 7 or 8 or 9 or 10. You not only have to predict WHAT will be nominated but HOW MANY will be as well. SHEESH!

I will say that War Horse looks like a sure fire candidate. If J. Edgar lives up to it's potential, it too. Possibly The Ides of March. A few I'm eager for (besides the 3 I already mentioned which I am very excited about, especially War Horse) are Contagion, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy and of course I'm always interested in what Cameron Crowe gives us and We Bought a Zoo sounds like it another winner from him.

Moneyball and The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo both look fantastic too. So does 50/50 and A Dangerous Method.


Still need to see Beginners and Tree of Life, both of which look fantastic. I wouldn't be surprised to see them get some oscar love too.
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  #7  
Old 07-05-2011, 03:01 AM
Based off who even knows what.

Best Movie
1.The Ides of March
2.J. Edgar
3.War Horse
4.Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
5.A Dangerous Method
6.Hugo
7.Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
8.Moneyball
9.Carnage
10.Drive

Actor
1.Leonardo DiCaprio - J. Edgar
2.Ryan Gosling - The Ides of March
3.Gary Oldman - Tinker, Tailor, Soldier Spy
4.Michael Fassbender - A Dangerous Method
5.Matt Damon - We Bought a Zoo

Actress
1.Tilda Swinton - We Need to Talk About Kevin
2.Kate Winslet - Carnage
3.Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady
4.Michelle Williams - My Week with Marilyn
5.Elizabeth Olsen - Martha Marcy May Marlene

Supporting Actor
1.George Clooney - The Ides of March
2.Viggo Mortensen - A Dangerous Method
3.Christopher Plummer - Beginners
4.Jonah Hill - Moneyball
5.Jim Broadbent - The Iron Lady

Supporting Actress
1.Keira Knightley - A Dangerous Method
2.Naomi Watts - J. Edgar
3.Evan Rachel Wood - The Ides of March
4.Sandra Bullock - Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
5.Elle Fanning - We Bought a Zoo

Director
1.Steven Spielberg - War Horse
2.Clint Eastwood - J. Edgar
3.David Cronenberg - A Dangerous Method
4.George Clooney - The Ides of March
5.Martin Scorsese - Hugo

Animated
1.The Adventures of Tintin
2.Rango
3.Rio
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  #8  
Old 07-05-2011, 08:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ilovemovies View Post
Predicting the oscars is harder than ever now that the academy has changed their rules so there can 5 or 6 or 7 or 8 or 9 or 10. You not only have to predict WHAT will be nominated but HOW MANY will be as well. SHEESH!
This is exactly why I admire the Academy's decision so much! For the first time in years, it actually throws SOME unpredictability into the mix.

In any case, it's hard to tell from now, especially considering many films slated for upcoming release that could be hit-or-miss. However, I definitely think that the three surefire leading candidates so far seem to be J. Edgar (I hope they change the title of that film; it's not a very strong name), Girl with the Dragon Tattoo and War Horse. Hopefully, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier Spy has a strong showing, although the last John Le Carre adaptation, The Constant Gardener, didn't get a particularly big awards push beyond Best Supporting Actress even though it was one of the best films of the year it came out (2005).

Also, while I admire DiCaprio and think he is more than deserving of an Oscar, I personally am calling it right now: This is Gary Oldman's year, and it's about time he gets the Academy recognition he deserves.

I also think Streep is well overdue for her third Oscar, and looking at your suggestions for Best Actress nominees, I actually think she has a very good chance. She has everything working in her favor - she's playing a real person who requires some ugly make-up... I feel like We Need to Talk About Kevin is going to be too obscure to actually land Tilda a win. A nomination, certainly. Also, good call on Keira Knightley. I think she has a strong chance of winning, considering that her role looks to be just the right kind of "showy", and considering that she's had some Oscar love in the past but not yet a win.

Also, for the record, I think the dinosaurs will pretty much disqualify The Tree of Life from even earning a Best Visual Effects nomination. They just weren't that good. I think this is Harry Potter's to lose. That franchise has been long overdue for a VFX Oscar win...!
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  #9  
Old 07-05-2011, 09:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monotreme View Post
I feel like We Need to Talk About Kevin is going to be too obscure to actually land Tilda a win.
I've heard that it's not that obscure and rather accessible, although quite disturbing. Streep seems like the obvious choice at this point, but I just have a gut feeling that Tilda will take it this year. In fact, while I kind of downplayed the film's chances in my predictions (I worry that the subject matter is too bleak for many Academy members), I think it could potentially end up being a big player in several categories.

