#681  
Old 02-19-2013, 06:47 AM
I still have a few films to see, so I'll edit my list if this changes.


BEST PICTURE:

Will Win: Argo
Should Win: Life of Pi


BEST DIRECTOR:

Will Win: Steven Spielberg
Should Win: Ang Lee


BEST ACTOR:

Will AND Should Win: Daniel Day Lewis


BEST ACTRESS:

Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence
Should Win: Naomi Watts


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Will AND Should Win: Robert De Niro


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Will Win: Anne Hathaway
Should Win: Helen Hunt (haven't seen Les Miz yet)


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Will Win: Django Unchained
Should Win: Flight


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

Will Win: Argo
Should Win: Life of Pi


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:

Will AND Should Win: Wreck it Ralph


BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:

Will Win: Anna Karenina
Should Win: The Hobbit


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:

Will AND Should Win: Life of Pi


COSTUME DESIGN:

Will Win: Anna Karenina
Should Win: Snow White and the Huntsman


BEST FILM EDITING:

Will Win: Argo
Should Win: Life of Pi


BEST MAKEUP:

Will Win: Les Miserables
Should Win: The Hobbit


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:

Will Win: Skyfall
Should Win: Lincoln


BEST ORIGINAL SONG:

Will AND Should Win: Skyfall


BEST SOUND EDITING:

Will Win: Zero Dark Thirty
Should Win: Life of Pi


BEST SOUND MIXING:

Will Win: Les Miserables
Should Win: Life of Pi


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:

Will AND Should Win: Life of Pi


I'm almost tempted to guess that The Avengers will win in visual effects, but Life of Pi seems to be the safe choice. Still, it wouldn't surprise me if that ended up happening.
Reply With Quote
  #682  
Old 02-19-2013, 09:43 AM
My Turn!

Best Picutre
Will Win: Argo
Could Win: Silver Linings Playbook
Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty

Best Director
Will Win: Ang Lee, Life Of Pi
Could & Should Win: David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

Best Actor
Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Should Win: Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

Best Actress
Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Could Win: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Should Win: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Could Win: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Should Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

Best Supporting Actress
Will, Could & Should Win: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Django Unchained
Could Win: Amour
Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Argo
Could Win: Lincoln
Should Win: Silver Linings Playbook

Best Cinematography
Will Win: Life Of Pi
Could Win: Skyfall
Should Win: Anna Karenina

Best Costume Design
Will Win: Anna Karenina
Could Win: Lincoln
Should Win: Anna Karenina

Best Film Editing
Will Win: Argo
Could Win: Silver Linings Playbook
Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty

Best Makeup
Will Win: Les Miserables

Best Original Score
Will Win: Argo
Could Win: Life Of Pi
Should Win: Anna Karenina

Best Original Song
Will, Could & Should Win: Skyfall

Best Production Design
Will Win: Life Of Pi
Could Win: Lincoln
Should Win: Anna Karenina

Best Sound Editing
Will Win: Argo
Could Win: Skyfall
Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty

Best Sound Mixing
Will Win: Argo
Could Win: Skyfall
Should Win: Skyfall

Best Visual Effects
Will Win: Life Of Pi
Could Win: The Hobbit
Should Win: Life Of Pi

Best Animated Feature
Will Win: Brave
Could & Should Win: Wreck-It Ralph

Best Documentary
Will Win: Searching For Sugar Man

Best Foreign Language Film
Will, Could & Should Win: Amour
Reply With Quote
  #683  
Old 02-19-2013, 01:20 PM
You know, even though I was a bit let down with Frankenweenie.. I still would like to see it win just because I think it would be awesome to see Tim Burton win an Oscar!
Reply With Quote
  #684  
Old 02-19-2013, 10:25 PM
Won't be doing my predictions just yet, but just wanted to chime in and say that Brave is decent on its own, but if you compare it to Frankenweenie, it's crap on a stick.
Reply With Quote
  #685  
Old 02-20-2013, 10:19 PM
If you have any faith in the Academy whatsoever, this article will destroy it for you: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/rac...-ballot-422546

