#601  
Old 02-03-2013, 11:59 AM
And I was actually happy about Crash winning best picture over Brokeback Mountain. It's a better film IMO.

The Mitt Romney comment doesn't even make sense.
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  #602  
Old 02-03-2013, 12:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ilovemovies View Post
And I was actually happy about Crash winning best picture over Brokeback Mountain. It's a better film IMO.
I guess my point was that she thinks it's going to get the same reaction (i.e., a lot of people upset). There are three reasons why this won't happen if Argo wins. Firstly, Argo was better received and had a lot more respect than Crash. Secondly, Crash wasn't sweeping all of the Guilds and precursors like Argo has been. Crash winning was a legitimate surprise (as you saw in Jack Nicholson's face when he read the envelope). If Argo wins, it's not going to be a surprise, because as of now, it has to be considered the frontrunner. Lastly, Lincoln doesn't have the kind of passionate support that will lead to a lot of backlash against Argo. Lincoln is well-respected by most people, but do a lot of people really love it? I don't think so.
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  #603  
Old 02-03-2013, 12:36 PM
I think there are actually a lot of people who do love Lincoln, but a lot of people love Argo as well. So yeah, Argo winning won't be a surprise. A surprise would be if Silver Linings Playbook won but that probably won't happen, although I'm not as sold as you guys are that it's out of the picture. I mean, yeah, Argo is definitely the frontrunner at this point with Lincoln just a tad behind. But I still wouldn't entirely 100% count out SLP just yet.

BTW, about you guys saying that Ang Lee could win best director, I would LOVE it for that happen, but I don't know if I see it happening. But I'm almost always wrong about these things anyway and since Life of Pi is my second favorite movie of the year, my favorite of the nominees (that I've seen) nothing would please me more to see that happen.
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  #604  
Old 02-03-2013, 01:25 PM
Sasha Stone needs to just go away forever. She has no business doing this anymore.

If Lincoln actually does win, it will be a respectable choice, going in line with what the Academy usually goes for, but it won't be as beloved as Schindler's List. Respectable choices have shown that they haven't always been the best choices with the Academy. Just look at Gandhi.

I truly feel bad for Kathryn Bigelow. It's been all about how Affleck was snubbed and she has just been pushed aside. She has by far gotten the worst shit this season and nobody has come to her defense. Nobody. How come none of the big A-Listers have come out and said what the media has been doing to her and the movie is awful? It just pisses me off.
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  #605  
Old 02-03-2013, 01:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Matchbox225 View Post
Sasha Stone needs to just go away forever. She has no business doing this anymore.

If Lincoln actually does win, it will be a respectable choice, going in line with what the Academy usually goes for, but it won't be as beloved as Schindler's List. Respectable choices have shown that they haven't always been the best choices with the Academy. Just look at Gandhi.

I truly feel bad for Kathryn Bigelow. It's been all about how Affleck was snubbed and she has just been pushed aside. She has by far gotten the worst shit this season and nobody has come to her defense. Nobody. How come none of the big A-Listers have come out and said what the media has been doing to her and the movie is awful? It just pisses me off.

Maybe people just don't think it's that big of a snub? At least not on the same level of Affleck, who was probably the frontrunner to win the Oscar in most people's minds.

Most of the Zero Dark Thirty hype has subsided by now anyway. Seems like it's fallen behind Argo, Lincoln, and Silver Linings.
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  #606  
Old 02-03-2013, 02:16 PM
Bigelow's direction of Zero Dark Thirty was, IMO, the best thing about the movie. So I do think it's a pretty big snub.

But I did enjoy Argo more as a whole I will say. But they are both excellent movies. Not masterpieces by any means, but still great. None of them are currently in my top 5 and by the time I'm done watching everything I need to watch, they may not even be in my top 10. In fact, they probably won't.
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  #607  
Old 02-03-2013, 02:28 PM
Yeah I feel bad for Bigelow too. When the Oscar noms came in, she was definitely up there in the forefront with Affleck as far as biggest snubs were concerned, with Ellison tweeting how fucked up it was and all that. But the dumb controversy that's become the film's stigma now for many people coupled with the steamrolling that Argo has been doing with the awards, I'm not that surprised that both Bigelow and ZD30 have receded into the background.

