Box Office Predictions Thread

[ericdraven]

Originally Posted by LordSimen

It's funny because you were the one who technically started it. Typical.

Well whatever, I'm done arguing about this movie now. You guys are making me hate it more and more and I walked into this thread wanting to see it.

Yeah, I was replying to a statement you made, not looking to start one, then you went on and fucking started one.

[MarcoG]

...........and BTW I apologize to anyone annoyed or bothered by this "arguement". I don't mean to step on anyone's toes, I only joined this site last night.

Sorry, and thank you.

[ericdraven]

Originally Posted by MarcoG

...........and BTW I apologize to anyone annoyed or bothered by this "arguement". I don't mean to step on anyone's toes, I only joined this site last night.

Sorry, and thank you.

well, you sure established yourself now.

[LordSimen]

Originally Posted by ericdraven

Yeah, I was replying to a statement you made, not looking to start one, then you went on and fucking started one.

I didn't start it, you did with your blatantly antagonistic post which you only posted for the sole purpose of starting an argument, just so you could come back later and do this. You're see through Mr. Draven, and it's amusing.

[ericdraven]

Originally Posted by LordSimen

I didn't start it, you did with your blatantly antagonistic post which you only posted for the sole purpose of starting an argument, just so you could come back later and do this. You're see through Mr. Draven, and it's amusing.

I said in my post that I didn't get the appeal of PA, I then shrugged my shoulders, you were the only one that replied, and I expected no reply to that statement, but then I made that other statement to counter how ridiculous yours was.

[LordSimen]

Oh?

Originally Posted by ericdraven

yeah, a cliche horror film will be destroyed by probably a somewhat a original movie. I agree.

Yeah. You were REALLY just shrugging your shoulders and not expecting a reply. As I said, see-through.

[ericdraven]

Originally Posted by LordSimen

Oh?



Yeah. You were REALLY just shrugging your shoulders and not expecting a reply. As I said, see-through.

Oh yeah, i was bashing a event film that was, oh so scared, to horror movie fans.

[LordSimen]

I didn't find it funny.

[ericdraven]

Originally Posted by LordSimen

I didn't find it funny.

I find it funny you keep defending it. really.

[LordSimen]

I find it funny you claim a film is somewhat original when it isn't, so we're even.

[dellamorte dellamore]

Originally Posted by LordSimen

That plot doesn't sound anything like Paranormal Activity. The only similarity is that both characters in both movies document things, but so does Jeff Goldblum in The Fly- That doesn't make The Fly anything like PA or In Memorium.

Two months after being diagnosed with terminal cancer,
Dennis Wade, a struggling filmmaker, decides to document
his illness. Still free from symptoms, he and his girlfriend,
Lily, sublet a house and install motion-triggered security
cameras throughout.

Two days later...the cameras capture something unsettling:
Noises and movement in empty rooms. The next morning,
Dennis' cancer begins to advance at an inexplicable rate.

As Dennis worsens by the day, he and Lily discover the
horrific source of the disturbances. With his time running out,
they must make a decision: Leave the house and save her
life...or stay…and save his.

end synopsis


Okay, so the motivation to film was different, but the premise sounds eerily familiar

[LordSimen]

The more details you add to the synopsis the more different the movies sound.

[Smiert Spionam]

LS, do you take any attack on a new horror film as a personal insult?

Seriously....

[LordSimen]

Originally Posted by Smiert Spionam

LS, do you take any attack on a new horror film as a personal insult?

Seriously....

No more than anyone here took an attack on their precious overhyped, weeping trailer movie as an insult, Smiert.

[CyclicNightmare]

This is one of the worst arguments I've ever seen.

[dellamorte dellamore]

Originally Posted by LordSimen

The more details you add to the synopsis the more different the movies sound.

You just can't admit that you're little golden boy just may not be as original as you thought. It's obvious, you're blinded by your love of this film right now, can't debate with someone who's not in a discerning state of mind. If you can't see any similarities it's pointless for me to go on anymore concerning this comparison.

Plus, this is the BO prediction thread, time to get back to predicting, the main purpose of this thread

[LordSimen]

Originally Posted by dellamorte dellamore

Plus, this is the BO prediction thread, time to get back to predicting, the main purpose of this thread

Fair enough. My predictions:

1. Where the Wild Things Are - 50mil
2. Paranormal Activity - 15mil
3. Couples Retreat - 10mil
4. Law Abiding Citizen - 8mil
5. Zombieland - 7mil
6. Stepfather - 7mil
7. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs - 5mil
8. Surrogates - 2mil
9. Whip it - 2 mil
10. Invention of Lying - 1mil

[Smiert Spionam]

Originally Posted by LordSimen

No more than anyone here took an attack on their precious overhyped, weeping trailer movie as an insult, Smiert.

Sorry, LS, I'm not like you. I have no attachment to any upcoming movie, regardless if they're overhyped, unoriginal, or a steaming pile of garbage, but nice try....

But foreal, you can't act like that whenever someone disses a new horror film, regardless of how shitty its considered, you don't come in, both guns blazing in its defense. You claim that most people only hate you because they can't accept that you have a differing view point, yet you can't accept when someone has a different viewpoint on something you like or are anticipating, so you start these ridiculous arguments that go nowhere, but never end, because you've gotta get in the last word.

If someone doesn't think something looks good or looks original, no amount of posts you make or straw man arguments you form are gonna change their opinion, so why even bother? And if you honestly think people are reallying trying to bait you into arguments, why take the bait?

[stuDent12]

i really couldn't care less about anything coming out friday, but it will be a big weekend nonetheless so, i'm just taking a shot in the dark here and just...

1.Where the wild things are 25 mil
2.couples retreat 16 mil
3.paranormal activity 12 mil
4.law abiding citizen 8 mil
5.zombieland 6.2 mil
6.cloudy w/meatballs 5.8 mil
7.the stepfather 4.1 mil
8. surrogates 2.0 mil
9. whip it! 1.6 mil
10.captialism a love story 1.3 mil

[dellamorte dellamore]

Originally Posted by LordSimen

Fair enough. My predictions:

1. Where the Wild Things Are - 50mil
2. Paranormal Activity - 15mil
3. Couples Retreat - 10mil
4. Law Abiding Citizen - 8mil
5. Zombieland - 7mil
6. Stepfather - 7mil
7. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs - 5mil
8. Surrogates - 2mil
9. Whip it - 2 mil
10. Invention of Lying - 1mil

That sounds about right for Wild Things, i'm thinking it may do more.

The final weekend theater counts for PA will be up at 5 pm today, i'll be able to get a better idea of what it may do once i see them.

I don't see CR dropping that hard, i think it's going to hold up well.

Law abiding citizen is going to bomb big time, it looks dreadful, and it has zero buzz.

WTWTA- 60mil

PA- 30 mil(tentative)

CR-22mil

I'll finish the list later

[dellamorte dellamore]

Originally Posted by stuDent12

i really couldn't care less about anything coming out friday, but it will be a big weekend nonetheless so, i'm just taking a shot in the dark here and just...

1.Where the wild things are 25 mil
2.couples retreat 16 mil
3.paranormal activity 12 mil
4.law abiding citizen 8 mil
5.zombieland 6.2 mil
6.cloudy w/meatballs 5.8 mil
7.the stepfather 4.1 mil
8. surrogates 2.0 mil
9. whip it! 1.6 mil
10.captialism a love story 1.3 mil

Student i think you're lowballing a bit with some of those predictions, that's okay i tend to highball

[MisterChristian]

According to The Hollywood Reporter, PA will expand to 800 theatres this weekend and hopefully expand to 2,000 for October 23 - to compete with Saw VI.

'Paranormal Activity' has not-so-normal rollout

[Bourne101]

With that theatre count, I predict around $20 million, which would give it a $25,000 PTA.

[stuDent12]

Originally Posted by MisterChristian

According to The Hollywood Reporter, PA will expand to 800 theatres this weekend and hopefully expand to 2,000 for October 23 - to compete with Saw VI.

'Paranormal Activity' has not-so-normal rollout

i'm sorry, but that's a very bad idea. we already had 2 scary movies on the same weekend going for the top spot last year. i mean, some things just don't work two years in a row.

[FireCaptain4]

Originally Posted by stuDent12

i'm sorry, but that's a very bad idea. we already had 2 scary movies on the same weekend going for the top spot last year. i mean, some things just don't work two years in a row.

It can't be that bad of an idea. Paranormal Activity has a really small budget ($15,000 I thinks) and it's already made... way past its budget. Expanding would only help, even if it only makes a few million. It doesn't have to take the top stop to already be a wild success financially. Besides, people love these shaky-cam horror flicks. Cloverfield and Quarantine were both successful last year.

[dellamorte dellamore]

I'll go with a 30,000 psa and a 24 mil weekend for PA.

[MisterChristian]

The Hollywood Reporter:

Paramount expanded its micro-budgeted ghost story "Paranormal Activity" by 600 runs for a total 760 and registered $6.7 million in third place on the day, with a $20.3 million cume. The studio is expected to widen the surprise platform hit further next weekend.

So that's an approximate $8,815 PSA?

[dellamorte dellamore]

That's not bad, the psa i'm predicting is a 3 day total. No matter, i don't think it has a chance to hit 24 mil now.

[stuDent12]

1. the vampire's assistant 36 million
2. SAW VI 27 million
3. where the wild things are 18 million
4. paranormal activity 13 million
5. law abiding citizen 10 million
6. couples retreat 8 million
7. Astro boy 6 million
8. the stepfather 5 million
9. amelia 3.2 million
10. cloudy with a chance of meatballs 3 million

i think vampire's assistant will pull off a surprise win. it'll be something to hold the vampire nuts over till new moon tears it up in a month. saw 6 will do it's usual decent guilty pleasure halloween business. wild things and paranormal activity will continue good business. citizen, stepfather and couples will have understandable drops. after cloudy's big september success, i don't see astro boy striking it big. not a lot of people are familiar with the original source material and the animation doesn't look that great. amelia looks like another one of those come and go oscar flicks. should be a fantastic holiday kickoff weekend coming up, especially with michael jackson and christmas carol 3D on the horizon.

[dellamorte dellamore]

I'll have to think about this one. Of course Saw always does well but no it will have PA to contend with, which is expanding once again.

I don't know anything about this pseudo vampire movie , you really think it can do that well?

[Bourne101]

Predictions for the Weekend of October 23rd-25th

1. Saw VI- $29 million
2. Paranormal Activity- $20 million
3. Where the Wild Things Are- $18 million
4. Astro Boy- $15 million
5. Law Abiding Citizen- $10.5 million
6. Couples Retreat- $10 milllion
7. The Vampire's Assistant- $7 million
8. Amelia- $6.5 million
9. The Stepfather- $6.25 million
10. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs- $6 million

Saw VI should take the weekend. Paranormal Activity and Where the Wild Things Are should battle it out for the #2 spot, and possibly Astro Boy (I have no idea how it is going to do). Law Abiding Citizen should drop around 50%. Couples Retreat should drop around 45%. The Vampire's Assistant probably won't do very well. Amelia is only opening in 800 theatres, but should have a decent PTA to get it into the top 10. The Stepfather should drop around 50%. Meatballs should continue to kick ass.

[ericdraven]

I see PA doing 25 because they are going to up it more screens.

[Bourne101]

Originally Posted by ericdraven

I see PA doing 25 because they are going to up it more screens.

They are indeed upping it to more screens, but that also means the PTA is going to be quite a bit lower. I think it'll make about the same next weekend as it did this weekend. You could be right though.

[LordSimen]

I have a feeling that the hype for Paranormal Activity is starting to backfire sadly, while the movie has lasted this long with an intense and growing fanbase... I've noticed that after this last weekend it's started to get the inevitable "Blair Witch" style backlash on it's own facebook page that didn't exist a week ago. It depresses me, because word of mouth is what has kept this movie going and now if people start killing that, the movie will never quite make the statement it could have. Ugh. I hate people.

[dellamorte dellamore]

That's inevitable, there's always a backlash with films that are hyped up beyond what you would normally see. It got to me too until i realized it was an intelligent way to introduce an indie with no name actors to the masses. Build some buzz for the people that are desperate to see it and let it go from there.

One thing Blair had in it's favor, they maintained the found footage concept as long as they could, even at the height of it's popularity, people still thought the "actors" went missing.

If it does another 20 mil next weekend, and i don't see why it won't at least make that much, that would give it close to 55 mil, that's insane. I hope it can beat the dead horse that is Saw, that would be nice, but i'm not so sure it can.

[stuDent12]

1. Michael Jackson's THIS IS IT 45 mil
2. Paranormal Activity 16 mil
3. Gentlemen broncos 12 mil
4. Saw 6 9 mil
5. where the wild things are 7.8 mil
6. Law abiding citizen 6 mil
7. couples retreat 5.3 mil
8. Astro boy 3.2 mil
9. vampire's assistant 2 mil
10. the stepfather 1.4 mil

I'll be away for a week for one of the biggest holidays of the year so here it goes... MJ will dominate, that much is certain. not entirely sure how much it will do though, because of the 2-week run, the fact that Paranormal activity came out of nowhere and is tearing shit up and also for people who had mixed feelings about all this. i'm gonna go with my moonwalking gut on this one and say 45 mil. not sure about this one either, but Napoleon dynamite fans will probably flock to GB enough to give it a decent opening. everything else should do a'ight.

[Bourne101]

Predictions for the Weekend of October 30th-November 1st

1. Michael Jackson's This Is It- $42 million
2. Paranormal Activity- $14.5 million
3. Where the Wild Things Are- $7.5 million
4. Law Abiding Citizen- $7.25 million
5. Saw VI- $6.75 million
6. Couples Retreat- $6.5 million
7. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs- $4 million
8. Astro Boy- $3.5 million
9. The Stepfather- $3.25 million
10. Cirque du Freak: The Vampire's Assistant- $3 million

Halloween weekend at the box-office is never all it is hyped up to be. New horror movies usually open to disappointing numbers, and horror films that opened on previous weekends tend to drop harder than expected. Just look at last year's Halloween numbers (Halloween fell on a Friday) and you'll see what I mean. For this reason, I expect Paranormal Activity (unless it expands to 3000 theatres) will have its first declining weekend. That's not to say it will have a huge drop or anything, but a 35% drop wouldn't surprise me. Saw VI will definitely have a big drop though... that's a given.

The big one though is not Paranormal Activity or Saw VI or Where the Wild Things are, it is Michael Jackson's This Is It. The film that is apparently outselling films like Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen and Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince in pre-sales. I expect it will be quite front-loaded and the whole "Get your tickets a month early, it's only showing for two weeks" thing has probably helped it in the pre-sales category, but it should have a pretty solid first five days. With a shot in the dark prediction, I'm gonna say $42 million for the weekend, and $75 million for the 5-day.

[stuDent12]

1. Disney's A Christmas Carol 42 mil
2. Michael Jackson's This is it 18 mil
3. Men who stare at goats 15 mil
4. Paranormal Activity 10 mil
5. Law abiding citizen 7 mil
6. The Fourth Kind 6.1 mil
7. The Box 5 mil
8. Couples retreat 4.2 mil
9. SAW VI 3.4 mil
10. Where the wild things are 2 mil


Next weekend finally marks the official holiday movie season kickoff and while it won't do gangbusters, the new 3D christmas carol will most likely bring in enough families and jim carrey fans to make it a solid open. this is it will probably have a strong hold next weekend till it goes away the following wednesday, men who stare at goats has an interesting enough marketing campaign, cast and premise to bring in enough people who are looking for a dumb laugh or two. the fourth kind and the box both look cheesy and stupid and will most likely join the list of scary movies that missed the halloween train in november and not do so well. everything else will have less than considerable drops.

[Bourne101]

Predictions for the Weekend of November 6th-8th

1. A Christmas Carol- $40 million
2. Michael Jackson's This Is It- $14.5 million
3. The Box- $13 million
4. Paranormal Activity- $12 million
5. The Men Who Stare at Goats- $10 million
6. The Fourth Kind- $8 million
7. Law Abiding Citizen- $4.5 million
8. Couples Retreat- $3.5 million
9. Where the Wild Things Are- $2.75 million
10. Saw VI- $2.5 million

A Christmas Carol should definitely take the weekend. This is It should have a pretty strong hold. I have no idea how The Box will do. It's getting quite a bit of advertisement so it should do alright. Paranormal Activity should continue to do well. The Men Who Stare at Goats is only in 2200 theatres, so it probably won't do all that well. The Fourth Kind probably won't hit double digits, but who knows.

[ericdraven]

A Christmas Carol - 35 million
Men Who Stare at Goats - 15 million
The Box - 11 million



The Fourth Kind - 6 million

Maybe if they released it before halloween it would have a chance?