#1  
Old 07-17-2012, 06:01 PM
2012 Academy Awards

Very early, shot-in-the-dark predictions

Best Picture
Les Miserables
Django Unchained
Lincoln
The Master
Life of Pi
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Silver Linings Playbook
The Great Gatsby
The Sessions

Other Strong Possibilities: Trouble with the Curve, The Dark Knight Rises, Moonrise Kingdom, Anna Karenina, Flight, Zero Dark Thirty, Mud, Argo

Best Director
Tom Hooper – Les Miserables
Quentin Tarantino – Django Unchained
Paul Thomas Anderson – The Master
Ang Lee – Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg – Lincoln

Other Strong Possibilities: Peter Jackson – The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Benh Zeitlin – Beasts of the Southern Wild, David O. Russell – The Silver Linings Playbook, Baz Luhrmann – The Great Gatsby, Christopher Nolan – The Dark Knight Rises, Wes Anderson – Moonrise Kingdom, Joe Wright – Anna Karenina, Robert Zemeckis – Flight, Kathryn Bigelow - Zero Dark Thirty, Ben Affleck - Argo

Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
Joaquin Phoenix – The Master
John Hawkes – The Sessions
Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables
Bill Murray – Hyde Park on Hudson

Other Strong Possibilites: Denzel Washington – Flight, Leonardo DiCaprio – The Great Gatsby, Clint Eastwood – Trouble with the Curve, Jamie Foxx – Django Unchained, Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook

Best Actress
Quvenzhane Wallis – Beasts of the Southern Wild
Helen Hunt – The Sessions
Laura Linney – Hide Park on Hudson
Marion Cotillard – Rust and Bone
Carey Mulligan – The Great Gatsby

Other Strong Possibilities: Mary Elizabeth-Winstead – Smashed, Amy Adams – Trouble with the Curve, Keira Knightly – Anna Karenina

Best Supporting Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio – Django Unchained
Phillip Seymour Hoffman – The Master
Dwight Henry – Beasts of the Southern Wild
Russell Crowe – Les Miserables
Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained

Other Strong Possibilities: Joel Edgerton – The Great Gatsby, Samuel L. Jackson – Django Unchained, Walton Goggins – Django Unchained, Matthew McConaughey – Magic Mike

Best Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables
Amy Adams – The Master
Sally Field – Lincoln
Judi Dench – The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Annette Bening - Imogene

Other Strong Possibilities: Olivia Williams – Hyde Park on Hudson, Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook, Maggie Smith – The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Best Adapted Screenplay
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Lincoln
Argo

Other Strong Possibilities: Hyde Park on Hudson, Silver Linings Playbook, The Great Gatsby, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Best Original Screenplay
The Master
Django Unchained
Moonrise Kingdom
The Sessions
Seven Psychopaths

Other Strong Possibilities: Amour, Mud, Flight, Looper, Trouble with the Curve

Best Cinematography
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Django Unchained
The Master
Les Miserables
Life of Pi

Other Strong Possibilities: The Dark Knight Rises, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Lincoln, The Great Gatsby, Anna Karenina

Best Art Direction
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Great Gatsby
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Les Miserables

Other Strong Possibilities: Lincoln, Life of Pi

Best Editing
Paul Thomas Anderson – The Master
Tom Hooper – Les Miserables
Quentin Tarantino – Django Unchained
Ang Lee – Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg – Lincoln

Other Strong Possibilities: Zero Dark Thirty, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Argo, The Dark Knight Rises, The Great Gatsby, The Bourne Legacy, Flight, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Best Sound Editing
The Dark Knight Rises
The Avengers
Django Unchained
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Zero Dark Thirty

Other Strong Possibilities: Life of Pi, Flight, The Bourne Legacy, Prometheus, Looper, Skyfall

Best Sound Mixing
The Dark Knight Rises
The Avengers
Django Unchained
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Zero Dark Thirty

Other Strong Possibilities: Les Miserables, Life of Pi, The Bourne Legacy, Prometheus, Looper, Skyfall

Best Visual Effects
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Dark Knight Rises
Life of Pi
The Avengers
Prometheus

Other Strong Possibilities: John Carter, The Amazing Spider-Man, Looper, Flight

Best Animated Film
Rise of the Guardians
Wreck-It-Ralph
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman

Other Strong Possibilities: Hotel Transylvania

Best Costume Design
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Great Gatsby
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Les Miserables

Other Strong Possibilities: Mirror Mirror, Snow White and the Huntsman, Lincoln

Best Makeup
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Lincoln
Les Miserables

Other Strong Possibilities: Men in Black III, Django Unchained, Anna Karenina, The Great Gatsby

Best Original Score
The Master
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Anna Karenina
Beasts of the Southern Wild

Other Strong Possibilities: Moonrise Kingdom, Rise of the Guardians, The Great Gatsby

Last edited by Bourne101; 07-17-2012 at 07:03 PM..
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 07-17-2012, 07:11 PM
its very early to say.best of the movies r yet to come.but having read the wonderful screenplay of Django Unchained,my horse in the race is Django Unchained.if Academy dont want the world to know more abt american slave period,they'll snub the film.thats what i can say now.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 07-17-2012, 07:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post

Best Supporting Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio – Django Unchained
Phillip Seymour Hoffman – The Master
Dwight Henry – Beasts of the Southern Wild
Russell Crowe – Les Miserables
Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained
Nice.