The biggest loser from that is Jessica Chastain, who before the SAG was pretty much neck-and-neck with Lawrence but now is a distinctive second to a lesser performance and the Harvey Weinstein machine.
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  #608  
Old 02-03-2013, 02:55 PM
I would much prefer ZD30 to be getting all the love, rather than Argo (though I love both) and yeah Chastain deserves it over Lawrence (though both were among the year's best, I'd prefer Riva to beat them both.)
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  #609  
Old 02-03-2013, 03:02 PM
I never really thought Chastain would win, regardless of the controversy. While Zero Dark Thirty is a better film than Silver Linings Playbook, there really isn't a lot to Chastain's character. She has a couple of great scenes, but also some scenes with some flat line delivery, and the way the character is written doesn't necessarily help her. Boal's script is great, but there are certainly weaknesses when it comes to that character (see Zodiac for how to write that kind of character). It's easy to put Lawrence down because she was in a lighter movie that isn't as respected as some of the other contenders, but I honestly thought she gave the better performance. Her style of acting combined with David O. Russell's directing style complement each other extremely well. Riva winning would be great though, but I don't see it happening.

Last edited by Bourne101; 02-03-2013 at 03:08 PM..
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  #610  
Old 02-03-2013, 03:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
I never really thought Chastain would win, regardless of the controversy. While Zero Dark Thirty is a better film than Silver Linings Playbook, there really isn't a lot to Chastain's character. She has a couple of great scenes, but also some scenes with some flat line delivery, and the way the character is written doesn't necessarily help her. Boal's script is great, but there are certainly weaknesses when it comes to that character (see Zodiac for how to write that kind of character). It's easy to put Lawrence down because she was in a lighter movie that isn't as respected as some of the other contenders, but I honestly thought she gave the better performance. Her style of acting combined with David O. Russell's directing style complement each other extremely well. Riva winning would be great though, but I don't see it happening.
I actually think Emmanuelle Riva will win the BAFTA, and if that happens, she will definitely be in the mix. Several pundits have already jumped the gun and are predicting her to win the Oscar (including Kris Tapley) just based on what they've been hearing from industry insiders and Academy members who have just recently watched Amour. I said when the nominations were announced that Amour was the movie that would be most benefited by the extended period between nominations and the ceremony, and it looks like I was right. I'm still predicting Lawrence, but I actually think Riva is more likely to upset than Chastain at this point.

I know Emmanuelle Riva would be the oldest Best Actress winner in history (she's already the oldest nominee), and if I'm not mistaken, Jennifer Lawrence would be the youngest, so as long as Chastain doesn't win, history is being made this year.
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  #611  
Old 02-03-2013, 03:20 PM
On Riva, does anybody know if she speaks any English? It would be a bullshit reason to not vote for her if she doesn't, but I can see academy members doing that.

Theyjw, I think Marlee Matlin is the youngest winner. Jennifer Lawrence is already 22 I believe and Matlin was 21.

Last edited by Matchbox225; 02-03-2013 at 03:25 PM..
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  #612  
Old 02-03-2013, 03:22 PM
Lawrence had some really clunky scenes ("You're killing me!" for one, or her over-the-top acting outside the movie theater). It's mostly the way the character is written that bugs me, but her performance is part of it. I would actually like it if Riva pulled out the win over Chastain and Lawrence. As for her speaking any English, it seems that every interview I've read with her comes with a translator (there was a recent one at In Contention, I believe).

While I think maybe the "poor Ben Affleck" snub/meme has helped push Argo into a sympathetic underdog-now-serious contender status, that can only go so far, since I do remember Tapley reporting the serious love it was getting from Academy screenings back in October. So, it isn't a surprise to see how far it's come (plus, doesn't hurt to have the film blow smoke up Hollywood's ass).

Last edited by Lazy Boy; 02-03-2013 at 03:26 PM..
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  #613  
Old 02-03-2013, 04:00 PM
Riva winning would be a highlight, I agree. And right now, since Watts has pretty much won nothing poor thing, the chances of her stealing it are pretty much done and dusted. She'll be back as a more serious contender next year I think with her Diana movie.

Riva not speaking any English (I'm sure she speaks enough to say "thank you") shouldn't factor in too much with voters, I'm guessing the translator would be on hand to go up there with her if she does in fact win (which again, I must say, would be so amazing to see). Her Anne is sliced from life perfectly, and she gives the most naturally complex performance from the whole bunch. That she does it at her age is even more reason to tick the box next to her name.

After seeing SLP for the second time, Lawrence's performance does have some gravitas to it, the clip they showed at SAG when Tiffany calls Pat an asshole is probably her best moment and she has a few of those, but her first scene is downright bad and she goes over the top in the diner. Plus, the Tiffany character is one of the biggest cinematic cliches (pretty, young and her whole existence revolves around getting her man) and when you compare that to the subtle, refined and complex performance from Chastain, who plays one of the most interesting female characters of 2012 who astonishingly enough doesn't have her life controlled or revolving around men (not even Homeland's Carrie could say that about herself), then I'm pissed when I consider that it's the romantic-comedy girlfriend leading her. Chastain's performance, on top of being the clear lead whereas Tiffany is not, is way more subtle and layered which is tougher to do than what Lawrence does.

SLP's most deserving nominations are De Niro, Cooper and the editing. And I woulnd't mind if De Niro or editing steal (Cooper has 0 chance)

Last edited by DaMovieMan; 02-03-2013 at 04:02 PM..
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  #614  
Old 02-03-2013, 04:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaMovieMan View Post
SLP's most deserving nominations are De Niro, Cooper and the editing. And I woulnd't mind if De Niro or editing steal (Cooper has 0 chance)
It also has zero chance for an editing win, I'm afraid. It seems like most voters just pick whichever movie they chose in Best Picture in that category, or if they don't, they go for the flashiest editing. Since Silver Linings Playbook is not the Best Picture frontrunner, and it also has probably the least flashy editing of the nominees, I think it's got to be the least likely to win in that category. I think Argo will win there (Best Picture frontrunner + tense, flashy editing), but it could also go to Life of Pi if they decide to go all-out on the tech wins for that movie.

Also, regarding Emmanuelle Riva, it's worth noting that in addition to the legitimate buzz she seems to be gaining, there are also two superficial reasons for Academy members to vote for her which, while ultimately meaningless, could nevertheless be seen as icing on the cake:
-The Oscar ceremony falls on her 86th birthday. What a great birthday present that would be.
-A fellow French actor will be presenting her category.

Oh, how sweet it would be to see Jean Dujardin open the envelope and say, "Joyeux anniversaire, Emmanuelle Riva!"
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  #615  
Old 02-03-2013, 04:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tkeyjw View Post
It also has zero chance for an editing win, I'm afraid. It seems like most voters just pick whichever movie they chose in Best Picture in that category, or if they don't, they go for the flashiest editing. Since Silver Linings Playbook is not the Best Picture frontrunner, and it also has probably the least flashy editing of the nominees, I think it's got to be the least likely to win in that category. I think Argo will win there (Best Picture frontrunner + tense, flashy editing), but it could also go to Life of Pi if they decide to go all-out on the tech wins for that movie.
Yeah, you're probably right (though I'd argue that it's Lincoln which has the least flashiest editing from that group). I'm expecting Argo to take editing or Zero Dark Thirty to pull off an upset kinda like what Girl with the Dragon Tattoo did last year (one of the greatest moments from last year's ceremony) so I know that SLP has very little chance here but in such a crazy year, and because I still feel like SLP has been shown A LOT of love (more than I thought actually) by the Academy members, it wouldn't shock me if it won editing.
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  #616  
Old 02-03-2013, 04:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaMovieMan View Post
Plus, the Tiffany character is one of the biggest cinematic cliches (pretty, young and her whole existence revolves around getting her man) and when you compare that to the subtle, refined and complex performance from Chastain, who plays one of the most interesting female characters of 2012 who astonishingly enough doesn't have her life controlled or revolving around men (not even Homeland's Carrie could say that about herself), then I'm pissed when I consider that it's the romantic-comedy girlfriend leading her. Chastain's performance, on top of being the clear lead whereas Tiffany is not, is way more subtle and layered which is tougher to do than what Lawrence does.
I guess we'll just disagree on Chastain's character. I didn't find that it was that subtle or complex. As QUENTIN said in the Current Movie Talk thread, she plays a fairly boring, one-dimensional protagonist we've seen a million times before. No less cliched than the character that Lawrence played, just a different genre. Just because she doesn't have a man in her life doesn't make the character more complex. Throwing in the occasional unsubtle reminder that she doesn't have any friends also doesn't make the character more complex.

Lawrence's character also wasn't exactly a cardboard cutout of your usual rom-com leading female. How many leading female characters in rom-coms are that totally fucked up? It's in O. Russell's nature that his characters avoid cliches, even when the plot is cliched.

Last edited by Bourne101; 02-03-2013 at 05:15 PM..
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  #617  
Old 02-03-2013, 06:10 PM
Here's something to ponder.

If Argo wins, how will that effect Affleck's chances in director the next time he's in contention?

This likely hurts his chances to win director in the near future and I can't see him winning there unless his film was the frontrunner for Best Picture again.

Could there be some voters who feel this way and will actually vote for something else?

Last edited by Matchbox225; 02-03-2013 at 06:17 PM..
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  #618  
Old 02-03-2013, 06:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Matchbox225 View Post
Here's something to ponder.

If Argo wins, how will that effect Affleck's chances in director the next time he's in contention?

This likely hurts his chances to win director in the near future and I can't see him winning there unless his film was the frontrunner for Best Picture again.

Could there be some voters who feel this way and will actually vote for something else?
I don't think it will cost Argo the vote because I can't imagine too many voters will be thinking in those terms, but I think you're right that an Argo win would probably hurt his chances next time he's in the mix for an Oscar. I can't help but wonder if that's part of the reason why Kathryn Bigelow was snubbed this year (along with the controversy). On the other hand, though, if Argo loses Best Picture, I'd have to imagine that Affleck would have a MAJOR advantage the next time around. I mean, he was already denied a Best Director nomination that everyone thought he would get. If his movie loses Best Picture after winning every single major precursor award, then I think it's possible that there will be some major "we owe you" sentiments from the Academy the next time around.
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  #619  
Old 02-04-2013, 09:40 PM
The nominees. I can't spot DDL. Is the guy such a boss that he doesn't even have to attend these things anymore?

http://www.deadline.com/2013/02/osca...uncheon-photo/

(Way too big to post as a picture, and I don't know how to make it smaller and put it in html so if anyone can oblige..)

Last edited by DaMovieMan; 02-04-2013 at 09:44 PM..
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  #620  
Old 02-04-2013, 09:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaMovieMan View Post
The nominees. I can't spot DDL. Is the guy such a boss that he doesn't even have to attend these things anymore?

http://www.deadline.com/2013/02/osca...uncheon-photo/

(Way too big to post as a picture, and I don't know how to make it smaller and put it in html so if anyone can oblige..)
Even Phoenix is in it!

Maybe Lewis took the photo
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  #621  
Old 02-04-2013, 10:32 PM
Daniel Day-Lewis, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Alan Arkin, and Emmanuelle Riva are there are the only ones I didn't spot. Four not there seems a little high, although I understand Riva not being able to go, since she's likely in France.
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  #622  
Old 02-08-2013, 12:51 PM
The Academy have released nine amazingly beautiful new posters for Best Picture Nominees - Check it out! - http://wp.me/p2CCWq-2BT
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  #623  
Old 02-10-2013, 11:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
I guess we'll just disagree on Chastain's character. I didn't find that it was that subtle or complex. As QUENTIN said in the Current Movie Talk thread, she plays a fairly boring, one-dimensional protagonist we've seen a million times before. No less cliched than the character that Lawrence played, just a different genre. Just because she doesn't have a man in her life doesn't make the character more complex. Throwing in the occasional unsubtle reminder that she doesn't have any friends also doesn't make the character more complex.

Lawrence's character also wasn't exactly a cardboard cutout of your usual rom-com leading female. How many leading female characters in rom-coms are that totally fucked up? It's in O. Russell's nature that his characters avoid cliches, even when the plot is cliched.
I guess we must. QUENTIN's assessment of Chastain's character sounds like an exaggeration to me because we've perhaps seen a million different shades of this type of character, but never one quite like her. Carrie from Homeland, for example, seems to be the one that lots of people like to point out to but even Carrie is different than Maya: one can argue that she is consumed by her disease and by her emotional attachment to Brody as much as she is consumed by her work and finding Nazir. Of the other millions of women who are just like Maya, (mostly on television shows it seems to me) none of them really go through what Maya goes through in ZD30, and more often than not there is a man, a family member or a friend to help them and take some of the focus off. Not so with Maya, which - like it or not - does make her unique.
But most of what makes her unique is that we've seen millions of male characters just like her but rarely a woman. Chastain recently said that she felt like John Wayne to Bigelow's John Ford. Think about the underlying significance of a statement like that for a second. Maya was a woman in a man's world treated and represented with the exact same kind of attitude a male character would be under any other director/writer. Going even further; to have a symbol of the state of a collective American mentality and the vagueness of the final victory - this idea of "where are we going now" after he is out of the picture - be a woman (as simultaneously delicate and iron-willed as Chastain's portrayal of Maya was) is a step forward and makes the gap between Chastain's Maya and the "millions of other protagonists" that much wider.

So it's not as simple as her not having a man in her life or any friends (which, by the way, isn't even true - she did make at least one genuine friend) that makes her a complex character but what she stands for, what she goes through, the bend of her character's arc and last but not least the way Jessica Chastain portrayed her from the first to the last scene - complete conviction and delicate balance.

Jennifer Lawrence's Tiffany doesn't even come close to the complexities described above, in my opinion. I didn't find her that much more "fucked up" than any of the other million women I met in romantic comedies. Sleeping with a lot of guys makes you fucked up all of a sudden? Even that one moment when she told him he can fuck her, then cried, then slapped him or whatever, was only ONE moment in the entire film which never re-appeared again and as such ended up feeling completely contrived.

Apologies, I let loose on Sundays...

BAFTAs tonight!

Last edited by DaMovieMan; 02-10-2013 at 12:27 PM..
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  #624  
Old 02-10-2013, 01:40 PM
Argo won the USC Scripter award...I'm beginning to really think Kushner's Lincoln script is in real danger of losing Best Adapted Screenplay now.
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  #625  
Old 02-10-2013, 01:53 PM
Argo wins Editing at BAFTAS

Skyfall wins Best British Film, Best Score (?!)

Life of Pi wins Cinematography
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  #626  
Old 02-10-2013, 02:06 PM
Gotta think Christoph Waltz is the clear frontrunner now.
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  #627  
Old 02-10-2013, 03:02 PM
So many good/great documentaries this year, and they decided to give it to Sugar Man? I really hope AMPAS got through their screeners of Invisible War and The Gatekeepers.

Favorite idiotic tweet of the day (you can guess who at this point): "Their industry doesn't hate women as much as ours, which explains why Brave just won best animated at #BAFTA"

Last edited by Lazy Boy; 02-10-2013 at 03:05 PM..
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  #628  
Old 02-10-2013, 03:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaMovieMan View Post
Skyfall wins Best British Film, Best Score (?!)
I think it'll be more of a compensation award if Newman wins the Oscar for Best Score. And I'm really pulling for a Deakins upset, he's long overdue and his work in Skyfall would certainly be worthy.
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  #629  
Old 02-10-2013, 03:15 PM

Riva wins Best Actress.
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  #630  
Old 02-10-2013, 03:24 PM
And the Affleck/Argo train keeps rolling. At this point I think Argo is guaranteed BP. BD is still uncertain, and pretty exciting, though Spielberg still has to be seen as the frontrunner. Amour has an interesting situation; Original Screenplay seems like a pretty decent bet at this point, and Riva's emergence is rather interesting.

I have to say I think this is the strangest situation I have ever seen in the Oscars. Can you ever think of a director whose only obstacle to winning Best Director was his lack of a nomination? Has it ever happened where the unquestionable front runner wasn't even nominated?
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  #631  
Old 02-10-2013, 04:06 PM
Lincoln is going to win. It was nominated in all the same exact categories as the King's Speech is just one indication.
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  #632  
Old 02-10-2013, 05:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gordon View Post
Amour has an interesting situation; Original Screenplay seems like a pretty decent bet at this point, and Riva's emergence is rather interesting.
I would have thought that if Amour was going to win screenplay at the Oscars, it would have won the BAFTA. I think Django is right there with it at this point, if not ahead of it.
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  #633  
Old 02-10-2013, 06:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
I would have thought that if Amour was going to win screenplay at the Oscars, it would have won the BAFTA. I think Django is right there with it at this point, if not ahead of it.
I don't disagree. By decent bet I didn't mean to imply it was a lock, I just meant to imply that it has as good a possibility as any of the other nominees. In the end, Amour is such a weird movie to grasp in terms of the Academy. I could see it conceivably getting BD/Screenplay/Actress and I can also see it getting absolutely nothing.
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  #634  
Old 02-10-2013, 06:26 PM
Lincoln has lost a lot of steam. Argo is definitely taking out the big prize.
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  #635  
Old 02-10-2013, 06:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gordon View Post
I have to say I think this is the strangest situation I have ever seen in the Oscars. Can you ever think of a director whose only obstacle to winning Best Director was his lack of a nomination? Has it ever happened where the unquestionable front runner wasn't even nominated?
I don't think this has happened before if we're going by unquestionable frontrunner.

This is actually where we lose our Driving Miss Daisy comparison, because Bruce Beresford didn't get Director nominations at the Golden Globes or DGA.

The next possibility I was thinking of was Steven Spielberg for The Color Purple, but I don't think he was ever an unquestionable frontrunner. He did win the DGA though.

That race is pretty interesting because Sydney Pollack never won anything up until the Oscars. John Huston won the Golden Globe and he did have sentiment going into the Oscars since he wasn't in good health and was a legend. But since Out of Africa was the movie Oscars loved, naturally, Sydney Pollack won Director.

The Best Picture and Director race that year is one I would like to know more about, especially since The Color Purple ended up going home empty handed.
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  #636  
Old 02-10-2013, 07:26 PM
Scattered

Riva winning was the best.

I don't think that Waltz is a front runner for the Oscar, in fact I think any of those guys with the sole exception of Alan Arkin can win it, including Robert De Niro and P.S.Hoffman.

O'Russel winning for Adapted Screenplay was bit of a brainfart from the Brits, I fear that Kushner's screenplay is under major threat.

This is one of the most exciting Oscar seasons in a long time. With Best Actress, Supporting Actor, Director, Original Screenplay and now possibly Adapted Screenplay as well being pretty unpredictable categories.

Argo winning everything so far, might be completely stopped at the Oscars simply because of the lack of the Director nod for Affleck, so no one can even call Best Picture with 100% yet.

This is as interesting as the Oscars can really hope to get nowadays.
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  #637  
Old 02-10-2013, 07:58 PM
I told myself that if Riva won the BAFTA, I'd predict her to win the Oscar too, and I'm sticking with it. I know it's kind of foolish, but I have two reasons for this prediction: 1) The BAFTA's have been good at foreshadowing upsets in recent years (see Alan Arkin and Tilda Swinton), and 2) I'd rather predict Riva and be wrong about it than NOT predict her and then not get bragging rights if she wins.

Anyway, wow. At least 4 of the 8 major categories are up for grabs this year, and that's going on the assumption that Lawrence and Argo are strong in their categories (which they might not be). We've never had a Best Director race like this before. Nobody has ever won Best Director after losing the BAFTA, DGA, Golden Globe, and Critics' Choice awards, yet this year that will happen no matter who wins. Spielberg is probably the de facto frontrunner, but I don't think that's a safe bet by any means. It could just as easily go to Ang Lee or even David O. Russell. I like to think even Michael Haneke has a shot, but I don't want to jinx it.

On paper, Christoph Waltz is the frontrunner for Supporting Actor now. Statistically, the combination of Golden Globe plus BAFTA is actually more indicative of Oscar success than the SAG alone. Still, Arkin is the only one who I think is out. De Niro could win, especially if they decide to give Riva Best Actress and thus feel the need to give Silver Linings Playbook something else instead. Hoffman could win too, although since his movie is probably the least liked of the bunch, I'm less confident about him. I think it's mainly Jones vs. Waltz, and I genuinely don't know who to pick, which is why I'm actually going to go out on a limb and say neither at this point. I'm going with De Niro for now, but that's obviously subject to change. If Lincoln picks up some steam with a WGA win, then I might go back to picking Jones. If Silver Linings pulls off a minor upset at the WGA like it did at the BAFTA's tonight, I'm definitely sticking with De Niro. Maybe if Argo wins, I'll go with Waltz for whatever other reason. I'm not sure yet.

And yeah, speaking of the WGA, the screenplay categories are pretty hard to read too. Original Screenplay has to be between Django and Amour, with the slight edge going to Tarantino, but I still think Haneke could walk away with it. I won't have a prediction for Adapted Screenplay until the WGA is announced. I think Lincoln, Argo, and Silver Linings Playbook are more or less even right now.
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  #638  
Old 02-10-2013, 09:13 PM
Roger Ebert just posted his predictions. According to him, "For the first time in many a year, maybe ever, I think I've guessed every one correctly."

http://blogs.suntimes.com/ebert/2013...easy_year.html

Best Picture: Argo
Director: Steven Spielberg
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis
Actress: Jennifer Lawrence
Supp. Actor: Tommy Lee Jones
Supp. Actress: Anne Hatheway
Orig. Screenplay: Amour
Adapted Screenplay: Lincoln
Foreign Film: Amour
Cinematography: Life of Pi
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  #639  
Old 02-10-2013, 09:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Reckoner View Post
Roger Ebert just posted his predictions. According to him, "For the first time in many a year, maybe ever, I think I've guessed every one correctly."

http://blogs.suntimes.com/ebert/2013...easy_year.html

Best Picture: Argo
Director: Steven Spielberg
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis
Actress: Jennifer Lawrence
Supp. Actor: Tommy Lee Jones
Supp. Actress: Anne Hatheway
Orig. Screenplay: Amour
Adapted Screenplay: Lincoln
Foreign Film: Amour
Cinematography: Life of Pi
I can't argue with any of those choices, but sometimes his love for certain movies can mess up his predictions. I remember he predicted Million Dollar Baby for Adapted Screenplay and then was surprised when Sideways won, which was the frontrunner there.
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  #640  
Old 02-10-2013, 11:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Matchbox225 View Post
I can't argue with any of those choices, but sometimes his love for certain movies can mess up his predictions. I remember he predicted Million Dollar Baby for Adapted Screenplay and then was surprised when Sideways won, which was the frontrunner there.
Yes, his biases do cloud his judgment sometimes in predicting the Oscars, but sometimes he goes out on a limb and ends up being right. As I recall, he predicted Crash to win Best Picture at least a month before the ceremony. There was even a thread here called "Ebert has lost his mind" or something like that when he first made that prediction. That being said, he didn't go for any unusual picks this year, so that won't be a factor.

Also, for those who haven't seen it, here is the clip of Emmanuelle Riva winning the BAFTA:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37u99sEhfKY

The reason I'm posting this is because I think people may begin to talk about David O. Russell's obviously bitter reaction to her winning over Jennifer Lawrence. Skip to about 2:44 in the video to see it. I realize he's always had a reputation for being somewhat of a hothead, so it's not really surprising to me, but I just thought I'd post the link in case this turns into a minor controversy (which it might in these final 2 weeks of the campaign). It's worth noting that Jennifer Lawrence doesn't look too happy either, but at least she's not overtly upset like Russell is.
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