That's from an actual Academy voter, and one from the director's branch no less. I can't believe someone that ignorant is allowed to vote for the Oscars. In addition to not knowing what sound mixing is (and he's a DIRECTOR?!), he also admits that he hasn't seen any of the animated shorts before deciding on voting for Paperman simply because he's heard good things about it. He also says that he won't vote for Michael Haneke because Amour "is just a woman dying, and there's no real story, and it made me feel like shit." He also claims that Haneke "hates human beings." He did still feel obligated to vote for Emmanuelle Riva, however, because in his totally offensive opinion, she "may not even live through Oscar night." This is he after disqualifies Quvenhane Wallis by saying, "I don't vote for anyone whose name I can't pronounce." He puts Lincoln as his second-place pick for Best Picture but says of it, "it's a bore, but it's Spielberg, it's well-meaning, and it's important."

Seriously, why are people like this allowed to vote for the Oscars? I don't have a problem with any of his actual votes, but his reasoning behind his voting is completely ignorant.

Last edited by Tkeyjw; 02-20-2013 at 10:29 PM..
Reply With Quote
  #686  
Old 02-20-2013, 10:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tkeyjw View Post
If you have any faith in the Academy whatsoever, this article will destroy it for you: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/rac...-ballot-422546

That's from an actual Academy voter, and one from the director's branch no less. I can't believe someone that ignorant is allowed to vote for the Oscars. In addition to not knowing what sound mixing is (and he's a DIRECTOR?!), he also admits that he hasn't seen any of the animated shorts before deciding on voting for Paperman simply because he's heard good things about it. He also says that he won't vote for Michael Haneke because Amour "is just a woman dying, and there's no real story, and it made me feel like shit." He also claims that Haneke "hates human beings." He did still feel obligated to vote for Emmanuelle Riva, however, because in his totally offensive opinion, she "may not even live through Oscar night." This is after disqualifies Quvenhane Wallis by saying, "I don't vote for anyone whose name I can't pronounce." He puts Lincoln as his second-place pick for Best Picture but says of it, "it's a bore, but it's Spielberg, it's well-meaning, and it's important."

Seriously, why are people like this allowed to vote for the Oscars? I don't have a problem with any of his actual votes, but his reasoning behind his voting is completely ignorant.
Surely he will get booted out after this?
Reply With Quote
  #687  
Old 02-20-2013, 10:53 PM
OMFG! Is this guy in high school? You guys need to actually click on the link and look at his ballot. It's embarrassing. His comments next to the names is unprofessional and unfathomable for an adult.

He put a heart next to Anne Hathaway, which isn't THAT bad I guess. But then you see next to Tommy Lee Jones he puts down: too grumpy. Annoying next to Sally Field. Jesus Christ!
Reply With Quote
  #688  
Old 02-21-2013, 12:00 AM
My faith in the Academy remains pretty much the same after that article. This doesn't surprise me in the least.

I've read several stories about major actors and their voting, like Sarah Jessica Parker would give her ballot to somebody else to fill out because she hasn't seen the films. I think I also read somewhere that Samuel L. Jackson does this too.

The number of irresponsible voters probably outnumbers the responsible voters.


Any guesses on who the director could be?

Last edited by Matchbox225; 02-21-2013 at 12:09 AM..
Reply With Quote
  #689  
Old 02-21-2013, 12:10 AM
I guess I'm immature as fuck because I found this dude hilarious.

On Tarantino: "Django Unchained will go into my fifth slot — it’s a fun movie, but it’s basically just Quentin Tarantino masturbating for almost three hours."

On Amour: "It’s depressing for people who are dying and for people who have to take care of people who are dying. It’s like, who needs that shit?"

On Academy Screenings: "“You go into that theater, you sit there, you look around, and you just hope that there’s an ambulance outside because a lot of the members in attendance must have aged out of AARP at this point"

Last edited by Gordon; 02-21-2013 at 12:18 AM..
Reply With Quote
  #690  
Old 02-21-2013, 12:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Matchbox225 View Post
Any guesses on who the director could be?
Well, someone on another site suggested it was Brett Ratner. I didn't realize he was a member of the Academy, but apparently he was invited to be a member despite being fired as the show's producer last year. Obviously there's no way of knowing whether or not this is true, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if this ballot were in fact his.

I frankly don't even know which directors are members of the Academy. I'm assuming pretty much everyone who has been nominated for an Oscar is a member. I don't really know of any Oscar-nominated director that strikes me as the type to make comments like the ones in this article, so I'm inclined to just stick with blaming Brett Ratner.

Or maybe it's Terrence Malick getting back at Michael Haneke for all the jokes made at his expense on the fake Michael Haneke Twitter account (which is hilarious, if you've never seen it).
Reply With Quote
  #691  
Old 02-21-2013, 12:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Matchbox225 View Post
Any guesses on who the director could be?
William Friedkin is a name that's been tossed around.
Reply With Quote
  #692  
Old 02-21-2013, 02:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lazy Boy View Post
William Friedkin is a name that's been tossed around.
I thought about him, but I found this.
https://mobile.twitter.com/WilliamFr...8159030273?p=v

It's from Friedkin's twitter. It's to the fake Michael Hanake, but he says he meant it anyway.
Quote:
Congratulations on your beautiful new film@and happy New year to you and suzi..."

It isn't Brett Ratner either, if you go by this tweet.
Quote:
I admire @Michael_Haneke and feel his film #Amour is the best film of the year!
https://mobile.twitter.com/BrettRatn...031227392?p=v#
Reply With Quote
  #693  
Old 02-21-2013, 03:50 AM
Best Picture
Will win: Argo

Best Director
Will win: Ang Lee

Best Actor
Will win: Joaquin Phoenix

Best Actress
Will and should win: Emmanuelle Riva

Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Christoph Waltz

Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Anne Hathaway

Best Original Screenplay
Will win: Django Unchained

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: Lincoln

Best Foreign Language Film
Will win: Amour

Best Animated Feature
Will and should win: Brave

Best Documentary Feature
Will win: Searching for Sugar Man

Best Film Editing
Will and should win: Argo

Best Cinematography
Will win: Skyfall

Best Costume Design
Will win: Les Miserables

Best Production Design
Will win: Anna Karenina

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will win: Les Miserables

Best Visual Effects
Will win: The Hobbit

Best Sound Mixing
Will win: Skyfall

Best Sound Editing
Will win: Skyfall

Best Original Score
Will win: Skyfall

Best Original Song
Will win: Skyfall

Best Animated Short
Will win: Paperman

Best Documentary Short
Will win: Inocente

Best Live Action Short
Will win: Curfew
Reply With Quote
  #694  
Old 02-21-2013, 07:47 PM
Best Picture
Will win: Argo
Could win: Silver Linings Playbook
Should win: Zero Dark Thirty

Best Director
Will win: Michael Haneke
Could win: Ang Lee
Should win: Michael Haneke

Best Actor
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Could win : Hugh Jackman
Should win: Daniel Day-Lewis or Hugh Jackman

Best Actress
Will win: Emmanuelle Riva
Could win: Jennifer Lawrence
Should Win: Naomi Watts

Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Tommy Lee Jones
Could win: Christoph Waltz
Should win: anyone but DeNiro

Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Anne Hathaway
Could Win: no one else has a chance
Should win: Anne Hathaway

Best Original Screenplay
Will win: Zero Dark Thirty
Could win: Amour
Should win: Zero Dark Thirty

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: Argo
Could win: Life of Pi
Should win: Argo

Best Foreign Language Film
Will and should win: Amour


I don't really care about the rest

Comments...

It's a really unpredictable year. Only thing that would really surprise me at this point is if Anne Hathaway doesn't win. Everything else is pretty wide open.

I'd really love to see Naomi Watts win actress. Her performance is by far the best of the bunch, but The Impossible didn't seem to get any award momentum at all. I am still baffled as to wtf J-Law is nominated for the weaker of her two performances this year. I love her, but really hope she doesn't win for this.

There could some kind of weird sweep by either Lincoln or SLP, neither of which would be deserving. Amour can also snag Pic, BA and BD, which would be somewhat shocking, but is entirely possible.

The director race is also freaky since two of the best directing efforts from the best picture list aren't nominated. As long as it doesn't go to Russell or Spielberg, it's good with me.

I'd love to see Jackman pull off an Actor upset. His performance is more flawed than Lewis' but so much more intense. At this point I think Lewis can just show up and get a (deserved) nomination, the man is too good.

I've no idea why DeNiro is nominated. There wasn't even a performance to talk about.

Zero Dark Thirty was pretty clearly the best film of the nominees, but the politics have really hurt it lately. Gotta wonder if it'll show up in votes.
Reply With Quote
  #695  
Old 02-21-2013, 07:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Matchbox225 View Post
I thought about him, but I found this.
https://mobile.twitter.com/WilliamFr...8159030273?p=v

It's from Friedkin's twitter. It's to the fake Michael Hanake, but he says he meant it anyway.



It isn't Brett Ratner either, if you go by this tweet.


https://mobile.twitter.com/BrettRatn...031227392?p=v#
It's definitely not Friedkin. In addition to that Tweet, I've seen interviews with him in which he talked in great detail about the sound mixing in The Exorcist, so there's no way he's that clueless about sound mixing. I didn't really think it was Brett Ratner either, but it seemed to be the best match out of the names I'd heard tossed around.

Someone also suggested it might be James Cameron. I guess he has been known to say slightly disrespectful things about other filmmakers in the past? While he did vote for Zero Dark Thirty in a few categories including Best Picture and made it a point to say that Kathryn Bigelow was his real choice for Best Director (despite being divorced, Cameron remains close friends with Bigelow), I seriously doubt it's him based on the fact that he criticizes Life of Pi for being too computer generated. If the man who made Avatar could say that, then I just wouldn't know how to respond.

I don't know. I can't think of many directors who are known for being antagonistic or obnoxious. I'd say Kevin Smith, but as far as I know he's not an Academy member.
Reply With Quote
  #696  
Old 02-21-2013, 08:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by twisted_state View Post
Best Actor
Will win: Joaquin Phoenix
That's one hell of a bold prediction, but I'll be stoked if you're right.

Quote:
Originally Posted by abishop View Post
There could some kind of weird sweep by either Lincoln or SLP, neither of which would be deserving. Amour can also snag Pic, BA and BD, which would be somewhat shocking, but is entirely possible.
Despite the fact that Amour would win all of those categories if I had my own awards show, I hope it doesn't win Best Picture. I don't think it has much of a chance at all anyway (although I do think Haneke is a potential shocker in Best Director given the totally open nature of the category this year), but even so, I just don't want to have to endure all of the backlash that would occur if they gave Best Picture to Amour. I don't mean in terms of the critical/online community, since I'm pretty sure a lot of critics and cinephiles would love to see Amour win; I mean that the general population would be all "They gave Best Picture to a boring French movie?! They're so out of touch!" I'm happy with the level of exposure Amour has right now. If it actually won Best Picture, it would open wide across the nation, and a lot of people would probably go see it to see what all the fuss is about, and honestly, it's just not a movie that was made to please the masses. I don't want it to be exposed to that kind of vitriol from the general population.
Reply With Quote
  #697  
Old 02-21-2013, 08:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tkeyjw View Post
I don't know. I can't think of many directors who are known for being antagonistic or obnoxious. I'd say Kevin Smith, but as far as I know he's not an Academy member.
I think Kevin Smith is an Academy Member, but it can't be him either. His good friend Ben Affleck directed Argo, so he probably loved it.

I thought about Spike Lee, since he is always going after Tarantino, but I don't think he's somebody who's clueless about sound mixing either.

I don't really know. If we could see a list of all directors who are members, maybe we could narrow it down.
Reply With Quote
  #698  
Old 02-21-2013, 08:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Matchbox225 View Post
I thought about Spike Lee, since he is always going after Tarantino, but I don't think he's somebody who's clueless about sound mixing either.
Spike Lee flat-out said that he wouldn't see Django Unchained, and since this voter has seen it, that rules him out. And even if Spike changed his mind and decided to see it, I still don't think he'd call it "fun," which is how the voter described it at one point in his commentary. I also seriously doubt Spike Lee would be the type to vote against Quvenzhane Wallis on the basis that he can't pronounce her name.