I don't think Daniel Day Lewis will win another Oscar; he has two and no actor has three Best Actor Oscars. I wouldn't be surprised if he was the first, but I don't the Academy will award an actor a third.

I'm also curious to see if TDKR gets a Best Picture nod since TDK was the supposed reason for the Academy expanding the field to ten nominees.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 07-17-2012, 07:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigred760 View Post
I'm also curious to see if TDKR gets a Best Picture nod since TDK was the supposed reason for the Academy expanding the field to ten nominees.
I think it has a shot, based on the reactions/reviews so far, but it looks like it'll be a really competitive field this year.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 07-18-2012, 12:39 AM
I think Dicaprio will have a better shot with Gatsby than with Django Unchained. I just don't see that movie getting that much love. Even if it's actually great.



BEST PICTURE:

Argo
Cloud Atlas
The Great Gatsby
Flight
The Hobbit
Hyde Park on Hudson
Les Miserables
Lincoln
The Master
Trouble with the Curve


BEST DIRECTOR:

Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
Peter Jackson, The Hobbit
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Tom Tykwer/Andy Wachowski/Lana Wachowski, Cloud Atlas


BEST ACTOR:

Clint Eastwood, Trouble with the Curve
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudson
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

Argo
Cloud Atlas
The Hobbit
Hyde Park on Hudson
Lincoln


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Django Unchained
Flight
The Master
Trouble with the Curve
The Words


That's all I got for now. I'll edit to finish it later.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 07-18-2012, 08:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ilovemovies View Post
I think Dicaprio will have a better shot with Gatsby than with Django Unchained. I just don't see that movie getting that much love. Even if it's actually great.
I think it will be fine. It will be controversial, sure, but the Academy loves Tarantino and DiCaprio's role in Django is the kind they have been going for lately.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 07-18-2012, 11:10 AM
No offense to your list, because you are probably going to be 95% right, but I think it is pretty sad a list like this can be made so early in the year. It is sad that it is so easy to predict the same ole people will get a nod.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 07-18-2012, 11:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ilovemovies View Post
I think Dicaprio will have a better shot with Gatsby than with Django Unchained. I just don't see that movie getting that much love. Even if it's actually great.
I disagree. DiCaprio will have a harder time in Lead Actor because that category is always crowded, which hasn't helped him in the past. Plus, the movie actually has to be good. I think he can get in for Django pretty easily, even if the movie doesn't get in for Best Picture. It's actually something different for him and I think that will help him.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Erroneous View Post
No offense to your list, because you are probably going to be 95% right, but I think it is pretty sad a list like this can be made so early in the year. It is sad that it is so easy to predict the same ole people will get a nod.
It is sad.

This time last year, Meryl Streep, Glenn Close, and Michelle Williams were predicted to be nominated, based on name and the baitiness of their roles and they got in.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 07-18-2012, 11:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Erroneous View Post
No offense to your list, because you are probably going to be 95% right, but I think it is pretty sad a list like this can be made so early in the year. It is sad that it is so easy to predict the same ole people will get a nod.
It sort of is, but not nearly as much as people think. Here's Bourne's list from this time last year for instance:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
Best Picture
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
War Horse
J. Edgar
The Tree of Life
Hugo
The Ides of March
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Tinker, Tailor, Solider, Spy
We Need to Talk About Kevin
Carnage

Other Strong Possibilities: Contagion, The Artist, Drive, Take Shelter, A Dangerous Method, Young Adult, Martha Marcy May Marlene, We Bought a Zoo, The Descendants, Moneyball, Midnight in Paris, The Iron Lady, Like Crazy, Take This Waltz

Best Director
Steven Spielberg - War Horse
Clint Eastwood - J. Edgar
Martin Scorsese - Hugo
Terrence Malick - The Tree of Life
David Fincher - The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Other Strong Possibilities: Alexander Payne - The Descendants, Michel Hazanavicius - The Artist, George Clooney - The Ides of March, Tomas Alfredson - Tinker, Tailor, Solider, Spy, Stephen Daldry - Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Cameron Crowe - We Bought a Zoo, David Cronenberg - A Dangerous Method, Roman Polanski - Carnage, Steven Soderbergh - Contagion, Nicolas Winding Refn - Drive, Lynne Ramsay - We Need to Talk About Kevin, Jason Reitman - Young Adult

