#281  
Old 04-20-2004, 04:32 PM
13 Going On 30 - $20 M
Man On Fire - $19 M
Reply With Quote
  #282  
Old 04-20-2004, 05:44 PM
13 Going On 30 - 18 million
Man On Fire - 22 million
Reply With Quote
  #283  
Old 04-20-2004, 05:48 PM
13 Going on 30 - 23 Million
Man On Fire - 18 Million
Reply With Quote
  #284  
Old 04-20-2004, 06:40 PM
13 Going on 30 - 24 Million
Man on Fire - 18.5 Million
Kill Bill Volume 2 - 16.5 Million
Reply With Quote
  #285  
Old 04-20-2004, 10:28 PM
13 Going on 30-$22 million
Man on Fire-$21.2 million
Reply With Quote
  #286  
Old 04-21-2004, 09:44 AM
1. Man on Fire - $19 Million
2. Kill Bill, Vol. 2 - $17 Million
3. 13 Going on 30 - $13 Million
4. The Punisher - $11 Million
5. Johnson Family Vacation - $5 Million
Reply With Quote
  #287  
Old 04-21-2004, 03:55 PM
13 Going On 30 - $25 Million
Man On Fire - $16 Million
Reply With Quote
  #288  
Old 04-21-2004, 04:07 PM
#1.Kill Bill V.2-$16 Mill
#2.Man on Fire- $11 Mill
#3.13 Going on 30-$10 Mill
#4.Punisher-$8 Mill
#5.Johnson Famil Vacation-7.5 Mill
Reply With Quote
  #289  
Old 04-21-2004, 09:42 PM
Man on Fire - $22 million
13 Going on 30 - $20 million
Kill Bill Volume 2 - $14.5 million
The Punisher - $7.5 million
Reply With Quote
  #290  
Old 04-22-2004, 09:20 PM
1) 13 Going on 30-$29 million; Week 1
2) Man on Fire-$21.2 million; Week 1
3) Kill Bill: Vol. 2-$13.6 million; -45.8%; Week 2
4) The Punisher-$6 million; -56.7%; Week 2
5) Johnson Family Vacation-$3.8 million; -36.2%; Week 3
6) Hellboy-$3.8 million; -33.1%; Week 4
7) Home on the Range-$3.5 million; -36.9%; Week 4
8) Ella Enchanted-$3 million; -29.2%; Week 3
9) Scooby-Doo 2: Monsters Unleashed-$3 million; -43.5%; Week 5
10) Walking Tall-$2.5 million; -45.5%; Week 4
11) The Prince and Me-$2 million; -40.3%; Week 4
12) The Passion of the Christ-$1.9 million; -53.9%; Week 9

I don't see Clifford's Really Big Movie doing well at all. I can see a Veggietales Movie-like PTA being somewhat possible, but probably a Spartan-like PTA. No ads at all.
Reply With Quote
  #291  
Old 04-23-2004, 09:30 AM
13 Going On 30- $16 Million
Man On Fire- $14.7 Million
Reply With Quote
  #292  
Old 04-23-2004, 03:44 PM
Kill Bill - 15 Million
Man on Fire - 19 Million
13 Going on 30 - 25 Million

edited to say 13 going on 30 will make 26+ million

Last edited by EDsoulsurvive*; 04-23-2004 at 10:11 PM..
Reply With Quote
  #293  
Old 04-25-2004, 03:03 PM
1. Envy- $22.7 million
2. Mean Girls- $19.9 million
3. Man on Fire- $16.1 million
4. 13 Going on 30- $14.5 million
5. Laws of Attraction- $11.8 million
6. Kill Bill: Volume 2- $6.2 million
7. Godsend- $6.0 million
8. The Punisher- $3.6 million
9. Home on the Range- $2.5 million
10. The Johnson Family Vacation- $2.1 million
Reply With Quote
  #294  
Old 04-25-2004, 03:12 PM
Envy-$8 million
Mean Girls-$13 million
Godsend-$9 million
Laws of Attraction-$5 million
Bobby Jones: Stroke of Genius-$2.4 million

This weekend is rather crowded, so I might really lower some of these later on.
Reply With Quote
  #295  
Old 04-25-2004, 04:51 PM
Zeppelin, you think the top 5 movies next weekend are going to make over $85 million? That will never happen. It will be surprising if there are more than two movies at $15 million or more for the weekend. It's crowded, many are goiing for the same audience, and as popular as Black and Stiller are, Envy has pretty bad buzz and little to no audience interest.
Reply With Quote
  #296  
Old 04-25-2004, 04:54 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by MadsenOMC
as popular as Black and Stiller are, Envy has pretty bad buzz and little to no audience interest.
I agree. Not to mention this has been delayed more often than Pluto Nash at Destination Studios.
Reply With Quote
  #297  
Old 04-25-2004, 06:26 PM
I think Mean Girls will fare the best out of the new releases probably high teens range.
Reply With Quote
  #298  
Old 04-25-2004, 08:52 PM
ESTIMATED THEATER COUNTS FOR 4/30/04

Mean Girls (Lindsay Lohan) - 2700 theaters
Laws Of Attraction (Pierce Brosnan) - 2600 theaters
Envy - 2400 theaters
Godsend - 2100+ theaters
Bobby Jones: Stroke Of Genius - 1200+ theaters

I think MEAN GIRLS is REALLY going to surprise. There has been a lot of positive buzz and everyone I know wants to see it. I think it will open with $17-19 million, maybe even more.

