#1881  
Old 06-01-2008, 01:20 PM
1. Kung Fu Panda- $45 million
2. You Don't Mess with the Zohan- $35 million
3. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull- $23 million
4. Sex and the City- $22 million
5. The Strangers- $10.25 million
6. Iron Man- $9 million
7. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian- $7 million
8. What Happens in Vegas- $4.75 million
9. Baby Mama- $1.75 million
10. Made of Honor- $1.25 million

Kung Fu Panda should do very well. Zohan should pull in the annual Sandler opening of $35-40 million. Indiana Jones should drop about 50%. Sex and the City should drop like a rock. The Strangers should drop around 50%. Iron Man should have another small drop, as should Narnia, Vegas, Baby Mama, and Made of Honor.
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  #1882  
Old 06-05-2008, 11:19 AM
Weekend of June 6 - 8:

1. Kung Fu Panda - $49 million
2. Zohan - $33 million
3. Indiana Jones - $25 million
4. Sex and the City - $23 million
5. Iron Man - $9 million
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  #1883  
Old 06-05-2008, 06:11 PM
Kung Fu Panda - 55 millon
Zohan - 31 millon


Sex and The City second weekend overall - 40 millon
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  #1884  
Old 06-05-2008, 10:06 PM
Kung Fu Panda......... $53.4 million
Zohan.................... $37.9 million
Indiana Jones.......... $24.6 million
Sex and the City...... $21.8 million
The Strangers......... $10.1 million
Iron Man.................. $8.4 million
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  #1885  
Old 06-08-2008, 11:43 AM
1. The Incredible Hulk- $65 million
2. Kung Fu Panda- $33 million
3. The Happening- $30 million
4. You Don't Mess with the Zohan- $22 million
5. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull- $12 million
6. Sex and the City- $11 million
7. The Strangers- $5 million
8. Iron Man- $4.5 million
9. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian- $3 million
10. What Happens in Vegas- $1.75 million

The Incredible Hulk is tracking around $65 million, and I expect it will make just that. Kung Fu Panda should hold up pretty well. The Happening is tracking around $25 million, but I think it will make a bit more. Zohan should drop a bit less than 50%.
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  #1886  
Old 06-08-2008, 12:23 PM
That sounds right for the Hulk , but i'm thinking 70 mil . It's time to pay the piper for the women that drug their male counterparts to S and C .

I guess Panda is an obvious one for second place , and there is no competition for it , so it should hold well . The Happening , i'll go with 30 , and that will be a good thing , i doubt it cost that much to make . It will also mean Night still has something in the tank and people haven't totally abandoned him .

Freak it , just cut and paste your list , the only difference is Hulk , i think it will do just a bit more .
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  #1887  
Old 06-08-2008, 12:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dellamorte dellamore View Post
The Happening , i'll go with 30 , and that will be a good thing , i doubt it cost that much to make
I think it cost around 60 to 70 million? In the days of big blockbusters spending hundreds of millions of dollars, fist over foot, it's relatively minor, but I have a feeling it may actually underperform on opening weekend. I've been through this phase before, I actually thought LITW would have a 30 million weekend, and look where that actually ended up. So, I may be lowballing this a bit much, but I wouldn't be surprised if The Happening only made 20 or even less, even below tracking.
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  #1888  
Old 06-08-2008, 12:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lazy Boy View Post
I think it cost around 60 to 70 million? In the days of big blockbusters spending hundreds of millions of dollars, fist over foot, it's relatively minor, but I have a feeling it may actually underperform on opening weekend. I've been through this phase before, I actually thought LITW would have a 30 million weekend, and look where that actually ended up. So, I may be lowballing this a bit much, but I wouldn't be surprised if The Happening only made 20 or even less, even below tracking.
But look at the appeal for Lady in the Water. Don't you think the trailers and TV spots which have revealed next to nothing about The Happening while keeping it mysterious and intense will appeal a bit more to mainstream viewers?

