#521  
Old 01-14-2013, 12:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gordon View Post
Is anyone starting to think that with both the snubbing of Affleck and all the Argo love that it may come out with BP, and then that there is enough anti-Spielberg sentiment that those guys, with no Affleck/Bigelow in the picture, might all wind up voting Haneke in for the surprise win? I mean, he seems to me the logical person the non-Spielberg voting block would want to go to at this stage. Am I crazy to think that an Argo/Haneke BP/BD is a decent albeit outside possibility?
I wouldn't necessarily predict it, but it's probably more of a possibility than a lot of people think, and that includes Michael Haneke. See, it's pretty clear by now that a lot of people in Hollywood really love Argo. Just look at the standing ovations Ben Affleck got at the Golden Globes and Critics' Choice Awards. We'll see what happens once the guilds start announcing their winners, but I think Argo has at least as good a shot as any other movie nominated at winning both the PGA and DGA. If that happens, I don't know how Argo wouldn't be the frontrunner to win Best Picture, regardless of Affleck not being nominated for Best Director.

And as for Haneke? Well, playing off the hypothetical scenario in which Argo wins Best Picture, all of those votes going to Best Picture that would normally go hand-in-hand with Best Director will be forced to go to somewhere else. Now, just think of this: the Academy's decision to make the time between nominations and the ceremony longer this year is going to benefit one of the nominees more than any of the others, and that's got to be Amour. It's almost certainly the least seen of the nine nominees as of right now, and its five nominations will be all the incentive most voters need to make it a point to see it before casting their ballots. If Affleck wins the DGA, then all bets are off, because Best Director would have to be seen as wide open, and that would have to even include Michael Haneke as a possibility. I mean, I can't imagine they're truly in a rush to give Spielberg a third Oscar, especially when his film is not an overwhelming frontrunner or anything (not yet, anyway...that could still change with the guilds). Ang Lee? He's already won too, and fairly recently at that. David O. Russell is only winning if Silver Linings Playbook catches on so much that the Academy can't help but vote for it across the board. And Benh Zeitlin is definitely in the position of "the nomination is the award." So, I mean...there's a chance--a very small chance--that Haneke could find himself greatly benefited by his position in the race.

I'm not saying it will happen. I'm just framing a realistic scenario in which it could happen. And for the record, Michael Haneke winning Best Director would be just about the most cinephilic choice in Oscar history. But let's not get our hopes up.
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  #522  
Old 01-14-2013, 12:57 AM
Well, I'm glad my thought got a good deal of attention from some of the clever people on the board. Perhaps we can hash out the basic logic behind the scenario in question. Let's break out the old college logic course:

1. Spielberg will win Best Director if Lincoln sweeps the guild awards.

2. Argo will be the favourite for Best Picture if and only if Argo sweeps the guild awards.

3. If Argo sweeps the guild awards, then Argo will (with the momentum started at the GGs) be the favourite for Best Picture.

4. If Lincoln is not the favourite for Best Picture, then Spielberg has a high chance of losing.

Now is the controversial one:

5. If Spielberg loses Best Director, and there is no other director who is attached to a film which has momentum, then Michael Haneke will become the de facto choice for voters, and therefore win Best Director.

It's basically a race of three. Zeitlin is out for obvious reasons, and Russell can't win without a DGA award. So then the race is between Spielberg/Lee/Haneke. Now, there is a lot of sentiment against Spielberg, so I'm suggesting that if Lincoln has negative momentum going in, I think Spielberg is probably out. If that happens, I think the voters will go with Haneke before they go with Lee.
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  #523  
Old 01-14-2013, 01:07 AM
Jodie Foster seemed like she was utterly plastered. It was such a strange, train wreck of a speech.

Funniest moment was definitely Kristin Wiig (will she be my wife? ) and Will Ferrell. Although a close second would be Amy Poehler's Kathryn Bigelow/James Cameron torture comment. And their loser comment and Tina Fey telling Taylor Swift to stay away from Michael J. Fox's son.
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  #524  
Old 01-14-2013, 01:23 AM
Highlight from the 70th Golden Globes - videos including Poehler and Fey's open, Ferrell and Wiig knowing all the nominees, Lawrence's Speech and of course Jodie Foster's coming out party - http://wp.me/p2CCWq-2yf
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  #525  
Old 01-14-2013, 02:23 AM
My Globe impressions, Hollywood's Robin Hood
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  #526  
Old 01-14-2013, 09:19 PM
OK, so it's official I think. Sasha Stone is starting to piss me off. Bourne, Lazy Boy, and whoever else go ahead, you can say it.

Her forcefulness with Lincoln is getting way too excessive, even though I still very much appreciate when she says good things about others (last night included Waltz, Tarantino, Chastain...) but fuck me man, she keeps going on and on and on about Lincoln and how people who think Lincoln shouldn't win should unfollow her and make life easier for everyone and all that. I can see the obnoxious childishishness that you guys were talking about before...

Anyways, she's got a poll up on her site with some silly addages as to why she thinks which films should or shouldn't win or have any chances etc. Below is what I posted in the comments section, I figured I'd put it here as well just to start off the question again. The question is, basically, do you think Argo has a chance against Lincoln?

My thoughts reflect the state of the BP race right now:

-------------
Not sure if those thoughts after the film’s title in the opening poll are Sasha’s, about what she thinks are the reasons behind winning or not winning, but it feels weird having to agree with them if you want to put your 2c. in.

I picked Lincoln because it’s the most Academy friendly film of the whole lot, has the weight of all importance on its shoulders and if people forgot that, Bill Clinton was there to remind them last night. Mixing politics and movies like that really left a bad taste in my mouth and it just felt wrong, kinda desperate from Spielberg’s/studio’s part. Just my opinion, hope it’s cool to say it even though I know that Sasha thinks the whole Clinton thing was the best thing that happened last night, at an entertainment awards show.

That said, Lincoln isn’t winning because of its tremendous box office success (Life of Pi or Les Miz would be considered the major competition if that was the case) but because it’s beginning to feel like a vote for anything other than Lincoln is a vote against America and don’t you love your country?

If it was just about cinematic/artistic merit, the choice would be a tough one between Amour, Zero Dark Thirty and Life of Pi, easily the greatest cinematic experiences from the whole bunch and all three deserving of a three-way tie for Best Picture. Amour leaves you a bit cold, isn’t the kind of film that wins Best Picture at the Academy Awards, it’s more like the kind of film that wins Palme D’Ors at Cannes and that distinction between the two awards bodies should remain. So I’d respectfully put Amour aside and give Haneke the directing Oscar and Riva the acting Oscar as a salute to their beautiful film.

Then comes Zero Dark vs. Life of Pi. Zero Dark is just as important for Americans to know about and understand as Lincoln is, but the COMPLETELY ASININE torture issue has hurt its chances with the narrow-minded voters drastically and, like Amour, is a bit too dark and detached for the Academy Awards (No Country for Old Men and Hurt Locker were definitely an anomaly, but it seems they went back to their old ways after that…) which leaves them with Life of Pi. A film that has it all and in 3D too. Would be a strange kind of consolation prize for Avatar, a wonderful way to salute Ang Lee after messing up Brokeback Mountain, a film that is for everyone, a universal story not specifically designed for Americans, and far and away the most cinematic of the whole lot.

So my heart says Life of Pi would be most deserving, even though I actually like Zero Dark and Amour more (but that’s cause I’m into darker shit) but the brain, which calculates in all of the politics that permeate Oscar season like a viral infestation, says Lincoln (not because of box office, again I have to stress this because of the strange addendums to the titles in the poll)

As for dear Argo, I fear that all of this much deserved love it’s getting is just a sign that the film is loved and appreciated a bit more than the bigger guys in the room, considering who it came from. Come Academy Award time, a vote for Argo would be a vote against America as Bill Clinton’s appearance implied yesterday.
-------------

So no, I don't think Argo will win and as much as I liked Lincoln when I saw it, and even liked it still when I saw it a second time, the more I think about it as compared to the other BP nominees here the more I see how, in a perfect world, it shouldn't be winning anything except Daniel Day-Lewis and Adapted Screenplay.
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  #527  
Old 01-14-2013, 09:33 PM
Great, long, well-explained post until you very abruptly end with...