If we were really going to narrow down who this mystery voter could be, it would help to keep in mind that he:
-Hates Michael Haneke
-Does not care for Wes Anderson
-Admires Spielberg enough to vote for him even when he doesn't necessarily care for the movie (he also claims that Spielberg should get an Oscar every 10 years just on the basis of being Steven Spielberg)
-Seems to look down on films with a lot of CGI
-Is generally not too informed about the technical aspects of moviemaking (sound mixing, editing, etc.)
-Does not like religious messages in movies

I'm at a loss.
Reply With Quote
  #699  
Old 02-21-2013, 08:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tkeyjw View Post
Spike Lee flat-out said that he wouldn't see Django Unchained, and since this voter has seen it, that rules him out. And even if Spike changed his mind and decided to see it, I still don't think he'd call it "fun," which is how the voter described it at one point in his commentary. I also seriously doubt Spike Lee would be the type to vote against Quvenzhane Wallis on the basis that he can't pronounce her name.

If we were really going to narrow down who this mystery voter could be, it would help to keep in mind that he:
-Hates Michael Haneke
-Does not care for Wes Anderson
-Admires Spielberg enough to vote for him even when he doesn't necessarily care for the movie (he also claims that Spielberg should get an Oscar every 10 years just on the basis of being Steven Spielberg)
-Seems to look down on films with a lot of CGI
-Is generally not too informed about the technical aspects of moviemaking (sound mixing, editing, etc.)
-Does not like religious messages in movies

I'm at a loss.

How about Jason Reitman? For some of the above comments, he makes complete sense. I don't know if he's that sloppy with his reasoning, but right now I think he makes the most sense.
Reply With Quote
  #700  
Old 02-21-2013, 09:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Matchbox225 View Post
How about Jason Reitman? For some of the above comments, he makes complete sense. I don't know if he's that sloppy with his reasoning, but right now I think he makes the most sense.
I don't really want this thread to turn into a game of guessing who the ignorant voter is, but just to respond to this, I'm pretty sure I've read that Jason Reitman and Wes Anderson are friends. I mean, I guess it's possible that Reitman gets along with Wes Anderson despite not liking his movies, but I don't know about that. Plus Reitman has Tweeted the fake Michael Haneke Twitter account a few times (I love how that keeps coming up in this thread), and while he obviously knows it's a joke, it seems like he actually does like Haneke.

Also something to keep in mind if you're still trying to figure it out: the voter seems to identify himself as being slightly older when he says that he voted online this year so he could feel young again. Based on some of his other comments, he could have just been being facetious by saying that, but I guess it's something to consider.

Last edited by Tkeyjw; 02-21-2013 at 09:09 PM..
Reply With Quote
  #701  
Old 02-21-2013, 09:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tkeyjw View Post
I don't really want this thread to turn into a game of guessing who the ignorant voter is, but just to respond to this, I'm pretty sure I've read that Jason Reitman and Wes Anderson are friends. I mean, I guess it's possible that Reitman gets along with Wes Anderson despite not liking his movies, but I don't know about that. Plus Reitman has Tweeted the fake Michael Haneke Twitter account a few times (I love how that keeps coming up in this thread), and while he obviously knows it's a joke, it seems like he actually does like Haneke.

Also something to keep in mind if you're still trying to figure it out: the voter seems to identify himself as being slightly older when he says that he voted online this year so he could feel young again. Based on some of his other comments, he could have just been being facetious by saying that, but I guess it's something to consider.
It really is pointless to try and look into this further, since I can't find a list of Academy members, so I'm done with that.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Tkeyjw View Post
Despite the fact that Amour would win all of those categories if I had my own awards show, I hope it doesn't win Best Picture. I don't think it has much of a chance at all anyway (although I do think Haneke is a potential shocker in Best Director given the totally open nature of the category this year), but even so, I just don't want to have to endure all of the backlash that would occur if they gave Best Picture to Amour. I don't mean in terms of the critical/online community, since I'm pretty sure a lot of critics and cinephiles would love to see Amour win; I mean that the general population would be all "They gave Best Picture to a boring French movie?! They're so out of touch!" I'm happy with the level of exposure Amour has right now. If it actually won Best Picture, it would open wide across the nation, and a lot of people would probably go see it to see what all the fuss is about, and honestly, it's just not a movie that was made to please the masses. I don't want it to be exposed to that kind of vitriol from the general population.
It's pretty interesting that if Amour won, the critics would love it, but the masses would hate it, but if any combination of Argo, Lincoln, or Silver Linings won Best Picture, I don't think they would hold up as well in the future years by the critics, but the masses would love it that they won since they're popular films.

I'm really pleased to finally see a Foreign film make the lineup with the expanded field. If it didn't happen this year, I would have rather them just go back to five nominees for Best Picture.

I do miss the lone director nominations though. It was cool to see crazy nominations like Paul Greengrass, Atom Egoyan, and David Lynch show up for movies that the Academy normally wouldn't nominate.
Reply With Quote
  #702  
Old 02-22-2013, 12:55 PM
Best Picture
Will win: Argo
Could win: Lincoln
Should win: Amour

Best Director
Will win: Steven Spielberg
Could win: Ang Lee
Should win: Michael Haneke

Best Actor
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Could win : Joaquin Phoenix (it would be the world's greatest upset, but I think he is the only one capable if one were to happen)
Should win: Joaquin Phoenix

Best Actress
Will win: Emmanuelle Riva
Could win: Jennifer Lawrence
Should Win: Emmanuelle Riva

Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Tommy Lee Jones
Could win: Christoph Waltz
Should win: PSH

Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Anne Hathaway
Could Win: Anne Hathaway
Should win: Anne Hathaway

Best Original Screenplay
Will win: Django
Could win: Amour
Should win: Zero Dark Thirty

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: Argo
Could win: Lincoln
Should win: SLP

Best Foreign Language Film
Will win: Amour
Could win: A Royal Affair
Should win: Kon-Tiki
Reply With Quote
  #703  
Old 02-23-2013, 05:16 PM
My predictions/picks. Having a real hard time with O. Screenplay and Director. I have a weird feeling not to count out Russell, even if he didn't get a DGA nom. One of my weird and probably out there hunches. Otherwise, I'm sticking to my frankly conservative choices.

Best Picture
Will win: Argo
Could win: Lincoln
Should win: Zero Dark Thirty

Best Director
Will win: Steven Spielberg
Could win: David O. Russell
Should win: Michael Haneke

Best Actor
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Should win: Joaquin Phoenix

Best Actress
Will win: Jennifer Lawrence
Could win: Emmanuelle Riva
Should Win: Jessica Chastain

Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Tommy Lee Jones
Could win: Christoph Waltz
Should win: Christoph Waltz

Best Supporting Actress
Will and should win: Anne Hathaway

Best Original Screenplay
Will win: Amour
Could win: Django Unchained
Should win: Moonrise Kingdom

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: Argo
Could win: Lincoln
Should win: Lincoln

Best Foreign Language Film
Will and should win: Amour (haven't seen War Witch, No or Kon-Tiki)

Best Cinematography:
Will win: Life of Pi
Should win: Anna Karenina

Best Production Design
Will win: Anna Karenina
Should win: Anna Karenina
Could win: Les Miserables

Best Costume Design
Will win: Anna Karenina
Should win: Mirror Mirror
Could win: Lincoln

Best Original Score
Will win: Life of Pi
Should win: Skyfall
Could win: Argo

Best Original Song
Should and will win: "Skyfall"

Best Animated
Will win: Brave
Should win: Wreck-It Ralph
Could win: Frankenweenie

Best Documentary
Will win: Searching for Sugar Man
Should win: The Gatekeepers
Could win: The Invisible War

Best Visual Effects
Should and will win: Life of Pi

Best Editing
Will win: Argo
Should win: ZD30

Best Makeup
Should and will win: Les Miserables
Could win: Hitchcock

Best Animated Short
Will win: Adam and Dog (other than Paperman, haven't seen any else)

Best Live Action Short
Will win: Curfew

Best Doc Short
Will win: Inocente
Reply With Quote
  #704  
Old 02-23-2013, 08:22 PM
Haha, alright apart from his obviously personal issues with Michael Haneke and "Amour", I gotta say that I agreed with most of what that director said and some of his thoughts (on Zero Dark Thirty, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Les Miserables etc.) mirror my own exactly.

I think a lot of his stuff was said in jest as well so I wouldn't take it too seriously.

But man, that was really an entertaining read

Plus he's voting for Phoenix which is just plain ol' awesome.
Reply With Quote
  #705  
Old 02-24-2013, 01:06 PM
Let me preface this by saying Michael Haneke is one of my favourite directors and responsible for me getting into European cinema back when I was younger. But that Oscar voter is kind of right about Amour.

A bit of a rant here but Amour is largely one-note, and Haneke does very little to make his subject matter go beyond 'look at this woman dying isn't it sad.' His portrayal of topics like the origin of fascism in The White Ribbon, a bourgeois family becoming aware of its complicity in Cache, genre deconstruction in Funny Games, scathing look at upper class life in his first two features, etc. were at least executed in a way that made them compelling even if I didn't agree with what he was saying all the time. I didn't get this in Amour, it was just slowly watching a woman die and Haneke taking advantage of most people being in a similar situation. It might be the first time I'd call Haneke lazy. It's by far his worst movie.

That said, as a longtime fan I'd still like to see him win something. Tonight I'll be ok with Zero Dark Thirty picking up some awards, Joaquin getting Best Actor, Riva or Chastain getting best actress (I keep having an image of Riva being escorted on stage in a golf cart, SORRY) and Ang Lee getting Director. I'll probably not give two shits either way but a pleasant surprise would be nice.
Reply With Quote
  #706  
Old 02-24-2013, 05:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by someguy View Post
A bit of a rant here but Amour is largely one-note, and Haneke does very little to make his subject matter go beyond 'look at this woman dying isn't it sad.' His portrayal of topics like the origin of fascism in The White Ribbon, a bourgeois family becoming aware of its complicity in Cache, genre deconstruction in Funny Games, scathing look at upper class life in his first two features, etc. were at least executed in a way that made them compelling even if I didn't agree with what he was saying all the time. I didn't get this in Amour, it was just slowly watching a woman die and Haneke taking advantage of most people being in a similar situation. It might be the first time I'd call Haneke lazy. It's by far his worst movie.
While your point about it not being as complex as most of his other films is definitely understandable and debatable, I nonetheless think it's unfair to reduce it to just a pity party kind of movie that just shows a woman slowly dying. Maybe it's just a matter of interpretation, but I think the movie is ultimately more about love than death. Hence the title. But your argument is still respectable, and I'm glad you didn't just say "it was boring" like so many others have said. Still, it's either my second or third favorite Haneke movie, with Cache still being my favorite.

Does anyone want to make any last-minute no guts, no glory picks? I'll start. Again, these aren't things I'm actually predicting, just fun "what if" scenarios that are at least within the realm of possibility.

-Lincoln wins Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, and Adapted Screenplay...and still loses Best Picture. Actually, I'm not sure this is such a "no guts, no glory" pick.
-Argo surpasses even its already high expectations and wins 6 of the 7 awards it's up for.
-Amour loses Best Foreign Language Film (because that category is fucked up), but still manages to win Original Screenplay and Actress.
-A scenario I definitely don't want to see: Silver Linings Playbook has a shocking sweep and wins Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, and Adapted Screenplay. It then becomes the most hated movie in the history of the internet.
-Since this is probably a "no guts, no glory" pick at this point, the Best Actress race ends up being so close between Riva and Lawrence that they split the vote, and Chastain wins.
-And least likely of all, after all the buzz that's been built up during precursor seaason, Argo goes home empty-handed.
Reply With Quote
  #707  
Old 02-24-2013, 05:23 PM
NGNG pick: David O. Russell wins Best Director (not something I'd like to see, btw)
Reply With Quote
  #708  
Old 02-24-2013, 05:43 PM
Very conservative, but then, so are the Oscars.

Best Picture
Will win: Argo
Could win: Lincoln
Should win: Amour

Best Director
Will win: Steven Spielberg
Could win: Ang Lee
Should win: Michael Haneke (and could, remotely)

Best Actor
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Should win: Joaquin Phoenix

Best Actress
Will win: Jennifer Lawrence
Could win: Emmanuelle Riva
Should Win: Emmanuelle Riva

Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Tommy Lee Jones
Could win: Christoph Waltz/Robert De Niro (wide open)
Should win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman

Best Supporting Actress
Will and should win: Anne Hathaway

Best Original Screenplay
Will win: Amour
Could win: Django Unchained
Should win: Django Unchained

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: Lincoln
Could win: Argo
Should win: Argo

Best Cinematography:
Will win: Life of Pi
Could win: Skyfall
Should win: Skyfall

Best Editing
Will win: Argo
Could win: Zero Dark Thirty
Should win: Argo

Best Foreign Language Film
Will win: Amour
Could win: War Witch
Should win: N/A (only seen Amour and No)


Best Documentary
Will win: Searching for Sugar Man
Could win: The Gatekeepers
Should win: 5 Broken Cameras

Best Animated
Will win: Wreck-It Ralph
Could win: Frankenweenie
Should win: N/A (seen none)
Reply With Quote
  #709  
Old 02-24-2013, 05:45 PM
NGNG: Haneke wins Best Director
NGNG: Amour goes home empty-handed, losing Foreign Film to Kon-Tiki or Royal Affair.
Reply With Quote
  #710  
Old 02-24-2013, 05:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gordon View Post
NGNG: Haneke wins Best Director
NGNG: Amour goes home empty-handed, losing Foreign Film to Kon-Tiki or Royal Affair.
To kind of play off of your picks, wouldn't it be crazy if Amour won ONLY Best Director?
Reply With Quote
  #711  
Old 02-24-2013, 06:06 PM
Just submitted my ballot, just in time. Some difficult choices there.. Most difficult one for me was Best Foreign Film, I voted Amour, but it could easily be Kon-Tiki as well.. Same for Best Actress, I voted for Riva because it is her bday today, but it should be Naomi Watts. I'm least looking forward to Anne Hathaway winning Best Supporting Actress, it should be Helen Hunt.

Ah well, let's see what happens..

Have fun tonight everyone!
Reply With Quote
  #712  
Old 02-24-2013, 07:56 PM
Anyone know of any good streaming sites for those outside of the US? Can't seem to find one this year.
Reply With Quote
  #713  
Old 02-24-2013, 08:02 PM
My Oscar predictions are here: forgot to post them here! Was rushing like crazy.... Wide open race in a lot of categories I'm looking forward to this one. Go Riva!

http://grapevinepics.com/oscar-predictions/
Reply With Quote
  #714  
Old 02-24-2013, 08:51 PM
Although I really wanted Bobby D. to win, Chrstoph Waltz was my second favorite. So that's cool.

Oh and the sock puppet reenactment of Flight was one of the funniest things I've seen in a long time!

Last edited by ilovemovies; 02-24-2013 at 08:53 PM..
Reply With Quote
  #715  
Old 02-24-2013, 09:00 PM
Wha?!! Brave? Seriously? Ugh. Terrible winner!
Reply With Quote
  #716  
Old 02-24-2013, 09:44 PM
If they're going to hand out the minor awards, why in God's name don't they let them talk? Cutting off the winners so fast in their acceptance speech but letting Rex Reed's hippo and her unfunny dufus do a 5 minute rambling skit makes no sense to me.



Right now, I'm listening to Seth do bad jokes about shooting Lincoln but they can't give winners any time at all?
Reply With Quote
  #717  
Old 02-24-2013, 10:15 PM
[just a guess] say ARGO will win Best Picture
==================================
Here are some of the winners for tonight:

Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway

Sound Mixing
Les Miserables

Sound Editing [tie]
Zero Dark Thirty
Skyfall

Editing
Argo

Production Design
Lincoln

Original Score
Life of Pi

Original Song
Skyfall - Adele

Last edited by Ruly2; 02-24-2013 at 11:18 PM..
Reply With Quote
  #718  
Old 02-24-2013, 11:29 PM
Q. How do you give a speech so arrogant and self-centered it comes across as obnoxious for Hollywood
A. See: Tarantino
Reply With Quote
  #719  
Old 02-24-2013, 11:32 PM
I loved Tarantino's speech. Didn't find it arrogant or self centered at all. He was actually quite gracious.
Reply With Quote
  #720  
Old 02-24-2013, 11:35 PM
Man, I knew it was going to be Ang Lee based on the applause in the room. Did you guys hear how quiet it was when they named Haneke?
Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump