#761  
Old 07-05-2006, 06:18 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by Mr. Fred Krueger
And I'm still wondering how the hell $108,000,000 in five days is a disappointment.
Because that is the nature of the beast. That is the state of big-budget summer films. It is a disappointment, whether you choose to believe it or not. Maybe not a disaster or fiasco, but a disappointment at the least. The studio expected more. Box office analysts expected more. It was supposed to perform better than that. The final domestic tally will only equal or slightly surpass the amount of money it cost to market the movie globally. That is not good. A $200 million final domestic gross for SR is a disappointment at best. That is not an opinion, but a fact, and anyone who objectively analyzes the movie's box office and separates it from their own opinion of the movie will say the same thing. And WOM is not going to be strong. POTC2 is going to kill it. The experts are predicting at least a 50% drop from last weekend (for three days). 50% at the least. Again, that is the nature of the beast these days for huge summer movies. And so it goes.
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  #762  
Old 07-05-2006, 06:24 PM
Pirates will definitely slaughter SR, it has no chance. The word of mouth is too low on it for making any more money. About POTC though, anyone expecting it to possibly topple Spider-Man as having the best 3-day weekend gross? I'm doubting it, but it could be a possibility.
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  #763  
Old 07-05-2006, 06:29 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by Mr. Fred Krueger


Superman Returns has pretty good word of mouth going for it, as well as good reviews. And I'm still wondering how the hell $108,000,000 in five days is a disappointment. That's normal.

But it'll make enough to be considered a success, that I have no doubt.
I agree with you 100%. There's always gonna be those who put a little too much thought into this stuff and overanalyze everything. I highly doubt that Warner Brothers would deem this any kind of failure. They knew going in what they were up against. Budget yadda yadda yadda...they just need to know that the appeal was still there for Superman and undoubtedly, there is. Bring on the sequels, baby.

As for PIRATES. Well, as I said in another thread about the summer blockbusters...it looks as tired and as boring as the first one, so that means it will be the biggest movie of the year with close to 380 million. It will have legs only because there isn't much coming out after it and everyone seems to love Johnnny Depp.
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  #764  
Old 07-05-2006, 06:35 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by Lord Raiden
I agree with you 100%. There's always gonna be those who put a little too much thought into this stuff and overanalyze everything. I highly doubt that Warner Brothers would deem this any kind of failure. They knew going in what they were up against. Budget yadda yadda yadda...they just need to know that the appeal was still there for Superman and undoubtedly, there is. Bring on the sequels, baby.
It has nothing to do with overanalyzing the numbers. It's about objectively looking at them, and they're disappointing. Try ignoring how you personally feel about the movie when looking at the BO for SR. And you can bet that WB is concerned right now. They are hoping for strong international numbers now that they know it's underperforming domestically.
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  #765  
Old 07-05-2006, 07:08 PM
I know someone very personally in the Warner Brothers marketing department and he said they got pretty much what they were expecting with SR. Despite all of the negatives about the franchise, they were hoping for a good-great but not spectacular opening weekend. I've learned many years ago to take box office numbers with a grain of salt. Some will think of SUPERMAN RETURNS as a failure and I'll call it a success any day of the week.
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  #766  
Old 07-05-2006, 08:03 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by Lord Raiden
I know someone very personally in the Warner Brothers marketing department and he said they got pretty much what they were expecting with SR. Despite all of the negatives about the franchise, they were hoping for a good-great but not spectacular opening weekend. I've learned many years ago to take box office numbers with a grain of salt. Some will think of SUPERMAN RETURNS as a failure and I'll call it a success any day of the week.
SR is not a success. Sorry, but that's a cold, hard fact. No movie that makes less than its production budget is a success. And I don't give a fuck what someone you know in the WB marketing department says. If you really do know someone in the WB marketing department, they are completely and totally full of shit. What studio actually hopes to do good-great but not spectacular?! Actually hopes for that?! They would have to be out of their minds. WB got less than what they were expecting. They were not expecting a $50 million three day opening weekend. Anyone who says that is lying and anyone who believes that is flat-out wrong. I don't think SR is a failure. I think it is a disappointment at this point, maybe worse in the long run.
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  #767  
Old 07-05-2006, 08:41 PM
I agree its a disappointment , it will end up being a nice money maker but that won't be till after dvd sales. Its made 130 million in 1 week worldwide so it will definitely end up making around 250 - 300 million before its out of theaters. That added with dvd sales will make it a profitable movie but still a disappointment especially with Singer being involved. The budget for the movie ended up at 204 million before advertising , thats not even speaking of the other money spent on the other failed attempts at making a new superman movie. All and all , definitely a disappointment and a sequel is by no means a sure thing and that alone tells you something.

Last edited by optimus1; 07-05-2006 at 08:44 PM..
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  #768  
Old 07-05-2006, 08:52 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by MadsenOMC
SR is not a success. Sorry, but that's a cold, hard fact. No movie that makes less than its production budget is a success. I don't think SR is a failure
Hmmm...Madsen seems a bit confused. First, SR isn't a success and then he doesn't think SR is a failure...

Anyways, of course it hasn't made it's production budget back. It's the first weekend. Anyone who thought the film was going to make $180 million its first weekend was setting themselves up for disappointment. WB believed the film would make $100-110 million by July 4th and it did. There's no disappointment in that. It's only a disappointment when you expect more and word from WB is that they didn't expect more than that. And I'd gladly take their word for it over someone on a Joblo internet forum, no offense.

Quote:
a sequel is by no means a sure thing and that alone tells you something.
If there's one thing Warner Bros. is good at it's trying to keep their franchises alive, no matter what. Superman obviously has appeal since it made $108 million in a week. They've been trying to get the fifth Superman made for the past 15 years and after 15 years they put out a well liked and generally well received film.

Hell, look over at Marvel's The Hulk. The film bombed at the theaters. But there's definitely going to be a Hulk 2. I have no doubts there'll be a new Superman film.

Last edited by Mr. Fred Krueger; 07-05-2006 at 09:01 PM..
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  #769  
Old 07-05-2006, 08:57 PM
So sucess and failure are the only two options? I don't see it as being so black and white. I think right now it is a disappontment, and time will tell if that changes. I am not confused about anything save for people who seem to think they are smarter than people who analyze box office numbers professionally. Can you explain that to me Mr. Krueger? Why do you think you are smarter than them? Because they believe SR is a disappointment, and I will take their word over a studio exec at WB and some dude on a joblo internet forum, no offense.
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  #770  
Old 07-05-2006, 09:12 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by MadsenOMC
So sucess and failure are the only two options? I don't see it as being so black and white. I think right now it is a disappontment, and time will tell if that changes. I am not confused about anything save for people who seem to think they are smarter than people who analyze box office numbers professionally. Can you explain that to me Mr. Krueger? Why do you think you are smarter than them? Because they believe SR is a disappointment, and I will take their word over a studio exec at WB and some dude on a joblo internet forum, no offense.
I don't think I'm smarter than people who analyze box office numbers professionally. Never once did I say that. However, not everyone is screaming out disappointment. Terms such as "easily pushing the film over the $100 million mark" (Associated Press) and the like are being used. And sure, there are a few who are using Spider-man as the bench mark, and any superhero film would be considered a disappointment when put next to that. Not every film of the genre can make $100 million in three days.

By the way, I thought I would point out that studio execs practically live the box office and study it moreso than others outside the system who analyze box office figures. They know what they're looking for, and generally execs aren't too scared to admit when a film had a disappointing opening. When a film like Superman opens better than a previous success (Batman Begins), of course they aren't going to be disappointed. They just resurrected a long dead franchise and people flocked to see it.

Too many are quick to count Superman out for the count, despite reaching $108 million ($128 million worldwide) in just under a week. Yes, Pirates of the Carribean 2 comes out this week and yes it'll be number one at the box office (though I will laugh quite heartily if it makes less than $100 million its first weekend, just to piss everyone off), but Superman is a good enough film that I believe it'll still make a nice chunk and break the $200 million mark in the box office, and go on to make a nice profit on DVD.
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  #771  
Old 07-05-2006, 09:22 PM
I think there is a difference between disaster and disappointment. I do not believe SR is a disaster. I also don't think it's fair to compare it to Spider-Man in terms of opening potential. I never did that. I didn't use that as a benchmark. It's not that I think it is out for the count either. I agree that after DVD it will probably make some money. But the fact is, it was expected to open better than it did. Not Spider-Man 2 better, but better.
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  #772  
Old 07-05-2006, 10:04 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by MadsenOMC
I think there is a difference between disaster and disappointment. I do not believe SR is a disaster. I also don't think it's fair to compare it to Spider-Man in terms of opening potential. I never did that. I didn't use that as a benchmark. It's not that I think it is out for the count either. I agree that after DVD it will probably make some money. But the fact is, it was expected to open better than it did. Not Spider-Man 2 better, but better.
Oh no, don't get me wrong Madsen. I didn't mean to suggest that you were using Spider-man as a benchmark, but others were (i.e. Brandon Gray at BOM). I guess that's fair to note a difference between disaster and disappointment, however I'm still of the opinion that it's doing well enough. But this debate'll just keep going around in circles. We'll just have to agree to disagree and just see how Superman does at the end of its run.
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  #773  
Old 07-06-2006, 04:16 AM
I think its up to personal opinion.

If u take the movie by itself, i think theres little doubt that its a success.

If u take it as a project on whole, then no, i dont think so. Warner dicked around and it cost them alot of $$$ to get this Superman to fly again.

That being said, i think they are more excited over future franchise prospects now that everything is locked and solid. I know i am.
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  #774  
Old 07-06-2006, 11:53 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by MadsenOMC
SR is not a success. Sorry, but that's a cold, hard fact. No movie that makes less than its production budget is a success. And I don't give a fuck what someone you know in the WB marketing department says. If you really do know someone in the WB marketing department, they are completely and totally full of shit. What studio actually hopes to do good-great but not spectacular?! Actually hopes for that?! They would have to be out of their minds. WB got less than what they were expecting. They were not expecting a $50 million three day opening weekend. Anyone who says that is lying and anyone who believes that is flat-out wrong. I don't think SR is a failure. I think it is a disappointment at this point, maybe worse in the long run.

Just wanted to remind you that the movie has only been out 10 days and it will make more than it's production costs. It's already halfway there and they still have to figure in international box office receipts, dvd sales, merchandising, etc. It's too soon to say it's not a success.
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  #775  
Old 07-06-2006, 11:56 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by bigd23
Just wanted to remind you that the movie has only been out 10 days and it will make more than it's production costs. It's already halfway there and they still have to figure in international box office receipts, dvd sales, merchandising, etc. It's too soon to say it's not a success.
It will not make more than its production costs. Not domestically. The domestical total will be equal to or less than the worldwide marketing costs. It might be successful down the road but it has a hill to climb, a bigger one than anyone expected.
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  #776  
Old 07-06-2006, 04:39 PM
Interesting box office analysis from David Poland yesterday:

A Hot Blog reader asked the other day, "Why haven't there been any $250 million films this year?"

Well, the easy answer is that the three massive openers this year - X-Men: The Last Stand's $102.8 million, The Da Vinci Code's $77.1, and Ice Age: The Meltdown's $68 million - led to a some of the worst overall results in history in consideration of those domestic opening levels.

Admittedly, it's a small sample. 28 films have opened over $65 million in history. For 20 of those films, that opening represented less than 35% of their overall domestic gross. None of this year's trio of big openers is in that group. They all - and I think it's more than fair to say that they are all close to played out domestically - failed to hit the triple.

Of course, all three are hits... just not monsters.

X-Men: The Last Stand is the worst performer in this regard in movie history. It is the only film with an opening of more than $65 million for which that opening represents more than 40% of the final domestic gross. The number currently is 44.7%

But X-Men: The Last Stand may be historic. It is the second $100 million opener (of five) to fail to get to $300 million, the other being last year's Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire. But Goblet at least got to $290 million. X3 won't hit $240 million.


Second weekend drops are huge and holding power is almost nonexistent when it comes to the big Hollywood movies. Quality is almost irrelevant. Same for how much people seem to like it. It's getting worse and worse. Expect Superman Returns to continue this trend.

1) MI3 - 48% second weekend drop - Total BO less than three times opening weekend

2) Poseidon - 58% second weekend drop - Total BO less than three times opening weekend

3) Da Vinci Code - 56% second weekend drop - Total BO less than three times opening weekend

4) X-Men 3 - 67% second weekend drop - Total BO barely over two times opening weekend

Click continues the trend and SR likely will too. I know, nothing shocking and nothing new. But I think it's remarkable how poorly these movies are holding. Some got a lot of good reviews and I don't think any were generally disliked by viewers. There's hardly any chance for movies like these to hold anymore.

I'm sorry if this bored people, but I find it pretty interesting.
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  #777  
Old 07-06-2006, 04:50 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by Mr. Fred Krueger
I don't think $75 million for the weekend is low, just rational. $150 million would require $50 million per day. Not happening. I agree with everyone that Pirates is going to do well, but there is no way in hell that it's making that much money in one weekend. 5 or 6 days, possibly. Not one weekend.
I didn't say $150 million. More like $135 million. But it's not impossible. Where was the precedent for Potter's opening? Or Spider-Man's? Lost World, Jaws, Batman '89, ROTS. I could go on.

Last edited by Jon Lyrik; 07-06-2006 at 05:01 PM..
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  #778  
Old 07-06-2006, 04:53 PM
Plus, Superman's word of mouth isn't exactly great. Good is not enough. The only way a movie of that scale can have good or great legs these days is spectacular word of mouth or a great release date. Batman's word of mouth was out-of-this-world and it still dropped 45% its first two weekends, and that wasn't with a behemoth like POTC 2 on its tail.
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  #779  
Old 07-06-2006, 05:25 PM
I think Superman will hold up better then most (evem me origianly) think they will. Pirates will domainate, but Supes wont just vansih from theatres.

The biggest problem with Superman is that it seems like it was made for an older crowd then most comic book movies nowadays.

Its also not really a movie high on rewatchability to me.
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  #780  
Old 07-06-2006, 05:27 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by Shockwave
I think Superman will hold up better then most (evem me origianly) think they will. Pirates will domainate, but Supes wont just vansih from theatres.
What makes you think that? Just a hunch? Why would SR be the exception to the rule?
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  #781  
Old 07-06-2006, 08:41 PM
It will make some money but its not going to buck the odds , it will probably do decent business this week because POTC is a long ass movie and will have less showings then it could have had and will be sold out at a lot of places so most people who don't get a ticket will probably hit SR if they didn't see it yet.
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  #782  
Old 07-06-2006, 09:31 PM
Quote:
What makes you think that? Just a hunch? Why would SR be the exception to the rule?
I dont think itll be an exception, i just dont think its going to sink like the Titanic like some people think it will.
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  #783  
Old 07-06-2006, 09:39 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by MadsenOMC
Why would SR be the exception to the rule?
Because it's a genuinely good film. Hell, the exit polling was favorable for Superman Returns. Now, not everyone loved it of course, but most people going in were pleased or at least liked the thing.

Don't count Superman out yet. There's no real reason for it to not hold up the next few weeks. Pirates'll make bank, but I have a feeling Supes is going to do something. I think it's much more impressive for a film to open strong and then remain strong for several weeks than it is to make a shit load of money right away.

If it can hold as well as Batman Begins did (which had more competition than is being led on. It was released when Episode III was still going strong and War of the Worlds was released shortly after), then SR'll be doing fine for itself.

Right now, it's earned $114,000,000 domestic. It should have about $120 million going into the weekend, so I'm estimating by the end of the weekend it'll have made somewhere between $140-145 million. Nothing to sneeze at.
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  #784  
Old 07-06-2006, 09:50 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by Mr. Fred Krueger
Because it's a genuinely good film. Hell, the exit polling was favorable for Superman Returns. Now, not everyone loved it of course, but most people going in were pleased or at least liked the thing.

Don't count Superman out yet. There's no real reason for it to not hold up the next few weeks. Pirates'll make bank, but I have a feeling Supes is going to do something. I think it's much more impressive for a film to open strong and then remain strong for several weeks than it is to make a shit load of money right away.

Right now, it's earned $114,000,000 domestic. It should have about $120 million going into the weekend, so I'm estimating by the end of the weekend it'll have made somewhere between $140-145 million. Nothing to sneeze at.
It does not matter if it is a good film or not. That has nothing to do with it. Movies lots of people like still drop hard and fast all the time. Good exit polling doesn't matter. A recent example would be Click, which I'm pretty sure had good exit polling. It still dropped over 50%. That is the name of the game these days. Is it that hard to see past your own fondness for the movie and look at the box office objectively?

There is every reason for it to not hold up well. The biggest movie of the summer is opening tomorrow, plus it's just the nature of the business now.

I'm not saying the box office for it is weak at this point. But it is underperforming. I am not out to trash SR and I have no vendetta against it. I'm just objectively examining its box office, which at this point is disappointing. For a movie that cost as much as it did and had expectations as high as it did, $300 million is the new $200 million. Love the movie all you want, a $200 million finish is disappointing.
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  #785  
Old 07-06-2006, 11:26 PM
The tracking for the midnight showings for POTC are really big. Selling out everwhere. So much for $75 million...
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  #786  
Old 07-07-2006, 01:10 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by Jon Lyrik
The tracking for the midnight showings for POTC are really big. Selling out everwhere. So much for $75 million...
Meh, I've never been good at the B.O. guessing game anyway.
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  #787  
Old 07-07-2006, 02:18 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by Jon Lyrik
The tracking for the midnight showings for POTC are really big. Selling out everwhere. So much for $75 million...
Yeah, I just got back from the midnight showing and it was basically sold out in both of the theaters that were showing it.
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  #788  
Old 07-07-2006, 02:42 AM
Well my theater ended up having three theaters and each and everyone of them was sold out. I say thats a pretty good sign. I know I'll be adding to that gross but at least 20 bucks because I'm going twice more this weekend (relatives and gf want to go)
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  #789  
Old 07-07-2006, 09:04 AM
If SR ends up making 350 million worldwide then it will be a decent success for the studio because you just know it will have 2 dvd releases that make another 100 million or more and tv deals through the roof.
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  #790  
Old 07-07-2006, 09:19 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by optimus1
If SR ends up making 350 million worldwide then it will be a decent success for the studio because you just know it will have 2 dvd releases that make another 100 million or more and tv deals through the roof.
It will make over $350 million worldwide, but that number would not be a decent success for the studio considering what they spent on the movie and on worldwide marketing costs.
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  #791  
Old 07-07-2006, 11:07 AM
On this particular movie they spent 204 million dollars for production , and how much do you think they spent on advertising? Probably 60 million or around there? Ya its not a total success but if in the end the studio ends up with a profit its not a failure so if its not a failure what do we call it? Don't forget the massive amounts of DVD 's and toys , and games , and magazines , comics , and all sorts of sales that this movie is feeding. In your opinion will there be a sequel? Do you think in there minds this movie should have done 500 million worldwide or more? I assume they did so it is probably a disappointment to them but still profitable at the end of the day.
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  #792  
Old 07-07-2006, 11:09 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by optimus1
On this particular movie they spent 204 million dollars for production , and how much do you think they spent on advertising? Probably 60 million or around there?
They spent a hell of a lot more than $204 million for production and more than $60 million to market it. Sure it will make a profit someday, but it might be a fairly minimal one. The worldwide marketing figure is massive. Almost as expensive as the movie itself.
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  #793  
Old 07-07-2006, 11:36 AM
A lot of people at WOKJ are reporting sell-outs rivalling ROTS.
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  #794  
Old 07-07-2006, 02:12 PM
Well, Guys. We might just have the smash hit of the summer.
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  #795  
Old 07-07-2006, 02:16 PM

..im loving this. All my friends said i was nuts for thinking POTC2 would outdo Supes, Cars, and X-men, and now im all but positive itll do just that.
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  #796  
Old 07-07-2006, 04:47 PM
Bryan singer said in a interview on scifi.com that he had a 180 or so million dollar budget and he ended up spending 204 million to make the movie. The advertising money is probably huge but until i see an actual figure I would have to believe they are nuts if they went over 100 million with that. As far as how much other money they spent before singer got there..it doesn't count with respect towards this particular movie and its box office..
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  #797  
Old 07-07-2006, 05:12 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by optimus1
Bryan singer said in a interview on scifi.com that he had a 180 or so million dollar budget and he ended up spending 204 million to make the movie. The advertising money is probably huge but until i see an actual figure I would have to believe they are nuts if they went over 100 million with that. As far as how much other money they spent before singer got there..it doesn't count with respect towards this particular movie and its box office..
On Sunday Morning Shootout Singer said the final production budget was $265 million. The man himself said that. If that includes the money spent before Singer signed on, then yes, it does count towards SR. And the $265 million is what other sites are reporting as the budget when referencing SR and its box office. As for the worldwide marketing cost, it is far more than $100 million.
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  #798  
Old 07-07-2006, 05:33 PM
Thats too bad that the extra money they spent gets tacked onto his film..he did spend 204 so the other 61 million was a total waste. Anyway , so you say with advertising worldwide the total cost to make this movie was 400 million dollars or so right? Thats just a ridiculous amount of money to spend and I won't shed a tear if they don't make it back. The movie was good but the studio better have been hoping it was going to make like 20 million dollars in profit 3 years from now or they should get some new decision makers there. When you start at 400 million you better be damn sure its going to be a Titanic type project and not something like Superman.
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  #799  
Old 07-07-2006, 05:37 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by optimus1
Thats too bad that the extra money they spent gets tacked onto his film..he did spend 204 so the other 61 million was a total waste. Anyway , so you say with advertising worldwide the total cost to make this movie was 400 million dollars or so right?
David Poland stated that the worldwide marketing costs are close to $200 million, so even if you go with the $205 million figure for the production cost, you've got a total of over $400 million.
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  #800  
Old 07-07-2006, 05:43 PM
I realize I quote David Poland a lot in this thread, and even though I disagree with him frequently when it comes to movies, I believe his box office analysis is better than anyone else's. So here is something to keep in mind this weekend:

There are, of course, all of those people out there who would love to call a $90 million 3-day opening a flop, even though it would be a new July record and the 9th best opening of all time. So be it.

Similarly, some would proclaim any $100 million 3-day a guarantee of massive success… and it’s not that either. X2 & X3 have proven that.

And of course, like Superman Returns, the real numbers include foreign, which we really won’t have a clear handle on for another few weeks.

Speaking of SR, after nine days, the Man of Steel has grossed an estimated $119.8 million, which puts it at #28 on the all-time nine-day list, just behind The Day After Tomorrow. As for this summer, the film is now $5.5 million behind the 9-day total for The Da Vinci Code, about $46 million behind X-Men: The Last Stand (whose 9-day includes a second Friday and Saturday), and only $1 million behind Cars.
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