#201  
Old 03-29-2004, 09:03 AM
1. SD2: $18.7 Million
2. Hellboy: $15.2 Million
3. Walking Tall: $11 Million
4. Home On The Range: $10.6 Million
5. Prince & Me : $8.5 Million
6. Ladykillers: $7.4 Million

Last edited by XCoRyX; 03-29-2004 at 06:07 PM..
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  #202  
Old 03-29-2004, 11:23 AM
Holy shit I missed on Scooby Doo 2 by $145,000 that's pretty damn good although I didn't think Jersey Gilr would get that much and I didn't think Ladykillers wouldn't get as much either.
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  #203  
Old 03-29-2004, 11:32 AM
Hellboy and Walking Tall are after the same audience, more or less. Both will have appeal outside of young males, but how much? The Rundown didn't do all that well, and I feel like there was more promotion and awareness around that one. He has a solid fan base, but does anyone outside of it really care about seeing his movies? He has had trouble broadening his appeal (personally, I think he has what it takes). Warner Bros. of course claimed Doo 2 was a rousing success, despite a bigger budget and a 43% smaller opening than the first. Kids are still in school and I expect a big drop.

1) Hellboy: $22 million
2) Scooby Doo 2: $16.5 million
3) Walking Tall: $13 million
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  #204  
Old 03-29-2004, 12:23 PM
Next week releases (theater counts courtesy of BOM):

Home on the Range - 3,000 theaters
Hellboy - 2,700+ theaters
The Prince and Me - 2,700 theaters
Walking Tall - 2,700 theaters
The United States of Leland - 13 theaters
Shaolin Soccer - 6 theaters
Spring, Summer, Fall, Winter... and Spring - 6 theaters

Expanding:

Jersey Girl - 1,870 (+350) theaters
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  #205  
Old 03-29-2004, 12:25 PM
My predictions:

Home on the Range - $28 M
Hellboy - $20 M
The Prince and Me - $12 M
Walking Tall - $13 M
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  #206  
Old 03-29-2004, 02:25 PM
1. Home on the Range- $29 million
2. Hellboy- $23 million
3. Scooby-Doo 2: Monsters Unleased- $19 million
4. The Prince and Me- $15 million
5. Walking Tall- $12 million
6. The Passion of the Christ- $9 million
7. The Ladykillers- $7 million
8. Dawn of the Dead- $6 million
9. Jersey Girl- $5 million
10. Starsky & Hutch- $4 million
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  #207  
Old 03-29-2004, 03:31 PM
What's with the high predictions for Home on the Range? Is it tracking well? I have seen zero TV spots or trailers for it. I didn't know it was coming out this Friday until last week. I see very little awareness and excitement for it. Same for The Prince and Me. I don't see an opening of $10 million or more. Kind of a crowded weekend, and I don't think the demand is there.
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  #208  
Old 03-29-2004, 03:47 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by MadsenOMC
What's with the high predictions for Home on the Range? Is it tracking well? I have seen zero TV spots or trailers for it. I didn't know it was coming out this Friday until last week. I see very little awareness and excitement for it. Same for The Prince and Me. I don't see an opening of $10 million or more. Kind of a crowded weekend, and I don't think the demand is there.
Since I don't live there in the USA and I can't properly track the momentum of the films, my guidelines are two basic things:

1) Number of theaters in which they're released

2) Kind of film


Animation usually do well, and more if it's Disney (at least as of lately). And it's opening in 3000 theaters. I see it having Brother Bear's career. As for the others... blind guess for The Prince and Me, more confident in the rest.
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  #209  
Old 03-29-2004, 03:51 PM
That is a lot of theaters. Brother Bear was released on a Saturday wasn't it, and made like $18 million or so? I remember seeing TV spots and trailers for that one. I have seen nothing for Home on the Range. It will have Doo 2's second weekend to compete with, plus some young girls that would rather see The Prince and Me. Young males will be heading to Hellboy and Walking Tall instead. So I don't see something in the $25-$30 million range because of that. With The Prince and Me, others in the genre haven't opened all that well. I'm thinking of Confessions of a Teenage Drama Queen and Chasing Liberty. Maybe about $8 million.
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  #210  
Old 03-29-2004, 03:58 PM
I'm surprised to see so many people underestimating the drawing power of the Rock....

I expect Walking Tall to either match Rundown's 18 million dollar opening or top it. 18-20 mill.
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  #211  
Old 03-29-2004, 04:04 PM
Fred, remember that Walking Tall and Hellboy are aimed at virtually the same audience. That will probably dent the box office for both, but I would guess that it will hurt Walking Tall more. I don't sense much interest in it, and word of mouth won't be great. The Foywonder tore it a new one over at AICN. Said if Seagal was in it and the title was Fire Down Below 2, no one would have noticed the difference.
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  #212  
Old 03-29-2004, 05:04 PM
Argh!

The Prince And Me -- Too much!
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  #213  
Old 03-29-2004, 05:06 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by MadsenOMC
That is a lot of theaters. Brother Bear was released on a Saturday wasn't it, and made like $18 million or so? I remember seeing TV spots and trailers for that one. I have seen nothing for Home on the Range. It will have Doo 2's second weekend to compete with, plus some young girls that would rather see The Prince and Me. Young males will be heading to Hellboy and Walking Tall instead. So I don't see something in the $25-$30 million range because of that. With The Prince and Me, others in the genre haven't opened all that well. I'm thinking of Confessions of a Teenage Drama Queen and Chasing Liberty. Maybe about $8 million.
I've seen a good handful of ads around here. I don't think it will make anything over Brother Bear numbers and the budget is ridiculous, but the opening won't be bad.

Prince and Me I've seen very minimal marketing for.

Hellboy will be the big film of Spring.

Walking Tall will be hurt significantly by Hellboy. Tall might have opened at Rundown numbers or more if it was pushed back a month.

Hellboy: $32.5 million
Home on the Range: $17 million
Walking Tall: $14.5 million
The Prince and Me: $7.9 million

Last edited by Jon Lyrik; 03-29-2004 at 05:08 PM..
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  #214  
Old 03-29-2004, 05:09 PM
Althought Hellboy is having really good buzz, I think it will struggle to reach outside the geek audience. It will probably have good legs, thought.

18 million opening. 70 million finish.
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  #215  
Old 03-29-2004, 05:17 PM
Hellboy- $25 million
Home on the Range- $20 million
Walking Tall- $16 million
The Prince and Me- $6 million
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  #216  
Old 03-29-2004, 06:11 PM
I'm no good at numbers so here's my general thoughts. Hellboy will easily beat out Walking Tall. It has the action and supernatural elements to attract the horror crowds, which have been coming out in the masses since last october. I don't see Hellboy pulling more than 20 million however, because to many it looks really stupid and doesnt have as much of a mainstream appeal as recent horror hits have. Still, the film carries a teenage boy friendly PG-13.

The Rock is not a box office draw in the slightest, and not even when he costarred with Sean William Scott could he pull very good numbers. 15 million tops for this one.

Home on the Range has gotten - IMO - no advertising and will have stiff competition with Scooby's second week. They both might pull high teens, and I hope Scooby overcomes this shitty Disney crap. It's sad how bad their animated flicks have become.

I can see Jersey Girl rake around 6 million, the theater expand should help it out.

The Prince and Me looks like crap and has to compete at least a small amount with Scooby 2 and Jersey Girl. Chasing Liberty went to hell, this should do even worse.
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  #217  
Old 03-29-2004, 06:18 PM
I find it almost impossible to believe that Home on the Range is anywhere close to as bad as Scooby Doo 2.
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  #218  
Old 03-29-2004, 06:38 PM
I'm not a comic book reader, so I have a question for those who are more familiar with them. Daredevil wasn't/isn't nearly as popular as, say, Batman, X-Men and Spiderman in the comic book world right? And it still managed to open to $47 million. I don't think Hellboy will do that well, but is a $30 million opening all that unreasonable?
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  #219  
Old 03-29-2004, 06:45 PM
Scooby-Doo 2: Monsters Unleashed - (25.4 / 29.40) -- Accuracy: 86.39%
The Ladykillers - (16.2 / 12.60) -- Accuracy: 71.43%
Passion Of The Christ - (11.9 / 12.60) -- Accuracy: 94.44%
Dawn of the dead - (13.1 / 10.70) -- Accuracy: 77.57%
Jersey Girl - (7.5 / 8.30) -- Accuracy: 90.36%
Taking lives - (6 / 6.60) -- Accuracy: 90.91%
Starsky & Hutch - (6.9 / 6.20) -- Accuracy: 88.71%
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind - (6.1 / 5.30) -- Accuracy: 84.91%
Secret window - (5.2 / 5.30) -- Accuracy: 98.11%
Hidalgo - (5.6 / 5.30) -- Accuracy: 94.34%
Never Die Alone - (6.8 / 3.10) -- Accuracy: 0.00%
Agent Code Banks 2 - (4.2 / 2.80) -- Accuracy: 50.00%

OVERALL ACTUAL ACCURACY: 77.26%

New Release: 62.05%
Still in Theater: 84.87%

Because of the different between the studio estimate and the actual number.
You've gain a 3.26% in your average.
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  #220  
Old 03-29-2004, 07:03 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by EDsoulsurvive*


The Rock is not a box office draw in the slightest, and not even when he costarred with Sean William Scott could he pull very good numbers. 15 million tops for this one.

His film, The Scorpion King, opened to 30 million dollars. I wouldn't say the Rock isn't a box office draw at all.

The Rundown is killing on DVD, BTW (#1 bought and rented DVD/VHS, sold 1.5 million copies. Now multiply 1.5 million times a rough figure of say 20 dollars. Oh yeah, it's KILLING. ).

If this film doesn't make Rock a star and rake in some money, you can bet your ass Spy Hunter will.

I still say 18-20 for Walking Tall. Scooby Doo 2's doing pretty dismal so far (29 million opening compared to the original's 50 million), Hellboy, meh I can see it topping Walking Tall, but I think it'll be close.

I honestly don't see Home on the Range making a whole lot of money. Granted it's a kid movie, but animation not done digitally (a la Finding Nemo) just doesn't do as well anymore.
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  #221  
Old 03-29-2004, 07:32 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by Mr. Fred Krueger
His film, The Scorpion King, opened to 30 million dollars. I wouldn't say the Rock isn't a box office draw at all.

The Rundown is killing on DVD, BTW (#1 bought and rented DVD/VHS, sold 1.5 million copies. Now multiply 1.5 million times a rough figure of say 20 dollars. Oh yeah, it's KILLING. ).

If this film doesn't make Rock a star and rake in some money, you can bet your ass Spy Hunter will.

I still say 18-20 for Walking Tall. Scooby Doo 2's doing pretty dismal so far (29 million opening compared to the original's 50 million), Hellboy, meh I can see it topping Walking Tall, but I think it'll be close.

I honestly don't see Home on the Range making a whole lot of money. Granted it's a kid movie, but animation not done digitally (a la Finding Nemo) just doesn't do as well anymore.
the scorpion king was a highly touted blockbuster film, and part of the overwhelmingly successful mummy franchise. It was a while ago and The Rock hasn't had a real hit since. The Rundown was supposed to be a big action flick that fared decent on theatrical release. It has enough recognition to be a big video hit, as Walking Tall might. Still, I don't think Walking Tall is going to perform that great.
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  #222  
Old 03-29-2004, 07:39 PM
Let's not forget that it's going to be a crowded weekend. You've got the second weekend of four wide releases, three of which found an audience and one of which is expanding. The Passion of the Christ is still doing very well. And then there's four new wide releases this weekend, two of which target the same audience. Chances are they won't all be big hits, and Hellboy has to be considered the frontrunner. I've got to say, though, that MGM has to be thrilled with Universal's DVD release date for The Rundown.
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  #223  
Old 03-29-2004, 07:47 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by EDsoulsurvive*
the scorpion king was a highly touted blockbuster film, and part of the overwhelmingly successful mummy franchise. It was a while ago and The Rock hasn't had a real hit since. The Rundown was supposed to be a big action flick that fared decent on theatrical release. It has enough recognition to be a big video hit, as Walking Tall might. Still, I don't think Walking Tall is going to perform that great.
I can see where you're coming from with that. But I can still hope for the best that Walking Tall opens at least in second (I've always questioned why they would put it against Hellboy). It is a crowded weekend indeed. This should be interesting.
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  #224  
Old 03-29-2004, 07:50 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by Mr. Fred Krueger
I can see where you're coming from with that. But I can still hope for the best that Walking Tall opens at least in second (I've always questioned why they would put it against Hellboy). It is a crowded weekend indeed. This should be interesting.
yeah, I am actually already anticipating how this weekend turns out.
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  #225  
Old 03-29-2004, 07:50 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by Mr. Fred Krueger
I honestly don't see Home on the Range making a whole lot of money. Granted it's a kid movie, but animation not done digitally (a la Finding Nemo) just doesn't do as well anymore.
It's not because they are done in 2D, it's because they are giving their 2D movies crappy stories and unengaging characters. That's why Lilo was a hit and Final Fantasy shut down a studio.
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  #226  
Old 03-29-2004, 07:51 PM
Hellboy - 23 million
Home On The Range - 18 million
Walking Tall - 14 million
The Prince And Me - 4 million
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  #227  
Old 03-31-2004, 07:08 PM
1) Hellboy-$31.8 million; Week 1
2) Home on the Range-$14.7 million; Week 1
3) Walking Tall-$13.5 million; Week 1
4) Scooby-Doo 2: Monsters Unleashed-$11.2 million; -62.1%; Week 2
5) The Passion of the Christ-$9 million; -28.3%; Week 6
6) The Ladykillers-$8.4 million; -33.8%; Week 2
7) Jersey Girl-$6.4 million; -23.3%; Week 2
8) Dawn of the Dead-$6.2 million; -42%; Week 3
9) Taking Lives-$3.9 million; -40.3%; Week 3
10) Starsky and Hutch-$3.8 million; -39.4%; Week 5
11) Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind-$3.7 million; -30.5%; Week 3
12) Hidalgo-$3.5 million; -34.2%; Week 5
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  #228  
Old 03-31-2004, 08:09 PM
1) HELLBOY - $31.2 million
2) HOME ON THE RANGE - $19.7 million
3) SCOOBY-DOO 2: MONSTERS UNLEASHED - $17.8 million
4) WALKING TALL - $14.4 million
5) THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST - $9.9 million
6) THE LADYKILLERS - $8.6 million
7) JERSEY GIRL - $6.9 million
8) THE PRINCE AND ME - $5.9 million
9) TAKING LIVES - $4.7 million
10) STARSKY & HUTCH - $4.1 million
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  #229  
Old 04-01-2004, 02:19 AM
I was thinking Hellboy would open up with about 30 mill, but it was recently brought to my attention that some local theaters have already sold out some showings(!) early on Friday.

I'll guess a low-40 million number. Say.....41 million.
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  #230  
Old 04-01-2004, 08:06 PM
1) Hellboy-$31.8 million; Week 1
2) Home on the Range-$14.7 million; Week 1
3) Walking Tall-$13.5 million; Week 1
4) Scooby-Doo 2: Monsters Unleashed-$11.2 million; -62.1%; Week 2
5) The Passion of the Christ-$9 million; -28.3%; Week 6
6) The Ladykillers-$8.4 million; -33.8%; Week 2
7) Jersey Girl-$6.4 million; -23.3%; Week 2
8) Dawn of the Dead-$6.2 million; -42%; Week 3
9) The Prince and Me-$5.7 million; Week 1
10) Taking Lives-$3.9 million; -40.3%; Week 3
11) Starsky and Hutch-$3.8 million; -39.4%; Week 5
12) Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind-$3.7 million; -30.5%; Week 3
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  #231  
Old 04-01-2004, 11:01 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by Jon Lyrik

2) Home on the Range-$14.7 million; Week 1
NOT a chance. I expect at the very least, spot #6.
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  #232  
Old 04-02-2004, 12:57 AM
Hellboy - $28 Million
Home On The Range - $13 Million
Walking Tall - $11 Million
The Prince And Me - $5 Million
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  #233  
Old 04-02-2004, 03:52 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by Tuukka
Althought Hellboy is having really good buzz, I think it will struggle to reach outside the geek audience. It will probably have good legs, thought.

18 million opening. 70 million finish.
RE:

With the good reviews and increasingly strong buzz for Hellboy, I think I have to raise my prediction. I think it be more frontloaded than I originally thought.

25 opening. 80 million finish.
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  #234  
Old 04-02-2004, 05:46 AM
Time for some revision:

Home on the Range - $18 M
Hellboy - $28 M
The Prince and Me - $8 M
Walking Tall - $14 M
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  #235  
Old 04-02-2004, 01:31 PM
Well after almost being exactly right on Scooby Doo 2 and being almost completely wrong on everything else time to predict this week

1. Hellboy $32.6 million
2. Walking Tall $19.5 million
3. Scooby Doo 2: $14.6 million
4. Home On The Range $ 13.1 million
5. The Passion Of The Christ: $9.2 million
6. Ladykillers: $8.7 million
7. The Prince And Me $7.9 million
8. Dawn Of The Dead: $ 6.4 million
9. Jersey Girl: 5.9 million
10. Taking Lives $3.2 million
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  #236  
Old 04-02-2004, 02:56 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by Tuukka
RE:

With the good reviews and increasingly strong buzz for Hellboy, I think I have to raise my prediction. I think it be more frontloaded than I originally thought.

25 opening. 80 million finish.
i gotta agree with you. The buzz seems like it has built in the past few days and the reviews are surprisingly good.
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  #237  
Old 04-03-2004, 10:25 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by Lynn Minmei
NOT a chance. I expect at the very least, spot #6.
But it is over spot #6.
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  #238  
Old 04-03-2004, 11:16 AM
THEATER COUNTS FOR 4/9/04

NEW RELEASES

The Alamo (Dennis Quaid) - 2500 theaters
The Whole Ten Yards (Bruce Willis) - 2400+ theaters
The Girl Next Door - 2300+ theaters
Ella Enchanted - 1200 theaters
Johnson Family Vacation - 1200 theaters (opens Wednesday)
I'm Not Scared - 10 theaters

SNEAK PREVIEWS

13 Going On 30 (Jennifer Garner) - 1000+ theaters (Saturday)

------------------

I seriously think that this year has had more sneak previews than any other year in recent memory. And it's only April! We have had sneaks of Win A Date With Tad Hamilton, Miracle, Welcome To Mooseport, Starsky & Hutch, The Girl Next Door, Taking Lives, The Prince And Me, Walking Tall and now 13 Going On 30. Not a bad thing by any means though.

I think THE ALAMO is gonna be one of the biggest disappointments of the year, and that THE GIRL NEXT DOOR will surprise with a #1 opening.
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  #239  
Old 04-03-2004, 11:20 AM
The Alamo doesn't have any buzz does it? It was building all this momentum before the original December release, and then the delay to April just killed it. I agree that it could be a major disappointment. I remember seeing a lot of trailers and what not before the December date, but I see hardly anything now. There doesn't seen to be a lot of interest in it at the moment.
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  #240  
Old 04-03-2004, 11:54 AM
Let's see if I can do it even worse :

The Alamo - $15 M
The Whole Ten Yards - $10 M
The Girl Next Door - $22 M
Ella Enchanted - $8 M
Johnson Family Vacation - $10 M (5 days)
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