#561  
Old 01-27-2013, 10:26 PM
My favorite movie of the year is not nominated, but my second favorite film of the year is (as well as best director). So I'm happy about that.

Whether it's Lincoln or Argo or Silver Linings Playbook, I'm fine with any of them winning to be honest. I think they are all great.
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  #562  
Old 01-27-2013, 10:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
At this point, the very best movies (or at least my favorites) of the year are not in contention, so I'm rooting for precursor results that will make Oscar night unpredictable.
I feel the same way. Imagine this scenario:

DGA- Ang Lee (I think he's being underestimated, as I explained in my previous post)
BAFTA for Best Film- Argo
BAFTA for Best Direction- Michael Haneke (there is precedent for this, as both Paul Greengrass and Pedro Almodovar have won this category without their films being nominated for Best Film)
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  #563  
Old 01-28-2013, 12:07 AM
The only thing the SAG awards really did tonight was confirm that Anne Hathaway and Daniel Day Lewis are the frontrunners.

Argo's ensemble win was a surprise, but I'm still going to wait and see if it wins WGA and BAFTA. If it does, then I will say it's the frontrunner.

Silver Linings really needed this ensemble win. It was hurt tonight. It can't win any other big precursers except DGA now, but that's unlikely.


Best Picture: Argo Vs. Lincoln still with Argo the slight frontrunner.

Best Director: Spielberg makes the most sense right now.

Best Actor: Daniel Day Lewis, duh.

Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence is the favorite right now. If she wins BAFTA, she wins the Oscar, but I think Chastain or Riva is winning there, which would still make Lawrence the favorite, but weaker.

Best Supporting Actor: The safe bet right now is Jones, but I could honestly still see any of them winning.

Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, duh.


I agree with Theywj about Hanake. I could see BAFTA giving him Director. He's the Auteur of the lineup and they've shown they will go for those in the past.

Last edited by Matchbox225; 01-28-2013 at 12:17 AM..
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  #564  
Old 01-28-2013, 11:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Matchbox225 View Post
Silver Linings really needed this ensemble win. It was hurt tonight. It can't win any other big precursers except DGA now, but that's unlikely.
Hehe. I just remembered Russell wasn't nominated at DGA, so SLP is probably done, except for most likely Lawrence.
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  #565  
Old 01-28-2013, 12:52 PM
Argo winning surprised me but the best thing last night was:

1. Bryan Cranston upsetting Damian Lewis for Best Actor. I jumped up and said a big "FUCk YES!" When that happened

2. Daniel Day Lewis's shout out to Phoenix. I saw The Master for a third time yesterday, before the awards, and I keep liking it more the more I see it. It's an outstandingly complex and beautifully crafted film just like Phoenix's performance

3. Ben Affleck's shout out to Daniel Day Lewis ("maybe I'll become a better actor just from the radiation or something)

Everything else was boring, predictable and so safe it made me gag. Lawrence's acceptance speeches are getting worse and worse, she's making it easy for me I root against her

As far as predictions go, Argo is winning Best Picture, I think the PGA win solidifies that. And if that doesn't, Affleck's directing award with the DGA will.

Lincoln will win for DDL (though I'm definitely in the Phoenix camp now) and some techs. Best Supporting Actor is the most interesting and unpredictable award.
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  #566  
Old 01-28-2013, 03:53 PM
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Originally Posted by DaMovieMan View Post
1. Bryan Cranston upsetting Damian Lewis for Best Actor. I jumped up and said a big "FUCk YES!" When that happened
That was the highlight of the night.
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  #567  
Old 01-28-2013, 04:14 PM
I'm having a hard time predicting that Argo will win Best Picture without a Best Director nomination. I know it's happened before (Driving Miss Daisy), but still hard to imagine.

Predicting Daniel Day Lewis for Best Actor is getting easier. I was finding it difficult since no actor has won the Best Actor Oscar more than twice. I'm thinking that since Katharine Hepburn has four Best Actress Oscars, that it was inevitable for a man to surpass the two Oscar mark.
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  #568  
Old 01-28-2013, 10:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigred760 View Post
I'm having a hard time predicting that Argo will win Best Picture without a Best Director nomination. I know it's happened before (Driving Miss Daisy), but still hard to imagine.

Predicting Daniel Day Lewis for Best Actor is getting easier. I was finding it difficult since no actor has won the Best Actor Oscar more than twice. I'm thinking that since Katharine Hepburn has four Best Actress Oscars, that it was inevitable for a man to surpass the two Oscar mark.
I don't think Day-Lewis's win has been in question for a while. That whole "will they really give him a third Oscar?" uncertainty evaporated a long time ago. Particularly because there's not even a clear alternative, there's no way he won't win.

Affleck's Best Director snub is literally the ONLY thing keeping people from calling Argo a sure bet for Best Picture right now. The DGA, WGA, and BAFTA will be telling. I think this is a pretty reasonable set of assumptions:

For DGA:
-If Argo wins, it's basically over.
-If Lincoln wins, it's a two-film race for Best Picture.
-If Life of Pi wins, then I'd still say Argo is a clear frontrunner since Lincoln would be pretty much out of the running at that point, with Life of Pi becoming the de facto spoiler in the race. But for whatever reason, I think a Life of Pi win at the DGA would just hurt Lincoln more than it would actually boost its own chances. Ang Lee, however, would definitely become the frontrunner for Best Director.

For WGA:
-If Lincoln wins, nothing really changes, because it's expected to win here.
-If Argo wins, then it's REALLY over. It already picked up one unexpected guild win (the SAG), so if it wins this one too, Argo would be almost as big a lock as we've had in the past few years.

For BAFTA:
-If Argo wins Film and Director, its lead increases even further.
-If Argo wins Film but not Director, it cements its lead but doesn't necessarily increase it.
-If Argo wins neither Film nor Director, then something might change, particularly if both prizes go to Life of Pi (Spielberg isn't nominated here) and Ang Lee wins the DGA, in which case Life of Pi would actually become a legitimate Best Picture contender.

But basically, I think that Argo is going to remain the frontrunner for the rest of the season, and I'm just looking forward to seeing if Affleck wins the DGA and the Best Director BAFTA, because if he wins both, then the Best Director Oscar is completely up for grabs.

I'll go out on a limb: If Argo wins the DGA and the BAFTA for Best Film, but Haneke wins the Best Director BAFTA, then I'll actually go ahead and predict Haneke to win the Oscar.
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  #569  
Old 01-28-2013, 10:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tkeyjw View Post
I'll go out on a limb: If Argo wins the DGA and the BAFTA for Best Film, but Haneke wins the Best Director BAFTA, then I'll actually go ahead and predict Haneke to win the Oscar.
I thought you and I agreed to this general outline of events a couple weeks ago.
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  #570  
Old 01-28-2013, 10:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
That was the highlight of the night.
I was surprised to find out that this was his first win. So because of that, I was fine with him winning, even though I think Lewis deserved slightly more. I mean, they are practically tied in my opinion so it really isn't that big of a deal to me.

On the other hand, I was not happy about Downton Abby winning the ensemble cast award. That show just looks boring to me. Again, it should have gone to either Breaking Bad or Homeland. Heck, I would have been okay with Mad Men or Boardwalk Empire taking it over Downton Abby. I've only seen one episode of both of those shows, but there is no denying that the acting in those shows are fine. But Downton Abby just looks so blah.
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  #571  
Old 01-28-2013, 10:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gordon View Post
I thought you and I agreed to this general outline of events a couple weeks ago.
Yes, but I'm still unsure about Haneke. A BAFTA win would confirm that there is momentum for him, and only then would I actually be confident enough to predict him (unless Spielberg or Lee wins the DGA, in which case I think they'll win the Oscar too regardless of who wins the BAFTA). My current prediction, though, is that Affleck wins the DGA, and then the BAFTA's do a split between Argo and Ang Lee, which the Oscars will duplicate.
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  #572  
Old 01-28-2013, 10:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tkeyjw View Post
Yes, but I'm still unsure about Haneke. A BAFTA win would confirm that there is momentum for him, and only then would I actually be confident enough to predict him (unless Spielberg or Lee wins the DGA, in which case I think they'll win the Oscar too regardless of who wins the BAFTA). My current prediction, though, is that Affleck wins the DGA, and then the BAFTA's do a split between Argo and Ang Lee, which the Oscars will duplicate.
What about Hanake winning Original Screenplay at BAFTA's instead of director?