I think the appeal for The Happening is much higher than that of Lady in the Water, which still opened to $18 million during a weak box-office time of the year. I'd say The Happening is making at least $25 million.
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  #1889  
Old 06-08-2008, 01:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
But look at the appeal for Lady in the Water. Don't you think the trailers and TV spots which have revealed next to nothing about The Happening while keeping it mysterious and intense will appeal a bit more to mainstream viewers?

I think the appeal for The Happening is much higher than that of Lady in the Water, which still opened to $18 million during a weak box-office time of the year. I'd say The Happening is making at least $25 million.
Maybe, and tying in Night with his more popular hits The Sixth Sense and Signs is the smart thing to do and should help -- but I'm just lowballing it to be on the safe side, not to set myself up for disappointment. It could very well do 25 million. I just think people have felt burned by his last couple of pictures that interest has waned, but the marketing by this is a little more effective. Either way, in the face of Hulk, whatever it opens, it could possibly be seen as a disappointment either way, based on its budget.

I could be surprised, though, hopefully. I want it to do well.

Last edited by Lazy Boy; 06-08-2008 at 01:35 PM..
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  #1890  
Old 06-08-2008, 03:46 PM
Don't ask me where i got the 30 mil figure from , must have been thinking about another film . It better do at least 30 mil opening weekend now .
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  #1891  
Old 06-08-2008, 04:02 PM
The Incredible Hulk: 60+ Million
The Happening[: 35 Million
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  #1892  
Old 06-08-2008, 05:39 PM
As of now tracking (which we all know it hit and miss) has Hulk at around $60 million and The Happening at $25 million, for what it's worth.
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  #1893  
Old 06-09-2008, 07:22 AM
I still think Hulk should do at least 70 mil , people are still on a comic book movie high because of Ironman , the fanboys have been convinced this will be better than lee's version , kids are going to eat it up , and it's a family friendly film ( Father's will no doubt want there kids to enjoy this new Hulk and it's opening Father's day weekend ) . And i wouldn't overlook the cross promotion with Stark making a cameo . There's some serious momentum behind this film .

Freak , i overestimate with the best of them , so i'm upping my prediction :

Hulk - 80 mil

Happening - a solid 32 mil ( it wouldn't surprise me if it barely made 20 mil though , i'm giving it the benefit of the doubt )

Which translates to

Hulk - 65 mil

Happening - 23 mil

Just kidding , i'm going with the higher numbers .
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  #1894  
Old 06-09-2008, 10:33 AM
The Hulk - 75 millon

The Happening - 30 millon
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  #1895  
Old 06-09-2008, 05:39 PM
The Incredible Hulk will open between 50 and 70 million. The Happening will open with less than 20 million. Kung Fu Panda will stay at #1 for the second weekend in a row.
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  #1896  
Old 06-09-2008, 05:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MidnightAngel View Post
The Incredible Hulk will open between 50 and 70 million. The Happening will open with less than 20 million. Kung Fu Panda will stay at #1 for the second weekend in a row.
With The Incredible Hulk making between 50 and 70 million, how exactly is Kung Fu Panda going to be #1? And I wouldn't be so sure about The Happening.
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  #1897  
Old 06-09-2008, 06:04 PM
Hulk - $45 million
The Happening - $15 million

Tracking doesn't mean much in these films' cases, they have a shitload of baggage. Hulk 1 fell 70% five years ago. Toxic.
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  #1898  
Old 06-09-2008, 06:10 PM
The Hulk's marketing has been great, and Lee's Hulk dropping 70% is insignificant. The first Fantastic Four dropped 60% after its opening weekend, but Silver Surfer opened even bigger than the first.

I think people are underestimating The Happening a bit at least. The marketing (regardless if we like it or not) has been great and will have mainstream audiences flocking to it. People love these apocalyptic thrillers.
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  #1899  
Old 06-09-2008, 08:45 PM
I don't really follow these things too well, but Hulk seems to be building momentum. Could be looking at $70 million plus.
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  #1900  
Old 06-09-2008, 09:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
The Hulk's marketing has been great, and Lee's Hulk dropping 70% is insignificant. The first Fantastic Four dropped 60% after its opening weekend, but Silver Surfer opened even bigger than the first.

I think people are underestimating The Happening a bit at least. The marketing (regardless if we like it or not) has been great and will have mainstream audiences flocking to it. People love these apocalyptic thrillers.
Fantastic Four dropped in the high 50s range two years later. Not even in the same level. A 70% drop for a superhero movie now is awful, five years ago it was toxic. People hated the original. Doesn't anyone remember the reception? Or the awful DVD sales?

I guess The Happening can break out, but the studio is so desperate in the marketing (R-RATED SHYMALAN WOOT). Shymalan's name went from huge draw to a warning in the span of two films. Lady In The Water had lots of ads too, but it opened to about 35% of The Village.
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  #1901  
Old 06-10-2008, 07:24 AM
Forgot about panda :

Hulk - 80 mil

Panda - 34.5

Happening - 32


Hulk isn't toxic , they have laboriously and effectively did everything they could to let people know this has nothing at all to do with the previous Hulk film incarnation .

I don't see the other film having a negative impact on IH , if it does , it will be a small percentage of people that haven't been paying attention to it's progress and the trailers . Even kids probably realize this isn't the same slow and plodding version we received the first time around . That's why not only will it make more opening weekend than the first film , but it will have better box office endurance . Once people realized how underwhelming the first film was , it dropped hard and fast , that won't happen this time .


50 milllion for Hulk is preposterous , this isn't FF , Hulk is a much more beloved figure in the marvel cannon , FF is a second tier offering , i'm saying that because i think some people are basing their predictions off of what the last film did and what the first FF did .

No way is it only making 45 mil either , that's seriously lowballing it . I think it can make close to 30 mil or a bit more opening day alone and have a decent jump on Saturday , it's guaranteed it will have a jump on that day .


I really don't know where some people are getting their predictions from , it doesn't make sense .

I think the Happening is being lowballed a bit also by some shmoes , but that one i can understand , to a degree , it's because of LIW , still 15 mil seems extremely low .


Allright , please shmoes , put the numbers on the table , what is it with this between 50 and 70 million predictions , just pick one number , what are you trying to do , cover the spread . Heck , i'll just say from 20 to 80 mil then , it's almost certain i'll be " right " with that guess . That spread is way too wide , 20 mil , just make up your mind and type the final number down
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  #1902  
Old 06-15-2008, 12:37 PM
1. Get Smart- $40 million
2. The Incredible Hulk- $25 million
3. The Love Guru- $23 million
4. Kung Fu Panda- $20 million
5. The Happening- $15 million
6. You Don't Mess with the Zohan- $8.5 million
7. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull- $8 million
8. Sex and the City- $5 million
9. Iron Man- $3.5 million
10. The Strangers- $2.25 million

Get Smart has been marketed well and should get family, teen and adult audiences in seats. The Incredible Hulk should drop more than 50%. The word of mouth may be better than Lee's Hulk (although they have nearly identical RT stats) but I just can't see it having strong holds. The Love Guru has been marketed well toward the mainstream crowd and should find a decent audience. Kung Fu Panda will continue to do well. The Happening will drop around 50%.
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  #1903  
Old 06-15-2008, 12:48 PM
I think Get Smart will be a surprise hit: $60-$70 million. I also think that The Love Guru is going to bomb like Speed Racer. Here's hoping The Incredible Hulk sticks around a while.
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  #1904  
Old 06-15-2008, 02:01 PM
I actually think The Love Guru will outperform Get Smart. I don't think Get Smart's ads make the movie look very funny at all. The same can be said for The Love Guru, but I think a comedy headlined by Mike Myers will get more people in theaters than one headlined by Steve Carell, who hasn't fared all that well in starring roles aside from 40 y/o Virgin. Dan in Real Life could be considred a modest hit and Evan Almighty made almost half as much as it cost. People loved the Austin Powers movies, with each one making more than the previous, and I think a lot of them will go to The Love Guru hoping for the next Austin Powers.
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  #1905  
Old 06-15-2008, 03:13 PM
Get Smart - 50 millon

The Love Guru - 20 millon
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  #1906  
Old 06-16-2008, 07:17 AM
Hulk underperform , Hulk sad , DD believe Hulk hype , tracking number right , Hulk make less than Ang Lee's version , DD still happy , Happening make good money , DD almost predict how much , Panda number close also , DD happy , Hulk sad .


Allright that was borderline pathetic .


Next weekend is a tough one for sure . There's two films that look like mindless slapstick , sight gag fests in Guru and Smart , i would say Smart looks just slightly more sophisticated , if you can call it that . And you have two popular comedians fronting each film . Vegas was a pratfall fest , and it did excellent , so i expect at least one of these to do some damage , Hulk not be first next weekend ( allright enough of that ) , it will drop hard , prob 60 percent , but i would still call it a success .

Smart and Guru may cancel each other out , but Smart has the ubiquitous nostalgia factor going for it , and that always helps . Panda should have a small drop once again , kids love those pretty colors if they are all cgi .


Get Smart - 45 mil

Guru - 34 mil

Hulk - 23.5

Panda - 21.5

Happening - 17.5
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  #1907  
Old 06-16-2008, 07:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dellamorte dellamore View Post
Hulk underperform , Hulk sad , DD believe Hulk hype , tracking number right , Hulk make less than Ang Lee's version , DD still happy , Happening make good money , DD almost predict how much , Panda number close also , DD happy , Hulk sad .
There was a lot of anticipation for the Ang Lee movie that left a lot of comic and movie fans a bit disappointed. It dropped big time after the first weekend. We'll see how this version does in the weeks to come.
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  #1908  
Old 06-16-2008, 07:39 AM
I'm being a bit silly , but i honestly thought it was going to make more opening weekend , looks like that Stark cameo didn't exactly make much difference .

You know what i don't get , if your going to cross promote , go all out and really blow people away . Why didn't they have Ironman make an appearance during the final showdown with Abomination , Marvel owns both , they can do whatever they want with the characters . It would have stunned people to see Ironman swoop in and assist Hulk in his fight , like that animation short on Marvel's website ( i think that's where i watched it ) .

If this makes about the same as Lee's version , then i'm not sure what the point was , i don't think it was vastly superior overall , but the action was way better , no doubt . It wasn't like the difference between B and R and BB . I don't think it will have good legs , but we'll see .


I still liked it , not as much as i thought i would , but it was entertaining , i just didn't see a huge difference between this one and Lee's version , concerning the entertainment value .
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  #1909  
Old 06-16-2008, 07:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dellamorte dellamore View Post
You know what i don't get , if your going to cross promote , go all out and really blow people away . Why didn't they have Ironman make an appearance during the final showdown with Abomination , Marvel owns both , they can do whatever they want with the characters . It would have stunned people to see Ironman swoop in and assist Hulk in his fight , like that animation short on Marvel's website ( i think that's where i watched it ) .
I think the cross promotions will happen eventually. I don't know much about the Avengers and how they get together, but from what I hear they all end up together eventually. Marvel is "testing the waters" I think, to see how the individual franchises work under their control.
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  #1910  
Old 06-22-2008, 12:05 PM
1. Wall-E- $80 million
2. Wanted- $28 million
3. Get Smart- $20 million
4. Kung Fu Panda- $13.5 million
5. The Incredible Hulk- $11 million
6. The Love Guru- $6.5 million
7. The Happening- $5.5 million
8. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull- $5 million
9. You Don't Mess with the Zohan- $3.75 million
10. Iron Man- $3.25 million

Wall-E looks to have way more appeal than the Pixar films of the past few years (although with the exception of Cars, they've all been fabulous), and has barely any competition. It should pull in nearly $80 million. Wanted has no adult competition and has been getting great reviews, so it should do quite well.
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  #1911  
Old 06-23-2008, 01:09 PM
Those predicts look pretty good Bourne. $75-80 million for WALL-E sounds about right, and I'd say $25 million for Wanted.
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  #1912  
Old 06-24-2008, 01:10 PM
Here are the predictions from comingsoon.net:

1. WALL•E (Pixar/Disney) - $71.3 million N/A

2. Wanted (Universal) - $39.5 million N/A

3. Get Smart (Warner Bros.) - $21.0 million -45%

4. Kung Fu Panda (DreamWorks Animation) - $11.3 million -48%

5. The Incredible Hulk (Marvel/Universal) - $10.3 million -54%

6. The Love Guru (Paramount) – $5.7 million -57%

7. The Happening (20th Century Fox) – 4.5 million -55%

8. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (Paramount) - $4.3 million -48%

9. Sex and the City (New Line) - $3.8 million -39%

10. You Don't Mess with the Zohan (Sony) - $3.7 million -48%
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  #1913  
Old 06-29-2008, 03:11 PM
Hancock - 95 millon(3 day)

115 - 6 day
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  #1914  
Old 06-29-2008, 03:54 PM
Hancock Wednesday, Thursday predictions:

Wednesday- $35 million
Thursday- $30 million
Total: $65 million

3-Day Weekend Predictions

1. Hancock- $80 million
2. Wall-E- $42 million
3. Wanted- $28 million
4. Get Smart- $12 million
5. Kit Kittredge: An American Girl- $10 million
6. Kung Fu Panda- $7.5 million
7. The Incredible Hulk- $5 million
8. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull- $3.25 million
9. The Love Guru- $3 million
10. The Happening- $2 million

Hancock should make around $150 million for the 5 day. Wall-E should have a very small drop. Wanted should drop a bit less than 50%.

BTW, Hancock opens on Tuesday at my theatre, I thought it opened on Wednesday? This may change my predictions.

Last edited by Bourne101; 06-29-2008 at 04:42 PM..
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  #1915  
Old 06-30-2008, 01:38 AM
For some reason, they are doing screenings on Tuesday Night. So, that's why I did six days instead of 5.
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  #1916  
Old 07-06-2008, 12:09 PM
3-Day Weekend Predictions

1. Hancock- $30 million
2. Hellboy II: The Golden Army- $28 million
3. Journey to the Center of the Earth 3D- $25 million
4. Wall-E- $20 million
5. Meet Dave- $12 million
6. Wanted- $11 million
7. Get Smart- $6.5 million
8. Kung Fu Panda- $5 million
9. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull- $3 million
10. The Incredible Hulk- $2.75 million

Hancock should drop a bit more than 50%. Hellboy II has had plenty of marketing, and should open a bit better than the first. Journey to the Center of the Earth has had little to no marketing and I haven't seen the tracking for it, so I may update that number in the near future. Wall-E should have a small drop. Again, I don't have tracking for Meet Dave and it has had little to no marketing, so that's just a rough guess. Wanted should have around a 50% drop.
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  #1917  
Old 07-06-2008, 03:43 PM
Hellboy 2 - 35 millon
Meet Dave - 8 million
Journey To The Center Of The Earth - 15 million.
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  #1918  
Old 07-06-2008, 03:52 PM
I think Meet Dave is going to bomb like Speed Racer and The Love Guru. On the other hand, I think Journey to the Center of the Earth will do fine seeing as it's a family flick.

Hellboy 2 will either finish 1 or 2 . . . it'll try to beat Hancock.
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  #1919  
Old 07-06-2008, 04:20 PM
I'm hoping Hellboy II will pull ahead of Hancock for #1, but you never know. Since it's a Will Smith flick, it may dominate until TDK gets here.
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  #1920  
Old 07-08-2008, 09:14 PM
How do you guys think Step Brothers is going to do? I think the marketing has been very good and I think it will do quite well.
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