#161  
Old 03-18-2004, 07:32 PM
1) Dawn of the Dead-$22.4; Week 1
2) The Passion of the Christ-$19.9; -38.1%; Week 2
3) Taking Lives-$11.8; Week 1
4) Starsky and Hutch-$10.7; -33%; Week 3
5) Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind-$9.8; Week 1
6) Secret Window-$9.5; -48%; Week 2
7) Hidalgo-$8.1; -32%; Week 3
8) Agent Cody Banks 2: Destination London-$4.9; -39%; Week 2
9) 50 First Dates-$3.4; -37.5%; Week 6
10) Twisted-$1.5; -51.1%; Week 4
11) The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King-$1.5; -26.4%; Week 14
12) Confessions of a Teenage Drama Queen-$1.5; -40.8%; Week 5
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  #162  
Old 03-18-2004, 10:40 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by Jon Lyrik

5) Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind-$9.8; Week 1
I hoped it would make it to the number 1 spot.
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  #163  
Old 03-19-2004, 09:54 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by Sigur509
I hoped it would make it to the number 1 spot.
With only 1,300+ theaters, it will never happen.
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  #164  
Old 03-19-2004, 01:43 PM
It's going to be close between Dawn and Passion for the #1 spot, but I'm guessing:

1. The Passion of the Christ - $27 million
2. Dawn of the Dead - $25 million
3. Taking Lives - $17 million
4. Starsky & Hutch - $13 million
5. Secret Window - $11 million
6. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind - $9 million
7. Hidalgo - $7 million
8. Agent Cody Banks 2: Destination London - $4 million
9. 50 First Dates - $2 million
10. Twisted- $2 million

POTC will pass the $300 million mark next weekend, I can assure you.
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  #165  
Old 03-19-2004, 02:04 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by zeppelin
It's going to be close between Dawn and Passion for the #1 spot, but I'm guessing:

1. The Passion of the Christ - $27 million
2. Dawn of the Dead - $25 million
3. Taking Lives - $17 million
4. Starsky & Hutch - $13 million
5. Secret Window - $11 million
6. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind - $9 million
7. Hidalgo - $7 million
8. Agent Cody Banks 2: Destination London - $4 million
9. 50 First Dates - $2 million
10. Twisted- $2 million

POTC will pass the $300 million mark next weekend, I can assure you.
Hehe, I thought that ment Pirates Of The Carrabian for a second.
I do think Dawn will take home the 1 sopt this weekend. POTC has had it's glory but it's time to retire the 1 spot.
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  #166  
Old 03-19-2004, 02:19 PM
1. Dawn Of The Dead: 26 million
2. The Passion Of The christ: 20 million
3. Taking Lives: 13.6 million
4. Secret Window 12.5 millon
5. Starky & Hutch: 11 million
6. Hidalgo: 7.1 million
7. Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind: 6.8 million
8. Agent Cody Banks 2: 4.6 million
9. 50 First Dates: 3.9 million
10. Twisted 2.7 million
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  #167  
Old 03-20-2004, 05:37 AM
The Passion Of The Christ - $25 Million
Dawn Of The Dead - $19 Million
Taking Lives - $10 Million
Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind - $6 Million
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  #168  
Old 03-20-2004, 11:37 AM
Fridays Numbers

DAWN OF THE DEAD

$11,400,000

2 THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST

$4,920,000

3 TAKING LIVES

$4,040,000

4 STARSKY AND HUTCH

$3,302,000

5 SECRET WINDOW

$3,184,000

6 ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND

$2,590,000

7 HIDALGO

$2,381,000

8 AGENT CODY BANKS 2: DESTINATION LONDON
$1,677,000

9 50 FIRST DATES

$1,330,000

10 CONFESSIONS OF A TEENAGE DRAMA QUEEN

$460,000
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  #169  
Old 03-20-2004, 03:33 PM
Looks like some people may have underestimated the earning power of the undead . Now , it should be a done deal , Romero gets to make his swan song , Twilight of the Dead . The only thing that will hang it up now is the insistence by the financiers on steroidal zombies , instead of the shambling ones .

Imagine George and Tom teaming up again , the thought of that gets me all giddy .
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  #170  
Old 03-20-2004, 04:43 PM
Good debuts for all openers this weekend. Taking Lives is a little low but not too bad. I am so happy to see Dawn of the Dead on top with such a huge command over the top ten.
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  #171  
Old 03-20-2004, 04:49 PM
Isn't it pretty rare to have three R-rated wide releases opening on the same weekend? All three appear to have found an audience, but it seems like a risky move that studios would want to avoid in most cases.
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  #172  
Old 03-20-2004, 04:53 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by MadsenOMC
Isn't it pretty rare to have three R-rated wide releases opening on the same weekend? All three appear to have found an audience, but it seems like a risky move that studios would want to avoid in most cases.
woah i didnt even pick up on that. It does seem kinda out of the norm. Nice observation.
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  #173  
Old 03-20-2004, 11:40 PM
Here are the estimated theater counts for the weekend of March 26th:

Scooby-Doo 2: Monsters Unleashed - 3000+ theaters
The Ladykillers - 1500 theaters
Jersey Girl - 1350+ theaters
Never Die Alone - 1200 theaters
Ned Kelly - 22 theaters
Dogville - 9 theaters (LA, NYC)

-----------------

Here are my early predictions for the new releases:

SCOOBY-DOO 2: MONSTERS UNLEASHED - This, being a sequel, already has a built-in audience, and in my opinion it looks better than the first. Even though the first was panned by critics, it actually was a huge success and had a great multiplier of around 3.1. I believe that this sequel won't be as successful, but should easily slide past $100 million due to spring break and the built-in child audience. I predict a $38 million opening as of now, but it could go up as the week progresses.

THE LADYKILLERS - I am very surprised that this is being released in so few theaters. It will definetely make it harder for it to be successful. I predict an opening of around $10 million.

JERSEY GIRL - The advertising campaign has been very promising, and it looks to revitalize Ben Affleck's career. Plus, it already has some very promising buzz building about it. It should get $8 million for opening weekend, but as it expands it should be able to make more. I think it was wise of the studio to market it as a family film. It will probably make it a bigger success.

NEVER DIE ALONE - No pun intended, this will probably die alone at the box office. There has been minimal advertising, and even though there is positive buzz, I can't see this doing that well. I predict an opening of about $4 million as of now.

DOGVILLE and NED KELLY should do well in limited release. I still think NED KELLY should have gone wide. It could have made some money off of Orlando Bloom and Naomi Watts. It will probably make a profit after it is released on video.
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  #174  
Old 03-21-2004, 12:26 AM
If there were no restrictions on the sale of tickets in relation too the MPAA rating then i would say Dawn would prob be number 1 next weekend . But , i can see some young blokes buying tickets to anything pg 13 and going into Dawn instead .

Scooby Doo looks even more dreadful than the first , i'm just not sure how many people are still interested in a horrible CGI fest that panders to children .


Ladykillers is a Coen bro film , they usually never catch on with the mainstream , even if an A list star is in it .


Jersey Girl looks like an estrogen fest made by a director looking to enamor himself with the female demographic .


Never say never Again , is Sean Connery in this one ?



Dogville , well Lars Von Trier is a genius ( he wrote and directed the original Kingdom that has been turned into a silly miniseries on ABC here in the states ) , but his films rarely do too much , outside of Europe . Couple of diehards will go see it but that's it .



Ned and Stacey , don't know about that one , so i can't really comment on it .



I will make some actual predictions at a later date , right now it's a bit too early , since this weekend isn't even over yet .
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  #175  
Old 03-21-2004, 12:02 PM
YOU WILL ALL BOW DOWN TO MY PREDICTIONS!

Dawn of the dead - (22.4 / 27.30) -- Accuracy: 82.05%
The Passion of the Christ - (19.9 / 19.20) -- Accuracy: 96.35%
Taking Lives - (11.8 / 11.40) -- Accuracy: 96.49%
Starsky & Hutch - (10.7 / 10.70) -- Accuracy: 100.00%
Secret Window - (9.5 / 9.60) -- Accuracy: 98.96%
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind - (9.8 / 8.60) -- Accuracy: 86.05%
Hidalgo - (8.1 / 8.50) -- Accuracy: 95.29%
Agent cody banks 2 - (4.9 / 6.00) -- Accuracy: 81.67%
50 First Dates - (3.4 / 4.30) -- Accuracy: 79.07%
Confessions of a Teenage Drama Queen - (1.5 / 1.5) -- Accuracy: 100.00%
Twisted - (1.5 / 1.3) -- Accuracy: 84.62%
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King - (1.5 / 1.30) -- Accuracy: 84.62%

OVERALL ESTIMATE ACCURACY: 90.43%

New Release: 88.2%
Still in Theater: 91.18%
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  #176  
Old 03-21-2004, 12:30 PM
Scooby-Doo 2: Monsters Unleashed-$26.3 million
-This will pull a Tomb Raider 2 or a Pokemon 2000 on our asses. Anybody like the first? Anyone? The first one fell pretty damn hard for a kid's film after it's gigantic opening, so even the kids won't be that interested. And March isn't summer. The most I see are Cat in the Hat-style numbers, but for now I see the total being about $69 million.

The Ladykillers-$18.7 million
-Hanks will be the main draw for this one, and with the modest amount of theaters I think this will be a real WOM-type film for Disney. A Road to Perdition-style PTA will be in store. Unlike RTP, it won't have summer weekdays, but it should still be a hit. $80 million total, I guess.

Jersey Girl-$9 million
-Pretty tepid. The Gigli Effect will hurt it a bit as well, but should still do OK.

Never Die Alone-$7.2 million
-Urban movies always do well.

Last edited by Jon Lyrik; 03-21-2004 at 02:14 PM..
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  #177  
Old 03-21-2004, 12:36 PM
Scooby-Doo 2: Monsters Unleashed- $32 million
The Ladykillers- $12 million
Jersey Girl- $8 million
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  #178  
Old 03-21-2004, 12:59 PM
1) Scooby Doo 2: Monsters Unleashed-$26.3 million; Week 1
2) The Ladykillers-$18.7 million; Week 1
3) Dawn of the Dead-$12.6 million; -54%; Week
4) The Passion of the Christ-$11.7 million; -38.8%; Week 5
5) Jersey Girl-$8.4 million; Week 1
6) Never Die Alone-$7.2 million; Week 1
7) Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind-$6.7 million; -21.3%; Week 2
8) Starsky and Hutch-$6.6 million; -38.2%; Week 4
9) Hidalgo-$5.8 million; -32.5%; Week 4
10) Taking Lives-$5.6 million; -51%; Week 2
11) Secret Window-$5.5 million; -42.4%; Week 3
12) Agent Cody Banks 2: Destination London-$4.2 million; -29.3%; Week 3

Last edited by Jon Lyrik; 03-21-2004 at 02:13 PM..
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  #179  
Old 03-21-2004, 02:56 PM
I'm sorry, but 3.1 is not a great multiplier. Completely average for a summer movie. It is standard. It isn't even good, much less great. I sense a much weaker opening for Scooby Doo 2, and a smaller total. Kids will be in school so weekday business won't be very good.
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  #180  
Old 03-21-2004, 03:31 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by dellamorte dellamore
If there were no restrictions on the sale of tickets in relation too the MPAA rating then i would say Dawn would prob be number 1 next weekend . But , i can see some young blokes buying tickets to anything pg 13 and going into Dawn instead .

They could of easily done that this weekend with The Secret Window.
Most movies this week look like they may suffer due to low theater counts!
I wouldn't be surprised is Scooby crashed in at number 2 or 3.
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  #181  
Old 03-21-2004, 04:16 PM
Right now, I'm thinkin Scooby 2 is gunna open to no less than 35 million, most likely 39-42 million. The first one was a mega hit. So, this one will have a big openning, even if it is substantially (20 million or so) less than the first. I think an total of 100 million is in store.

The Ladykillers might b able to top 20 Million, I'd say in the 16.5-20 million range.

Dawn of the Dead - 15 Million
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  #182  
Old 03-21-2004, 04:44 PM
Scooby-Doo 2: Monsters Unleashed - $33 M
The Ladykillers - $17 M
Jersey Girl - $10 M
Never Die Alone - $6 M
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  #183  
Old 03-21-2004, 04:56 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by MadsenOMC
I'm sorry, but 3.1 is not a great multiplier. Completely average for a summer movie. It is standard. It isn't even good, much less great. I sense a much weaker opening for Scooby Doo 2, and a smaller total. Kids will be in school so weekday business won't be very good.
What he said.

The original had awful legs for a family film (the actual multiplier was under 3, more like 2.8), so I doubt even the kids will be drawn to this in such large doses. It will be a Pokemon 2000/Tomb Raider 2-type effect.
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  #184  
Old 03-21-2004, 05:05 PM
You guys have to keep in mind that SCOOBY-DOO 2, whether everyone on these boards liked it or not, has a built-in audience of children. They haven't had a whole lot to see lately, with most steering clear of AGENT CODY BANKS 2, and kids in general liked the first movie. This is why it cannot fail. POKEMON 2000 suffered because the movie was released in a time when the popularity of the show and the merchandise was spiraling downward, and TOMB RAIDER 2 had good legs despite being a disappointment. I really cannot see SCOOBY-DOO 2 being that big of a failure.
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  #185  
Old 03-21-2004, 05:12 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by thompsoncory
You guys have to keep in mind that SCOOBY-DOO 2, whether everyone on these boards liked it or not, has a built-in audience of children. They haven't had a whole lot to see lately, with most steering clear of AGENT CODY BANKS 2, and kids in general liked the first movie. This is why it cannot fail. POKEMON 2000 suffered because the movie was released in a time when the popularity of the show and the merchandise was spiraling downward, and TOMB RAIDER 2 had good legs despite being a disappointment. I really cannot see SCOOBY-DOO 2 being that big of a failure.
It won't fail. None of us are saying that, but I do think it will take a gigantic nose-dive from the first. When a family film in June can't have good legs, it should be proof enough that interest is about halved for this. Besides, March isn't as big a month, and hype is down from the first. I honestly don't see this opening higher than, say, Cat in the Hat.
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  #186  
Old 03-21-2004, 05:41 PM
Thompsoncory, I don't mean to be rude, but you are really mistaken with some of your comments on a movie's legs at the box office. Scooby Doo did not have good legs. Doing 3 times your opening for a summer movie is average and nothing more. Might even be considered poor for a family movie. Same goes for Tomb Raider 2. It did not have good legs. It made exactly 3 times it's opening weekend take. Opened to $21.7 million and finished with $65 million. That is not good legs for a summer movie, or really any more for that matter. It is average at best. And Scooby Doo 2 will not make as much as the first. The March release date pretty much guarantees that, with kids still in school and everything. Word of mouth would have to be glowing, and it won't be.
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  #187  
Old 03-21-2004, 05:52 PM
I think a lot of you are over-estimating Scooby-Doo 2. Sure, a lot of people saw the first one, but how many people actually liked it? Plus, the advertising campaign isn't nearly as good this time. I still think it'll be able to snatch the #1 spot, but I highly doubt it will be anything over $25 million, if it even gets that.

1. Scooby-Doo 2: Monsters Unleashed- $22 million
2. The Ladykillers- $18 million
3. Dawn of the Dead- $13 million
4. The Passion of the Christ- $11 million
5. Jersey Girl- $9 million
6. Starsky & Hutch- $7 million
7. Taking Lives- $6 million
8. Secret Window- $5 million
9. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind- $5 million
10. Never Die Alone- $4 million
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  #188  
Old 03-21-2004, 05:54 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by zeppelin
I think a lot of you are over-estimating Scooby-Doo 2. Sure, a lot of people saw the first one, but how many people actually liked it? Plus, the advertising campaign isn't nearly as good this time. I still think it'll be able to snatch the #1 spot, but I highly doubt it will be anything over $25 million, if it even gets that.

1. Scooby-Doo 2: Monsters Unleashed- $22 million
2. The Ladykillers- $18 million
3. Dawn of the Dead- $13 million
4. The Passion of the Christ- $11 million
5. Jersey Girl- $9 million
6. Starsky & Hutch- $7 million
7. Taking Lives- $6 million
8. Secret Window- $5 million
9. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind- $5 million
10. Never Die Alone- $4 million
And I thought *I* was being pessimistic.

Never Die Alone will definitely open OK at least. It's an urban film, they always do well.
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  #189  
Old 03-21-2004, 06:39 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by MadsenOMC
Thompsoncory, I don't mean to be rude, but you are really mistaken with some of your comments on a movie's legs at the box office. Scooby Doo did not have good legs. Doing 3 times your opening for a summer movie is average and nothing more. Might even be considered poor for a family movie. Same goes for Tomb Raider 2. It did not have good legs. It made exactly 3 times it's opening weekend take. Opened to $21.7 million and finished with $65 million. That is not good legs for a summer movie, or really any more for that matter. It is average at best. And Scooby Doo 2 will not make as much as the first. The March release date pretty much guarantees that, with kids still in school and everything. Word of mouth would have to be glowing, and it won't be.
I don't think it will make as much as the first film, but it should cross $100 million without any trouble. Right now I predict a final take of $120 million at the absolute most and $100 million at the very least.
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  #190  
Old 03-21-2004, 08:16 PM
Scooby Doo had a huge opening and shitty legs...I liked the film on a guilty pleasure basis mainly because I am biased being such a hug Scooby Doo fan....anywho whereas I dont think Scooby Doo 2 will match the original, I do think however that with a drought of kid flicks at the Box Office (and those in release COATDQ, Cody Banks 2 didnt do well) it should perform very well and have a big debut, not matching the original but still huge for the month of March.

Ladykillers should open similar to RTP and The Green Mile but have huge legs I think......will be the Coens biggest film ever no doubt.

Jersey Girl will do decent I think....

Ideal's Early Predix:

1. Scooby Doo 2 $ 38 million
2. The Ladykillers $ 19 million
3. Dawn Of The Dead $ 15 million
4. The Passion Of The Christ $ 14 million
5. Jersey Girl $ 9 million
6. Never Die Alone $ 8 million
6. Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind $ 7.5 million
7. Starsky and Hutch $ 6.9 million
8. Taking Lives $ 6.8 million
9. Hidalgo $ 6.0 million
10. Secret Window $ 5.4 million
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  #191  
Old 03-22-2004, 04:31 PM
Dawn of the Dead - (22.4 / 26.70) -- Accuracy: 83.90%
The Passion of the Christ - (19.9 / 19.40) -- Accuracy: 97.42%
Taking lives - (10.8 / 11.50) -- Accuracy: 93.91%
Starsky & Hutch - (10.7 / 10.40) -- Accuracy: 97.12%
Secret window - (9.6 / 9.30) -- Accuracy: 96.77%
Hidalgo - (8.1 / 8.40) -- Accuracy: 96.43%
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind - (9.8 / 8.20) -- Accuracy: 80.49%
Agent cody banks 2 - (4.9 / 6.00) -- Accuracy: 81.67%
50 First Dates - (3.4 / 4.20) -- Accuracy: 80.95%
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King - (1.5 / 1.40) -- Accuracy: 92.86%
Confessions of a Teenage Drama Queen - (1.5 / 1.6) -- Accuracy: 93.75%
Twisted - (1.5 / 1.3) -- Accuracy: 84.62%

OVERALL ESTIMATE ACCURACY: 89.99%

New Release: 86.1%
Still in Theater: 91.29%

Fantastic. My best Derby in weeks.
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  #192  
Old 03-22-2004, 06:14 PM
My Early Prediction:

1. Dawn Of The Dead // $17 million
2. Scooby-Doo 2: Monsters Unleashed // $15 million
3. The Passion Of The Christ // $12 million
4. The Ladykillers // $11 million
5. Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind // $10 million
6. Starsky & Hutch // $9 million
7. Jersey Girl // $7 million
8. Taking Lives // $5 million
9. Secret Window // $4 million
10. Hidalgo // $3 million

I'm not sure if Never Die Alone will crack the top ten. . .
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  #193  
Old 03-22-2004, 06:19 PM
You think Eternal Sunshine will increase its take from last weekend? Is it expanding? I hope you're right. Never Die Alone will do well. You can't underestimate the "urban" audience. They sure came out for Dawn of the Dead. I think boxofficeguru said that something like 50% of the audience was non-white. They'll be suppporting DMX.
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  #194  
Old 03-22-2004, 06:30 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by MadsenOMC
You think Eternal Sunshine will increase its take from last weekend? Is it expanding? I hope you're right. Never Die Alone will do well. You can't underestimate the "urban" audience. They sure came out for Dawn of the Dead. I think boxofficeguru said that something like 50% of the audience was non-white. They'll be suppporting DMX.
I'm predicting $6.9 million for Never Die Alone right now, which is pretty good. I know one guy in urban Portland who said a lot of people over there are looking forward to it, so considering it's theater count it's a reasonable prediction.

I'm predicting about a 20% drop for Eternal Sunshine, lower if it gets a 300+ theater count boost (which somehow I doubt).

Like I said, Scooby Doo 2 won't flop, but it'll make way less than the original. Less hype, less marketing, lesser release date.
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  #195  
Old 03-24-2004, 09:31 AM
1. SD2- $23 Million
2. DOTD- $15.3 Million
3. Passion- $11.7 Million
4. Ladykillers- $10 Million
- Never Die Alone- $5.2 Million
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  #196  
Old 03-24-2004, 10:55 PM
Scooby Doo 2 - 35 million
Jersey Girl - 10 million
Never Die Alone - 5 million
The Ladykillers - 13 million
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  #197  
Old 03-25-2004, 09:50 AM
Scooby Doo 2 - 37 Million
The Ladykillers - 12 Million
Jersey Girl - 9 Million (I'm hoping for more)
Never Die Alone - 4 Million
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  #198  
Old 03-25-2004, 12:11 PM
1.Scooby Doo 2 - $30.6 million
2. Dawn Of The Dead - $19.7 million
3. Passion Of The Christ - $12 million
4. Taking Lives - $8.9 million
5. Starsky & Hutch - $8.2 million
6. Ladykillers - $6.7 million
7. Hidalgo - $6.1 million
8. Jersey Girl - $5.9 million - The most I can see this film making is $7 million since it's only in 1300+ theatres
9. Secret Window - $5.5 million
10. Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind - $5.1 million


Never Die Alone $3.8 million
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  #199  
Old 03-25-2004, 05:38 PM
1) Scooby-Doo 2: Monsters Unleashed-$25.4 million; Week 1
2) The Ladykillers-$16.2 million
3) Dawn of the Dead-$13.1 million; -51%; Week 2
4) The Passion of the Christ-$11.9 million; -38.6%; Week 5
5) Jersey Girl-$7.5 million; Week 1
6) Starsky and Hutch-$6.9 million; -34.1%; Week 4
7) Never Die Alone-$6.8 million
8) Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind-$6.1 million; -25.3%; Week 2
9) Taking Lives-$6 million; -47.4%; Week 2
10) Hidalgo-$5.6 million; -33%; Week 4
11) Secret Window-$5.2 million; -44.2%; Week 3
12) Agent Cody Banks 2: Destination London-$4.2 million; -30.4%; Week 3
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  #200  
Old 03-26-2004, 10:16 PM
Scooby-Doo 2: Monsters Unleashed - $25 Million
The Ladykillers - $14 Million
Jersey Girl - $7 Million
Never Die Alone - $4 Million
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