Will they really go for Boal again?

Tarantino maybe? He did win the globe.

Last edited by Matchbox225; 01-28-2013 at 10:53 PM..
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  #573  
Old 01-28-2013, 11:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Matchbox225 View Post
What about Hanake winning Original Screenplay at BAFTA's instead of director?

Will they really go for Boal again?

Tarantino maybe? He did win the globe.
I'm already predicting Haneke to win Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars. The WGA won't reveal anything since both Amour and Django Unchained were ineligible there. Zero Dark Thirty has that in the bag (although if it shockingly loses, then that would really be telling as to how much that movie's buzz has died). Even if Tarantino or Boal wins the BAFTA, I'll still be predicting Haneke for the Oscar, because that's just how much I believe it will happen. Of course, if Haneke does win the BAFTA, then I'll be feeling really confident about my pick.
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  #574  
Old 01-28-2013, 11:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tkeyjw View Post
I'm already predicting Haneke to win Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars. The WGA won't reveal anything since both Amour and Django Unchained were ineligible there. Zero Dark Thirty has that in the bag (although if it shockingly loses, then that would really be telling as to how much that movie's buzz has died). Even if Tarantino or Boal wins the BAFTA, I'll still be predicting Haneke for the Oscar, because that's just how much I believe it will happen. Of course, if Haneke does win the BAFTA, then I'll be feeling really confident about my pick.
Yeah, you're right about WGA. I'm just not confident in Boal winning the Oscar anymore. The controversy and Bigelow's snub have really hurt the movie. Hanake makes the most sense for Screenplay right now.

I would love for BAFTA to shock us and give Screenplay to one of the Andersons.

They've shown they can go their own way in the past in the Screenplay categories. The Station Agent won over Lost In Translation there years ago.

Last edited by Matchbox225; 01-28-2013 at 11:25 PM..
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  #575  
Old 01-29-2013, 10:07 AM
Original Screenplay is a tough one to predict. The backlash against Zero Dark Thirty will probably prevent Boal from winning. Flight doesn't have a chance. I'd love to see Anderson win, but the lack of a BP nom shows weakness there. I'd say it's between Haneke and Tarantino, with Tarantino probably getting the edge because of his recent snub. Haneke could very well take it though, although I'm less confident in that prediction.

Last edited by Bourne101; 01-29-2013 at 10:10 AM..
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  #576  
Old 01-29-2013, 12:03 PM
I also wouldn't count out Lee for director. I don't think Haneke is going to take it. I'm just not sure that the support from the ~300 directors that got him a nomination is going to translate to the ~6000 members of the entire Academy. I think it's between Spielberg and Lee. I have a hard time seeing an Argo/Spielberg split though. I feel that if Spielberg wins, Lincoln will also win. If Argo wins, I think it is more likely that Lee wins. Whether you like the film or not, what he pulled off was pretty incredible and I think most people recognize that.

So ultimately, if the support for Lincoln and Spielberg is there, I think it will win in both categories. If not, I think it will be an Argo/Lee split, with an outside shot at an Argo/Spielberg split.

Last edited by Bourne101; 01-29-2013 at 12:20 PM..
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  #577  
Old 01-29-2013, 03:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
I also wouldn't count out Lee for director. I don't think Haneke is going to take it. I'm just not sure that the support from the ~300 directors that got him a nomination is going to translate to the ~6000 members of the entire Academy. I think it's between Spielberg and Lee. I have a hard time seeing an Argo/Spielberg split though. I feel that if Spielberg wins, Lincoln will also win. If Argo wins, I think it is more likely that Lee wins. Whether you like the film or not, what he pulled off was pretty incredible and I think most people recognize that.

So ultimately, if the support for Lincoln and Spielberg is there, I think it will win in both categories. If not, I think it will be an Argo/Lee split, with an outside shot at an Argo/Spielberg split.
Precisely. I have felt for a long time that Spielberg could not win Best Director without Lincoln winning Best Picture, and the reverse is probably true as well. And since Spielberg isn't nominated for the BAFTA, I think the DGA is the last chance for Lincoln to solidify itself as a Best Picture player. If it loses there, I just don't see how it could win either Picture or Director.

If Lincoln wins the DGA, I think it also gets Picture and Director at the Oscars (remember, The Departed and Million Dollar Baby both won only the DGA before their Best Picture wins).

If Lincoln loses the DGA, an Argo/Ang Lee split is the most likely outcome.
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  #578  
Old 01-29-2013, 03:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tkeyjw View Post
I don't think Day-Lewis's win has been in question for a while. That whole "will they really give him a third Oscar?" uncertainty evaporated a long time ago. Particularly because there's not even a clear alternative, there's no way he won't win.
Very true. Some movie fan friends of mine have mentioned Hugh Jackman in an upset, but I'm having trouble seeing that more and more.
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  #579  
Old 01-29-2013, 03:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigred760 View Post
Very true. Some movie fan friends of mine have mentioned Hugh Jackman in an upset, but I'm having trouble seeing that more and more.
I think Phoenix would be more likely than Jackman, but yeah looks like Lewis has this in the bag.
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  #580  
Old 01-29-2013, 03:45 PM
So this could be shaping up to be one of the most exciting Oscar races in recent memory. It appears that the only front runners are DDL and Anne Hathaway. Every other race appears to be difficult to call at the moment except for maybe best actress. Jennifer Lawrence does appear to have the momentum at the moment, but even she could be vulnerable.
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  #581  
Old 01-29-2013, 04:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hucksta G View Post
Hurt Locker was a better film than Avatar, but I get what you're saying.
I felt there was little that was remarkable about Hurt Locker. I was surprised by the nomination let alone the win. No one even talks about this movie anymore or it is not on any tv channel.
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  #582  
Old 01-29-2013, 05:49 PM
It was clear going into Oscar night that Bigelow and Hurt Locker would win.

Yes, she had an unbeatable narrative going for her, but it's not a bad win at all, imo. If there was any weak element in the film, it was the writing.

The Avatar fans can moan and groan all they want, but the truth is, Avatar probably still would have lost even without The Hurt Locker.

And also, if The Hurt Locker would have been released around Oscar season, it would have grossed more because of the nominations and wins. It wasn't thought of as an Oscar movie, so it was released in the summer. The critics kept giving it awards and that set it up for the Oscars.


Back to this years Oscars, do most of us agree that Silver Linings is probably out? It lost SAG ensemble which means the actors support isn't as strong as we thought.

Russell can't win DGA or BAFTA, so he has no momentum to gain at all from here on out.

Last edited by Matchbox225; 01-29-2013 at 06:00 PM..
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  #583  
Old 01-29-2013, 06:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Matchbox225 View Post
Back to this years Oscars, do most of us agree that Silver Linings is probably out? It lost SAG ensemble which means the actors support isn't as strong as we thought.

Russell can't win DGA or BAFTA, so he has no momentum to gain at all from here on out.
I think it's out of the running for Picture and Director, but I do think that in addition to Lawrence's potential win, Robert De Niro could still pull off an upset in Best Supporting Actor just because of how open that category is. I think that's the most it could get though. If I were Harvey Weinstein, I'd be putting all of my energy into maintaining Lawrence's lead and helping De Niro capitalize on the Supporting Actor confusion from here on out, because I don't see any way it could win Best Picture anymore (if it was ever a contender in the first place).
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  #584  
Old 01-29-2013, 07:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tkeyjw View Post
I think it's out of the running for Picture and Director, but I do think that in addition to Lawrence's potential win, Robert De Niro could still pull off an upset in Best Supporting Actor just because of how open that category is. I think that's the most it could get though. If I were Harvey Weinstein, I'd be putting all of my energy into maintaining Lawrence's lead and helping De Niro capitalize on the Supporting Actor confusion from here on out, because I don't see any way it could win Best Picture anymore (if it was ever a contender in the first place).
Best Supporting Actor is completely nuts isn't it. Hoffman won the Critics award, Waltz won the Globe, and Jones won SAG.

I'm thinking Jones would have won SAG even if Waltz had made it there, so I think right now he's the favorite, but still, it's anyone's game.

I have no idea what BAFTA will do. Bardem is the only one who is out at that race. Right now I'll say Jones, but the Spielberg snub is troubling.
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  #585  
Old 01-29-2013, 07:36 PM
I don't know if this info was posted here on nomination day, but this year, George Clooney broke the record for most categories as a nominee.

He's got nominations for:

Picture (Argo)
Director (Good Night, and Good Luck)
Actor (Michael Clayton, Up In The Air, The Descendants)
Supporting Actor (Syriana)
Original Screenplay (Good Night, And Good Luck)
Adapted Screenplay (The Ides Of March)
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  #586  
Old 01-30-2013, 12:42 PM
Remember that amazing black and white short film Paperman before Wreck-It Ralph? You can watch it again now! http://wp.me/p2CCWq-2Ak
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  #587  
Old 01-30-2013, 06:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Matchbox225 View Post
I have no idea what BAFTA will do. Bardem is the only one who is out at that race. Right now I'll say Jones, but the Spielberg snub is troubling.
I just have this funny feeling that Alan Arkin will win the BAFTA. I mean, I know most people think he's the least deserving of the nominees in that category, but we're talking about a group that liked Argo enough to give Ben Affleck a Best Actor nomination. Plus, the BAFTA was the only award Arkin won back in 2006 before he won the Oscar. I don't know. Call it a hunch, but I think it's going to be Arkin, which will really make this category interesting at the Oscars.

Also, if that happens, Argo could be looking at 4 or more potential Oscar wins, which should silence those who think it can't win Best Picture because it's supposedly not a safe bet in any other category. If Arkin wins the BAFTA and if it pulls off a surprise WGA victory (which is also possible), it could head into Oscar night looking at Picture, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, and Editing. Maybe even Original Score. In other words, not only do I not doubt its chances of winning Best Picture, but I honestly think it could be an even bigger winner than we think.
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  #588  
Old 01-30-2013, 11:30 PM
There's absolutely no way Arkin is winning Best Supporting Actor. Zero, zilch, none, nada. Argo has big potential to win with Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Editing and maybe even Music, but Arkin's 10 minutes (after he won not-too-long-ago for Little Sunshine) won't get him an Oscar. Every other actor in that category has a bigger chance, I'd say right now it's looking like

Jones 33%
Waltz 32%
Hoffman 15%
De Niro 19.9%
Arkin 0.1%

So there might be a .1% chance, but I'd be less surprised if Beasts of the Southern Wild won Best Picture and Best Director than Arkin winning Supporting Actor.

Yeesh. *shudder*

I really think Ben Affleck is getting the DGA, which is going to make the Best Director category one of the most interesting of the night. I honestly think that every one of those directors, except Zeitlin, has a strong chance of pulling off a win. Even O.Russell, who's never won, has Weinstein in his corner, previous nominee, and directed the film that is presented in all four acting categories (that means it's LOVED like crazy).
I'm still predicting Haneke to take it along with Original Screenplay and Foreign Film with a possible (and potential humongous highlight) Best Actress win for Riva.
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  #589  
Old 01-31-2013, 12:02 AM
If by some chance, BAFTA actually goes to Arkin, then all the televised awards would have gone to different people, which means we likely get ...

... "And The Oscar goes to ... Robert DeNiro."
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  #590  
Old 01-31-2013, 01:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Matchbox225 View Post
If by some chance, BAFTA actually goes to Arkin, then all the televised awards would have gone to different people, which means we likely get ...

... "And The Oscar goes to ... Robert DeNiro."
That would make me happy. It doesn't look like De Niro is gonna win. Right now, it looks like it'll likely go to either Jones or Hoffman. But I'm rooting for De Niro. And if it can't be him, then I'd be rooting for Waltz next.
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  #591  
Old 01-31-2013, 07:02 PM
I am definitely of the opinion that Arkin's performance is solidly in the camp of "the nomination if the award." It's such a small role and frankly, while he does as good of a job as you can, not a particularly interesting or impressive character/performance. The fact that we even categorize "Supporting Actor" as including both Hoffman/Waltz and Arkin is downright silly. Can anyone give me a justification for Forest Whitaker winning Best Actor for his role in The Last King of Scotland, and Hoffman/Waltz being "supporting" actors?
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  #592  
Old 02-02-2013, 09:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gordon View Post
Can anyone give me a justification for Forest Whitaker winning Best Actor for his role in The Last King of Scotland, and Hoffman/Waltz being "supporting" actors?
Simple answer: because Whitaker was competing in a weak year for Best Actor, whereas it's probably the case that neither Hoffman nor Waltz would have been nominated this year had they been campaigned in the lead category. It's pure strategy.
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  #593  
Old 02-03-2013, 12:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tkeyjw View Post
Simple answer: because Whitaker was competing in a weak year for Best Actor, whereas it's probably the case that neither Hoffman nor Waltz would have been nominated this year had they been campaigned in the lead category. It's pure strategy.
Haha fair enough, I guess I was thinking more at the level of abstractly evaluating the role of the actor in a film. Something that I suppose doesn't really figure into to the Oscars.
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  #594  
Old 02-03-2013, 12:37 AM
2006 was the weakest year for that category in a long time. Gosling probably wouldn't have been nominated for Half Nelson in any other year. He was lucky.

I don't mind Whitaker's win when you consider who he was up against, including O'Toole. I feel the same way with Reese Witherspoon's win the year before, even though I preferred Knightley.
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  #595  
Old 02-03-2013, 12:42 AM
Affleck wins DGA. Argo is definitely in the driver's seat.
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  #596  
Old 02-03-2013, 12:44 AM
As expected, Ben Affleck wins DGA.

Now we just have WGA and BAFTA's.
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  #597  
Old 02-03-2013, 01:00 AM
Fuck yea
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  #598  
Old 02-03-2013, 01:01 AM
So at WGA, Zero Dark Thirty should take Original Screenplay pretty easily, despite the controversy. I mean, what else can win here?

Adapted Screenplay will be interesting. If Lincoln loses here, then it's chances for Picture are really shot to shit. It was considered the frontrunner to win here for a while, but Argo is unbelievably strong right now.


Edit: I kept thinking WGA was next, but I'm wrong. BAFTA's are next Sunday and then WGA on Feb. 17th. It's still Argo Vs. Lincoln for Adapted though either way.

Last edited by Matchbox225; 02-03-2013 at 01:11 AM..
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  #599  
Old 02-03-2013, 01:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Matchbox225 View Post
So at WGA, Zero Dark Thirty should take Original Screenplay pretty easily, despite the controversy. I mean, what else can win here?

Adapted Screenplay will be interesting. If Lincoln loses here, then it's chances for Picture are really shot to shit. It was considered the frontrunner to win here for a while, but Argo is unbelievably strong right now.


Edit: I kept thinking WGA was next, but I'm wrong. BAFTA's are next Sunday and then WGA on Feb. 17th. It's still Argo Vs. Lincoln for Adapted though either way.
I'm pretty sure Lincoln is still safe for the Adapted Screenplay. Kushner and DDL are safe, Spielberg clearly isn't.

BAFTAS - Feb 10
WGA - Feb 17
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  #600  
Old 02-03-2013, 11:45 AM
Want a good laugh? Read Sasha Stone's reaction to Affleck winning the DGA on Twitter. This is in addition to her saying that Argo winning would be on the same level as Crash over Brokeback Mountain, and that Affleck is the Mitt Romney of this year's Oscar race.
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