Best Actor
George Clooney - The Descendants
Leonardo DiCaprio - J. Edgar
Gary Oldman - Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Brad Pitt - Moneyball
Michael Fassbender - A Dangerous Method

Other Strong Possibilities: Jean Dujardin - The Artist, Jeremy Irvine - War Horse, Matt Damon - We Bought a Zoo, Ryan Gosling - The Ides of March, Ryan Gosling - Drive, Anton Yelchin - Like Crazy, Christoph Waltz - Carnage, John C. Reilly - Carnage, Michael Shannon - Take Shelter

Best Actress
Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton - We Need to Talk About Kevin
Elizabeth Olsen - Martha Marcy May Marlene
Charlize Theron - Young Adult
Rooney Mara - The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Other Strong Possibilities: Felicity Jones - Like Crazy, Kirsten Dunst - Melancholia, Michelle Williams - My Week with Marilyn, Kate Winslet - Carnage, Jodie Foster - Carnage, Michelle Williams - Take This Waltz

Best Supporting Actor
Christopher Plummer - Beginners
Phillip Seymour Hoffman - The Ides of March
Brad Pitt - The Tree of Life
Armie Hammer - J. Edgar
Jonah Hill - Moneyball

Other Strong Possibilities: Jim Broadbent - The Iron Lady, Kenneth Branagh - My Week with Marilyn, Albert Brooks - Drive, Niels Arestrup - War Horse, Viggo Mortenson - A Dangerous Method, Ben Kingsley - Hugo, Sacha Baron Cohen - Hugo, Tom Hanks - Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Seth Rogen - Take This Waltz

Best Supporting Actress
Vanessa Redgrave - Coriolanus
Keira Knightley - A Dangerous Method
Sandra Bullock - Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Naomi Watts - J. Edgar
Marisa Tomei - The Ides of March

Other Strong Possibilities: Anjelica Huston - 50/50, Andrea Riseborough - W.E., Judi Dench - My Week with Marilyn, Scarlett Johansson - We Bought a Zoo

Best Adapted Screenplay
War Horse
The Descendants
The Ides of March
Tinker, Tailor, Solider, Spy
Carnage

Other Strong Possibilities: Hugo, A Dangerous Method, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Moneyball, We Bought a Zoo, We Need to Talk About Kevin, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Best Original Screenplay
Midnight in Paris
J. Edgar
The Artist
Like Crazy
50/50

Other Strong Possibilities: Martha Marcy May Marlene, Young Adult, The Iron Lady, Win Win, Beginners, Take Shelter
He averages about 40% (42.5%) accuracy. More than halfway through the year, he can predict 2 of the eventual 5 nominees in most categories. At best, in 2 categories, he gets 3 out of 5. While at worst, in best supporting actress, he gets none. I'm not including the "Other Strong Possibilities" because if you can name enough movies you're bound to list a few more nominees, but even with 9 choices in that category he didn't name a single eventual nominee. Notably, the eventual winners of half these categories aren't among his short list of predictions and his predicted winner in every category wasn't even nominated.

My point, to be clear, is not that Bourne's a bad prognosticator, I think he's a good one. Aside from maybe giving too much credit to a love affair with Eastwood last year and Hooper this year, our lists would not be that different. Rather, I think a lot of people weary of the Oscars drastically overestimate just how predictable the Academy is. There is a common tendency I see every year to act as though everything is woefully predictable and inevitable and the fact is, nearly everyone exclaiming that has quite inaccurate predictions, as do even the experts at places like Awards Daily and In Contention when we're this far out. It's those people who dismissively look at something like J Edgar and think "Clint Eastwood directing a biopic starring Leo DiCaprio as an infamous conservative politician with dark secrets written by a young, gay, liberal hotshot screenwriter who won an Oscar 3 years ago? Of course the tired old Academy will eat that up." (You can play Mad Libs and replace J Edgar with The Lovely Bones or Memoirs of A Geisha or Invictus)... but then they don't. You can go by pedigree and conventional wisdom to take a stab at what generally prestigious fare voters will go for this year, but it's really not until everything has been seen that anyone has a real good idea of what's going to happen.

Before they were screened and made big splashes based on their quality or perceived quality for instance, who could have predicted that a black and white silent French film, a low budget war film from a Hollywood has-been action director that bombed and had been playing for over a year looking to get picked up, and a movie about a poor kid on the Indian version of Who Wants to Be A Millionaire would have won best picture as 3 of the last 4 winners did? Nobody could and nobody did.

