#4121  
Old 07-21-2008, 04:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
Like I said $550 million is a LONG shot. It will most definitely cross $400 million. Mark my words.
I don't disagree that it will cross $400 million.
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  #4122  
Old 07-21-2008, 07:33 PM
I'm not disputing the chances it has to cross 400 either , but 500 is pushing it . We'll have a better idea when we see Monday's numbers . I still think it could face some minor competition on it's way to 400 , i wouldn't totally discount Step Bros or X Files , although i don't think they will affect Tdk that much , maybe just enough to slow it down somewhat . Step could be considered more counterprogramming and X Files may be a nice alternative for people who don't want to see Tdk again ( or don't care to see it at all ) , i know , they are out there , believe or not .

Who knows , maybe both films bomb and batman totally rules the roost again , but i imagine at least one of those films does well .
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  #4123  
Old 07-21-2008, 08:03 PM
Step Brothers is definitely going to do well. Don't let the failure of Semi-Pro at the box-office confuse you. It was released during a weak time of the box-office year, it was R rated (I know, so is Step Brothers but hold on), and its plot wasn't as appealing as most of Ferrell's films. I mean, how many films about basketball end up becoming smash hits? Especially basketball comedies? Step Brothers has been marketed EXTREMELY well, and I think it will appeal to a much wider audience. I think it will open to at least $30 million.

As for X-Files, I'm not sure. I'll have to see some better tracking and predictions before I call my shot on that one.
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  #4124  
Old 07-21-2008, 08:23 PM
I really want the X-Files to do well so that they can do another movie that will continue the mythology.
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  #4125  
Old 07-22-2008, 09:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
Don't let the failure of Semi-Pro at the box-office confuse you. It was released during a weak time of the box-office year, it was R rated (I know, so is Step Brothers but hold on), and its plot wasn't as appealing as most of Ferrell's films. I mean, how many films about basketball end up becoming smash hits? Especially basketball comedies?
Said with the full benefit of hindsight. You did predict a $30 million opening for Semi-Pro after all.
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  #4126  
Old 07-22-2008, 11:53 AM
Don't underestimate the X-files fanbase. I think it will make a good 20 to 30 million opening weekend.
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  #4127  
Old 07-22-2008, 11:59 AM
That's what i'm thinking , i don't know if it can make more though . 35 mil is a possibility , so i'll round it off and go with 32 mil .
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  #4128  
Old 07-22-2008, 12:01 PM
The X Files opened to over $30 million in less than 2,700 theaters. In 1998. Has the fan base shrunk that much over the years? The sequel will be playing in 3,100 theaters and ticket prices are much higher. I can't imagine it opening to less than the first one.
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  #4129  
Old 07-22-2008, 12:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MadsenOMC View Post
You did predict a $30 million opening for Semi-Pro after all.
Yeah, as did most people. I guess in the end, the release date, lack of appeal, and R rating really had a large affect on it. I just can't see the same thing happening to Step Brothers. Better release date, lots of appeal, and released during a time of the year when R rated comedies usually do pretty well.

As for The X-Files, I don't think it really has a chance of beating Step Brothers. Tracking so far for X-Files is quite low.
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  #4130  
Old 07-22-2008, 12:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MadsenOMC View Post
The X Files opened to over $30 million in less than 2,700 theaters. In 1998. Has the fan base shrunk that much over the years? The sequel will be playing in 3,100 theaters and ticket prices are much higher. I can't imagine it opening to less than the first one.
Okay , then 37 mil .
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  #4131  
Old 07-22-2008, 12:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
Yeah, as did most people. I guess in the end, the release date, lack of appeal, and R rating really had a large affect on it. I just can't see the same thing happening to Step Brothers. Better release date, lots of appeal, and released during a time of the year when R rated comedies usually do pretty well.

As for The X-Files, I don't think it really has a chance of beating Step Brothers. Tracking so far for X-Files is quite low.
X-Files is opening in about 300 more theaters and has a PG-13 rating. Don't underestimate it.
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  #4132  
Old 07-22-2008, 12:14 PM
What is the tracking anyway , i still don't know except that it's someone else making a prediction , but based on what , is it a formal survey or something ?
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  #4133  
Old 07-22-2008, 12:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MadsenOMC View Post
X-Files is opening in about 300 more theaters and has a PG-13 rating. Don't underestimate it.
I get what you're saying, but I just can't see it. Not with direct competition in The Dark Knight in its way. And how many kids around the age of 13-16 were old enough to experience the X-Files when it was on TV? If anything, those kids will go see TDK, or try to find a way to see Step Brothers.
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  #4134  
Old 07-22-2008, 12:18 PM
If this summer has proved anything, it's that there is plenty of box office to go around. On many weekends over the last few months numerous films have succeeded at the same time. There will be an audience for X-Files 2 & Stepbrothers even as TDK has a strong second weekend.
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  #4135  
Old 07-22-2008, 12:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MadsenOMC View Post
If this summer has proved anything, it's that there is plenty of box office to go around. On many weekends over the last few months numerous films have succeeded at the same time. There will be an audience for X-Files 2 & Stepbrothers even as TDK has a strong second weekend.
But as we saw this weekend Hellboy II was completely robbed by The Dark Knight. X-Files isn't a superhero film but it is aimed toward a similar audience. The first X-Files film did well because it was released while the series was still hot and airing. 10 years later, with massive competition in its face (not to mention it will be tremendously front-loaded regardless of how it does opening weekend) I just can't see it being a hit and beating Step Brothers.
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  #4136  
Old 07-22-2008, 12:55 PM
Its second weekend drop is an entirely different story. I'm not talking about its legs or total box office potential. Just the opening weekend. A lot of movies have been based on TV shows that haven't aired in decades, and they still did well at the box office. That doesn't matter.

Hellboy II would have dropped a lot regardless of TDK.
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  #4137  
Old 07-22-2008, 01:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MadsenOMC View Post
Hellboy II would have dropped a lot regardless of TDK.
But not 70%. Probably 50-55%.

I can't quite predict the numbers right now, but my final prediction is that Step Brothers will beat X-Files.
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  #4138  
Old 07-22-2008, 01:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
I can't quite predict the numbers right now, but my final prediction is that Step Brothers will beat X-Files.
If the tracking is accurate, you will be right. Right now neither one is tracking well.
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  #4139  
Old 07-22-2008, 01:08 PM
I agree about H2 , although i felt it would have held on a bit better , it prob would have dropped hard even if Tdk wasn't around , but i don't think it would have dropped that hard , Bourne is right , it's the same audience , and that audience was satisfied opening weekend , it was time to move on to the main event .

This next weekend is very curious , a comic book movie in it's second weekend , a " sci fi " film based on a tv series that has a loyal fanbase , and a goofy looking Will Ferrel offering . You got me on this one .

I'll just take a stab ( no that wasn't a Joker pun )

Tdk - 67 mil ( i don't know if it wil drop more than 50 per , but i'm thinking it was slightly frontloaded because of the fanboys )

X Files - 37 mil ( the secrecy surrounding this film can work to its advantage much like Cloverfield )

Step Bros - 32 mil ( looks dumb enough to snag 30 plus )

MM - 19 mil ( i think it can keep a decent size of it's audience )
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  #4140  
Old 07-22-2008, 02:14 PM
$24,493,313 Monday take for TDK. Total climbs to $182,904,796 (!) in just four days.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

Last edited by Worthystevens; 07-22-2008 at 02:16 PM..
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  #4141  
Old 07-22-2008, 02:16 PM
Yep. Well on its way to $400 million, and it could go much further than that.
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  #4142  
Old 07-22-2008, 02:25 PM
What's even more amazing about that number, is that if you look at last Monday's numbers... most of the top 10 movies dropped over half of their earnings from the Sunday before.

TDK only dropped 43% from Sunday, and had the biggest weekend opening of all time. Holy shit.
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  #4143  
Old 07-22-2008, 04:45 PM
re 25 mill for TDK on Monday..

So, you're saying that 220 million by this Friday might be an UNDER-estimate?

re x-files

I declare myself as a proud x-phile, I was a BIG fan of the TV show, and I thought that "fight the future" was a decent film. However, as someone whose plugged into the x-files fan base, trust me when I say that the x-files has jumped the shark for a lot of us, myself included. I'll probably check this out on DVD, but I think I'll skip it in theatres.
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  #4144  
Old 07-22-2008, 08:10 PM
The Dark Knight just under $24.5 million on a monday. First time EVER that a movie did $20 million or more on a non holiday monday. WOW. Already owns the 3,4 and 5 day openings (yes, 5 as well) and will own all the way up to 10 days. Amazing! The Amazing Dark Knight! It should break the records for fastest to $200 and $300 million as well
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  #4145  
Old 07-23-2008, 03:23 AM
With or without Nolan, im sure the Warner is planning Batman 3,4, 5, and 6 as we speak.
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  #4146  
Old 07-23-2008, 04:16 AM
I still have a bad feeling about the X-Files but it will open to around 30 million or so which isn't bad for a show that ended so poorly IMHO. The last 2 seasons were mediocre at best and the series finale was pure garbage.
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  #4147  
Old 07-23-2008, 08:06 AM
comingsoon.net predictions

1. The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) $74.5 million -53%

2. Step Brothers (Sony) - $28.3 million N/A

3. The X-Files: I Want to Believe (20th Century Fox) - $23.2 million N/A

4. Mamma Mia! (Universal) $15.5 million -44%

5. Journey to the Center of the Earth (New Line) $7.5 million -39%

6. Hancock (Sony) $7.4 million -47%

7. WALL*E (Pixar/Disney) - $6.0 million -40%

8. Hellboy II: The Golden Army (Universal) - $5.2 million -49%

9. Space Chimps (20th Century Fox) - $4.4 million -38%

10. Wanted (Universal) - $2.5 million -50%
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  #4148  
Old 07-23-2008, 10:57 AM
How accurate is comingsoon.net? If thats anywhere near accurate this will be the last we ever hear from Mulder. They should have made this the invasion flick all the fans have been waiting for. They could have sold that to normal viewers too with a great trailer and a few Q&A's with the cast/crew. 23 million will be a disaster.
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  #4149  
Old 07-23-2008, 11:15 AM
Yep , it's hitting 400 , 500 might still be a stretch .

I think comingsoon is lowballing X files and Step Bros , but who knows . I'm sticking with my predictions .
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  #4150  
Old 07-23-2008, 11:54 AM
Over $20 million Tuesday. Fastest to $200 million, beating the previous record by 3 days. This thing is a monster. I think it'll be knocking on the door to $300 million after this weekend.
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  #4151  
Old 07-23-2008, 12:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by optimus1 View Post
How accurate is comingsoon.net? If thats anywhere near accurate this will be the last we ever hear from Mulder. They should have made this the invasion flick all the fans have been waiting for. They could have sold that to normal viewers too with a great trailer and a few Q&A's with the cast/crew. 23 million will be a disaster.
comingsoon.net usually has the most accurate predictions. They usually have a very good idea, and I assume they use the most accurate tracking possible. Having said that, they are occasionally off on a few movies here and there (like any other person/site who predicts). I think their predictions look pretty damn good for this weekend. I'm thinking maybe two or three million more for TDK, Step Brothers, and X-Files from what they predicted.
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  #4152  
Old 07-23-2008, 12:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CyclicNightmare View Post
Over $20 million Tuesday. Fastest to $200 million, beating the previous record by 3 days. This thing is a monster. I think it'll be knocking on the door to $300 million after this weekend.
I'm thinking it will be a bit over $300 million by the end of the weekend.
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  #4153  
Old 07-23-2008, 01:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
I'm thinking it will be a bit over $300 million by the end of the weekend.
100%.

Its already over $200 mill in 5 days.

Today & Thursday : about 30-40 more
Friday, Saturday & Sunday : about 70-80 more.
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  #4154  
Old 07-23-2008, 03:05 PM
$20.9 million on Monday!
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  #4155  
Old 07-23-2008, 03:19 PM
My God, I never would have expected TDK to be the juggernaut that it's become. After Begins crawled to $200 million, I suspected TDK would walk away with $230 million at best. Wow, is all I can say. Warner Bros. has officially found their "Spider-man"-like franchise.
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  #4156  
Old 07-23-2008, 03:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Fred Krueger View Post
Warner Bros. has officially found their "Spider-man"-like franchise.
Only better. WAY, WAY better.
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  #4157  
Old 07-23-2008, 04:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Box Office Prophets
http://www.boxofficeprophets.com/col...columnID=10826

Also, if we get a bit more ambitious, there exists the possibility that not only will The Dark Knight have the best second weekend ever (it seems certain to smash Shrek 2's current record of $72,170,363), it may even cross $100 million a second time. This could happen. I think that's ambitious, probably overly so, but I refuse to rule anything out with this project. All of the free news cycles involving its shattering of box office records add fuel to the demand. As for Titanic, it's still early yet. Only two movies have earned $450+ million and I'm not ceding Titanic's record until The Dark Knight has at least passed Star Wars' $461.0 million first. Having said that, the idea does not sound anywhere near as crazy as it did on Sunday. $45 million in box office on Monday and Tuesday changes its outlook a bit from its already lofty standing as the biggest opener of all-time. Clearly, the high level of demand for this product has not been met yet, giving it a chance at standing at $320 million after only ten days or so. We have no point for comparison for a blockbuster performing this well this fast. It is historically unprecedented.
I know it's a long shot, but can you imagine if this actually happened? Holy shit.
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  #4158  
Old 07-23-2008, 04:13 PM
If it makes $100 million this weekend (which is still HIGHLY unlikely), then I wouldn't doubt it comes close to surpassing Titanic's epic record.
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  #4159  
Old 07-23-2008, 04:29 PM
Account for inflation on the Titanic thing.

If u wanna go by ticket sales adjusted for inflation TITANIC would have made about $886,359,440 in the US alone.

I find it funny that Tim Burtons Batman movie would have made $433,127,772 as well. That makes it by far the most profitable Batman movie so far, with THE DARK KNIGHT looking to steal its crown. I do find it funny that the TWO most profitable Batman movies so far both share one common thing: They both star The Joker who nearly steals every scene hes in.

Really, at this point, Warner would probably do another Batman movie even if NOBODY came back from the last two. it would suck, but they would do it.
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  #4160  
Old 07-23-2008, 05:33 PM
I don't think we should go by inflation. If a movie tops another movie's total, it has topped that movie at the box-office. Remember, when Titanic was in theatres there was no internet movie downloading, VHS releases weren't very fast, and DVD had not been properly established. Those three reasons alone are holding movies nowadays back from reaching their full potential in theatres. If The Dark Knight passes Titanic (which it most likely won't) then it will pass it fair and square. IMO of course.
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