Last edited by Bourne101; 07-05-2011 at 09:08 PM..
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  #10  
Old 07-05-2011, 09:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
I've heard that it's not that obscure and rather accessible, although quite disturbing. Streep seems like the obvious choice at this point, but I just have a gut feeling that Tilda will take it this year. In fact, while I kind of downplayed the film's chances in my predictions, I think it might end up being a big player in several categories.
I heard great things about the film as well. However, judging by its release pattern, this is going to get a very limited release and end up catering to a very niche audience. It is being distributed by Oscilloscope, which is an amazing company but too small to give a film the proper push for an Oscar win. If it was distributed by Focus Features or Fox Searchlight, maybe. Oscilloscope manage to get their actors nominations - Woody Harrelson in The Messenger comes to mind - but I don't se We Need to Talk to Kevin getting much Oscar love outside of nominations for Tilda and maybe for the screenplay.

So far, if you ask me, Streep has this wrapped up. And The Iron Lady sure might be setting itself up as a bigger player, even though it's directed by an untested director (Her previous directorial effort is Mamma Mia!, not exactly the pinnacle of quality filmmaking)
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  #11  
Old 07-05-2011, 09:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monotreme View Post
I heard great things about the film as well. However, judging by its release pattern, this is going to get a very limited release and end up catering to a very niche audience. It is being distributed by Oscilloscope, which is an amazing company but too small to give a film the proper push for an Oscar win. If it was distributed by Focus Features or Fox Searchlight, maybe. Oscilloscope manage to get their actors nominations - Woody Harrelson in The Messenger comes to mind - but I don't se We Need to Talk to Kevin getting much Oscar love outside of nominations for Tilda and maybe for the screenplay.
I wasn't aware Oscilloscope was releasing it. For some reason I thought it was Sony Classics. In that case, you're probably right. Swinton and maybe a screenplay nomination. They also probably don't have the campaign bucks to throw toward Swinton for her to win.
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  #12  
Old 07-05-2011, 09:38 PM
For this early in the year, those are some good, solid predictions.

Streep and Oldman for the win. That's all I care about regarding next year's Oscars.

And Tree of Life for cinematography if there's any justice left.
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  #13  
Old 07-05-2011, 10:20 PM
Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs anybody?

If she gets great reviews and gets nominated, there's going to be talking about how she's never won. She's more overdue than Streep.

I think for Streep to win, the movie needs to get good reviews also, in addition to the usual outstanding reviews she gets. Getting nominated for Best Picture would help her.
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  #14  
Old 07-06-2011, 12:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monotreme View Post
This is exactly why I admire the Academy's decision so much! For the first time in years, it actually throws SOME unpredictability into the mix.
Not really.

It might create some suspense up to the nominations announcement but you know the actual show itself will remain predictable as it'll be the same winners from the other awards shows that come before.
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  #15  
Old 07-06-2011, 01:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Matchbox225 View Post
Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs anybody?

If she gets great reviews and gets nominated, there's going to be talking about how she's never won. She's more overdue than Streep.
This. Close won an Obie some 30 years ago for playing the same role on Broadway -- she's producing the film version (a long time labor of love) AND she co-wrote the screenplay, plus, the overdue factor.
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  #16  
Old 07-06-2011, 02:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monotreme View Post
So far, if you ask me, Streep has this wrapped up. And The Iron Lady sure might be setting itself up as a bigger player, even though it's directed by an untested director (Her previous directorial effort is Mamma Mia!, not exactly the pinnacle of quality filmmaking)
This is something that worries me. Streep's performances have been hurt before by bad directorial choices. I just hope the director just focuses on telling a story instead of having the camera awing at Streep like some movies do.

I have more faith in the other films because the directors have been around longer.

Last edited by Matchbox225; 07-06-2011 at 02:04 PM..
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  #17  
Old 07-06-2011, 03:39 PM
There are a lot of heavy weights in contention this year for directing and picture; Malick, Spielberg, Scorsese, Cronenberg, Eastwood, and Clooney. I think J. Edgar will be nominated for both directing and picture but I highly doubt if it will win mainly because Clint Eastwood already has 4 Oscars to his name. I would say DiCaprio is a shoe in this year for a nomination and he is certainly due to win but there's also Brad Pitt who has not won yet and is due for one as well in my personal opinion. I would say Scorsese and Spielberg will not win either considering they have already won at least one. Clooney as well. I wouldn't be surprised if the Cronenberg or Malick films were not the big winners this year. David Cronenberg has not been nominated for an Oscar but has garnered a lot of respect and acclaim for Eastern Promises and A History of Violence. Terrence Malick is probably the one though that is most over due for an Oscar though so I would say he'll win best director. I would be willing to bet Tree of Life ends up winning for Best Picture as well. With the Best Acting category, Michael Fassbender is bound to get nominated this year and could pull an upset win over Pitt and DiCaprio because he is fast becoming a favorite actor among critics and audiences. I would say Viggo Mortenson is a lock for Supporting actor unless of course Pitt is nominated for Supporting Actor instead of Lead Actor. I think Michelle Williams is a lock this year for Best Actress for My Week With Marilyn, it's the type of role the academy eats up and she has obviously been a favorite with the critics and the academy lately. I wouldn't be surprised if Naomi Watts or Kiera Knightly walked away with gold either.

This years Oscar race I think will be a very interesting one, a lot of movies still need to come out before I make my concrete predictions and I also need to see them all first.
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  #18  
Old 07-06-2011, 08:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ilovemovies View Post
Not really.

It might create some suspense up to the nominations announcement but you know the actual show itself will remain predictable as it'll be the same winners from the other awards shows that come before.
Well, hence I said it adds SOME unpredictability. The show itself will probably turn out to be fairly predictable, as usual. But at least we'll have a little bit of fun trying to guess the nominees leading up to the announcement
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  #19  
Old 07-06-2011, 08:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Matchbox225 View Post
This is something that worries me. Streep's performances have been hurt before by bad directorial choices. I just hope the director just focuses on telling a story instead of having the camera awing at Streep like some movies do.

I have more faith in the other films because the directors have been around longer.
Yeah, this is the one reason I'm still on the fence about this film: It has a fantastic cast and looks like it could be a fantastic film. But the fact that the director is as-of-yet unproven makes me have some reservations/doubts. But we will see if they turn out to be founded or not!
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  #20  
Old 07-06-2011, 10:20 PM
I think Dragon Tattoo might be too nasty to get nom'ed, assuming the rape scenes are still there. Depends how much money it takes I guess.

War Horse is as certain as anything can be at this stage.
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  #21  
Old 07-06-2011, 10:26 PM
I'd also guess the right wing media in the UK- and Fox News- are going to shit all over The Iron Lady regardless of how good or otherwise it is, again they might want to go for something safer.
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  #22  
Old 07-06-2011, 11:42 PM
would the academy reward the new Potter movie if its truly something special
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  #23  
Old 07-07-2011, 12:35 AM
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Originally Posted by athf1980 View Post
would the academy reward the new Potter movie if its truly something special
I think it could get nominated, but it won't win.
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  #24  
Old 07-07-2011, 03:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Matchbox225 View Post
I think it could get nominated, but it won't win.
Like I said earlier, though, I think this franchise is well overdue for a Best Visual Effects Oscar; how it has never won one before is completely beyond me.
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  #25  
Old 07-07-2011, 07:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monotreme View Post
Like I said earlier, though, I think this franchise is well overdue for a Best Visual Effects Oscar; how it has never won one before is completely beyond me.
The series has only been nominated for visual effects twice, which is surprising.

Even with nominations, Harry Potter probably wouldn't have won anyway.

In 2001 and 2002, Lord Of The Rings had those locked up.

I guess it would have been a worthy winner in 2004, but Spider-man 2 was the more acclaimed film.

In 2005, visual effects went to King Kong. No arguments there.

2007 was a disaster. That was the year The Golden Compass won. Pirates and Transformers were the other nominees. Harry Potter not getting in was absolutely insane, especially when you look at what got nominated.

Avatar had it locked up in 2009.

Inception in 2010 also.

Harry Potter could win Visual Effects if there isn't a mega blockbuster film like Avatar or Inception in the mix.
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  #26  
Old 07-08-2011, 01:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Matchbox225 View Post
The series has only been nominated for visual effects twice, which is surprising.

Even with nominations, Harry Potter probably wouldn't have won anyway.

In 2001 and 2002, Lord Of The Rings had those locked up.

I guess it would have been a worthy winner in 2004, but Spider-man 2 was the more acclaimed film.

In 2005, visual effects went to King Kong. No arguments there.

2007 was a disaster. That was the year The Golden Compass won. Pirates and Transformers were the other nominees. Harry Potter not getting in was absolutely insane, especially when you look at what got nominated.

Avatar had it locked up in 2009.

Inception in 2010 also.

Harry Potter could win Visual Effects if there isn't a mega blockbuster film like Avatar or Inception in the mix.
Yeah. First off, I didn't realize that between the 8 films, it only got TWO nominations?! Looking back at the other nominees, this is really shaping up to be a pretty pathetic category. 2007 was indeed dismal - I can't believe Transformers didn't win. And even if it didn't, I can't believe The Golden Compass DID win, what with its completely unconvincing CGI. Just last hear Hereafter, which had some of the worst CGI I've seen in years, got a nomination. It's as if they just don't care.

However, this year, Harry Potter seems to be a shoo-in, or at least a solid front-runner. The only other film that could really give it a run for its money looks to be Cowboys and Aliens, and possibly Super 8 as well. But Harry Potter deserves to win this!
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  #27  
Old 07-08-2011, 02:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monotreme View Post
Yeah. First off, I didn't realize that between the 8 films, it only got TWO nominations?! Looking back at the other nominees, this is really shaping up to be a pretty pathetic category. 2007 was indeed dismal - I can't believe Transformers didn't win. And even if it didn't, I can't believe The Golden Compass DID win, what with its completely unconvincing CGI. Just last hear Hereafter, which had some of the worst CGI I've seen in years, got a nomination. It's as if they just don't care.

However, this year, Harry Potter seems to be a shoo-in, or at least a solid front-runner. The only other film that could really give it a run for its money looks to be Cowboys and Aliens, and possibly Super 8 as well. But Harry Potter deserves to win this!
This is one of those categories where the movies don't necessarily need to get great reviews to win.

I haven't read the book, so I don't know what to expect for the visual effects other than stuff we've already scene in the previous films.
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  #28  
Old 07-08-2011, 02:32 PM
Like his past few films, I think Eastwood's J. Edgar will get buzz in the acting categories but will get lukewarm reviews overall, thus making it not a real contender for Picture or Director. Obviously, I could be wrong, but these are all just guesses. Also, even though The Tree of Life is a very polarizing movie, I think the new rule will help it out a lot, as it will probably get a fair share of #1 votes, even though it won't get on a lot of ballots overall. Movies with relatively small but passionate followings definitely benefit from this new rule.

Also, another bold prediction: War Horse will disappoint. Obviously tech nominations are assured, but I just have a gut feeling that the reviews won't be ecstatic, and the box office probably won't be anywhere near typical Spielberg level.

BEST PICTURE
The Artist
A Dangerous Method
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Tree of Life
We Bought a Zoo

BEST DIRECTOR
David Cronenberg, A Dangerous Method
Stephen Daldry, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life

BEST ACTOR
George Clooney, The Descendant
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
Jean DuJardin, The Artist
Michael Fassbender, A Dangerous Method
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

BEST ACTRESS
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method (though I have a feeling they may campaign her as supporting)
Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Armie Hammer, J. Edgar
John Hawkes, Martha Marcy May Marlene
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Ides of March
Viggo Mortensen, A Dangerous Method
Brad Pitt, The Tree of Life

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Sandra Bullock, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Judy Davis, The Eye of the Storm
Viola Davis, The Help
Stephanie Sztosak, We Bought a Zoo
Mia Wasikowska, Albert Nobbs

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Artist
Martha Marcy May Marlene
Midnight in Paris
Take Shelter
The Tree of Life

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Dangerous Method
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
We Bought a Zoo

Last edited by Tkeyjw; 07-08-2011 at 02:36 PM..
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  #29  
Old 07-08-2011, 04:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tkeyjw View Post
Like his past few films, I think Eastwood's J. Edgar will get buzz in the acting categories but will get lukewarm reviews overall, thus making it not a real contender for Picture or Director.
If the script is any indication, it's going to easily be one of the biggest contenders. It's a sharp, powerful script that is much more refined and focused than Eastwood's recent efforts, Invictus and Hereafter.
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  #30  
Old 07-08-2011, 05:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Matchbox225 View Post
This is one of those categories where the movies don't necessarily need to get great reviews to win.

I haven't read the book, so I don't know what to expect for the visual effects other than stuff we've already scene in the previous films.
Actually, I feel that the opposite is true. I find that voters often have a hard time voting for poorly received films in this category. This is why the first Transformers film didn't win in 2007 - people seem to have a problem awarding that film an Oscar. It's also, in my opinion, the reason Hereafter was nominated last year - it's as if just because it's Eastwood, it merits automatic Oscar consideration, even though in this case, the special effects were pretty awful and completely undeserving of a nomination.

For the record, you can expect some great things from this final Harry Potter from a SFX standpoint. Dragons, a giant battle... they're gonna go all-out on this one!
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  #31  
Old 07-08-2011, 10:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monotreme View Post
Actually, I feel that the opposite is true. I find that voters often have a hard time voting for poorly received films in this category. This is why the first Transformers film didn't win in 2007 - people seem to have a problem awarding that film an Oscar. It's also, in my opinion, the reason Hereafter was nominated last year - it's as if just because it's Eastwood, it merits automatic Oscar consideration, even though in this case, the special effects were pretty awful and completely undeserving of a nomination.

For the record, you can expect some great things from this final Harry Potter from a SFX standpoint. Dragons, a giant battle... they're gonna go all-out on this one!

I probably put too much into the fact that Golden Compass won in 2007, even though it's largely considered a disappointment.

I agree though that it won partly because it was the most respectable choice.

Looking over the visual effects list, I see that a lot of them did get good reviews. There are some stinkers in there like Poseidon and Hollow Man.

Last edited by Matchbox225; 07-08-2011 at 10:44 PM..
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  #32  
Old 07-09-2011, 12:57 AM
Someone who I graduated with (or maybe he graduated a year later, I don't remember) was involved with the special effects team of The Golden Compass.

I was actually happy about that movie winning best visual effects because I wasn't THAT impressed with Transformers and I really liked The Golden Compass. I thought the movie's visuals were pretty awesome too.

Also I was fine with Hereafter getting nominated because that tsunami scene that opens the movie was incredibly impressive. Probably the best scene in the movie actually.
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  #33  
Old 07-09-2011, 07:15 AM
I think The Tree of Life will be nominated for Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Cinematography.
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  #34  
Old 07-09-2011, 08:37 AM
I also admire the Academy's decision to mix up the nominations. I doubt it'll make the ceremony itself anymore exciting, but it does mean that the Academy won't have to include any "long shots" to round out the field to 10.

As far as predictions, a little too early for me to try and make any kind of predictions.
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  #35  
Old 07-09-2011, 07:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ilovemovies View Post
Someone who I graduated with (or maybe he graduated a year later, I don't remember) was involved with the special effects team of The Golden Compass.

I was actually happy about that movie winning best visual effects because I wasn't THAT impressed with Transformers and I really liked The Golden Compass. I thought the movie's visuals were pretty awesome too.

Also I was fine with Hereafter getting nominated because that tsunami scene that opens the movie was incredibly impressive. Probably the best scene in the movie actually.
I don't know, man. The tsunami scene was kind of laughable to me. Some shots were amazing, but some had really bad composting, and it was really obvious. Golden Compass suffered from the "lack of heft" problem the Chronicles of Narnia and the Twilight movies also suffer from: You never get the sense that the creatures (in the Golden Compass' case this is specifically referring to the bears) are ever really there, because they way they move around doesn't feel like they have any WEIGHT to them. Many of the SFX shots were iffy.

Transformers, on the other hand, were 100% photo-realistic, completely realistically rendered and integrated flawlessly into their environments. Say what you will about the quality of the films - but it can't be denied that they are special effects triumphs of the highest degree.
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  #36  
Old 07-13-2011, 04:34 PM
I don't think The Tree of Life has much chance of being nominated for anything, let alone winning. I liked it but it'll be too polarising, it is out too early, and the dinosaur scene hurts it, in my 'umble opinion.
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  #37  
Old 07-13-2011, 05:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JCR View Post
I don't think The Tree of Life has much chance of being nominated for anything, let alone winning. I liked it but it'll be too polarising, it is out too early, and the dinosaur scene hurts it, in my 'umble opinion.
The Thin Red Line was polarizing, but it got in, mostly based on the passionate supporters. Tree Of Life will have passionate supporters also.
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  #38  
Old 07-13-2011, 08:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JCR View Post
I don't think The Tree of Life has much chance of being nominated for anything, let alone winning. I liked it but it'll be too polarising, it is out too early, and the dinosaur scene hurts it, in my 'umble opinion.
I kind of agree, but with the expanded Best Picture category, it might have a chance. At the very least it's a shoo-in for a Best Cinematography nomination, if not win. Lubezski has been nominated for 4 Oscars so far and hasn't won yet, and I think many people (myself included) feel like he should have won for Children of Men. So, this might be his year!
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  #39  
Old 07-13-2011, 10:26 PM
I don't think Tree of Life will get any major nominations but I definitely think it has a strong shot at getting nominated for it's cinematography and possibly for it's score. A great score and one of the amazingly beautifully photographed movie I have ever seen.

I hope Thor gets nominated for it's art direction. How can anyone NOT be amazed by that movie's sets. It was truly astonishing IMO!
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  #40  
Old 07-14-2011, 12:24 AM
i hope leonardo dicaprio get the best actor award now because he really needs it.
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