#81  
Old 11-30-2005, 07:57 PM
tuesday

potter 2 mil

WTL 1 mil


Anyone here think walk the line is going to hit 100mil?
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  #82  
Old 12-01-2005, 07:39 PM
Weds-

Harry potter 1.9 mil

Walk the line 1.1

can anyone do this weekends numbers (friday est- sun) and weekend est i cant, ill be in princeton nj with my debate team at a tournament and wont be back home porb till sunday 6-8
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  #83  
Old 12-02-2005, 08:16 AM
BTW, this thread was a good idea - Works much better to have everything in just one, on-going thread.
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  #84  
Old 12-02-2005, 09:05 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by NightStalkerGtx


can anyone do this weekends numbers (friday est- sun) and weekend est i cant, ill be in princeton nj with my debate team at a tournament and wont be back home porb till sunday 6-8
Myself and others have been doing them for a long time around here, and I'm sure we'll be able to handle it.
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  #85  
Old 12-03-2005, 12:03 PM
Friday's Estimates:

1) HARRY POTTER AND THE GOBLET OF FIRE - $5.1 million
2) AEON FLUX - $4.8 million
3) WALK THE LINE - $3.1 million
4) YOURS, MINE & OURS - $2.3 million
5) JUST FRIENDS - $2 million
6) RENT - $1.6 million
7) PRIDE AND PREJUDICE - $1.1 million
8) CHICKEN LITTLE - $1 million
9) DERAILED - $700,000
10) IN THE MIX - $600,000
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  #86  
Old 12-03-2005, 02:19 PM
Wow, I'm very suprised by Aeon Flux's take, but I'm sure it's mainly devotees of the series, or horny Charlize Theron fans.
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  #87  
Old 12-03-2005, 10:36 PM
Aeon Flux was a pretty obscure show, I'd chalk it up to Theron more than anything else.

I think thew blew it with the 'horny' audience draw by giving Aeon Flux about 500% more clothing than she had in the cartoon. Aaaahhhj. what could have been..
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  #88  
Old 12-03-2005, 11:52 PM
It looks like it will be a horserace for the number one spot this weekend. I think that it looks like HP will hit around 18-21 million this weekend, for a drop of about 60ish percent. I suppose that it is a perfect setup for Narnia to take over next week.

Aeon Flux should be competitive with HP this weekend.

Walk the line looks like it might get another 13-16 million this weekend; that is actually a pretty respectable drop. With the holidays around the corner, is it possible that this could hit the centurion mark? As of Friday, it is at 60 million so far. (In order to hit 100 million, it has to hold at its current level for about 2 weeks more). And if/when it gets re-released during the oscar nominations, it could definitely break 100m.

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  #89  
Old 12-04-2005, 12:57 PM
Weekend Estimates:

1) HARRY POTTER - $20.4 million (-62.6%) $229 million
2) AEON FLUX - $13.1 million
3) WALK THE LINE - $10 million (-47.9%) $68.7 million
4) YOURS, MINE & OURS - $8.4 million (-51.9%) $34.5 million
5) JUST FRIENDS - $5.6 million (-39.1%) $21.1 million
6) PRIDE AND PREJUDICE - $4.624 million (-35.4%) $22.6 million
7) RENT - $4.6 million (-54.1%) $23.9 million
8) CHICKEN LITTLE - $4.5 million (-64.1%) $124.2 million
9) DERAILED - $2.4 million (-47.6%) $32.8 million
10) IN THE MIX - $1.9 million (-57.3%) $8.6 million
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  #90  
Old 12-04-2005, 01:59 PM
Ok, Harry Potter made its money, now commence dropping like a rock.
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  #91  
Old 12-04-2005, 04:17 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by thedudeman69
Ok, Harry Potter made its money, now commence dropping like a rock.
Being front heavy in the box office is great for the studios, but it sucks for the theaters. In the beginning of a film's run, the cut is usually 70/30. In the end of a film's run, it may be 30/70. I'm not sure about the numbers, but it is something like that. I think that HP is damned close to breaking even (from the worldwide BO and including marketing expenses). Once the DVD comes out in April, it will make a shitload of pure profit.
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  #92  
Old 12-04-2005, 05:03 PM
I wouldn't say Potter is dropping badly at all considering its drop is only like 5% more than the first movie post-Thanksgiving weekend.
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  #93  
Old 12-04-2005, 06:13 PM
im very happy to see that harry potter was number one over the weekend(also the first movie of the year to stay there three weeks in a row) it was a great movie, i saw aeon flux over the weekend and it was ok but i can understand its entry into the top ten as being less than steller. next week we have narnia which looks interesting to me, but im not as excited about it as i was potter or batman, or any other movie this year. the one thing i dont like is that a lot of christian organizations are giving it the thumbs up. it bothers me when churchs start saying whats good and whats not. (call me a potter fan but if narnia makes more domesticly than Gof im going to shake the shit out of somebody) im going to go with narnia having a 50-60 mil opening and then kong knocking it down to 2nd. however the fact that these two movies are opening up so close together tells me that kong probably isnt going to recoup it's budget back.i may be wrong about this, however placing these two heavy weights within days of eachother does force the consumer to choose between the two. which is a good thing mind you, the only thing i fear is them splitting what would otherwise be a single movie gross. for example, narnia opens at 50 and kong opens at 50. but i guess this will show what movie has legs and what doesnt then eh?

tron out

Last edited by AmunRaTRON; 12-04-2005 at 06:15 PM..
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  #94  
Old 12-05-2005, 01:12 AM
Yahoo posts the box office totals every week as well. They had a headline that made me laugh:

"Harry hotter than Charlize this weekend".

Brilliant.
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  #95  
Old 12-10-2005, 12:07 PM
Friday Est

CHRONICLES OF NARNIA: THE LION, THE WITCH AND THE WARDROBE, THE 23.4------------------ 23.4
SYRIANA 3.8------------------- 5.3
HARRY POTTER AND THE GOBLET OF FIRE 2.8------------- 241.0
WALK THE LINE 1.7------------------ 73.0
AEON FLUX 1.4-------------- 17.1
YOURS, MINE & OURS 1.4----------------- 37.2
JUST FRIENDS 1.3----------------- 24.0
PRIDE AND PREJUDICE .8--------------- 24.7
RENT .7-------------- 25.6
CHICKEN LITTLE .5--------------------- 125.4

Last edited by NightStalkerGtx; 12-10-2005 at 12:09 PM..
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  #96  
Old 12-10-2005, 12:27 PM
Narnia should make roughly 65-70 million for the weekend. Great opening! Should be a lock for 200+ million now.
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  #97  
Old 12-10-2005, 12:29 PM
I'm seeing double.
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  #98  
Old 12-10-2005, 12:33 PM
Narnia and KK are going to help the year's B.O results to bounce back closer to 2004 levels. While KK's opening numbers will be inflated because of it's 3-hour lenght, it should open with over 25 million on Wednesday.
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  #99  
Old 12-10-2005, 12:43 PM
Narnia wont make 65 mil the fans prob rushed out opening day to see thus it will most likely have a drop on sat to 19-21 and theres no way its making 20 mil on sunday it should drop to at least 15

so lets add
23
21
15

i see a 58 - 61 mil opening.
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  #100  
Old 12-10-2005, 12:46 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by NightStalkerGtx
Narnia wont make 65 mil the fans prob rushed out opening day to see thus it will most likely have a drop on sat to 19-21 and theres no way its making 20 mil on sunday it should drop to at least 15

so lets add
23
21
15

i see a 58 - 61 mil opening.
It's also a first film in series, and has strong kiddie/family appeal, thus making it less frontloaded.
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  #101  
Old 12-10-2005, 01:03 PM
I see Narnia making 65-80 millon this weekend.
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  #102  
Old 12-10-2005, 03:53 PM
You forgot to add the really staggering figure! Brokeback Mountain did approximately $0.2M this friday, out of only 5 theatres, and will do over $0.5M this weekend, having a $100,000 per theatrer average! (And that is a conservative estimate!) Now THAT is something!
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  #103  
Old 12-11-2005, 12:23 PM
Weekend Estimates
NARNIA $67,064,000 NEW $67,064,000
SYRIANA $12,030,000 +2,207.2% $13,529,000
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  #104  
Old 12-11-2005, 01:52 PM
wow narnia kicked some ass
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  #105  
Old 12-11-2005, 02:42 PM
Fantastic for Narnia.

Now for Kong...
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  #106  
Old 12-11-2005, 02:48 PM
Narnia did great.
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  #107  
Old 12-11-2005, 03:52 PM
1 N The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe BV $67,064,000 NEW 3,616 - $18,546 $67,064,000 1
2 19 Syriana WB $12,030,000 +2,207.2% 1,752 +1,743 $6,866 $13,529,000 3
3 1 Harry Potter WB $10,315,000 -48.1% 3,728 -130 $2,766 $244,119,000 4
4 3 Walk the Line Fox $5,750,000 -39.7% 3,034 -126 $1,895 $77,003,000 4
5 4 Yours, Mine and Ours Par. $5,150,000 -37.6% 3,210 - $1,604 $40,917,000 3
6 2 Aeon Flux Par. $4,625,000 -63.5% 2,608 - $1,773 $20,282,000 2
7 5 Just Friends NL $3,900,000 -30.4% 2,464 -41 $1,582 $26,464,000 3
8 8 Pride and Prejudice Focus $2,491,000 -43.3% 1,335 +8 $1,865 $26,385,000 5
9 7 Chicken Little BV $2,256,000 -48.8% 2,326 -695 $969 $127,230,000 6
10 6 Rent SonR $2,000,000 -55.0% 1,971 -466 $1,014 $26,912,000 3

11 9 Derailed Wein. $1,268,000 -44.9% 1,128 -574 $1,124 $34,720,000 5
12 17 The Polar Express IMAX $946,000 +12.9% 66 - $14,333 $3,832,000 3
14 N Memoirs of a Geisha Sony $674,000 NEW 8 - $84,250 $674,000 1
16 N Brokeback Mountain Focus $545,000 NEW 5 - $109,000 $545,000 1
N/A N Mrs. Henderson Presents Wein. $58,200 NEW 6 - $9,700 $58,200 1
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  #108  
Old 12-11-2005, 04:05 PM
Great numbers for Narnia!

And WOW! At number 16 in the box office, Brokeback just made box office history as its $109,000 per theatrer average is the highest one ever, for a live action film!
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  #109  
Old 12-14-2005, 05:14 PM
The folks at worldofkj are tracking down the wednesday number for KK and it seems at this point that it will make around 16-17 million. Less than I expected, but it's a normal non-holiday wednesday, so it's still very good. LOTR:FOTR made 16 million on it's wednesday opening, but I don't quite see KK being equally leggy in the long run.
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  #110  
Old 12-15-2005, 02:14 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by Tuukka
The folks at worldofkj are tracking down the wednesday number for KK and it seems at this point that it will make around 16-17 million. Less than I expected, but it's a normal non-holiday wednesday, so it's still very good. LOTR:FOTR made 16 million on it's wednesday opening, but I don't quite see KK being equally leggy in the long run.
Three things:

1) King Kong is as long as LOTR: FOTR and if it can match its opening, then I'd consider it pretty successful.

2) If the critical and WOM from our schmoes are an indication of how this movie will be received by the majority, it seems that this film could be a blockbuster on the scope of T2 or Jurassic Park. You could be very well be right about it not being as leggy as LOTR. But I have a feeling that there is a slight possibility that it could stick around in the theaters for a while.

3) If King Kong does have the legs to stick at the top spot for more than 3-4 weeks, then the recently released King Kong "production diaries" are sure to be a money maker for Universal (and, because the feature film is not included in the set, the DVDs may interestingly cycle back into the box office revenue by persuading people who are willing to purchase the set to have repeat viewings). I'd imagine that those dvds are pure profit.

Last edited by inglourious basterd; 12-15-2005 at 02:17 AM..
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  #111  
Old 12-15-2005, 02:23 AM
KK will certainly make a healthy profit for the studio. The worst case scenario is 500 million worldwide and another 500 million on DVD. Even with the massive budget and marketing costs it will make a good profit.

Crowd reports around the net indicate that on it's opening day KK was playing around 70% to male audiences, mostly between 15-30 years old. The marketing and the concept were apparently not working properly for females and 30+ year old's.

In comparison, LOTR movies played 50/50 to both genders, and to all age groups.

However, I think the very strong WOM will convert a lot of people to see KK, even if they have not been excited before the opening. It should be less frontloaded and more leggy than expected.
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  #112  
Old 12-15-2005, 02:13 PM
from SBD:


No Title Distributor Scrns Daily Gross Avg Total Gross
1. KING KONG UNIVERSAL 3,567 10,030,000 2,812 10,030,000
2. CHRONICLES OF NARNIA: THE LION, THE WITCH AND THE WARDROBE, THE BUENA VISTA 3,616 3,440,000 951 77,666,000
3. SYRIANA WARNER BROS. 1,752 810,000 462 16,102,000
4. HARRY POTTER AND THE GOBLET OF FIRE WARNER BROS. 3,728 590,000 158 246,049,000
5. WALK THE LINE UNIVERSAL 3,034 445,000 147 78,481,000
6. PRIDE AND PREJUDICE FOCUS FEATURES 1,335 290,000 217 27,348,000
7. AEON FLUX PARAMOUNT 2,608 255,000 98 21,188,000
8. JUST FRIENDS NEW LINE 2,464 245,000 99 27,173,000
9. YOURS, MINE & OURS PARAMOUNT 3,210 205,000 64 41,459,000
10. RENT SONY 1,971 135,000 68 27,411,000
11. POLAR EXPRESS, THE WARNER BROS. 66 124,585 1,888 166,963,271
12. CHICKEN LITTLE BUENA VISTA 2,326 115,000 49 127,660,000
13. BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN FOCUS FEATURES 5 112,314 22,463 861,000
14. MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA SONY 8 64,764 8,096 910,000
15. GOOD NIGHT AND GOOD LUCK. WARNER BROS. 512 45,000 88 22,052,000

...That's much lower than expected for KK. It's VERY interesting to see how it behaves in the next few days - Will it jump up like Shrek 2 did from a wednesday opening, or is it actually going to be a relative bomb?
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  #113  
Old 12-15-2005, 02:20 PM
Yeah looks like worldofkj was pretty far off this time. I don't think it's a bad omen for KK. I know that I'm dying to see it, but I don't have time until this weekend. I imagine that's the case for a lot of people. If it had opened during Christmas break and made $10 million its first day, that would be a different story.
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  #114  
Old 12-15-2005, 02:31 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by MadsenOMC
Yeah looks like worldofkj was pretty far off this time. I don't think it's a bad omen for KK. I know that I'm dying to see it, but I don't have time until this weekend. I imagine that's the case for a lot of people. If it had opened during Christmas break and made $10 million its first day, that would be a different story.
I'm seeing the film tomorrow so I don't know if I will like it, but at the moment I REALLY hope it recovers and the disappointing opening day attributes to factors which weren't counted on - People being busy with school, exams, work, shopping, etc, on the week before christmas.

I would just be a shame that a film which had so much love and passion put to it would fail...

But the friday number will be the real test.
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  #115  
Old 12-15-2005, 02:40 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by Tuukka
People being busy with school, exams, work, shopping, etc, on the week before christmas.
I really believe that is why yesterday's number isn't bigger. Most people are still really busy right now and probably didn't have the time or energy to see it on opening night.
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  #116  
Old 12-15-2005, 02:47 PM
At least this is really good news for Narnia which should have a solid hold this weekend. Competition from KK is not going to hit it hard, like I thought. Even if KK recovers on Friday, it's going to have "only" a really strong weekend, instead of a massive one.
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  #117  
Old 12-15-2005, 04:59 PM
Let the spin begin...
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  #118  
Old 12-15-2005, 08:35 PM
This is more like Batman Begins if you ask me. That opened to "only" $15 million on a summer Wednesday. It would surely have had an opening day similar to Kong's had it opened on its slot.

King Kong's current word of mouth is fantastic (#7 of all time and an A- on Yahoo, which made up of average joes and not movie geeks like IMDb is), as Begins' was. I remember some doomsayers for Begins as well, and look how that turned out
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  #119  
Old 12-15-2005, 08:39 PM
The real "spin" comes with the numbers on Monday.
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  #120  
Old 12-15-2005, 10:15 PM
King Kong , 200 mil 5 day .
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