I'll post my other predictions later.
Reply With Quote
  #299  
Old 04-25-2004, 09:52 PM
This year, there have been a ton of movies similar to Mean Girls, at least in terms of the target audience, if not necessarily the story. They've pretty much all opened in the $6 million to $11 million range. What makes this one any different, especially in a crowded weekend? What does it have that the others don't that will raise it to a high teens opening? I don't think Lohan on her own is enough.
Reply With Quote
  #300  
Old 04-26-2004, 06:01 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by MadsenOMC
This year, there have been a ton of movies similar to Mean Girls, at least in terms of the target audience, if not necessarily the story. They've pretty much all opened in the $6 million to $11 million range. What makes this one any different, especially in a crowded weekend? What does it have that the others don't that will raise it to a high teens opening? I don't think Lohan on her own is enough.
It has so much more going for it than the other teen comedies this year (even the superb The Girl Next Door). Here are a few of the reasons why it will succeed.

- A great advertising campaign that emphasizes the movie's humor.

- A rising young star along with a respected comedienne.

- EXCELLENT advance buzz

- A PG-13 rating

- Contrary to what other people are saying, Mean Girls DOES NOT look like Lohan's previous film, Confessions Of A Teenage Drama Queen. That movie was a family film, no question about that. It had a PG rating and was made by Disney. This is a dark teen comedy that shows the bad things about high school and doesn't sugarcoat it as much as COATDQ.
Reply With Quote
  #301  
Old 04-26-2004, 06:12 PM
I don't think that it's going to bomb or be unsuccessful. I'm just wondering why people are predicting an opening in the $15-$20 million range. I don't think the buzz can be classified as excellent. Is there some positive buzz? Yes, a little. But let's not overstate it. It's not exactly excellent or anything like that. Also, most of what you listed, the other movies had, too. A rising young star. The friendly rating. So, I'm not sure those answer my question. Plus, Tina Fey is not a box office draw. I'm still skeptical about this one opening to anything more than $10-$12 million. It's such a crowded weekend.
Reply With Quote
  #302  
Old 04-26-2004, 06:50 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by MadsenOMC
I don't think that it's going to bomb or be unsuccessful. I'm just wondering why people are predicting an opening in the $15-$20 million range. I don't think the buzz can be classified as excellent. Is there some positive buzz? Yes, a little. But let's not overstate it. It's not exactly excellent or anything like that. Also, most of what you listed, the other movies had, too. A rising young star. The friendly rating. So, I'm not sure those answer my question. Plus, Tina Fey is not a box office draw. I'm still skeptical about this one opening to anything more than $10-$12 million. It's such a crowded weekend.
You do have some points, and I do agree that Tina Fey is not a box office draw, but look at recent teen films and their stats:

The Girl Next Door
Rising Young Star(s): Elisha Cuthbert, Emile Hirsch
Rated: R
Opening Weekend: $6 million

13 Going On 30
Rising Young Star(s): Jennifer Garner, Mark Ruffalo
Rated: PG-13
Opening Weekend: $22 million

The Prince And Me
Rising Young Star(s): Julia Stiles
Rated: PG
Opening Weekend: $9 million

Eurotrip
Rising Young Star(s): NONE
Rated: R
Opening Weekend: $7 million

The recent teen films have been mixed bags in terms of ratings, but ones with family-friendly ratings have been much more successful.
Reply With Quote
  #303  
Old 04-26-2004, 07:28 PM
I don't think there has been a "raunchy" (ill use the term lightly in this case) and sexified PG-13 high school movie in quite some time. I don't actually remebber the last one, most teen Pgs as of late have been romantic comedies. This is a nice change of pase. Also, Lohan has a big fanbase, being the tween star she is. Although some of her younger fans might not be allowed to see this, I think the great ad campains are will gain an older teen audience.
Reply With Quote
  #304  
Old 04-26-2004, 11:07 PM
The ones with family ratings have definitely been more successful. But with the exception of 13 Going on 30, they haven't done all that well. Chasing Liberty, Win a Date with Tad Hamilton, Confessions of a Teenage Drama Queen, The Prince and Me, Ella Enchanted. All opened in the $6-$10 million range. All have rising stars and/or fairly recognizable names in them. Then, you have this insanely crowded weekend. Envy, Godsend, Mean Girls, Laws of Attraction and Bobby Jones: Stroke of Genius. What do all five have in common? A rating of PG or PG-13. Combine them with the second weekends of Man on Fire and 13 Going on 30. There's not enough $ to go around, unless it's an unusually good weekend at the box office. Sure, it could break out and make $15 million or more. I just don't think it will. I'd say the odds are against it.
Reply With Quote
  #305  
Old 04-27-2004, 01:11 AM
Godsend - 10 million
Mean Girls - 13 million
Envy - 5 million (I think it looks terrible and it will do similar business as Duplex did.)
Laws Of Attraction - 6 million
Bobby Jones: Stroke Of Genius - 1 million (Uh, what the hell is this)
Reply With Quote
  #306  
Old 04-27-2004, 11:40 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by MadsenOMC
The ones with family ratings have definitely been more successful. But with the exception of 13 Going on 30, they haven't done all that well. Chasing Liberty, Win a Date with Tad Hamilton, Confessions of a Teenage Drama Queen, The Prince and Me, Ella Enchanted. All opened in the $6-$10 million range. All have rising stars and/or fairly recognizable names in them. Then, you have this insanely crowded weekend. Envy, Godsend, Mean Girls, Laws of Attraction and Bobby Jones: Stroke of Genius. What do all five have in common? A rating of PG or PG-13. Combine them with the second weekends of Man on Fire and 13 Going on 30. There's not enough $ to go around, unless it's an unusually good weekend at the box office. Sure, it could break out and make $15 million or more. I just don't think it will. I'd say the odds are against it.
every film you named is a romantic comedy (Liberty, Tad, Prince) or an all out kid flick (Confessions, Ella). This is the first teen sex comedy that actual teens can see. While I do fully realized its not completely a sex comedy, it is moreso than any film mentioned in ur post. This unique-ness is why I think this film will open well.
Reply With Quote
  #307  
Old 04-27-2004, 01:16 PM
Mean Girls - $9 M
Laws Of Attraction - $9 M
Envy - $8 M
Godsend - $9.5 M
Bobby Jones: Stroke Of Genius - $1.5 M
Reply With Quote
  #308  
Old 04-27-2004, 03:03 PM
Godsend - $11 Million
Mean Girls - $10 Million
Envy - $7 Million
Laws Of Attraction - $6 Million
Bobby Jones: Stroke Of Genius - $2 Million
Reply With Quote
  #309  
Old 04-27-2004, 05:45 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by EDsoulsurvive*
every film you named is a romantic comedy (Liberty, Tad, Prince) or an all out kid flick (Confessions, Ella). This is the first teen sex comedy that actual teens can see. While I do fully realized its not completely a sex comedy, it is moreso than any film mentioned in ur post. This unique-ness is why I think this film will open well.
What he said.

By the way, The Prince And Me is technically a hit. It made more than its budget and WAY more than most were expecting.
Reply With Quote
  #310  
Old 04-27-2004, 06:31 PM
Yeah The Prince and Me did fairly well. I didn't mean to imply that it was a bomb. All of these movies will do OK in the long run, even if they open weak, because they don't cost much to make and usually do well on video. I still don't see Mean Girls opening in the high teens, unless Lohan has a huge following that rushes out to see this, which I suppose could happen.
Reply With Quote
  #311  
Old 04-27-2004, 07:45 PM
Openers:

Mean Girls $ 13.5 million
Laws Of Attraction $ 7 million
Godsend $ 6.5 million
Envy $ 4 million
Bobby Jones $ 1.5 million

Holdovers:

13 Going On 30 $ 16.8 million
Man On Fire $ 15.8 million
Kill Bill Volume 2 $ 6.6 million
The Punisher $ 3.1 million
Reply With Quote
  #312  
Old 04-27-2004, 08:58 PM
1) 13 Going on 30-$15 million; -28.7%; Week 2
2) Man on Fire-$14.9 million; -34.4%; Week 2
3) Mean Girls-$13.5 million; Week 1
4) Godsend-$9.5 million; Week 1
5) Envy-$6.8 million; Week 1
6) Laws of Attraction-$5.8 million; Week 1
7) Kill Bill: Vol. 2-$5.5 million; -47.1%; Week 3
8) The Punisher-$3.5 million; -44.1%; Week 3
9) Home on the Range-$2.3 million; -36.3%; Week 5
10) Scooby-Doo 2: Monsters Unleashed-$2.2 million; -34.7%; Week 6
11) Bobby Jones: Stroke of Genius-$2.1 million; Week 1
12) Ella Enchanted-$2.1 million; -30.7%; Week 4
Reply With Quote
  #313  
Old 04-28-2004, 07:20 AM
Don't know , i see 13 and Fire dropping ore than that , maybe the traditional 50 per or so , because are these two films really blowing enough people away to hold up so well in the second weekend , don't hink so . Fire has those tiring visuals that excite a couple of people for a week or two then it dies , 13 looks dreadful , and the young girls (m the primary audience ) who have seen it will now check out mean girls instead , although that one looks even more dreadful .


16 mil for mean underage sexpots , 9 mil for 13 , and 7.5 for Fire .

Godsend , don't know , doubt any youngin's will want to see it looks like adult fare , disturbing , but somewhat intriguing adult fare , so maybe that one can do some damage 10 mil .
Reply With Quote
  #314  
Old 04-28-2004, 04:41 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by dellamorte dellamore
[B]Don't know , i see 13 and Fire dropping ore than that , maybe the traditional 50 per or so , because are these two films really blowing enough people away to hold up so well in the second weekend , don't hink so . Fire has those tiring visuals that excite a couple of people for a week or two then it dies , 13 looks dreadful , and the young girls (m the primary audience ) who have seen it will now check out mean girls instead , although that one looks even more dreadful .
I don't think so. Both Man on Fire and 13 Going on 30 have good WOM (the former not having good reviews). I will probably lower my predictions, though. I wouldn't be surprised if Bobby Jones makes $0.8 million.
Reply With Quote
  #315  
Old 04-28-2004, 04:50 PM
But nowadays it seems like even movies with good reviews and good word of mouth don't hold well. Everyone rushes out to see it opening weekend and every weekend is so crowded. A 40% drop is probably a huge success these days. I would expect that Man on Fire and 13 Going on 30 will both drop by at least that much, unless one happens to break the trend.
Reply With Quote
  #316  
Old 04-28-2004, 05:06 PM
1) Man on Fire-$13.5 million; -40.6%; Week 2
2) Mean Girls-$13.5 million; Week 1
3) 13 Going on 30-$12.7 million; -39.5%; Week 2
4) Godsend-$9.5 million; Week 1
5) Envy-$6.8 million; Week 1
6) Laws of Attraction-$5.8 million; Week 1
7) Kill Bill: Vol. 2-$5.5 million; -47.1%; Week 3
8) The Punisher-$3.5 million; -44.1%; Week 3
9) Home on the Range-$2.3 million; -36.3%; Week 5
10) Scooby-Doo 2: Monsters Unleashed-$2.2 million; -34.7%; Week 6
11) Ella Enchanted-$2.1 million; -30.7%; Week 4
12) Hellboy-$1.9 million; -38.8%; Week 5

Revised predictions.

I don't see around 40% being a bad drop at all for last weekend's movies. Training Day dropped 40.6% on it's second weekend and made $76 million, and Freaky Friday dropped close to 40% on it's second weekend. 13 Going on 30 won't get FF's money, due to lack of summer weekdays, competition, and not having a Wednesday release, but it's not like a 40% drop will be bad. The totals should still be in the $70-80 million range.

13 Going on 30 total-$71 million
Man on Fire-$75 million

Last edited by Jon Lyrik; 04-28-2004 at 05:08 PM..
Reply With Quote
  #317  
Old 04-28-2004, 05:15 PM
I wasn't saying that 40% is a bad drop or something to look down upon. I just meant that it seems to be the standard for a good or bad drop. Anything at that level or below is a good hold, and once you start climbing above it, it's not a good hold.
Reply With Quote
  #318  
Old 04-28-2004, 07:15 PM
1) Man on Fire-$12.5 million
2) 13 Going on 30-$12 million
3) Mean Girls-$11 million
4) Laws of Attraction-$10 million
5) Godsend-$8 million
6) Kill Bill Vol. 2-$5.5 million
7) Envy-$5 million

I sense next to zero interest in Godsend and Envy. Laws of Attraction isn't supposed to be very good, but I think that viewers over age 35, especially women, will go and see it because of the two leads and the premise.
Reply With Quote
  #319  
Old 04-28-2004, 07:23 PM
MY FINAL PREDICTIONS

1) Mean Girls - $16.5 million
2) 13 Going On 30 - $14.7 million
3) Man On Fire - $11.9 million
4) Laws Of Attraction - $9.1 million
5) Godsend - $8.5 million
6) Envy - $7.6 million
7) Kill Bill: Volume Two - $6.1 million
8) The Punisher - $3.9 million
9) Bobby Jones: Stroke Of Genius - $3.1 million
10) Home On The Range - $2.9 million
Reply With Quote
  #320  
Old 04-28-2004, 07:43 PM
to get more realistic, I have noticed that I always predict movies I want to see as doing well. While I still have little doubt Mean Girls will do well, I see it opening to 15 as compared to high teens.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump