#41  
Old 10-27-2012, 01:15 PM
I wanted to wait until I'd had a chance to see a few of the major contenders (Argo, Silver Linings, Flight) to post my predictions. Still lots of question marks and these are by no means bold choices but here's how I think it stands today. The only real differences between most predictions right now are that I think Promised Land and The Impossible may be serious contenders in many categories and while Cotillard has a very good shot at being nominated, I think Rust and Bone may prove too hard a sell and she may be left out for some of the same reasons Michael Fassbender was last year allowing Watts or Mirren an opportunity to get in the Best Actress race.

Best Picture
Argo
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Silver Linings Playbook

Other Strong Possibilities: Promised Land, Beasts of the Southern Wild, The Master, The Impossible, Zero Dark Thirty, Anna Karenina, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Dark Horses: Django Unchained, Hitchcock, Amour, Moonrise Kingdom, Flight

Best Director
Steven Spielberg – Lincoln
Ben Affleck - Argo
Tom Hooper – Les Miserables
Ang Lee – Life of Pi
David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook

Other Strong Possibilities: Paul Thomas Anderson – The Master, Peter Jackson – The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Kathryn Bigelow - Zero Dark Thirty, Juan Antonio Bayona – The Impossible, Quentin Tarantino – Django Unchained
Dark Horses: Benh Zeitlin – Beasts of the Southern Wild, Wes Anderson – Moonrise Kingdom, Michael Haneke - Amour, Tykwer & Wachowskis – Cloud Atlas, Robert Zemeckis – Flight

Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
Denzel Washington – Flight
Joaquin Phoenix – The Master
John Hawkes – The Sessions
Anthony Hopkins - Hitchcock

Other Strong Possibilites: Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables, Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook, Jean-Louis Trintignant – Amour, Matt Damon – Promised Land, Tom Hanks – Cloud Atlas
Dark Horses: Richard Gere – Arbitrage, Omar Sy – The Intouchables, Ben Affleck – Argo, Brad Pitt – Killing Them Softly, Jamie Foxx – Django Unchained

Best Actress
Jennifer Lawrence -Silver Linings Playbook
Quvenzhane Wallis – Beasts of the Southern Wild
Emannuelle Riva - Amour
Keira Knightly – Anna Karenina
Naomi Watts - The Impossible

Other Strong Possibilities: Marion Cotillard – Rust and Bone, Helen Mirren –Hitchcock, Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty, Meryl Streep - Hope Springs
Dark Horses: Halle Berry – Cloud Atlas, Emayatzy Corinealdi -Middle of Nowhere

Best Supporting Actor
Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln
Phillip Seymour Hoffman – The Master
Robert De Niro -Silver Linings Playbook
Leonardo DiCaprio – Django Unchained
Tom Holland – The Impossible

Other Strong Possibilities: Russell Crowe – Les Miserables, Alan Arkin - Argo, Matthew McConaughey – Magic Mike, William H. Macy – The Sessions, Dwight Henry – Beasts of the Southern Wild
Dark Hores: Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained, Irrfan Khan –Life of Pi, John Goodman – Argo, The rest of the cast of Lincoln

Best Supporting Actress
Sally Field – Lincoln
Helen Hunt – The Sessions
Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables
Amy Adams – The Master
Maggie Smith – Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Other Strong Possibilities: Samantha Barks – Les Miserables, Pauline Collins – Quartet, Frances McDormand – Promised Land, Scarlett Johannson – Hitchcock, Jacki Weaver – Silver Linings Playbook
Dark Horses: Ann Dowd – Compliance, Emily Blunt – Looper, Kristen Stewart – On The Road, Kerry Washington – Django Unchained, Laura Linney – Hyde Park on Hudson

Best Adapted Screenplay
Argo
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Beasts of the Southern Wild

Other Strong Possibilities: Les Miserables, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Cloud Atlas, Hitchcock, The Sessions
Dark Horses: Anna Karenina, Rust and Bone, Killing Them Softly, The Intouchables

Best Original Screenplay
Moonrise Kingdom
Django Unchained
Amour
Promised Land
Zero Dark Thirty

Other Strong Possibilities: The Master, Seven Psychopaths, Flight, Arbitrage
Dark Horses: Looper, The Impossible, The Intouchables, Middle of Nowhere

Best Cinematography
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Django Unchained
The Master
Les Miserables

Other Strong Possibilities: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, The Impossible, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Zero Dark Thirty, Cloud Atlas
Dark Horses: The Dark Knight Rises, Anna Karenina, Flight

Best Editing
Argo
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
Les Miserables
Django Unchained

Other Strong Possibilities: Cloud Atlas, Life of Pi, Beasts of the Southern Wild, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Dark Horses: Flight, Silver Linings Playbook, The Master

Last edited by QUENTIN; 10-28-2012 at 05:35 PM..
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  #42  
Old 10-27-2012, 03:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by QUENTIN View Post
I wanted to wait until I'd had a chance to see a few of the major contenders (Argo, Silver Linings, Flight) to post my predictions. Still lots of question marks and these are by no means bold choices but here's how I think it stands today. The only real differences between most predictions right now is that I think Promised Land and The Impossible may be serious contenders in many categories and while Cotillard has a very good shot at being nominated, I think Rust and Bone may prove too hard a sell and she may be left out for some of the same reasons Michael Fassbender was last year allowing Watts or Mirren an opportunity to get in the Best Actress race.
Yeah, Promised Land is a big question mark. I've heard good things about the script, but I don't know a lot else. I agree that The Impossible could be a contender in many categories. People that haven't seen it are writing it off, but I was there at the world premiere and it got a huge reaction from the audience. I imagine the Academy will be just as moved. It will have its detractors that call it too sentimental, but it's not like that criticism has cost a film an Oscar nomination before. I think Watts will get nominated, and if they put Holland in supporting, that could happen too (he's the soul of the film and the performance is great). I did hear they were campaigning him for lead, in which case he wouldn't have a chance. I still think Cotillard will get in, because she has become quite popular in the industry, but you are right that it's a tough movie to sell.
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  #43  
Old 10-27-2012, 08:50 PM
Looking at Quentin's list, Best Actor looks incredible this year. It's too bad some of these movies didn't come out last year when we had a weaker Best Actor lineup.
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  #44  
Old 10-30-2012, 05:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
There's always an outside chance, but I remember there being similar speculation about Casino Royale after it received rave reviews and it didn't get anything. Casino Royale even had some extremely positive Academy screenings, but it just didn't happen. However, Mendes is more well-regarded, so you never know. I'd say its best chances are in the technical areas, as well as Bardem (who apparently is great). The supporting actor category is packed though.
Somewhat off topic, but Skyfall is a much better film than Casino Royale. Skyfall has a sense of joie de vivre that Royale lacked methinks.
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  #45  
Old 10-30-2012, 11:01 PM
I know it's not going to happen, but I'm really pulling for a best actor nomination for Liam Neeson in The Grey. October is about to end and Neeson STILL has given the best lead actor performance of the year, thus far and The Grey STILL remains my favorite movie of the year!

It's probably going to happen, but it'll be a real shame if The Grey is completely ignored and snubbed at the Academy Awards this year. Or awards in general.

I would argue that Frank Grillo deserves a best supporting actor nomination as well.
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  #46  
Old 10-31-2012, 03:22 PM
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Originally Posted by ilovemovies View Post
I know it's not going to happen, but I'm really pulling for a best actor nomination for Liam Neeson in The Grey. October is about to end and Neeson STILL has given the best lead actor performance of the year, thus far and The Grey STILL remains my favorite movie of the year!

It's probably going to happen, but it'll be a real shame if The Grey is completely ignored and snubbed at the Academy Awards this year. Or awards in general.

I would argue that Frank Grillo deserves a best supporting actor nomination as well.
I don't get the love for The Grey. I think it's good, and very good for an early-year release, but the spiritual element was grade-school in its simplicity. I liked the concluding message of the movie

Spoiler:
that to win wasn't the point, but desiring to live was


but overall I just thought it was fine, nowhere near awards material for anyone involved.

I will say that I am partially swayed because I've spent a fair amount of time with wolves in and out of their enviornment and I know a bit about them, and every single thing the film depicts is brazenly inaccurate and in 90% of the cases is factually the opposite of how wolves actually behave. So that affects my opinion a bit.
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  #47  
Old 11-23-2012, 05:00 PM
Les Miserables just screened and judging by the reactions, it seems like my original prediction may be correct.

Last edited by Bourne101; 11-23-2012 at 05:04 PM..
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  #48  
Old 11-24-2012, 02:43 PM
To me the Best Picture nominees should be: Argo, Looper, Hope Springs, Bernie, and Safety Not Guaranteed.
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  #49  
Old 11-25-2012, 10:15 AM
Wow, sounds like Zero Dark Thirty is incredible. We've got a good race going and still two more big ones to be seen.
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  #50  
Old 11-25-2012, 02:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
Wow, sounds like Zero Dark Thirty is incredible. We've got a good race going and still two more big ones to be seen.
I always thought Kathryn Bigelow is not to be underestimated and that Zero Dark Thirty looks and sounds VERY promising. So I'm quite pleased to hear that word is the movie is great.
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  #51  
Old 11-25-2012, 04:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Racercard View Post
To me the Best Picture nominees should be: Argo, Looper, Hope Springs, Bernie, and Safety Not Guaranteed.
As to the question of could Safety Not Guaranteed be nominated for best picture, the answer is obviously it'll-be-a-cold-day-in-hell-etc. But I'm curious why you think it should be nominated. It's not a film I would expect most people to see outside of the cinéaste and indie-hipster community, and it didn't seem like something that would resonate too deeply with either community.
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  #52  
Old 11-25-2012, 06:37 PM
I just thought Safety Not Guaranteed was a great movie. I doubt that it will be nominated. But I think it's deserving.
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  #53  
Old 11-25-2012, 07:30 PM
Nice to see this thread up and running.

I'ma be back with my predictions tonight, but it's going to be a Lincoln vs. Les Miserables showdown. I've thought that for a while now, and first impressions of the film seem to indicate exactly that. Jackman's getting in for Best Actor as well. Too bad for Life of Pi, a film that's got everything an Oscar wants and that also happens to be fantastic.
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  #54  
Old 11-25-2012, 07:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaMovieMan View Post
Nice to see this thread up and running.

I'ma be back with my predictions tonight, but it's going to be a Lincoln vs. Les Miserables showdown. I've thought that for a while now, and first impressions of the film seem to indicate exactly that. Jackman's getting in for Best Actor as well. Too bad for Life of Pi, a film that's got everything an Oscar wants and that also happens to be fantastic.
I don't see Lincoln making it through the home stretch. It just has too many things that bog it down; it's dull in spots, has a length that it doesn't earn, could lose 30 minutes, and has a bad last few scenes that leave a bitter taste. It's making money, yeah, but I get the feeling that some people just feel obligated to see it. I think Les Mis will take it. It just has everything going for it. I actually think people are really underestimating The Hobbit, but I think that will be more of a nomination thing given that it's open-ended like Fellowship was. Zero Dark is getting some good buzz, but it sounds like it might be a bit too clinical for Academy tastes. Django would be my dark horse prediction. I've heard it's great, if a bit long. I think QT has been cutting it down a bit over the past few weeks though to tighten it up. He did the same thing with Basterds. I think Pi is in the nomination mix, but that last act is going to prevent it from the win. Argo seemed like it was the front runner for a while, and I actually think it's probably still ahead of Lincoln, but I think it peaked too early. Same with Silver Linings, which is going to have to pick its shit up at the box-office if it wants to even have an outside chance.
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  #55  
Old 11-25-2012, 10:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gordon View Post
As to the question of could Safety Not Guaranteed be nominated for best picture, the answer is obviously it'll-be-a-cold-day-in-hell-etc. But I'm curious why you think it should be nominated. It's not a film I would expect most people to see outside of the cinéaste and indie-hipster community, and it didn't seem like something that would resonate too deeply with either community.
Safety Not Guaranteed is great. I love it and I definitely would agree that it's one of the year's best. However, I would also agree that it has very little chance of getting any Oscar nominations. It could get some nominations for the Indie Spirit Awards though.
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  #56  
Old 11-25-2012, 10:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
I don't see Lincoln making it through the home stretch. It just has too many things that bog it down; it's dull in spots, has a length that it doesn't earn, could lose 30 minutes, and has a bad last few scenes that leave a bitter taste. It's making money, yeah, but I get the feeling that some people just feel obligated to see it. I think Les Mis will take it. It just has everything going for it. I actually think people are really underestimating The Hobbit, but I think that will be more of a nomination thing given that it's open-ended like Fellowship was. Zero Dark is getting some good buzz, but it sounds like it might be a bit too clinical for Academy tastes. Django would be my dark horse prediction. I've heard it's great, if a bit long. I think QT has been cutting it down a bit over the past few weeks though to tighten it up. He did the same thing with Basterds. I think Pi is in the nomination mix, but that last act is going to prevent it from the win. Argo seemed like it was the front runner for a while, and I actually think it's probably still ahead of Lincoln, but I think it peaked too early. Same with Silver Linings, which is going to have to pick its shit up at the box-office if it wants to even have an outside chance.
I think that's just your opinion on Lincoln. It's definitely been getting some great reviews, although it has gotten some just good reviews. I think Lincoln is definitely a contender. I think it'll be far more of a contender than Django Unchained. It might be nominated but it definitely won't win. Same with The Hobbit. I think The Hobbit will get a bunch of nominations and will win several technical awards. But probably won't win anything major.

Right now I think the contenders are Argo, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Les Miserables, Zero Dark Thirty. I also wouldn't count out The Impossible. That just seems like the type of movie that could end up surprising and doing well. I know it's buzz coming out TIFF wasn't as strong as Silver Linings Playbook, but I still think it has a chance.

And maybe it is just me, but I think Promised Land looks excellent and maybe, just maybe could be a surprise contender.

That said, I would agree that Les Miserables is probably the current frontrunner to win. Followed by Silver Linings Playbook and then Argo.
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  #57  
Old 11-25-2012, 10:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
I don't see Lincoln making it through the home stretch. It just has too many things that bog it down; it's dull in spots, has a length that it doesn't earn, could lose 30 minutes, and has a bad last few scenes that leave a bitter taste. It's making money, yeah, but I get the feeling that some people just feel obligated to see it. I think Les Mis will take it. It just has everything going for it. I actually think people are really underestimating The Hobbit, but I think that will be more of a nomination thing given that it's open-ended like Fellowship was. Zero Dark is getting some good buzz, but it sounds like it might be a bit too clinical for Academy tastes. Django would be my dark horse prediction. I've heard it's great, if a bit long. I think QT has been cutting it down a bit over the past few weeks though to tighten it up. He did the same thing with Basterds. I think Pi is in the nomination mix, but that last act is going to prevent it from the win. Argo seemed like it was the front runner for a while, and I actually think it's probably still ahead of Lincoln, but I think it peaked too early. Same with Silver Linings, which is going to have to pick its shit up at the box-office if it wants to even have an outside chance.
Yeah, I say forget Silver Linings Playbook winning anything except maybe actress (which would be ridiculous because Lawrence is nowhere near as good as the critics are making her out to be. Riva, Cotillard and Watts destroy her.). As for Lincoln, I wouldn't be so quick to shrug it off. It's actually in the lead now and the campaign is going to be heavy on it. Add to the context of the elections, how Spielberg hasn't had a winner in years, the studio either, the excellent script (I'd be surprised if anything else won at this point) and all around brilliant acting. Besides, since when have a few bad scenes stopped a movie from winning Best Picture?

I think Argo is about to expire from all the steam it's losing, and that sucks because I loved it.

Django screened already? I didn't know about that. I don't know how big of a player that's gonna be, it might get in the BP if it's going to be 10 movies again this year but it won't really be a threat. Not only is it going to be a bit too edgy for the Academy, but they won't really take it too seriously. I could be way off though, we'll see.

The Hobbit, not really thought about it. Outside of some possible tech noms, I don't see it getting in anything bigger.

Anywho, here are my predictions.

BEST PICTURE
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Argo
Life of Pi
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Impossible
The Master
Django Unchained

BEST DIRECTOR
Steven Spielberg - Lincoln
Tom Hooper - Les Miz
Kathryn Bigelow - Zero Dark Thirty
Ben Affleck - Argo
Ang Lee - Life of Pi

BEST ACTOR
Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
Joaquin Phoenix - The Master
John Hawkes - The Sessions
Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
Denzel Washington - Flight

BEST ACTRESS
Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
Quvenzhane Wallis – Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts - The Impossible
Helen Mirren - Hitchcock
Emmanuel Riva - Amour

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (jam-packed as usual)
Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
Ewan McGregor - The Impossible
Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
Samuel L. Jackson - Django Unchained
Robert DeNiro - Silver Linings Playbook

(Strong alternates: Albert Brooks - This is 40, Leonardo DiCaprio - Django Unchained, Russel Crowe - Les Miserables, Tom Holland - The Impossible)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway - Les Miz (winner)
Helen Hunt - The Sessions
Amy Adams - The Master
Sally Field - Lincoln
Samantha Banks - Les Miz

BEST ORIGINAL SCRIPT
Promised Land
The Master
Django Unchained
Zero Dark Thirty
Arbitrage

BEST ADAPTED SCRIPT
Lincoln
Argo
Les Miz
Life of Pi
Silver Linings Playbook

( I reserve the right to change my mind on any of those categories )

Last edited by DaMovieMan; 11-25-2012 at 10:22 PM..
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  #58  
Old 11-25-2012, 10:25 PM
I fully realize I'm in the minority, but I'm really hoping The Master doesn't make the cut. At least for best picture and best director. I wouldn't really mind if it gets a best actor and supporting actor nomination because while I'm not a fan of the movie, I will concede that the acting, particularly by Phoenix and Hoffman, is mostly great. Still, best actor is a HIGHLY competitive category this year. Wouldn't surprise me to see it snubbed even there.
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  #59  
Old 11-25-2012, 10:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ilovemovies View Post
Safety Not Guaranteed is great. I love it and I definitely would agree that it's one of the year's best. However, I would also agree that it has very little chance of getting any Oscar nominations. It could get some nominations for the Indie Spirit Awards though.
Oh yeah, I have no doubt that it'll do well at the Indie Spirit Awards. But it doesn't have a shot in hell of being nominated in any of the major Oscar categories. While I liked it, I think that isn't to the quality of something like, say, Your Sister's Sister.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ilovemovies View Post
I fully realize I'm in the minority, but I'm really hoping The Master doesn't make the cut. At least for best picture and best director. I wouldn't really mind if it gets a best actor and supporting actor nomination because while I'm not a fan of the movie, I will concede that the acting, particularly by Phoenix and Hoffman, is mostly great. Still, best actor is a HIGHLY competitive category this year. Wouldn't surprise me to see it snubbed even there.
Phoenix almost certainly won't win given his general attitude towards the academy and everything academy voting stands for. Still, to suggest he shouldn't even get nominated is absolutely insane. I think he gave the best acting performance in all of world cinema since...DDL in There Will Be Blood.
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  #60  
Old 11-25-2012, 10:39 PM
Phoenix was great, no doubt. Of all my problems with The Master, acting isn't one of them. But I think there are other great performances that I'd rather see nominated over Phoenix. By far the best performance from ANYONE this year was DDL in Lincoln. He was amazing. I actually think Day Lewis is better in Lincoln than even in There Will Be Blood.
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  #61  
Old 11-25-2012, 10:41 PM
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Originally Posted by ilovemovies View Post
I think that's just your opinion on Lincoln. It's definitely been getting some great reviews, although it has gotten some just good reviews. I think Lincoln is definitely a contender.
Yeah, it's my opinion, but I've heard a lot of people say the same thing. Even people who love it (and I don't know how many people truly love it) complain about the ending. It will get nominated, but it won't win. I'm very confident about that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ilovemovies View Post
I think it'll be far more of a contender than Django Unchained. It might be nominated but it definitely won't win. Same with The Hobbit. I think The Hobbit will get a bunch of nominations and will win several technical awards. But probably won't win anything major.
I'm not saying Django will win or even that it's a contender. It's just a dark horse that I'm keeping in the back of my mind as everyone writes it off. It's a crowd-pleaser with a great ensemble, an epic scale and a surprising amount of heart. And I agree that The Hobbit won't win anything big, I just said that I think it will get many nominations.

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Originally Posted by ilovemovies View Post
And maybe it is just me, but I think Promised Land looks excellent and maybe, just maybe could be a surprise contender.
It has been seen and apparently isn't all that good.
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  #62  
Old 11-25-2012, 10:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaMovieMan View Post
As for Lincoln, I wouldn't be so quick to shrug it off. It's actually in the lead now and the campaign is going to be heavy on it. Add to the context of the elections, how Spielberg hasn't had a winner in years, the studio either, the excellent script (I'd be surprised if anything else won at this point) and all around brilliant acting. Besides, since when have a few bad scenes stopped a movie from winning Best Picture?
I honestly think any lead it had (i.e., for the few days it was making box-office headlines that made it temporarily overshadow Argo) went away the second that Les Miserables screened. The campaign may be heavy, but you're going to have campaigns just as big for Les Miserables and Harvey's films. I also am not so sure that the script will win. That's a very competitive category. And it has more than a few bad scenes. The ones at the end just particularly stand out.

I'm a Spielberg fan and I know when he's made something that has the potential to win best picture/best director. This isn't it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DaMovieMan View Post
I think Argo is about to expire from all the steam it's losing, and that sucks because I loved it.
I wouldn't say it's losing a ton of steam, it's just getting naturally overshadowed as other films have their premieres and open in theatres. Once the dust settles, it could still very well be at the top of the list. Having said that, I still think there are one or two films that will end up ahead of it because it peaked so early.

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Originally Posted by DaMovieMan View Post
Django screened already? I didn't know about that. I don't know how big of a player that's gonna be, it might get in the BP if it's going to be 10 movies again this year but it won't really be a threat. Not only is it going to be a bit too edgy for the Academy, but they won't really take it too seriously. I could be way off though, we'll see.
Tarantino screened a rough cut and some reactions leaked. Sounds like DiCaprio may end up being the frontrunner for supporting. I wouldn't be so sure about it not being a threat and being too edgy. People said the same thing about Basterds back in 09, and it ended up being probably the third most likely to win that year. Django will have the actors, crafts people and writers all on its side. I don't think it will win, but I'm not going to write it off until it has been seen by some critics/bloggers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DaMovieMan View Post
The Hobbit, not really thought about it. Outside of some possible tech noms, I don't see it getting in anything bigger.
You could be very right. I just have a sneaking suspicion that it will get nominations across the board (save for acting), even if it doesn't win anything.
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  #63  
Old 11-25-2012, 11:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
You could be very right. I just have a sneaking suspicion that it will get nominations across the board (save for acting), even if it doesn't win anything.
The campaign to get Sylvester McCoy a supporting actor nomination starts here!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Ks8BA5psNM
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  #64  
Old 11-26-2012, 08:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
I honestly think any lead it had (i.e., for the few days it was making box-office headlines that made it temporarily overshadow Argo) went away the second that Les Miserables screened. The campaign may be heavy, but you're going to have campaigns just as big for Les Miserables and Harvey's films. I also am not so sure that the script will win. That's a very competitive category. And it has more than a few bad scenes. The ones at the end just particularly stand out.
I guess you didn't like the movie that much, it didn't know when to end but that's signature Spielberg, but other than those in the end I'm not sure what other bad scenes you mean. Lincoln was clearly in the lead as soon as it opened and started making impressive box office numbers. You can argue that Les Miserables screened and made everyone realize how tight of a race this is, but it didn't take the lead, it needs to open to a wide audience first in order to take the lead. Les Miz took some of the spotlight, but Lincoln is going to be pushed heavily. Harvey won't win three in a row especially with such an averagely good film like Silver Linings, and Hooper just won a minute ago with King's Speech. Lincoln is clearly the favorite, still. Zero Dark Thirty might make things a bit more interesting.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
I'm a Spielberg fan and I know when he's made something that has the potential to win best picture/best director. This isn't it.
I love the irony. I'm not a Spielberg fan, and I don't think it takes a fan to know if he's got an Oscar winner on his hands. It's the best film he's done since Munich and the most important since, Saving Private Ryan? It's got a healthy 86 at Metacritic (same as Argo). I think you're underestimating its potential.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
I wouldn't say it's losing a ton of steam, it's just getting naturally overshadowed as other films have their premieres and open in theatres. Once the dust settles, it could still very well be at the top of the list. Having said that, I still think there are one or two films that will end up ahead of it because it peaked so early.
Nothing would make me happier if Argo ends up on top after the dust, but that sounds idealistic to me. A few films will end up ahead of it I think too, one of them being Lincoln.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
Tarantino screened a rough cut and some reactions leaked. Sounds like DiCaprio may end up being the frontrunner for supporting. I wouldn't be so sure about it not being a threat and being too edgy. People said the same thing about Basterds back in 09, and it ended up being probably the third most likely to win that year. Django will have the actors, crafts people and writers all on its side. I don't think it will win, but I'm not going to write it off until it has been seen by some critics/bloggers.
It's bold to predict DiCaprio as a possible front runner after only a rough cut screening. I remembered actually that Tapley talked about the rough cut screening, that's why I put Sam Jackson as a no guts no glory pick in my prediction list because word has been strong on him too. Basterds had something Django doesn't, an early screen date and a lock win with Supporting Actor ever since Cannes. I'm not writing it off either but I don't think it will win, and I'm not sure DiCaprio will get his first Oscar playing a character like Calvin Candie. It's still way too early to tell though.
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  #65  
Old 11-26-2012, 12:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaMovieMan View Post
I guess you didn't like the movie that much, it didn't know when to end but that's signature Spielberg, but other than those in the end I'm not sure what other bad scenes you mean.
I didn't hate the movie, but I had some pretty big issues with it. Other bad scenes include pretty much every scene between DDL and Sally Field, as well as pretty much every scene with Joseph Gordon-Levitt. Not to mention repetitive scenes where Lincoln tells a ten minute story that inspires everyone in the room. I'm sure he did that in real life, but cinematically I can only take so much of it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DaMovieMan View Post
Lincoln is clearly the favorite, still.
I disagree. I would bet quite a bit that when the next Gurus update occurs, Les Mis will take the lead. Sasha Stone will stick with Lincoln to the end because that's what she does (picks her favorite movie and tries to convince everyone that it will win), but guys like Tapley who look at things objectively will pick Les Mis. When Lincoln first screened, it was a mixed bag of reactions. The reactions have improved since then and it has some money under its belt, but I just don't get this sense that people are absolutely falling in love with it. Les Mis, on the other hand, has screened for guild and Academy members and is getting rousing reactions after every screening.

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Originally Posted by DaMovieMan View Post
I think you're underestimating its potential.
I really don't. I think it will end up in the 3rd or 4th spot within a few weeks. The only thing it will win will be DDL and maybe screenplay. Right now Lincoln only leads Argo by one point on Gurus, and that's after a big opening and plenty of press surrounding it. Throw in Les Mis and Zero Dark Thirty, and I think you'll see it drop down a few spots.

Last edited by Bourne101; 11-26-2012 at 12:21 PM..
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  #66  
Old 11-26-2012, 12:58 PM
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Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
I didn't hate the movie, but I had some pretty big issues with it. Other bad scenes include pretty much every scene between DDL and Sally Field, as well as pretty much every scene with Joseph Gordon-Levitt. Not to mention repetitive scenes where Lincoln tells a ten minute story that inspires everyone in the room. I'm sure he did that in real life, but cinematically I can only take so much of it.
Well, it's historically accurate so even though Sally Field overdid it for my tastes too, Mary Todd was even more annoying in real life if sources are to be believed. As for Lincoln telling stories, which is also historically accurate, I'm not sure how many people you'll find to agree with you on that. The scenes that have his stories were actually some of the best, for me. Day-Lewis as Lincoln is uncanny, and I think that's pretty much the consensus from everyone who's seen it regardless of how much they liked the overall film.

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Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
I disagree. I would bet quite a bit that when the next Gurus update occurs, Les Mis will take the lead. Sasha Stone will stick with Lincoln to the end because that's what she does (picks her favorite movie and tries to convince everyone that it will win), but guys like Tapley who look at things objectively will pick Les Mis. When Lincoln first screened, it was a mixed bag of reactions. The reactions have improved since then and it has some money under its belt, but I just don't get this sense that people are absolutely falling in love with it. Les Mis, on the other hand, has screened for guild and Academy members and is getting rousing reactions after every screening.
Like I said earlier, i think it will be a Lincoln vs. Les Miz showdown. If anything is going to take the lead it's going to be Les Miz, I'm just waiting for more critics to review it and for the first-impression-syndrome to die down a bit. It's a 3 hour musical with live singing which tells a pretty depressing tale at the end of the day. Cut it any way you like that's going to be hard to hail as a front runner UNLESS it makes huge box office numbers and has major critical support. It's going to be a major contender no doubt but it's way too early to tell how major. I'm anticipating the next Gurus.

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Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
I really don't. I think it will end up in the 3rd or 4th spot within a few weeks. The only thing it will win will be DDL and maybe screenplay. Right now Lincoln only leads Argo by one point on Gurus, and that's after a big opening and plenty of press surrounding it. Throw in Les Mis and Zero Dark Thirty, and I think you'll see it drop down a few spots.
..and Argo probably dropping even more. I think that's where you and I disagree most. As for Lincoln, that's a very possible scenario. Zero Dark Thirty is making major impressions, I'll probably be bumping out one of the ladies to put Chastain in there because she seems to be getting the most praise, but it's reportedly very dark, gritty, shows the ugly side of torture. Not sure how many people are going to want to award that, especially after Hurt Locker winning recently.

Don't count out Jones for Lincoln, if anyone is leading Sup. Actors now, it's him. I see a big possibility of Spielberg winning Director and Les Miz winning Picture, something like that, and if DDL manages a third Best Actor Oscar that would be fantastic but I can't call that now - that category is packed.
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  #67  
Old 11-26-2012, 01:05 PM
The early reviews for Zero Dark Thirty suggest it's very heavy on procedural information, and there's not much emotion to it. It seems like none of that is meant as a criticism, since people have been quite positive on the film, but it definitely seems like it's way more cerebral and calculated as opposed to the visceral, suspenseful feel that The Hurt Locker had. Chastain is getting great notices, but people have made it a point to note her character's lack of an emotional arc. So in Academy terms, she'll likely be nominated, but she probably won't win. It seems like Zero Dark Thirty might be to war films what Zodiac was to serial killer films, which is potentially exciting, but not necessarily a good sign in terms of Oscar prospects. I predict nominations for Chastain, the screenplay, and possibly editing and/or sound, but based on early word, I don't sense it'll be a big Picture/Director play. It's probably too distant and heady to really catch on with the Academy.

I've also seen some people claim that Django Unchained was more Kill Bill than Inglourious Basterds, so I'm remaining guarded about its Oscar chances.

Really, though, the big story is that Les Miserables is getting amazing reactions, and if that continues up to its release, it's probably the one to beat. I think Hugh Jackman could even win Best Actor over Daniel Day-Lewis if the movie really becomes an awards juggernaut.

With its really great box office performance and strong reviews, I think Skyfall will probably get a PGA nomination, and while it's a dark horse at best for a Best Picture nod, I could easily see it getting as many as 5 Oscar nominations (for instance: Editing, both sound categories, Cinematography, Original Song). It's tough to say what will become of The Hobbit, because on the one hand, it could receive a "been there, done that" sort of reaction, but on the other hand, it could wow everyone and be just as acclaimed as its predecessors, in which case I think a Best Picture nomination could still be headed its way (though a win is entirely out of the question, I think).
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  #68  
Old 11-26-2012, 01:47 PM
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Originally Posted by DaMovieMan View Post
Well, it's historically accurate so even though Sally Field overdid it for my tastes too, Mary Todd was even more annoying in real life if sources are to be believed. As for Lincoln telling stories, which is also historically accurate, I'm not sure how many people you'll find to agree with you on that. The scenes that have his stories were actually some of the best, for me. Day-Lewis as Lincoln is uncanny, and I think that's pretty much the consensus from everyone who's seen it regardless of how much they liked the overall film.
I liked a few of the scenes in which he told stories, but it seemed like every other scene he was doing it. It just became repetitive. Just because something is historically accurate doesn't mean it works cinematically. And I agree, DDL was great.

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Originally Posted by DaMovieMan View Post
Cut it any way you like that's going to be hard to hail as a front runner UNLESS it makes huge box office numbers and has major critical support.
It's based on a highly acclaimed and almost universally loved play (I've never seen it, but that seems to be the consensus), directed by a guy who makes movies that the Academy loves, and has already had incredibly enthusiastic reactions at Guild/Academy screenings. I think it's pretty easy to hail as a front runner. Good box-office is pretty much a certainty. It's the kind of movie that will do well around the holidays.

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Originally Posted by DaMovieMan View Post
..and Argo probably dropping even more. I think that's where you and I disagree most.
I never said that Argo wouldn't drop, I'm just saying that if Lincoln can barely nudge out Argo after Argo peaked three months ago, how is Lincoln going to hold up against some of the upcoming beasts?

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Originally Posted by DaMovieMan View Post
Don't count out Jones for Lincoln, if anyone is leading Sup. Actors now, it's him. I see a big possibility of Spielberg winning Director and Les Miz winning Picture, something like that, and if DDL manages a third Best Actor Oscar that would be fantastic but I can't call that now - that category is packed.
Jones may win, but as I've said all along, I think DiCaprio will take that. Until the film screens and indicates otherwise, I'm sticking with it. I think the likelihood of a picture/director split is pretty much zero. It's not that kind of year.

Last edited by Bourne101; 11-26-2012 at 02:07 PM..
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  #69  
Old 11-26-2012, 02:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
I liked a few of the scenes in which he told stories, but it seemed like every other scene he was doing it. It just became repetitive. Just because something is historically accurate doesn't mean it works cinematically. And I agree, DDL was great.
There's three storytelling moments from my count and one that had the audience I was with almost on their feet (the bathroom one). So you're overstating things a little bit I think. It's a "talky" movie no doubt about it, but it's got the acting, the cinematography and the art deco to make it pretty cinematic.

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Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
It's based on a highly acclaimed and almost universally loved play (I've never seen it, but that seems to be the consensus), directed by a guy who makes movies that the Academy loves, and has already had incredibly enthusiastic reactions at Guild/Academy screenings. I think it's pretty easy to hail as a front runner. Good box-office is pretty much a certainty. It's the kind of movie that will do well around the holidays.
That's all very true. One thing's for sure, it needs to do VERY well and has to have its critics ratings in the high 80s. Until it's released, we won't know.

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Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
I never said that Argo wouldn't drop, I'm just saying that if Lincoln can barely nudge out Argo after Argo peaked three months ago, how is Lincoln going to hold up against some of the upcoming beasts?
I think that just speaks to the quality of Argo, rather than the lack thereof in Lincoln. It's still selling out in theaters, and as long as the box office numbers continue to rise, it will hold up pretty nicely I think.

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Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
Jones may win, but as I've said all along, I think DiCaprio will take that. Until the film screens and indicates otherwise, I'm sticking with it. I think the likelihood of a picture/director split is pretty much zero. It's not that kind of year.
Could very well be DiCaprio's. I don't see it happening for a role like this, but stranger things have happened for sure.

That last bit, is that your gut instinct or could you elaborate on that a little bit? What makes it not that kind of year? We haven't had a split since 2006. And are you saying that you think Hooper or Bigelow have a bigger chance at winning Director than Spielberg?
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  #70  
Old 11-26-2012, 02:51 PM
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Originally Posted by DaMovieMan View Post
That last bit, is that your gut instinct or could you elaborate on that a little bit? What makes it not that kind of year? We haven't had a split since 2006. And are you saying that you think Hooper or Bigelow have a bigger chance at winning Director than Spielberg?
All of these films are director's films. Whatever film wins best picture is going to win best director. If Les Mis wins BP, as I suspect it will, I think Hooper has a better chance of winning than Spielberg. There hasn't been a split since 2005, where Crash won BP and Brokeback won director. Crash wasn't really a director's movie. It was a very small movie. It would be kind of weird for Les Mis to win BP and not also win director when it has epic scale and is implementing musical techniques that have rarely been used. It would be even weirder for Spielberg to win director in that scenario given that Lincoln basically takes place in 2 or 3 rooms. It's a very well-directed film, but I would be surprised if it won director unless it wins BP.

Splits happen when a film that isn't one of the most technically accomplished ends up winning BP. The only scenario this season that would fit that bill would be if by a rare chance Silver Linings won BP.

Last edited by Bourne101; 11-26-2012 at 03:01 PM..
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  #71  
Old 11-26-2012, 03:49 PM
Didn't Les Mis screen once? I know it had a big reaction, but keep in mind this was a premiere screening with the director/some of the cast attending. If we judged by this standard back at TIFF we all could have put Cloud Atlas at the top of our BP picks.
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  #72  
Old 11-26-2012, 03:56 PM
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Originally Posted by someguy View Post
Didn't Les Mis screen once? I know it had a big reaction, but keep in mind this was a premiere screening with the director/some of the cast attending. If we judged by this standard back at TIFF we all could have put Cloud Atlas at the top of our BP picks.
It has had a number of screenings in NY/LA. I agree that it's not easy to gauge the status of a film in the awards race based on a handful of screenings, but it does sound like it has a pretty good chance of winning.
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  #73  
Old 11-26-2012, 07:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
All of these films are director's films. Whatever film wins best picture is going to win best director. If Les Mis wins BP, as I suspect it will, I think Hooper has a better chance of winning than Spielberg. There hasn't been a split since 2005, where Crash won BP and Brokeback won director. Crash wasn't really a director's movie. It was a very small movie. It would be kind of weird for Les Mis to win BP and not also win director when it has epic scale and is implementing musical techniques that have rarely been used. It would be even weirder for Spielberg to win director in that scenario given that Lincoln basically takes place in 2 or 3 rooms. It's a very well-directed film, but I would be surprised if it won director unless it wins BP.

Splits happen when a film that isn't one of the most technically accomplished ends up winning BP. The only scenario this season that would fit that bill would be if by a rare chance Silver Linings won BP.
Those are some good points. I'd agree that if Lincoln wins BP, it would be weird for anyone else to win Director other than Spielberg. (For that matter, it would be weird for any actor other than DDL to win in that case too) But I'm not completely convinced with Les Miz. Last time a musical won, its director didn't (Chicago in 2003) and I didn't hear much praise about Hooper specifically from the Les Miz reactions. It was all, Hathaway this and Jackman that. The story is emotional, epic, the sets will most likely be gorgeous. Adapted Screenpay and the techy stuff with costumes and art deco don't have to worry. I think a strong case can be made that a split is possible if Les Miz wins Best Picture and not only because Hooper just won, but that's also something to consider.

Anyways, everyone hear about Hopkins describing the Oscars as 'disgusting'? I love this guy.
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  #74  
Old 11-26-2012, 08:03 PM
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Originally Posted by DaMovieMan View Post
The story is emotional, epic, the sets will most likely be gorgeous. Adapted Screenpay and the techy stuff with costumes and art deco don't have to worry. I think a strong case can be made that a split is possible if Les Miz wins Best Picture and not only because Hooper just won, but that's also something to consider.
Actually, I wouldn't say Adapted Screenplay is safe at all. The movie is entirely sung, and I'm not sure how much the writers' branch will consider that dialogue. Not that a screenplay is all about dialogue, of course (The Artist was nominated last year, after all), but from what I've heard, the movie is very faithful to the source material and has no spoken dialogue whatsoever, so it's hard to say how big of an accomplishment the writers will find that. I don't think it's even a secure bet for a nomination, and I think a win would be outright shocking.

And you'll see more praise for Hooper once more reviews start to pour in. His decision to do live singing along with the supposedly innovative way he chose to transition between scenes make it seem like this is much more of a director's movie than one would assume just from the trailers. I'd be surprised if it won Best Picture without winning Best Director, specifically since I'm not sure who could win Director without winning Picture. I think Bourne101 is right: the only split scenario I could imagine would be if Silver Linings Playbook won Best Picture, and that's just not going to happen.

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Anyways, everyone hear about Hopkins describing the Oscars as 'disgusting'? I love this guy.
I think he said the process of campaigning was disgusting, not the Oscars themselves, but either way, he's awesome.
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  #75  
Old 11-26-2012, 08:13 PM
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Originally Posted by DaMovieMan View Post
But I'm not completely convinced with Les Miz. Last time a musical won, its director didn't (Chicago in 2003) and I didn't hear much praise about Hooper specifically from the Les Miz reactions. It was all, Hathaway this and Jackman that. The story is emotional, epic, the sets will most likely be gorgeous. Adapted Screenpay and the techy stuff with costumes and art deco don't have to worry. I think a strong case can be made that a split is possible if Les Miz wins Best Picture and not only because Hooper just won, but that's also something to consider.
I have thought about the fact that Hooper just won, but I don't know how big of a factor that will actually be. Chicago was a bit different in that it wasn't as epic as Les Mis and didn't take the kind of directorial risks that Les Mis (apparently) has. I have some pretty huge problems with Tom Hooper's direction in general, but people seem to like his style and his movies, so I don't see why they wouldn't reward him again if Les Mis does end up winning best picture.
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  #76  
Old 11-26-2012, 08:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Tkeyjw View Post
Actually, I wouldn't say Adapted Screenplay is safe at all. The movie is entirely sung, and I'm not sure how much the writers' branch will consider that dialogue. Not that a screenplay is all about dialogue, of course (The Artist was nominated last year, after all), but from what I've heard, the movie is very faithful to the source material and has no spoken dialogue whatsoever, so it's hard to say how big of an accomplishment the writers will find that. I don't think it's even a secure bet for a nomination, and I think a win would be outright shocking.

And you'll see more praise for Hooper once more reviews start to pour in. His decision to do live singing along with the supposedly innovative way he chose to transition between scenes make it seem like this is much more of a director's movie than one would assume just from the trailers. I'd be surprised if it won Best Picture without winning Best Director, specifically since I'm not sure who could win Director without winning Picture. I think Bourne101 is right: the only split scenario I could imagine would be if Silver Linings Playbook won Best Picture, and that's just not going to happen.
There's spoken dialogue in the trailer no? Maybe it's speak leading to song, not sure, but anyways, I didn't mean to say that Les Miz is winning Adapted. That's gonna be Lincoln. But I have a feeling it will get a shitload of nominations, including Screenplay.

As for the split, it's interesting. I'll have to wait for those reviews, I did read that Jackman was praising Hooper to high heavens about how he directed them. So that's something to consider for sure. The other very possible candidate to win director is Affleck, proving himself time and time again with excellent movies, Argo just might be the one he gets it for. It's his best after all. And again, in that scenario, I don't see Argo winning Best Picture next to Les Miz or Lincoln. Hmmm...

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Originally Posted by Tkeyjw View Post
I think he said the process of campaigning was disgusting, not the Oscars themselves, but either way, he's awesome.
Yeah the process of campaigning, right right. Pretty much buried his nomination chances there, but whatever, he's a class act.
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  #77  
Old 11-26-2012, 08:33 PM
Also, just as a heads up, I believe The Hobbit screens tomorrow (and throughout the week) and Django screens on the weekend so everything will have been seen by next Monday at the latest.
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  #78  
Old 11-26-2012, 08:43 PM
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Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
Also, just as a heads up, I believe The Hobbit screens tomorrow (and throughout the week) and Django screens on the weekend so everything will have been seen by next Monday at the latest.
Yep Hobbit world premiere, tomorrow in my city....its going nuts.

I'm too lazy to look but has buzz for Hitchcock been any good?
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  #79  
Old 11-26-2012, 08:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Hucksta G View Post
I'm too lazy to look but has buzz for Hitchcock been any good?
Sounds more like light entertainment... maybe a few acting nominations. Honestly, I think it looks entertaining as hell. I don't necessarily need a profound look at Hitchcock, I just want to see the shenanigans that went down on the set of Psycho!
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  #80  
Old 11-26-2012, 08:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
Sounds more like light entertainment... maybe a few acting nominations. Honestly, I think it looks entertaining as hell. I don't necessarily need a profound look at Hitchcock, I just want to see the shenanigans that went down on the set of Psycho!
Cheers, yeah that all sounds quite inviting to me!
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