By the time awards season is in full swing, if you pay attention you can probably predict with about 70% accuracy who is going to be nominated and who is going to win, but it's really not derisively foreseeable as many like to believe.

Last edited by QUENTIN; 07-18-2012 at 12:06 PM..
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 07-18-2012, 01:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by QUENTIN View Post
He averages about 40% (42.5%) accuracy. More than halfway through the year, he can predict 2 of the eventual 5 nominees in most categories. At best, in 2 categories, he gets 3 out of 5. While at worst, in best supporting actress, he gets none. I'm not including the "Other Strong Possibilities" because if you can name enough movies you're bound to list a few more nominees, but even with 9 choices in that category he didn't name a single eventual nominee. Notably, the eventual winners of half these categories aren't among his short list of predictions and his predicted winner in every category wasn't even nominated.

My point, to be clear, is not that Bourne's a bad prognosticator, I think he's a good one. Aside from maybe giving too much credit to a love affair with Eastwood last year and Hooper this year, our lists would not be that different. Rather, I think a lot of people weary of the Oscars drastically overestimate just how predictable the Academy is. There is a common tendency I see every year to act as though everything is woefully predictable and inevitable and the fact is, nearly everyone exclaiming that has quite inaccurate predictions, as do even the experts at places like Awards Daily and In Contention when we're this far out. It's those people who dismissively look at something like J Edgar and think "Clint Eastwood directing a biopic starring Leo DiCaprio as an infamous conservative politician with dark secrets written by a young, gay, liberal hotshot screenwriter who won an Oscar 3 years ago? Of course the tired old Academy will eat that up." (You can play Mad Libs and replace J Edgar with The Lovely Bones or Memoirs of A Geisha or Invictus)... but then they don't. You can go by pedigree and conventional wisdom to take a stab at what generally prestigious fare voters will go for this year, but it's really not until everything has been seen that anyone has a real good idea of what's going to happen.

Before they were screened and made big splashes based on their quality or perceived quality for instance, who could have predicted that a black and white silent French film, a low budget war film from a Hollywood has-been action director that bombed and had been playing for over a year looking to get picked up, and a movie about a poor kid on the Indian version of Who Wants to Be A Millionaire would have won best picture as 3 of the last 4 winners did? Nobody could and nobody did.

By the time awards season is in full swing, if you pay attention you can probably predict with about 70% accuracy who is going to be nominated and who is going to win, but it's really not derisively foreseeable as many like to believe.
Bingo. These predictions are just in good fun and while some of these will certainly be nominated, several of them will end up being busts and there will be several movies that we probably haven't even heard of yet that will sneak into the conversation after making splashes at TIFF, Venice, Telluride, etc. You can never really know what will happen this early (which you nicely pointed out with your Slumdog, Artist and Hurt Locker examples). At this point, there are so many ways it could go. The most likely scenario based on the past few years is that something we haven't heard of ends up winning (hell, even King's Speech, which was as obvious a choice as they come, hadn't even really been heard of until it played in Toronto). Obvious early contenders like Les Miserables, The Great Gatsby, and Lincoln, could end up being duds. If nothing special happens during the festival circuit, maybe The Hobbit ends up being on the same level as the other LOTR films and the Academy goes for something like that again. Maybe the Academy overlooks the Django controversy and finally awards Tarantino in the big categories with his western epic. Maybe The Master is on the level of TWBB and they realize that they need to reward PTA. Maybe Beasts of the Southern Wild carries its momentum all the way from Sundance and remains the critical and audience favorite.

Anything can happen.

Last edited by Bourne101; 07-18-2012 at 01:16 PM..
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 07-18-2012, 05:30 PM
BEST PICTURE
The Master
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Les Misérables

Lincoln
Argo
Hyde Park on Hudson
Anna Karenina
The Sessions
Moonrise Kingdom
Life of Pi

BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
Benh Zietlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Tom Hooper, Les Misérables
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Ang Lee, Life of Pi

BEST ACTOR
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudson
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

BEST ACTRESS
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina
Laura Linney, Hyde Park on Hudson
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Russell Crowe, Les Misérables
Jude Law, Anna Karenina

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, The Master
Samantha Barks, Les Misérables
Sally Field, Lincoln
Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Olivia Williams, Hyde Park on Hudson

BEST SCREENPLAY - ORIGINAL
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Hyde Park on Hudson
Django Unchained

The Sessions

BEST SCREENPLAY - ADAPTED
Lincoln
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Anna Karenina
Argo
Life of Pi

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Master
Life of Pi
Zero Dark Thirty
The Great Gatsby
The Dark Knight Rises

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Dark Knight Rises
The Great Gatsby
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Prometheus
The Avengers

That's all I've got for now.
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 07-18-2012, 05:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
Bingo. These predictions are just in good fun and while some of these will certainly be nominated, several of them will end up being busts and there will be several movies that we probably haven't even heard of yet that will sneak into the conversation after making splashes at TIFF, Venice, Telluride, etc. You can never really know what will happen this early (which you nicely pointed out with your Slumdog, Artist and Hurt Locker examples). At this point, there are so many ways it could go. The most likely scenario based on the past few years is that something we haven't heard of ends up winning (hell, even King's Speech, which was as obvious a choice as they come, hadn't even really been heard of until it played in Toronto). Obvious early contenders like Les Miserables, The Great Gatsby, and Lincoln, could end up being duds. If nothing special happens during the festival circuit, maybe The Hobbit ends up being on the same level as the other LOTR films and the Academy goes for something like that again. Maybe the Academy overlooks the Django controversy and finally awards Tarantino in the big categories with his western epic. Maybe The Master is on the level of TWBB and they realize that they need to reward PTA. Maybe Beasts of the Southern Wild carries its momentum all the way from Sundance and remains the critical and audience favorite.

Anything can happen.
Definitely true, but I still think the acting categories are easier to predict, as I pointed out last year with Actress. The academy can be lazy with their favorite actors. Unless Lincoln is a huge turd, Day Lewis will get in.

I'm actually interested to see what happens with Amour. It will be a huge critical hit, but can it get other nominations besides Foreign film? I can see the movie winning Best Picture from some of the critics groups. I don't have enough faith in the Academy to nominate Emmanuelle Riva, even if she deserves it. I think she can win one of the big Critic's prizes though.
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 07-19-2012, 09:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by QUENTIN View Post
It sort of is, but not nearly as much as people think. Here's Bourne's list from this time last year for instance:



By the time awards season is in full swing, if you pay attention you can probably predict with about 70% accuracy who is going to be nominated and who is going to win, but it's really not derisively foreseeable as many like to believe.
What I said was more about the boring and predictable Academy voters not anything negative about Bourne. Just want to be clear. :-)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
Bingo. These predictions are just in good fun and while some of these will certainly be nominated, several of them will end up being busts and there will be several movies that we probably haven't even heard of yet that will sneak into the conversation after making splashes at TIFF, Venice, Telluride, etc. You can never really know what will happen this early (which you nicely pointed out with your Slumdog, Artist and Hurt Locker examples). At this point, there are so many ways it could go. The most likely scenario based on the past few years is that something we haven't heard of ends up winning (hell, even King's Speech, which was as obvious a choice as they come, hadn't even really been heard of until it played in Toronto). Obvious early contenders like Les Miserables, The Great Gatsby, and Lincoln, could end up being duds. If nothing special happens during the festival circuit, maybe The Hobbit ends up being on the same level as the other LOTR films and the Academy goes for something like that again. Maybe the Academy overlooks the Django controversy and finally awards Tarantino in the big categories with his western epic. Maybe The Master is on the level of TWBB and they realize that they need to reward PTA. Maybe Beasts of the Southern Wild carries its momentum all the way from Sundance and remains the critical and audience favorite.

Anything can happen.
Just curious, is your list what you think will be nominated or what you want to see nominated?
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 07-19-2012, 10:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Erroneous View Post
Just curious, is your list what you think will be nominated or what you want to see nominated?
It's what I think will be nominated, or rather, the best guess I can give at this point based on my knowledge of what is coming out and what the Academy likes.
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 07-19-2012, 11:04 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
It's what I think will be nominated, or rather, the best guess I can give at this point based on my knowledge of what is coming out and what the Academy likes.

Yeah, that is sad. You should make a list of what you think should be nominated. I bet your list is better than theirs.
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 07-19-2012, 03:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigred760 View Post
Nice.

I don't think Daniel Day Lewis will win another Oscar; he has two and no actor has three Best Actor Oscars. I wouldn't be surprised if he was the first, but I don't the Academy will award an actor a third.

I'm also curious to see if TDKR gets a Best Picture nod since TDK was the supposed reason for the Academy expanding the field to ten nominees.
I can't even describe how much I hate this nonsense. I wish the Academy would just award the people who deserve to win regardless of how many wins they've already had. Day - Lewis is one of the greatest actors we've seen and if he blows us all away in Lincoln, he deserves another Oscar.

Too early to make any real predictions since Gatsby, Django, Hobbit, and Les Miserables could all be awful so we'll see but I would LOVE to see Nolan get a nomination (he'll never win for TDKR) for Best Director
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 07-23-2012, 11:50 PM
Why the hell not.

Edit: Disclaimer, does anyone know for sure who's actually the lead in "The Master"? For the sake of this wildly offbase set of predictions, I'm gonna assume it's Phoenix. Which means it'll probably be Hoffman. But whatever.

Best Picture
-Anna Karenina
-Beasts of the Southern Wild
-Django Unchained
-Hyde Park on Hudson
-Les Miserables
-Life of Pi
-Lincoln
-The Master
-Moonrise Kingdom
-The Sessions

Best Actor in a Leading Role
-Bill Murray - Hyde Park on Hudson
-Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
-Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
-Joaquin Phoenix - The Master
-John Hawkes - The Sessions

Best Actress in a Leading Role
-Helen Hunt - The Sessions
-Keira Knightley - Anna Karenina
-Laura Linney - Hyde Park on Hudson
-Marion Cotillard - Rust and Bone
-Quvenzhané Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
-Dwight Henry - Beasts of the Southern Wild
-Leonardo DiCaprio - Django Unchained
-Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
-Russell Crowe - Les Miserables
-Woody Harrelson - Seven Psychopaths

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
-Amy Adams - The Master
-Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
-Olivia Williams - Hyde Park on Hudson
-Sally Field - Lincoln
-Samantha Barks - Les Miserables

Best Director
-Ang Lee - Life of Pi
-Benh Zeitlin - Beasts of the Southern Wild
-Paul Thomas Anderson - The Master
-Steven Spielberg - Lincoln
-Tom Hooper - Les Miserables

Best Original Screenplay
-Ben Lewin - The Sessions
-Paul Thomas Anderson - The Master
-Richard Nelson - Hyde Park on Hudson
-Quentin Tarantino - Django Unchained
-Wes Anderson/Roman Coppola - Moonrise Kingdom

Best Adapted Screenplay
-Benh Zeitlin/Lucy Alibar - Beasts of the Southern Wild
-David Magee - Life of Pi
-Tony Kushner/Paul Webb - Lincoln
-William Nicholson - Les Miserables
-Tom Stoppard - Anna Karenina

Best Cinematography
-Andrew Lesnie - The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
-Claudio Miranda - Life of Pi
-Danny Cohen - Les Miserables
-Mihai Malaimare Jr. - The Master
-Seamus McGarvey - Anna Karenina

Best Original Score
-John Williams - Lincoln
-Jonny Greenwood - The Master
-Hans Zimmer - The Dark Knight Rises
-Howard Shore - The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
-Mychael Danna - Life of Pi

Best Visual Effects
-The Avengers
-The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
-Life of Pi
(if more than 3, then add The Dark Knight Rises and John Carter

Best Animated Film
-Brave
-Frankenweenie
-ParaNorman
-Rise of the Guardians
-Wreck-It Ralph

So yeah. I'm going big with The Master. It just looks so good between the performances and the look and feel of the film. Plus the Oscars can't just continuously pass over PTA can they? I guess lifetime omissions of Hitchcock, Kubrick, etc. say yes but still. I think Les Miserables would be the closest to spoiling The Master's big day, but Hooper's Oscar-baitery JUST worked, and I think the fact that he and The King's Speech won so handily and so recently will urge Academy voters to go a different direction. Life of Pi seems to have some surefire Oscar buzz behind it, and who knows how long the festival buzz will last on Beasts of the Southern Wild and/or The Sessions. I think Django gets in, but I think Tarantino misses out as Zeitlin sneaks by him.

Those I left out for Best Picture:

-The Great Gatsby - The 11th man out. I think the Academy's gonna end up giving DiCaprio the Oscar for his performance in BOTH Django and Gatsby (sorta like Winslet with The Reader and Revolutionary Road), but I think it's gonna be Django that gets the love while Gatsby sits out. Should get some nominations in all the Baz Luhrmann Awards (set design, make-up, costume, etc.)

-The Dark Knight Rises - Unless it gets in as some sort of 'amalgamation lifetime achievement award' for the trilogy. On it's own, there's no way it deserves a BP nomination IMO, though I liked it and think it's a good (albeit not perfect) end. Still, it could get the LOTR3 treatment and get all the Awards the Academy realizes it should've gave out the first two movies.

-Zero Dark Thirty - Eh, I can't really see ANOTHER Kathryn Bigelow/Mark Boal Iraq war movie getting any real traction. Sure it'll be a good film though.

-Flight - Looks good from the trailers, but Denzel's last few + Zemeckis's last few = No. Could end up surprising though.

-The Hobbit - They gave 45 fucking Oscars to Return of the King. You've had your share.

-To the Wonder - No way this comes out this year.


THERE.

Last edited by izzy2024; 07-24-2012 at 12:07 AM..
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 07-24-2012, 06:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by izzy2024 View Post
-Zero Dark Thirty - Eh, I can't really see ANOTHER Kathryn Bigelow/Mark Boal Iraq war movie getting any real traction. Sure it'll be a good film though.
There's definitely a "been there, done that" feeling that I'm getting from this. It probably won't match the reviews that The Hurt Locker got, so that will hurt it too.

