#2161  
Old 08-24-2009, 03:15 PM
Those are some solid looking predictions FireCaptain4.
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  #2162  
Old 08-24-2009, 05:59 PM
I am just really hoping Halloween and TFD really fail and IB holds up really well, because it held up pretty good over the 3 days. That has not been the trend over the last few weeks. Many movies lately have had big Fri and draw less and less by Sat and Sun. H2 and THD are going after the same market.

1. Inglourious Basterds $20
2. Halloween II $15
3. The Final Destination $11
4. District 9 $8
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  #2163  
Old 08-25-2009, 08:47 AM
We finally got another couple of players, it's been awhile, you'll see, it becomes addicting.

I'm not going by tracking numbers, it's not an exact science, seems like more conjecture than solid evidence, sometimes you just have to imagine and crunch some Psa numbers to get an idea of how you think a film might perform. That's what i do most of the time, sometimes i'm way off, sometimes i hit the number almost exactly.

I can almost guarantee, IB is frontloaded, only because of this weekend's offerings, if it wasn't for that fact, i could easily see it taking the weekend again( there is a remote possibility it still could), but H2 is a love/hate type of affair. Some people loathe Zom and what he has done with the franchise but are still curious enough to see what he does with his followup and some people loved the first and can't wait for the sequel.

FD doesn't garner that type of reaction, in this instance such a controversial and divisive director(QT illicits this reaction also but he had his big weekend already)will work in a film's favor, that's why i genuinely feel H2 takes the weekend. Divisive director plus a previously successful film plus an iconic horror character equals number one for the weekend .

I'm sticking with those numbers. If i'm right, i fully expect someone to send some choccy chip cookies to my humble abode


I do have another idea for this thread, Bourne, i think you should post the average of all tracking numbers for the top ten, then post your predictions, then we have a gage as to how accurate those numbers are on a consistent basis.
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  #2164  
Old 08-25-2009, 10:09 AM
Actual tracking numbers are never really released, and often I can't even find tracking. I just search around and occasionally I'll find awareness and interest percentages from different ages and genders, which sort of give you an idea of how well it will do. I came across some tracking for Halloween II a few days ago. The awareness was fairly low and interest was non-existent for females and for males it was just average. Tracking doesn't actually give you predicted numbers, but rather just gives you some statistics that help you predict the sort of ballpark a film will open in. Based on the tracking for Halloween II, it could do terribly, it could do great, it could do OK. But even if male awareness and interest is high, there is also FD and IB to consider there, whose male awareness and interest are very high.

I'm not saying you're wrong about Halloween II having a great #1 opening weekend, but there really isn't any signs that it is going to do so, and if it does take #1 I think it will be a relatively slow weekend at the box-office. The Halloween remake had a solid opening weekend, but fell pretty fast (which could be just the result of a horror movie falling fast after opening weekend, or it could be the result of poor word of mouth). If it was poor word of mouth, expect Halloween II to have a mediocre opening. If it was just a case of being front loaded, expect Halloween II to open somewhere in the 20s.

Another thing to consider is that most kids are heading back to college this weekend, which is bad for business (though it may not be, as we all know Halloween had a solid opening a few years ago during the same weekend). This actually may end up benefiting IB, because something like 75% of IB's audience last weekend were over 25 years of age, so the whole college thing shouldn't really be a problem. FD and Halloween on the other hand are more geared toward the 17-21 year old crowd, which are those heading back to college. But like I said, this may not be a factor whatsoever.

Last edited by Bourne101; 08-25-2009 at 10:12 AM..
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  #2165  
Old 08-28-2009, 03:54 PM
I think the Weinsteins are retarded. Think about it, they are hurting financially, and so, they release their big movie, then the next week release their other big movie? Does this make any sense?

As for who will be number 1, it could go anyway. If this were Halloween opening and not TFD, I would say that would win the box office, or vice versa. I do think one of those two movies will open number 1 because I believe IB will take a good size hit, and end up with around $12-$15 million.

Very interesting weekend at the box office.
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  #2166  
Old 08-30-2009, 04:04 PM
Predictions for the 3-Day Weekend of September 4th-6th

1. Gamer- $16 million
2. Inglourious Basterds- $13 million
3. The Final Destination- $12 million
4. All About Steve- $10 million
5. District 9- $6.25 million
6. Julie & Julia- $6 million
7. Halloween II- $5.5 million
8. G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra- $5 million
9. The Time Traveler's Wife- $4.75 million
10. Extract- $4.5 million

Predictions for the 4-Day Labor Day Weekend of September 4th-7th

1. Gamer- $19.5 million
2. Inglourious Basterds- $16.25 million
3. The Final Destination- $15 million
4. All About Steve- $12.5 million
5. District 9- $8.25 million
6. Julie & Julia- $8 million
7. Halloween II- $7.25 million
8. G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra- $6.75 million
9. The Time Traveler's Wife- $6.25 million
10. Extract- $5.75 million

Gamer should take the top spot, but it will be a slow weekend at the movies. I would be quite surprised if it made much more than $16 million for the 3-day. Inglourious Basterds should continue to hold on strong. The Final Destination should have a pretty steep drop, although the 3D aspect and the fact that previous entries in the franchise have had decent second weekends may help it. All About Steve could end up doing a bit better than I'm predicting, but it's only in 2000 theatres and hasn't had a ton of marketing. District 9 should have another strong hold, as should Julie & Julia. Halloween II is going to drop hard. G.I. Joe should have another decent hold, as should The Time Traveler's Wife. Extract is only opening in 1600 theatres, so I don't expect it will do all that well.

Last edited by Bourne101; 08-30-2009 at 04:17 PM..
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  #2167  
Old 08-31-2009, 12:57 PM
Yeah, i don't see anything breaking 20 mil for the weekend, but there is always a possibility. If Gamer was in more theaters i would say it could hit the mid 20s, but it's a mid level release. All about Steve, don't know, Bollock's last was a big hit and the guy from the Hangover is in this, we'll see how much of an effect those two have.

I wouldn't discount the chick flick factor, Gamer is obviously going for the pimple faced vidgame crowd, and AAS is trying to appeal to the female contingent exclusively.

Have to think about this a little more.
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  #2168  
Old 08-31-2009, 01:02 PM
Yeah, All About Steve could definitely end up doing decently, but the lack of marketing and pathetic theatre count aren't really working in its favor. I can see it doing well, but for the moment I'm going to stick with my gut and say it will put up mediocre numbers.
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  #2169  
Old 08-31-2009, 01:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
Yeah, All About Steve could definitely end up doing decently, but the lack of marketing and pathetic theatre count aren't really working in its favor. I can see it doing well, but for the moment I'm going to stick with my gut and say it will put up mediocre numbers.
Where is the Jason Statham movie? He owns Labor Day.

I agree with you on All About Steve. The movie looks beyond bad, but Sandra Bullock movies do decently. Cooper as the male lead does hurt either.

All About Steve #1 at $24
Gerard Butler needs to fire his agent.
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  #2170  
Old 09-01-2009, 09:48 PM
"You know when I'm down to just my socks, it's buisness time!" Sorry, I've got Flight of the Conchords playing on my laptop and thought I'd share that.

I'm going to pull an almighty attempt to follow Bourne on this one. The four day weekend is playing Jedi mind tricks on me.

September 4th-6th

1. Gamer- $19 million
2. The Final Destination- $13 million
3. Inglorious Basterds- $10.5 million
4. All About Steve- $9 million
5. District 9- $6.5 million
6. Julie & Julia- $6 million
7. Extract- $5.5 million
8. Halloween II- $4.5 million
9. G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra- $4 million
10. The Time Traveler's Wife- $3 million

September 4th-7th

1. Gamer- $22 million
2. The Final Destination- $16 million
3. Inglorious Basterds- $13 million
4. All About Steve- $12 million
5. District 9- $7.5 million
6. Julie & Julia- $7 million
7. Extract- $6.75 million
8. Halloween II- $5.5 million
9. G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra- $5 million
10. The Time Traveler's Wife- $4.75 million

I agree with Bourne, Gamer will take the week though I think it'll have slightly higher numbers (mainly going by people's reactions last week, they may be in a genre mood-- then again, they could have already had their R rated violence fix... who knows). I might be lowballing Halloween II a bit as a result of my distaste for it. I also might be lowballing Basterds also, but the very opposite reason and I keep doubting its performance. I'm hoping Extract does really well despite it's theater count (I'm probably going far out here with my numbers, I'm just crossing my fingers).
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  #2171  
Old 09-07-2009, 05:34 PM
Predictions for the Weekend of September 11th-13th

1. I Can Do Bad All By Myself- $26 million
2. 9- $12 million
3. Sorority Row- $10 million
4. Whiteout- $8 million
5. Inglourious Basterds- $7.75 million
6. The Final Destination- $6.25 million
7. All About Steve- $5.75 million
8. District 9- $5 million
9. Julie & Julia- $4.25 million
10. Gamer- $4 million

Perry's film should take the weekend. I don't care if there hasn't been a single commercial, the black community LOVES Tyler Perry's films and they always do well. 9's lousy theatre count and vague target audience are going against it big time. It may make a bit more, but I do not see it taking the top spot. Sorority Row should do OK, though it could possibly do better. Whiteout has the highest theatre count out of the new bunch, but I can't see it doing all that well.
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  #2172  
Old 09-10-2009, 06:57 PM
I would personally love for SR to take the weekend, it looks like stupid-good time, IMO. But yeah Tyler Perry's going to come out on top. They should've diversified the girls in SR a bit more.
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  #2173  
Old 09-12-2009, 12:38 AM
I'm going with SR taking the weekend with 20 mil.
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  #2174  
Old 09-13-2009, 03:22 PM
Predictions for the Weekend of September 18th-20th

1. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs- $28 million
2. The Informant!- $16 million
3. Jennifer's Body- $12 million
4. I Can Do Bad All By Myself- $9.5 million
5. Love Happens- $8 million
6. 9- $6.25 million
7. Inglourious Basterds- $4 million
8. All About Steve- $3.25 million
9. Sorority Row- $2.5 million
10. The Final Destination- $2.25 million

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs should take the weekend. There hasn't been a popular kids film in a while. The Informant! should take the #2 spot with a mid-teens opening, though it could be higher or lower. Jennifer's Body could end up taking the #2 spot as well, but I have a feeling it won't do all that well. The crap reviews certainly aren't going to help it. I Can Do Bad will do the usual big Perry 2nd weekend drop. Love Happens has a low theatre count, so I don't see it doing all that well. 9 should drop under 50%. Inglourious Basterds should have another strong hold. All About Steve should drop around 45%. Sorority Row will have the usual 2nd weekend horror drop. The Final Destination will be losing a lot of 3D screens, so look for it to have another drop over 50%.
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  #2175  
Old 09-20-2009, 02:46 PM
Predictions for the Weekend of September 25th-27th

1. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs- $18 million
2. Surrogates- $15 million
3. Fame- $12 million
4. The Informant!- $7 million
5. Pandorum- $6 million
6. Love Happens- $5.25 million
7. I Can Do Bad All By Myself- $5 million
8. Jennifer's Body- $3.5 million
9. 9- $3 million
10. Inglourious Basterds- $2.5 million

I say Meatballs will take the weekend again. Surrogates may come out on top, and may even make it into the 20s, but I get the feeling it will put up numbers similar to Lakeview Terrace. Fame is in 3000 theatres, but I don't really see the appeal. The Informant! should have a solid hold. I don't see Pandorum doing very well.
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  #2176  
Old 09-22-2009, 11:12 AM
new to the game...

waz up? first name stu, last name dent. i'm new to the game, so fellow schmoes, i say hello and how are you today? awesome? great.
very excited to get started here in the pirates galley of fake reality entertainment of hartford and so on, i think surrogates and fame will fight it out for 23 million and number one just because the source material of both films have huge followings {bruce willis action and colorful musical} and cloudy with a chance of meatballs, which was good but the book was better and it had that pixar knock-off feel to it, will probably do 15-17 mil for 3rd or close 2nd. pandorum will bomb, cause it's a retread deep fried in a very fattening low budget dump flick. the informant and love happens both sucked hard so they should have reasonable drops. i'm so stoked for all the big holiday movies coming up. all in all, should be a first good fall season weekend at the movies. be there or be circle!
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  #2177  
Old 09-22-2009, 01:15 PM
My predictions for the Weekend of September 25th-27th

1. The Surrogates- $22 million
2. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs- $17 million
3. Pandorum- $10 million
4. The Informant!- $8 million
5. Fame- $5 million
6. Love Happens- $4 million
7. I Can Do Bad All By Myself- $3 million
8. 9- $2.5 million
9. Jennifer's Body- $2 million
10. Paranormal Activity- $2 million

I think Meatballs will do well, but I'm siding with Surrogates on taking the weekend simply because it's a big movie with Bruce Willis and Willis usually does well at the box office. However, I haven't seen much in the way of advertisement for Surrogates so... who knows. My third place pick for Pandorum was made in the vein of hopeful optimism. Horror isn't doing so well right now (Jennifer's Body bombed and Halloween II disappointed), so I'd be surprised if it made more than $10. The Informant! should do decently this weekend, but I think audiences will be a little mixed based on the word of mouth from last week. I haven't seen the film yet myself, but I understand some people were disappointed due to it not being as outright funny as they expected. I hope Fame doesn't make much of an impact, but kids love these dancing movies.
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  #2178  
Old 09-27-2009, 02:01 PM
Predictions for the Weekend of October 2nd-4th

1. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs- $17 million
2. Zombieland- $15 million
3. Toy Story- $12 million
4. The Invention of Lying- $8 million
5. Surrogates- $7 million
6. Fame- $5.5 million
7. Whip It- $6 million
8 The Informant!- $5.25 million
9. Capitalism: A Love Story- $5 million
10. I Can Do Bad All By Myself- $2.5 million

Meatballs could very well take the weekend again, unless the Toy Story 3D Double Feature makes it lose a lot of screens. Zombieland should have a decent opening and could take the top spot depending on how much Meatballs drops. I'm not sure how the Toy Story double feature will do. It's in 1600 theatres, but are people really going to want to take their kids to the movies for that long? The Invention of Lying has a lousy theatre count, so it probably won't end up doing all that well. Surrogates should drop around 50%, as should Fame. Whip It probably won't do very well. The Informant should have another strong hold. Capitalism is expanding a bit, so it should make its way into the top 10.
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  #2179  
Old 09-27-2009, 08:00 PM
predictions for 10.2--4,2009

1. StuDent Film 142 mil
2. Cloudy with a chance of meatballs 15 mil
3. Zombie land 11 mil
4. Surrogates 8 mil
5. The invention of lying 6.2 mil
6. Fame 5.1 mil
7. The informant! 4.7 mil
8. Whip it! 3.2 mil
9. Captialism: a love story 2.7 mil
10. Love happens 1.8 mil
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  #2180  
Old 09-27-2009, 08:12 PM
hi, please disregard the number one prediction, just some friends playing a practical joke on me because of a stressful week at the office. my real number one shooter is the toy story
3-D double feature with close to 30 mil. i know it's a long shot, but everyone seems stoked for the third movie next year and a christmas carol next month. plus, these charectors have a huge cult following so i shouldn't really see a reason why people wouldn't give it a shot.
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  #2181  
Old 09-29-2009, 08:28 AM
If ZL is in at least 3000 theaters, maybe it could snag the highest "zombie" movie opening of all time, which is about 27 mil by Dawn 04. It accomplished this feat in 2745 theaters, with a Psa of 9735. I think ZL can do 30 mil( the Psa should be above 10000), it appears to have the proper amount of buzz, it's the right time of year and it may be one of those films that attracts non zom movie fans .

Of course i'm being optimistic, i tend to overestimate certain films, but this one just may have a chance to do some serious damage.

For a film such as this to hit 30 mil opening weekend would be quite an accomplishment, like i mentioned, no zom movie has ever done that before.

Now since i tend to go over the top with some of my predictions, 15 mil is probably more realistic.

I'm thinking:

Fri-14 mil
Sat-11 mil
Sun-6 mil

31 mil total for the 3 day
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  #2182  
Old 09-29-2009, 03:11 PM
zombie land won't be successful. it comes across as another "shaun of the dead". a film that was never successful to begin with. also, no real stars and no real laughs from the previews. everyone's sick of the zombie craze and horror spoof on top of everything else.
maybe, like evil dead before it, will have another life on dvd or sci fi network. but i don't see it doing very well. everyone involved with this should have known better. especially 2012.
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  #2183  
Old 09-29-2009, 05:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stuDent12 View Post
zombie land won't be successful. it comes across as another "shaun of the dead". a film that was never successful to begin with. also, no real stars and no real laughs from the previews. everyone's sick of the zombie craze and horror spoof on top of everything else.
maybe, like evil dead before it, will have another life on dvd or sci fi network. but i don't see it doing very well. everyone involved with this should have known better. especially 2012.
Woody Harrelson is not a star?
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  #2184  
Old 09-29-2009, 06:59 PM
Zombieland - 27/29 million
Lying - 12 million
Whip It - 17 million
Toy Story - 15 million
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  #2185  
Old 09-29-2009, 07:20 PM
oh yeah, the bartender from cheers, the bounty hunter from no country for old men and larry flynt REALLY packs houses and makes will smith shake in his boots. i never really understood woody harrelson's "acting method". it's the same one-note, one-joke charector almost every time. maybe if he picked better scripts and took time to really inhabit some of those charectors quality traits like daniel day-lewis and anthony hopkins, i would say differ. but woody's more of a TV and cheap low budget action movie sidekick to me than an actual star.
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  #2186  
Old 09-30-2009, 08:11 AM
You could be right about WH's appeal and the appeal of the zombie subgenre in general, that's why i'm admitting my prediction is overly optimistic.

I would be surprised if it didn't at least hit 20 mil, it genuinely looks like it will have wide appeal, girls, guys, men, women will want to see this, it looks like an unconventional date movie also, that's a plus. Also, it's not exactly competing with anything else.
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  #2187  
Old 10-04-2009, 01:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stuDent12 View Post
zombie land won't be successful. it comes across as another "shaun of the dead". a film that was never successful to begin with. also, no real stars and no real laughs from the previews. everyone's sick of the zombie craze and horror spoof on top of everything else.
maybe, like evil dead before it, will have another life on dvd or sci fi network. but i don't see it doing very well. everyone involved with this should have known better. especially 2012.
Make that not everyone is sick of romzomcoms

One thing you have to remember concerning Sotd, it was more a cult hit, it's budget was low and it starred an all British cast, considering that, it did excellent over here.
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  #2188  
Old 10-04-2009, 01:42 PM
fake reality's predictions for october 9th--11th, 2009.

.................................................. .................................................. .....................
. couples retreat 28 mil
. zombieland 11 mil
. cloudy/meatballs 9 mil
. invention of lying 6mil
. surrogates 4 mil
. captialism a love story 3.2 mil
. whip it 3 mil
. fame 2 mil
. the informant 1.2 mil

. couples retreat should have a decent opening given the cast and material. everything else should have small drops also due to the incoming columbus day weekend and postive feedback.
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  #2189  
Old 10-04-2009, 02:43 PM
Predictions for the Weekend of October 9th-11th

1. Couples Retreat- $28 million
2. Zombieland- $14 million
3. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs- $11.75 million
4. Toy Story- $8 million
5. The Invention of Lying- $4.5 million
6. Surrogates- $3.75 million
7. Whip It- $3 million
8. Capitalism: A Love Story- $2.75 million
9. Fame- $2.5 million
10. The Informant!- $2.25 million

Couples Retreat should take the weekend with anywhere from $20 million to $30 million. I'll go more towards the latter. Zombieland's WOM seems to be really good, so it should have a decent hold. Cloudy should continue to do well. Toy Story should have a good hold. Paranormal Activity may also crack the top 10, but I'll wait to see some theatre counts, etc. before I make that call.
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  #2190  
Old 10-04-2009, 04:46 PM
I dunno if Toy Story will hold well. Re-releases are frontloaded these days.
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  #2191  
Old 10-04-2009, 04:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jon Lyrik View Post
I dunno if Toy Story will hold well. Re-releases are frontloaded these days.
True, although this will be its last week and it has the 3D boost.
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  #2192  
Old 10-09-2009, 12:00 PM
Any predictions about what PA can do, the theater count has been increased and it's not limited to midnite showings anymore.

The increased number of showings should give it a higher Psa. It made about a 15,000 psa last weekend in 33 theaters. If it maintained the same Psa with the increased number of theaters and showings, that would give it almost 2.4 mil for the weekend, which would probably be enough to get it in the top ten( was 14th last weekend). I'm thinking it's going to do even better though, with a Psa of about 40,000, that would give it 6 mil plus for the weekend. Every midnight show has sold out so far. Those same people who came up against a sold out showing will be able to see it any time during the day now.


Couples retreat should do well, and it may even snag some stragglers for people that can't get into PA, but the real story is a film that only cost about 11,000 and has now crossed the 1 mil dollar mark.

Couple's Retreat- 28 mil
Paranormal Activity-6.3mil
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  #2193  
Old 10-09-2009, 12:20 PM
Yeah, definitely add Paranormal Activity to my top 10 predictions for this weekend. I could see it making $3 million to $5 million. It's in 159 theatres, and with the increased amount of shows it could have a PTA of $20,000+. Hell, it could end up being much higher than that.
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  #2194  
Old 10-09-2009, 02:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
Yeah, definitely add Paranormal Activity to my top 10 predictions for this weekend. I could see it making $3 million to $5 million. It's in 159 theatres, and with the increased amount of shows it could have a PTA of $20,000+. Hell, it could end up being much higher than that.
I just don't get why that film is so popular. *shrugs*
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  #2195  
Old 10-09-2009, 03:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ericdraven View Post
I just don't get why that film is so popular. *shrugs*
I've seen it and I don't get it either. I was surprised when so many people showed up to the free screening. I only went because it was free.
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  #2196  
Old 10-09-2009, 03:33 PM
It's popular because it's so amazing and perfect. Simple as that.
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  #2197  
Old 10-09-2009, 09:52 PM
PA will definitely be in the top 10.
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  #2198  
Old 10-10-2009, 12:57 PM
The way it's going now, it may challenge for the number 2 spot. It was obvious before, but now it's official, it's a phenomenon. I said in the other thread, it should cross 100 mil by the end of it's run, the hype isn't dying down anytime soon and it has tremendous momentum. The whole Halloween thing will only help it even more. People are seeing this multiple times and bringing friends.

This will be the most profitable film ever made.

Now get ready for multiple ripoffs(PA just may be a ripoff of another film but that doesn't matter right now), and innumerable Youtube spoofs.
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  #2199  
Old 10-10-2009, 01:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dellamorte dellamore View Post
This will be the most profitable film ever made.
While I agree that it will definitely be extremely profitable, that's a pretty far-fetched statement. Even if it makes over $100 million (meaning around $100 million profit), there are other films that have made more profit than that. It will have to really explode to be as profitable as The Blair Witch Project.
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  #2200  
Old 10-10-2009, 02:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
While I agree that it will definitely be extremely profitable, that's a pretty far-fetched statement. Even if it makes over $100 million (meaning around $100 million profit), there are other films that have made more profit than that. It will have to really explode to be as profitable as The Blair Witch Project.
Based on return on investment, that statement isn't far-fetched.

http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/records/budgets.php

Right now the #1 is Blair Witch. And this has what, 1/3 the budget. So it would only have to make 1/3 the profit. Blair Witch made $248 mil worldwide. One third of that should be no problem.
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