Quote:
Originally Posted by DaMovieMan View Post
in a perfect world, it shouldn't be winning anything except Daniel Day-Lewis and Adapted Screenplay.
...this, with no explanation. Why is DDL over Phoenix a perfect world?
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  #528  
Old 01-14-2013, 09:38 PM
It's a strange situation. There doesn't seem to be a ton of overwhelming support for Lincoln. You hear Tapley and Thompson talk about talking to people in the Academy, and the movies that people seem to have a lot of passion for are Argo, Silver Linings Playbook, Amour and Life of Pi. Lincoln never seems to come up. The way everything has played out though, all signs still point to Lincoln. Argo doesn't have the director nomination, O. Russell didn't get the DGA nomination, Amour was ignored by SAG and DGA, and while Life of Pi is right there with Lincoln in terms of recognition, it lacks the "importance" that Lincoln apparently has and doesn't have a public figure that can vouch for its greatness and importance on live television. It just kind of feels like everything else has been muscled out of contention, leaving only Lincoln standing.

It would honestly be kind of awesome if Ang Lee just swooped in and ran away with everything.

Last edited by Bourne101; 01-14-2013 at 09:44 PM..
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  #529  
Old 01-14-2013, 10:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gordon View Post
Great, long, well-explained post until you very abruptly end with...



...this, with no explanation. Why is DDL over Phoenix a perfect world?
My eyes are blood shot and I need to get some shut eye, otherwise I would have definitely explained.

I was pulling for Phoenix at the GGs so much, even picked him to win it in a "WTF DID THAT JUST HAPPEN?" moment that would have easily been the highlight of the whole night, but then Daniel Day-Lewis won (of course) and I realized I wasn't angry because DDL is the best thing about Lincoln, and I just appreciate the meticulousness he brings to the craft of acting, it's not for nothing that the only joke Tina Fey and Amy Poehler can make about the guy is that he is so damn good he played E.T. when he was younger and no one noticed. He's just that good, that in any awards year it doesn't feel wrong when he wins.

Now having said all that, I was floored by Phoenix's performance and I'm having a hard time trying to decide which of the two actually would be more deserving - the two performances are such worlds apart it's crazy. Instinct vs. Method, Spontaneity vs. Research and so on...and I don't wanna say oh Phoenix deserves it more because he's never won one, that talk is for the birds.

What I really believe is that in a perfect world, it would be a tie between DDL and Phoenix, because that's exactly how it should be I feel (like that one year the Best Actress tied, 1968 or something?)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
It's a strange situation. There doesn't seem to be a ton of overwhelming support for Lincoln. You hear Tapley and Thompson talk about talking to people in the Academy, and the movies that people seem to have a lot of passion for are Argo, Silver Linings Playbook, Amour and Life of Pi. Lincoln never seems to come up. The way everything has played out though, all signs still point to Lincoln. Argo doesn't have the director nomination, O. Russell didn't get the DGA nomination, Amour was ignored by SAG and DGA, and while Life of Pi is right there with Lincoln in terms of recognition, it lacks the "importance" that Lincoln apparently has and doesn't have a public figure that can vouch for its greatness and importance on live television. It just kind of feels like everything else has been muscled out of contention, leaving only Lincoln standing.

It would honestly be kind of awesome if Ang Lee just swooped in and ran away with everything.
Oh man, that would be so awesome...

I guess the upcoming guilds will decide everything. If DGA goes in favor of Affleck, like many seem to be predicting now, BP chances of Argo skyrocket. Also, rumors abound that Argo might be getting a re-release after all this love. That could sway things too.

Last edited by DaMovieMan; 01-14-2013 at 10:11 PM..
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  #530  
Old 01-14-2013, 10:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gordon View Post
Well, I'm glad my thought got a good deal of attention from some of the clever people on the board. Perhaps we can hash out the basic logic behind the scenario in question. Let's break out the old college logic course:

1. Spielberg will win Best Director if Lincoln sweeps the guild awards.

2. Argo will be the favourite for Best Picture if and only if Argo sweeps the guild awards.

3. If Argo sweeps the guild awards, then Argo will (with the momentum started at the GGs) be the favourite for Best Picture.

4. If Lincoln is not the favourite for Best Picture, then Spielberg has a high chance of losing.

Now is the controversial one:

5. If Spielberg loses Best Director, and there is no other director who is attached to a film which has momentum, then Michael Haneke will become the de facto choice for voters, and therefore win Best Director.

It's basically a race of three. Zeitlin is out for obvious reasons, and Russell can't win without a DGA award. So then the race is between Spielberg/Lee/Haneke. Now, there is a lot of sentiment against Spielberg, so I'm suggesting that if Lincoln has negative momentum going in, I think Spielberg is probably out. If that happens, I think the voters will go with Haneke before they go with Lee.
I pretty much agree with this. I don't think Spielberg will win Best Director unless Lincoln wins Best Picture, and David O. Russell DEFINITELY won't win Best Director unless Silver Linings Playbook wins Best Picture. I believe it's a both-or-neither situation for each of those films. So if Argo wins Best Picture, I think it's either Haneke or Lee for Best Director, and as of right now, I'd actually (though perhaps foolishly) guess Haneke.
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  #531  
Old 01-16-2013, 07:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tayzlor View Post
His dramas are among the most self-important, pretentious, offensive works to permeate public consciousness, from the misguided and tasteless Schindler's List to the pro-war, jingoistic Saving Private Ryan.
Hardly on either count, I'd really like to hear your reasoning especially regarding Schindler's List being "tasteless". I'll keep an open mind, enlighten me. I once called Saving Private Ryan pro war. It really isn't. Jingoistic it most certainly is but the film hardly glorifies war at all... Again. Enlighten me.

Sorry I'm kind of late to the party, those noms are eye brow raising in a good and bad way. Congrats though Harvey, you've proven you are truly the most ridiculous man in Hollywood.
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  #532  
Old 01-16-2013, 10:26 PM
I love that Hanake and Spielberg are nominated in the same category, knowing how Hanake feels about Schindler's List.

A few more things:

Three of Philip Seymour Hoffman's nominations have come for films that co-starred Amy Adams. She's a good luck charm for him.

Helen Hunt is a nominee and Seth MacFarlane is hosting. I wonder if he'll have the balls go to after her like he's done several times on Family Guy. Too bad Renee Zellweger wasn't a nominee this year.
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  #533  
Old 01-17-2013, 12:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Matchbox225 View Post
I love that Hanake and Spielberg are nominated in the same category, knowing how Hanake feels about Schindler's List.
How does he feel about it? (I think I'm gonna like this)
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  #534  
Old 01-17-2013, 05:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaMovieMan View Post
How does he feel about it? (I think I'm gonna like this)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y_osgrcpes4

Last edited by Bourne101; 01-17-2013 at 05:51 PM..
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  #535  
Old 01-17-2013, 07:29 PM
Well that certainly answers itself... I guess I never thought about it quite like that. However in that context wouldn't the vast majority of hollywoods historically based films be dumb and repulsive? Or is it just because its about the holocaust? Would every film from Passion of he Christ all he way down to something like The Great Escape or Stalag 17 be considered irresponsible for the same reason? Perhaps I'm missing Mr. Haneke's point and granted I've always found the shower scene in Schindler's List to be kind of strange.
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  #536  
Old 01-17-2013, 09:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
Heh.

Yeah, Haneke seems like such an odd man out from that group of people. By that answer about Schindler's List, I would imagine he doesn't care for Spielberg's cinema as a whole at all, since Spielberg is such a master manipulator of emotions and definitely doesn't adhere to Haneke's belief about a filmmaker's responsibility i.e. enabling the audience to remain independent and free of manipulation.

Briare, I think Haneke was specifically talking about historical figures or atrocities like the Holocaust which have had a huge impact. I'm not sure Stalag 17 would qualify.
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  #537  
Old 01-17-2013, 09:37 PM
I'm surprised Hanake even participated in the writer's roundtable. I think he would have been more appropriate for The Director's one.
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  #538  
Old 01-21-2013, 09:55 PM
Joaquin Phoenix after receiving Best Actor from London Film Critics:

Quote:
I struggle with the idea of winning awards for acting. Stating I’m Best Actor for something as subjective as film seems strange to me. To the uninitiated it implies I’m solely responsible for the creation and implementation of the character. I am not. I suppose that’s why we thank our colleagues. There are those who you all know such as Paul Thomas Anderson, to whom I am eternally grateful – a man who has persistently searched for the truth. I am fortunate to have been under his guidance. Philip Seymour Hoffman for his patience and advice. Amy Adams for being angry. Megan Ellison and everyone at Annapurna for their support of the film and ensuring that I was able to cover my mortgage. But there are many others who you do not know by name such as Mike Kenna, who I believe was the grip but he did 20 different jobs so I can’t be sure; Adam Somner, the first assistant director; Karen Ramirez in the office; Tommy – I don’t know your last name… there are too many to list. The truth is, you cannot separate my work from their’s. We were a unit bolstered by the same goal: to do our part in helping Paul to achieve his vision. I view this award as recognition of all of our work. I am very cognisant of the fact that for me this award is an encouragement to continue my lifelong passion of being an actor. I will not squander this high regard. P.S. There’s an up-and-coming actor named Daniel who’s in a movie called Lincoln. You should check it out.
If I lived in Hollywood, I'd be picketing for this guy's Oscar.
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  #539  
Old 01-21-2013, 10:31 PM
Haha. I must admit, just reading that, it's a great speech. Is there video of Joaquin accepting the award? I'd love to actually see him say that speech.
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  #540  
Old 01-21-2013, 10:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaMovieMan View Post
Joaquin Phoenix after receiving Best Actor from London Film Critics:



If I lived in Hollywood, I'd be picketing for this guy's Oscar.

Amazing! I councur, I too would be picketing.

Last edited by Hucksta G; 01-21-2013 at 10:35 PM..
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  #541  
Old 01-23-2013, 09:12 AM
After watching The Impossible, as great as Chastain and Lawrence are, I'm personally rooting for Naomi Watts to win. What her character goes through is really rough and Watts is incredible in the role. She's really put through the ringer in the movie. It's a very tough and demanding part, both emotionally and physically.
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  #542  
Old 01-24-2013, 08:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ilovemovies View Post
After watching The Impossible, as great as Chastain and Lawrence are, I'm personally rooting for Naomi Watts to win. What her character goes through is really rough and Watts is incredible in the role. She's really put through the ringer in the movie. It's a very tough and demanding part, both emotionally and physically.
Amen! I've been trying to tell people this since watching The Impossible at TIFF in September. My favourite film of 2012 btw, absolutely under-appreciated.
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  #543  
Old 01-25-2013, 08:50 AM
The Impossible is great overall but it's a bit too sappy in its second half for it to stand next to the other great films of the year, imo. Watts was terrific, but McGregor is the one who really impressed me and he should have been nominated instead of say, oh I don't know, Alan friekin Arkin?! Whatever..we've been through that..
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  #544  
Old 01-25-2013, 10:16 PM
Watts has an uphill climb because she's the only nominee who's film wasn't nominated for Best Picture. In fact, she's her films only nomination. I actually think she just barely made it.

Usually for an actor to win while being their films only nomination, they need to be undeniable (ex: Forest Whitaker, Charlize Theron)

I don't think Watts is that. The other nominees aren't either, but the support for their films puts them ahead. I think Watts is only ahead of Wallis.

But look on the bright side, this sets her up well because she has the Princess Diana movie later this year and if she gets amazing reviews for that, she could be undeniable there, much like Helen Mirren was for The Queen.

Last edited by Matchbox225; 01-25-2013 at 10:20 PM..
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  #545  
Old 01-25-2013, 10:50 PM
Having just seen Beats of the Southern Wild, I have to say that I am even more Baffled by Affleck & Bigelow being snubbed. The movie is fairly boring and even if they wanted to give a little seen small movie an oscar bump, the direction really isnt anything to write home about, not the way Affleck or Bigelow's films were directed.
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  #546  
Old 01-25-2013, 11:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SkyNet View Post
Having just seen Beats of the Southern Wild, I have to say that I am even more Baffled by Affleck & Bigelow being snubbed. The movie is fairly boring and even if they wanted to give a little seen small movie an oscar bump, the direction really isnt anything to write home about, not the way Affleck or Bigelow's films were directed.
I enjoyed Beasts but I was a little uneasy with the way it appeared to be romanticising extreme poverty. I'm also surprised the academy have got behind it as much as they have.
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  #547  
Old 01-26-2013, 04:21 PM
PGA to be announced tonight!

My predix for SAG's tomorrow:

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis (Most likely upset: Hugh Jackman)
Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence (Most likely upset: Jessica Chastain)
Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones (Most likely upset: Phillip Seymour Hoffman)
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hatheway (locked)
Best Ensemble: Lincoln (likely upset: Argo)
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  #548  
Old 01-27-2013, 12:23 AM
The announcement of the PGA winner is just minutes away. My guess is Argo, but I could definitely see it going to Lincoln too. In fact, I wouldn't be all that shocked if Silver Linings Playbook won.

My SAG predictions:

Best Ensemble Cast- Silver Linings Playbook
Alt: Lincoln

Best Actor- Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Alt: I don't know. Maybe Hugh Jackman, but I'd be stunned if DDL lost.

Best Actress- Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Alt: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

Best Supporting Actor- Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Alt: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Best Supporting Actress- Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Alt: Sally Field, Lincoln
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  #549  
Old 01-27-2013, 01:18 AM
Argo takes the PGA.

It's still not a complete lock for Best Picture, but I think it'll happen. Affleck's BP Oscar will be both a deserved win and a compensation award for his directing.
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  #550  
Old 01-27-2013, 01:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Matchbox225 View Post
Watts has an uphill climb because she's the only nominee who's film wasn't nominated for Best Picture. In fact, she's her films only nomination. I actually think she just barely made it.

Usually for an actor to win while being their films only nomination, they need to be undeniable (ex: Forest Whitaker, Charlize Theron)

I don't think Watts is that. The other nominees aren't either, but the support for their films puts them ahead. I think Watts is only ahead of Wallis.

But look on the bright side, this sets her up well because she has the Princess Diana movie later this year and if she gets amazing reviews for that, she could be undeniable there, much like Helen Mirren was for The Queen.

I think Watts deserves to win but won't. She'll probably win next year though for playing Princess Diana.
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  #551  
Old 01-27-2013, 02:18 PM
All I need to know about the Oscars and the Academy Awards or the Golden Globes was said recently. It was a comment about how Bigelow should get an award for being married to James Cameron. It shows me exactly why The Hurt Locker beat out Avatar for best picture. These award shows has more to do with politics and BS feelings than what truly is the best. Why did Zero Dark Thirty not get a best director nod? She already received her gift.
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  #552  
Old 01-27-2013, 03:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Erroneous View Post
All I need to know about the Oscars and the Academy Awards or the Golden Globes was said recently. It was a comment about how Bigelow should get an award for being married to James Cameron. It shows me exactly why The Hurt Locker beat out Avatar for best picture. These award shows has more to do with politics and BS feelings than what truly is the best.
Hurt Locker was a better film than Avatar, but I get what you're saying.
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  #553  
Old 01-27-2013, 08:17 PM
Tommy Lee Jones wins best supporting actor at SAG. The turning point from an interesting season into an uninteresting one?
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  #554  
Old 01-27-2013, 10:01 PM
Scratch that. Argo takes ensemble at SAG. It has to be a legit contender now for BP.
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  #555  
Old 01-27-2013, 10:03 PM
No, you were right the first comment...Argo is such a pedestrian win. PGA, now this...looking very strong for it. Bleh.
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  #556  
Old 01-27-2013, 10:09 PM
I think it's definitely an Argo vs. Lincoln race from this point on. I'm super curious to see how the DGA will turn out. There may be a chance that this year echoes 2006 (Little Miss Sunshine taking the PGA & SAG, Departed taking DGA and walking away with the Best Picture and Director Oscars).

But again, the aspect of Clooney and Affleck accepting the Best Picture Oscar (which may as well be seen as a compensation award for the latter) is almost too good to pass up. Hopefully the Academy will go for the more exciting choice.
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  #557  
Old 01-27-2013, 10:19 PM
I actually voted in this years SAG awards (Joined the union in 2012) and I was glad to see Argo take best picture. I thought Lincoln was a great movie, but Argo had something that many other movies don't in that final 30 minutes (Zero Dark Thirty came real close, but it was not nominated for best Ensemble).

I do think that Lincoln is a more "Academy" style movie and will end up winning the big prize, but Argo is one I can watch over and over again, the final 20-30 minutes of the movie are so genius, and that isnt to say the rest of the movie isnt, because it takes a tremendous movie to get you to that point where the final 20 minutes are that immensely enjoyable.

As for the acting awards, it is hard to deny Tommy Lee Jones and Daniel Day Lewis did great jobs, but my votes were elsewhere on that one (Alan Arkin and Bradley Cooper) but in this years field, every nominee is so strong, that no matter who wins, it is well deserved! (Although, due to my love of anything Jennifer Lawrence, I am pulling for her in every award!)
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  #558  
Old 01-27-2013, 10:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Reckoner View Post
I think it's definitely an Argo vs. Lincoln race from this point on. I'm super curious to see how the DGA will turn out. There may be a chance that this year echoes 2006 (Little Miss Sunshine taking the PGA & SAG, Departed taking DGA and walking away with the Best Picture and Director Oscars).
True, but Little Miss Sunshine didn't win either the Golden Globe or the BFCA award. Argo won both. Little Miss Sunshine had a total of 4 nominations. Argo has 7. Little Miss Sunshine made $60 million at the box office. Argo has made nearly twice that amount and is still making money. Little Miss Sunshine was made by first-time directors (of feature films, anyway) who were never considered safe bets for a Best Director nomination. Argo was made by Hollywood's current golden boy who was considered a lock for a Best Director nomination only to be shockingly snubbed. My point is that Argo has a lot more going for it than Little Miss Sunshine did, to the point that even if Affleck loses the DGA, it'll probably still be the frontrunner going into the Oscars. They both have Alan Arkin though.

Having said that, I strongly believe Ben Affleck will win the DGA, and I think the film will win the BAFTA as well. I think any doubts that Affleck's snub caused about the movie's chances should be all but evaporated by now, because Argo is the bona fide frontrunner in this race. Lincoln actually HAS to win the DGA award in order to stay alive in this race. If Argo wins, then Best Picture is settled, but far more interestingly, Best Director is totally up in the air.

A lot of people are being too quick to say Spielberg has Best Director in the bag. Ang Lee could still win. I think he has a great shot at winning the BAFTA. They like splits more than the Academy does, so they could easily go for Argo/Ang Lee, which in turn could easily translate into the same thing happening at the Oscars. Plus, for what it's worth, Ang Lee is the only director who has been nominated for every major award this year: Oscar, Golden Globe, BAFTA, DGA, and BFCA (Spielberg is not a BAFTA nominee).

Two more theories:

-If Emmanuelle Riva wins the BAFTA (which isn't unlikely at all), watch for her to be a potential upset at the Oscars. The Oscars and SAG awards rarely match 4/4 in the acting categories, so I still consider Lawrence and Jones to be vulnerable. I'm sure many Academy members are still in the process of discovering Amour since it's the least seen of the Best Actress nominees (and Best Picture nominees, for that matter), and it doesn't hurt that the Oscar ceremony falls on Emmanuelle Riva's birthday. Just saying.

-I think any suspicions about Silver Linings Playbook being a possible Best Picture spoiler should be gone now. The SAG awards ceremony was its last real opportunity to shine (it's not nominated at the DGA or BAFTA awards), and it only won for Lawrence. I think it's in a distant fourth place in the Best Picture race, so I wouldn't worry too much about it winning (or get my hopes up, if you're among those who actually want it to win).

Last edited by Tkeyjw; 01-27-2013 at 10:40 PM..
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  #559  
Old 01-27-2013, 10:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Tkeyjw View Post
I wouldn't necessarily predict it, but it's probably more of a possibility than a lot of people think, and that includes Michael Haneke. See, it's pretty clear by now that a lot of people in Hollywood really love Argo. Just look at the standing ovations Ben Affleck got at the Golden Globes and Critics' Choice Awards. We'll see what happens once the guilds start announcing their winners, but I think Argo has at least as good a shot as any other movie nominated at winning both the PGA and DGA. If that happens, I don't know how Argo wouldn't be the frontrunner to win Best Picture, regardless of Affleck not being nominated for Best Director.

And as for Haneke? Well, playing off the hypothetical scenario in which Argo wins Best Picture, all of those votes going to Best Picture that would normally go hand-in-hand with Best Director will be forced to go to somewhere else.

So, I mean...there's a chance--a very small chance--that Haneke could find himself greatly benefited by his position in the race.

I'm not saying it will happen. I'm just framing a realistic scenario in which it could happen. And for the record, Michael Haneke winning Best Director would be just about the most cinephilic choice in Oscar history. But let's not get our hopes up.
Our Argo/Haneke theory is far from a done deal, but the blocks are all falling into place so far.
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  #560  
Old 01-27-2013, 11:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Lazy Boy View Post
No, you were right the first comment...Argo is such a pedestrian win. PGA, now this...looking very strong for it. Bleh.
At this point, the very best movies (or at least my favorites) of the year are not in contention, so I'm rooting for precursor results that will make Oscar night unpredictable. Had Lincoln won tonight and then went on to win the DGA, it would pretty much be sealed. This way, even if Lincoln wins the DGA, it leaves it up in the air.

I do ultimately think Lincoln will win picture/director, but watching it struggle to the finish line as its supporters get frustrated is quite hilarious.
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