Even though it looks good, I hope Bigelow does something else after this.
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 07-24-2012, 11:46 PM
Well since To the Wonder made it into TIFF that means it'll probably come out this year. So that could change some things. Because I could see it being a major contender.
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 07-24-2012, 11:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ilovemovies View Post
Well since To the Wonder made it into TIFF that means it'll probably come out this year. So that could change some things. Because I could see it being a major contender.
I dunno. I think a lot of voters are Malicked out.
Reply With Quote
  #21  
Old 07-24-2012, 11:53 PM
Are you kidding? People love Malick. And he's due to win finally I think.
Reply With Quote
  #22  
Old 07-25-2012, 12:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ilovemovies View Post
Are you kidding? People love Malick. And he's due to win finally I think.
Well the only people that matter here are the academy voters and despite their throwing nearly obligatory nominations his way I have a hard time seeing him gaining an actual win in one of the major categories.
Reply With Quote
  #23  
Old 07-25-2012, 12:31 AM
I don't see Malick ever winning an Academy Award. Sadly I feel like he's one of those directors that's just gonna go underappreciated for the longest time.

Maybe he'll get one of those honorary awards a decade from now or something.
Reply With Quote
  #24  
Old 07-25-2012, 01:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by magjournal View Post
I don't see Malick ever winning an Academy Award. Sadly I feel like he's one of those directors that's just gonna go underappreciated for the longest time.

Maybe he'll get one of those honorary awards a decade from now or something.
Knowing the Academy's taste, this will sadly be true.

Malick can take comfort in knowing that he will join the likes of Stanley Kubrick, Alfred Hitchcock, Akira Kurosawa, Ingmar Bergman, and other directing legends who never won a directing Oscar.
Reply With Quote
  #25  
Old 07-25-2012, 01:54 AM
I would like to see Tom Hardy and Michael Cain grab supporting actor nods for Dark Knight Rises.

And I can already tell you that Denzel Washington's performance in Flight will be the one to beat! Might even see Robert Zemeckis make a return visit to nominated land!
Reply With Quote
  #26  
Old 07-25-2012, 02:33 PM

The Master is gonna win a bunch of shit.
Reply With Quote
  #27  
Old 07-25-2012, 10:34 PM
Bret Easton Ellis tweeted that he was at the academy screening of The Dark Knight Rises and there was "zero love" for it, people afterwards were saying they didn't think it'll get nominations beyond technical nods. http://www.guardian.co.uk/film/2012/...-oscars-judges

SkyNet, if Tom Hardy was going to get put up (which I doubt) it'd be much more likely for Lawless, which he's pretty good in, all be it basically doing an impression of John Wayne. The fact the first name on the credits of Lawless is Harvey Weinstein may help.

Actually if Lawless goes down fine, I could see Harvey trying to get some acting noms, maybe Jessica Chastain for supporting actress.
Reply With Quote
  #28  
Old 07-25-2012, 11:57 PM
I don't think TDKR will get any acting nominations and if it does, it definitely won't be Tom Hardy. If it does, Caine is possibility as well as Oldman. But not Hardy.
Reply With Quote
  #29  
Old 07-27-2012, 04:15 AM
joker deserved to be the best actor, not supporting role actor,he is the best. no one could take that place
Reply With Quote
  #30  
Old 07-27-2012, 10:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ilovemovies View Post
I don't think TDKR will get any acting nominations and if it does, it definitely won't be Tom Hardy. If it does, Caine is possibility as well as Oldman. But not Hardy.
I don't think any of this will happen. The film will do very well in technical nods (cinematography, score, visual effects, etc.) but not the bigger ones.
Reply With Quote
  #31  
Old 07-28-2012, 06:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpikeDurden View Post
I don't think any of this will happen. The film will do very well in technical nods (cinematography, score, visual effects, etc.) but not the bigger ones.
I agree. I don't think anyone will get nominated either. I was just saying IF somebody were to get nominated it would likely be either Caine or Oldman. But yeah, I don't see that happening either.
Reply With Quote
  #32  
Old 08-01-2012, 12:59 AM
Let's talk Honorary Oscars.

I thought about doing a separate thread, but I think it's fine in here since it's still an Oscar.

Who do you think will get one this year? Who deserves one? Throw out some names.

Last edited by Matchbox225; 08-01-2012 at 01:03 AM..
Reply With Quote
  #33  
Old 08-06-2012, 06:46 PM
The Great Gatsby has been bumped to summer 2013 by Warner Bros.

Source: http://www.comingsoon.net/news/movienews.php?id=93316
Reply With Quote
  #34  
Old 08-07-2012, 02:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JCR View Post
The Great Gatsby has been bumped to summer 2013 by Warner Bros.

Source: http://www.comingsoon.net/news/movienews.php?id=93316


And I was really looking forward to it!
Reply With Quote
  #35  
Old 10-16-2012, 12:57 PM
I guess it is hard to say without seeing it, but I think Skyfall is definitely in with a shot of being nominated given how much it's being raved about.
Reply With Quote
  #36  
Old 10-16-2012, 03:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JCR View Post
I guess it is hard to say without seeing it, but I think Skyfall is definitely in with a shot of being nominated given how much it's being raved about.
There's always an outside chance, but I remember there being similar speculation about Casino Royale after it received rave reviews and it didn't get anything. Casino Royale even had some extremely positive Academy screenings, but it just didn't happen. However, Mendes is more well-regarded, so you never know. I'd say its best chances are in the technical areas, as well as Bardem (who apparently is great). The supporting actor category is packed though.

On another note, as it stands now it's looking like Argo is the current frontrunner, with Silver Linings just behind. Life of Pi and Lincoln have also been positively received, but people haven't been as over the moon for those as they were for Argo and Silver Linings. I still feel like Les Miserables is going to take it in the end though.

Last edited by Bourne101; 10-16-2012 at 03:54 PM..
Reply With Quote
  #37  
Old 10-17-2012, 12:49 PM
Some Bond-related Oscar trivia:
-Only one James Bond movie has received more than one Oscar nomination, which was The Spy Who Loved Me. It was nominated for Best Original Score, Best Original Song, and Best Set Decoration (now called Best Production Design).
-No Bond movie has received a single Oscar nomination since For Your Eyes Only in 1981.
-Only two Bond movies have won Oscars: Goldfinger won Best Sound Effects, and Thunderball won Best Visual Effects.

Based on this track record, it doesn't look too favorable for Skyfall. I think it would have to get across-the-board "best Bond movie ever" reviews in order to have a shot in any of the big categories. I do think, however, that it could get a few technical nominations. I think it's probably in for Best Original Song unless the Academy declares it ineligible (which is a possibility, unfortunately). It could also get into the sound categories and possibly Best Cinematography (it's Roger Deakins, after all). I don't see anything beyond that.

Anyway, here's what I think of Best Picture right now:

Good bets:
Les Miserables (will get in even if reviews aren't fantastic)
Lincoln (same thing...if War Horse got in, I think this will too)
Argo (potential frontrunner if Les Miserables underwhelms)
Silver Linings Playbook (it will get a lot of "what's the big deal?" reactions, but it will still have enough of a passionate following to make it in)
Life of Pi (could be this year's Hugo)

In the mix, but uncertain:
The Master (the critics will need to really get behind it at the end of the year)
The Impossible (the movie a lot of people seem to be underestimating)
Zero Dark Thirty (it can't be seen as The Hurt Locker Lite)
Django Unchained (it can't be seen as Inglourious Basterds Lite)

Lesser possibilities that could get boosts in the precursor season:
Hitchcock
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Cloud Atlas
Moonrise Kingdom
Amour
The Sessions
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Anna Karenina
Promised Land
Flight


Anything beyond those choices would surprise me.
Reply With Quote
  #38  
Old 10-17-2012, 03:23 PM
Skyfall has got rave reviews from the UK press, the most negative one still gave it 3 out of 5. If there was 5 spots for best picture I'd say no chance but given there are up to 10, it might happen I think anyway. Depends if Sony push it as a contender I guess.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-19940764
Reply With Quote
  #39  
Old 10-18-2012, 07:29 PM
From http://www.interviewmagazine.com -

Quote:
Joaquin Phoenix who doesn't seem to care for the Academy Awards at the moment and even said they are "total, utter bullshit."

During his interview with Elvis Mitchell, he stated: "I think it's bullshit. I think it's total, utter bullshit, and I don't want to be a part of it. I don't believe in it. It's a carrot, but it's the worst-tasting carrot I've ever tasted in my whole life. I don't want this carrot. It's totally subjective. Pitting people against each other … It's the stupidest thing in the whole world."

Phoenix was nominated for best supporting actor for Gladiator and for best actor for Walk the Line for the Academy Awards. On his own nomination, Phoenix says: "It was one of the most uncomfortable periods of my life when Walk the Line was going through all the awards stuff and all that. I never want to have that experience again. I don't know how to explain it — and it's not like I'm in this place where I think I'm just above it — but I just don't ever want to get comfortable with that part of things."
Hope no one bet on him winning!
Reply With Quote
  #40  
Old 10-18-2012, 07:56 PM
That won't prevent him from being nominated, I think. Maybe winning though.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump