#2081  
Old 05-27-2007, 04:46 PM
Fekkin thursday release mucking up my predictions , nah not really , it's saturday's drop that ruined it , i thought for sure it would increase yesterday , guess too many people were having party's and getting drunk to get to the theater . Even if it did increase though , it wouldn't have made my prediction of 160 3 day . I'm thinking people are simply running out of money , whoever came out first had the best chance to have the best opening weekend . Seriously , how many people can take their family to the theater 3 times in the span of 3 weeks and spend 60 - 70 dollars or so , because of the snacks and ticket prices , it adds up after awhile . Each succesive block release has made less and less opening weekend . There's only so much to go around . You know what though , i'm going to say fekk it , i'm counting thursday's numbers , it's the people that would have seen it on friday anyway , so 126 mil is the weekend total for me , it makes more sense .


Pirates has crossed 300 mil worldwide already though , and it should hold up nicely in the coming weeks until the next big film is released , FF 2 . I still think it can beat Sm's overall domestic take , and hopefully Drek will catch up and pass it too , since i had those 1 2 and 3 for the summer . Sm 3 is going to fall short of part 2's total in Na , but it has passed the first two in the series worldwide , overall .



I can see at least 2 more films breaking 100 mil the rest of the summer , Trans and Potter . I'm not sure Die Hard has enough of a fanbase to do it and it's not exactly something families will go see , and FF2 is not on the same level as some other comic book franchises , but it both of those films could do 70 plus .



Transformers and Potter should be the two remaining big ones for the summer , i think Trans should flirt with 100 , but i'm not sure it can surpass it for the weekend , and Hp , it looks like the coolest one in a series i don't really care for , but that should threaten to cross 100 mil also .


This is still pretty crazy , not only the box office totals , which we now take for granted , because everything is breaking 100 mil without blinking , we expect it now , but the fact that there is so much to get excited about , and i haven't been let down yet . Sm 3 , Pirates 3 , 28 weeks , i've had a good time with all of them , so even if i bitch , i can't deny the quality is there , maybe that's why i've been going to the movies more often as of late . It could be too much of a good thing , becuase there is at least 7 other films i want to see now the rest of the summer , it's truly nuts . So far though , 28 has stood out and really blew me away , even if i enjoyed the other 2 . I don't know if anything else for the rest of the summer is going to give me that visceral kick to the groin that 28 has , even if some of the others will feature great visual effects .
Reply With Quote
  #2082  
Old 05-27-2007, 04:58 PM
Fantastic Four 2 is not the next big flick to open. I think that's Ocean's 13.

And I wouldn't count out or underestimate Surf's Up and Knocked Up either. Both of those movies have the potential to be HUGE as well.
Reply With Quote
  #2083  
Old 05-27-2007, 05:19 PM
I am so sick of Penguins.

I swear the next penguin i run across im going to drop kick.

I think Knocked Up is going to be a surprise hit however.
Reply With Quote
  #2084  
Old 05-27-2007, 05:29 PM
I agree but I still think the movie will could be huge.

And I'm not sure if Knocked Up would be a surprise hit since it's from the same people who did The 40 Year Old Virgin.

Infact, I'll be surprised if it's not a hit.
Reply With Quote
  #2085  
Old 05-27-2007, 06:00 PM
I don't know about knocked up , i think it looks like stv dreck , somewhat amusing but nothing that great , and the brought to you by thing normally doesn't affect box office that much except for people that pay attention to those things , and that's not many , save for the directed by , that usually makes a diff , but the producing / writing aspect , not so sure .


Brought to you by the guy who catered American Pie : Band Camp , i gotta go see that now !



I'm not saying it won't do decent numbers , but i'm talking the really big ones , the ones that could break 70 mil opening weekend and possibly 100 mil , no way is knocked up coming even close to 40 mil .


Surf's up , ah , seems like some people were laughing at the trailer , but we just had happy feet ( somewhat recently ) , and this looks like the same exact film , and people may be exhausted , having gotten their cgi kiddie fix from drek 3 . I don't see big numbers for this one either , 30 mil maybe , i really couldn't say right now .



Ocean's 13 , haven't people had enough of a bunch of smug actors preening for the camera thinking they're being cool , we'll see . 40 mil opening , 100 mil total .



All i know is , i've already seen one of the best of the summer / spring season , 28 weeks , something that should have done better , but it's time for silly , can't take it seriously entertainment , it dint have a chance .
Reply With Quote
  #2086  
Old 05-27-2007, 06:17 PM
I am not at all surprised P.O.T.C. 3 is doing less business than it's predecessor. I think it was a mistake on Disney's part to release it in may and they would have been better off sticking to the traditional early July Pirates release when the movie could have had more legs. I do think Pirates may end up winning the battle of the big 3 but all of them are going to struggle to break the $350 million mark which has to be a letdown fo all three studios.

But the most disturbing news to me in this weeks box office is that according to box office mojo Wild Hogs has re-entered the top ten in it's 13th week of release. It went from 17th last week to 10th this week and somehow had a 158% increase despite a loss of 86 screens. I guess fucked up things like this can happen when 3 movies control 75% of the screens in the good old U.S.A.
Reply With Quote
  #2087  
Old 05-28-2007, 08:21 AM
They all screwed themselves to a certain extent , it's so damn crowded with all these sequels , they hurt each other's box office . These films need at least 3 weeks in between in order to make the bank they were hoping for , but despite all that , 3 movies breaking 300 in the same year ( shrek is already over 200 and pirates will no doubt keep on chugging ) , with more on the way that could possibly do the same , that's nuts , but again , it's a crowded field , when it comes to these films , the best thing for the studios to do is not compete with each other , just let everyone make their money .


Nooo , they can't do that , they have to crap on each other , now they all have muck on themselves , although it's sweet smelling box office money muck , it could have been more .


It is funny , that the way it is now , if pirates doesn't break 400 mil ( Na take ) , it will be considered a disappointment by some people . Even at 390 mil , some people will say it's the end of the franchise , like me with sm 3 , because it won't beat part 2's box office here in Na .


Just think of this , by the end of this long weekend , pirates will either cross or come close to 400 mil worldwide , and that's only from 4 days of release , it should flirt with a bil , so it's no doubt in fine shape no matter , same with sm3 , it passed 800 mil already .


About Wh reentering the top ten again , time to gather the supplies , grab the radio , and wait for the end of the world , i know it's coming now .

Last edited by dellamorte dellamore; 05-28-2007 at 08:23 AM..
Reply With Quote
  #2088  
Old 05-28-2007, 03:13 PM
4-day weekend estimates from BoxOfficeMojo:

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End BV $142,055,000
2. Shrek the Third P/DW $69,085,000
3. Spider-Man 3 Sony $18,000,000
4. Bug LGF $4,200,000
5. Waitress FoxS $4,000,000

It also seems that the three day estimate for Pirates was low, they now have it listed as $115 million. Including Thursday, that puts the film at about $156 million since opening.

My three day prediction for Shrek turned out to match its total for the four day weekend. Its falling much faster than expected.
Reply With Quote
  #2089  
Old 05-28-2007, 05:23 PM
And it's still prob going to break 300 mil , Shrek that is , what a disappointment .
Reply With Quote
  #2090  
Old 05-28-2007, 05:37 PM
Well Pirates now holds the #4 spot on all-time opening weekend with the actual $115 million, which tops Spider-Man by around .2 million. It collected more up to Monday than Shrek the Third did, so it will probably rise ahead of Shrek the Third domestically once all is said and done. I don't know if Spider-Man is beatable for Pirates, but it's not out of the question. There are plenty of popular flicks coming out, but not of which that will send Pirates to a big drop. Pirates will probably have a smaller second weekend drop than Spider-Man and Shrek the Third. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

Knocked Up should make around 80-100 million overall. There are a shitload of people I know that are dying to see it. It has been marketed well and not marketed to the point that people are getting sick of hearing about it.
Reply With Quote
  #2091  
Old 05-28-2007, 05:42 PM
Really , if the commercials dint annoy me , some of the buzz that it's getting here is getting groan inducing , so i wouldn't say the hype or advertising isn't getting annoying , because it def is already .

I hate these chick flicks disguised as flicks made for guys who watch the spike channel , i'll pass , maybe i'll watch 28 weeks again .
Reply With Quote
  #2092  
Old 05-28-2007, 06:43 PM
I was way off on Pirates. I figured it'd be well over $170 after Monday's figures. I guess its length and competition from Shrek played more of a role than I figured they would. Glad to see it. Shrek is falling pretty quickly too, rare for a family movie (although it's too early to tell how much it's REALLY falling). Personally, I thought this summer would be a slight disappointment in box office numbers for the Big 3 (as in, none of them would match their predecessors) and I'm glad it might happen (again, too early too tell). I hope Hollywood execs stop thinking we'll see a movie with a certain title regardless of its quality.
Reply With Quote
  #2093  
Old 05-29-2007, 05:39 PM
Weekend ACTUALS:

Pirates three day: $114,732,820
Pirates four day: $139,802,190

Pirates domestic total after 4.5 days: $153,042,234
Shrek the Third domestic total after 11 days: $217,348,470
Spider-Man 3 domestic total after 25 days: $307,754,583
Reply With Quote
  #2094  
Old 06-02-2007, 10:16 AM
copied and pasted from boxofficemojo:

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End (Buena Vista) - $12.75M [$186M cume]
2. Knocked Up (Universal) - $8.9M [$8.9M cume]
3. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $6.75M [$234.65M cume]
4. Mr. Brooks (MGM) - $3.2M [$3.2M cume]
5. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - $1.9M [$312.6M cume]
6. Waitress (Fox Searchlight) - $650,000 [$8M cume]
7. Gracie (Picturehouse) - $600,000 [$600,000 cume]
8. Bug (Lionsgate) - $335,000 [$5.1M cume]
9. Disturbia (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $307,000 [$75.9M cume]
10. 28 Weeks Later (Fox Atomic) - $302,000 [$25.6M cume]

Wow, it looks like the May threequels can't keep it together in the 2nd weekend although Shrek had the advantage since it was a 3 day weekend.

Knocked Up will be leggy. Mark my words.
Reply With Quote
  #2095  
Old 06-02-2007, 10:20 AM
Good numbers for Knocked Up. It will make a decent opening and, I agree, will have legs. This is the kind of movie that word of mouth keeps on the top 10 chart all summer.
Reply With Quote
  #2096  
Old 06-02-2007, 10:43 AM
Fantasy Moguls estimates are notoriously unreliable, thought. All of those numbers might be several millions off in either direction. I'll wait for SBD or BOM estimates.
Reply With Quote
  #2097  
Old 06-02-2007, 10:43 AM
Showbizdata has these estimates:

1) Pirates of the Caribbean: At Worlds End - $13.4 million
2) Knocked Up - $9.9 million
3) Shrek the Third - $7.5 million
4) Mr. Brooks - $3 million
5) Spider-Man 3 - $2 million
Reply With Quote
  #2098  
Old 06-02-2007, 10:45 AM
Top 10:

SBD:

1. PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: AT WORLDS END BVI 4,362 13,390,000 3,070 n/a 186,746,000
2. KNOCKED UP UNIVERSAL 2,871 9,945,000 3,464 n/a 9,945,000
3. SHREK THE THIRD DREAMWORK 4,122 7,478,000 1,814 n/a 235,347,000
4. MR. BROOKS MGM 2,453 3,012,000 1,228 n/a 3,012,000
5. SPIDER-MAN 3 SONY 4,324 1,997,000 462 n/a 312,752,000
6. WAITRESS FOX SEARCHLIGHT 116 561,000 4,836 n/a 7,973,000
7. GRACIE PICTURE HOUSE 1,164 418,000 359 n/a 418,000
8. BUG LIONS GATE 812 404,000 498 n/a 5,282,000
9. 28 WEEKS LATER FOX ATOMIC 2,305 361,000 157 n/a 25,738,973
10. DISTURBIA PARAMO0UNT 2,547 350,000 137 n/a 75,944,808
Reply With Quote
  #2099  
Old 06-02-2007, 03:03 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by MadsenOMC
Showbizdata has these estimates:

1) Pirates of the Caribbean: At Worlds End - $13.4 million
2) Knocked Up - $9.9 million
3) Shrek the Third - $7.5 million
4) Mr. Brooks - $3 million
5) Spider-Man 3 - $2 million
Wow, a pretty big drop for Pirates. Very good for Knocked Up, and it will have legs too. Not too good for Shrek. It's dropping way too fast for a kids movie. Better than I thought for Mr. Brooks.
Reply With Quote
  #2100  
Old 06-02-2007, 03:28 PM
Pirates dropped like a rock. That's what lack of word of mouth gets you. Knocked Up? Whew, that is going to keep raking in the money for all summer.
Reply With Quote
  #2101  
Old 06-02-2007, 04:07 PM
Pirates is bound to have a nice boost on Saturday and Sunday, but even with that it may only claw its way to $45-48 million for the weekend. That's around a 60% drop. I knew word of mouth would be less than enthusiastic for this cobbled-together mess of a movie. No offence to those who liked it, but I'm glad to see Pirates fever is dying down. With numbers like this, At World's End may struggle to make $300 million and it could come up with the smallest domestic take of May's big three. Of course it's slaughtering overseas, and if they really want to give us Part IV I'm sure they will.

As was said, all the May threequels have totally collapsed in their second weekends. Even Shrek the Third dropped 58%, which shocked me a little bit. Studios poured money into their franchises... Spider-Man 3 cost $250 million, while At World's End cost $300 million. Three. Hundred. Million. Dollars. And that's before marketing. But, by and large, they didn't deliver quality products.

Now Knocked Up coud make around $28 million this weekend, which is pretty fantastic. If it's as funny as everyone says it is, then that movie is going to hang around.
Reply With Quote
  #2102  
Old 06-02-2007, 09:00 PM
It's going to drop the same amount as part 2 about , so it's not like the pirate fever thing has died down , films like these seem to be killing overseas , so it's not like any of them are hurting . Sm will finish around 900 mil , Pirates will be flirting with that also , but the expectations are so high now , anything less than a bil overall is considered disappointing , the stakes have been raised .

Knocked up is the latest de riguer chick flick buddy flick hybrid from the guys who brought you ... , there's always one of those every summer . I go to the movies to see overblown nonsense like pirates ( and great horror movies like 28 weeks ) , not dvd rentals like KU , and the numbers aren't surprising , it's yet another fashionable film to go see for people that watch the spike channel , and comedy central . It should be number one next weekend though , but i don't know what's playing , honestly , i'm looking forward to Black Sheep more than anything , now that actually looks funny .

Date flick , blah , i'm proud of a film that chicks won't see ( save for the mainstream stuff that everyone flocks too ) , a healthy dose of actual guy flicks is important , not drek like knocked up that tries to please both sexes , fekk that garbage .

Last edited by dellamorte dellamore; 06-02-2007 at 09:03 PM..
Reply With Quote
  #2103  
Old 06-03-2007, 08:14 AM
dd, how do you know that Knocked Up is "drek" if you haven't seen it? Oh, right, you don't. You have no idea what the fuck you are talking about. I don't watch the Spike Channel or Comedy Central. So once again, you have no idea what the fuck you are talking about. And you think it isn't "fashionable" for people to see another entry in an insanely popular franchise like POTC, but it is "fashionable" for people to see Knocked Up? Wait, you guessed it. You have no idea what the fuck you're talking about.
Reply With Quote
  #2104  
Old 06-03-2007, 10:49 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by MadsenOMC
dd, how do you know that Knocked Up is "drek" if you haven't seen it? Oh, right, you don't. You have no idea what the fuck you are talking about. I don't watch the Spike Channel or Comedy Central. So once again, you have no idea what the fuck you are talking about. And you think it isn't "fashionable" for people to see another entry in an insanely popular franchise like POTC, but it is "fashionable" for people to see Knocked Up? Wait, you guessed it. You have no idea what the fuck you're talking about.
Couldn't have said it better myself Madsen.

You can't judge a movie that you haven't seen that is getting great reviews. A DVD rental? It is at 92% at rottentomatoes for christ sake. Spike Channel or Comedy Central? Considering I don't even watch those channels very much (save for a few South Park or MXC episodes on occasion when I'm bored) and I gave it a 10/10, there is in no way a reason to say this is for people who watch those kind of channels.

And even though there is no one being blown up or decapitated, I would still consider this a guys flick. If you were to have a classification of guys comedy, this one would most definitely fit that category.

Why don't you just see it instead of shitting on it when you have no idea what you're talking about.
Reply With Quote
  #2105  
Old 06-03-2007, 11:22 AM
Weekend Estimates (BOM):

1) POTC3 - $43.188 million (-62.4%)
2) Knocked Up - $29.284 million
3) Shrek 3 - $26.7 million (-49.7%)
4) Mr. Brooks - $10 million
5) S3 - $7.5 million (-47.7%)
6) Waitress - $2 million (-34.2%)
7) Gracie - $1.363 million
8) Bug - $1.22 million (-62.4%)
9) 28 Weeks Later - $1.2 million (-52.8%)
10) Disturbia - $1.1 million (-41.7%)
Reply With Quote
  #2106  
Old 06-03-2007, 11:29 AM
You just beat me to it...

Nasty drop for Pirates. 62% is huge. $300 million isn't happening.

Great for Knocked Up.

I see Shrek the Third leveled out a bit this week, but at this point I think Spider-Man 3 might win between the May threequels with around $340 million total. Which is quite surprising.
Reply With Quote
  #2107  
Old 06-03-2007, 11:31 AM
Spider-Man is rocking worldwide numbers, but it's dropping fast here. POTC had a horrible drop, no surprise. Knocked Up did well, and I think it will hold up over the next few weeks.
Reply With Quote
  #2108  
Old 06-03-2007, 12:02 PM
Kinda suprised Pirates didn't hold up more...but there's a lot of competition out there...3 of the biggest franchieses ever in Sherk, Spider Man and Pirates hold a lot of competition for eachother. Not to mention Knocked up and Mr. Brooks did quite well too. Although I was kinda suprised Knocked Up didn't go higher...
Reply With Quote
  #2109  
Old 06-03-2007, 12:33 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by MadsenOMC
Weekend Estimates (BOM):

1) POTC3 - $43.188 million (-62.4%)
2) Knocked Up - $29.284 million
3) Shrek 3 - $26.7 million (-49.7%)
4) Mr. Brooks - $10 million
5) S3 - $7.5 million (-47.7%)
6) Waitress - $2 million (-34.2%)
7) Gracie - $1.363 million
8) Bug - $1.22 million (-62.4%)
9) 28 Weeks Later - $1.2 million (-52.8%)
10) Disturbia - $1.1 million (-41.7%)
Big drop for Pirates. But remember, there is a lot more competition around for Spider-Man, Shrek and Pirates than Dead Man's Chest had. I think around 300 million will be what it finishes with. Great for Knocked Up and I wouldn't be surprised if it made around 18-20 million next weekend. It also had the highest per screen average. Shrek didn't have too big of a drop this weekend, and it should finish over 300 million. Mr. Brooks did better than I predicted, and had a decent per screen average as well. Spider-Man 3 had a pretty small drop, and should hang around the top 10 for a couple more weekends.
Reply With Quote
  #2110  
Old 06-03-2007, 12:34 PM
Other estimates have Mr. Brooks being closer to $9 million, so don't be surprised if the final number is lower. I don't think the opening can be considered anything better than OK. People didn't want to see something so serious in June, or they just weren't interested. I think the release date was a mistake.
Reply With Quote
  #2111  
Old 06-03-2007, 12:46 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by MadsenOMC
Other estimates have Mr. Brooks being closer to $9 million, so don't be surprised if the final number is lower. I don't think the opening can be considered anything better than OK. People didn't want to see something so serious in June, or they just weren't interested. I think the release date was a mistake.
I agree, late summer or fall would have been a smarter release time. The number isn't terrible by any means. It goes to show you that even with heavy competition, people still don't completely ignore a Kevin Costner movie, despite all the criticism he takes.
Reply With Quote
  #2112  
Old 06-03-2007, 12:50 PM
No, the number certainly isn't terrible, but it isn't very good either. It's just OK. Yes late summer or fall would have been a much better release date for this. I think it would have made more $ then.
Reply With Quote
  #2113  
Old 06-03-2007, 12:54 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by MadsenOMC
No, the number certainly isn't terrible, but it isn't very good either. It's just OK. Yes late summer or fall would have been a much better release date for this. I think it would have made more $ then.
Same with Hostel: Part II. Hostel will probably take in only $12 million dollars, which is much lower than the first one opened with. This is all due to a poor release date.
Reply With Quote
  #2114  
Old 06-03-2007, 12:57 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by Bourne101
Same with Hostel: Part II. Hostel will probably take in only $12 million dollars, which is much lower than the first one opened with. This is all due to a poor release date.
Yeah I agree that that could very easily happen. Someone could do some research and prove me wrong, but generally speaking, I don't think most viewers are interested in movies like Mr. Brooks or Hostel Part II this time of year. They want to laugh and see cool effects and be entertained. If they want something different, they'll see an art house release like Waitress.
Reply With Quote
  #2115  
Old 06-03-2007, 01:02 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by Bourne101
Same with Hostel: Part II. Hostel will probably take in only $12 million dollars, which is much lower than the first one opened with. This is all due to a poor release date.
The first Hostel also opened at the beginning of June.

Anyway, Hostel 2 will have a much lower opening for two important reason: The marketing has been awful, and the first movie had bad WOM. Making a sequel to a badly received movie isn't such a good idea in the first place.

Personally I liked Hostel, but most people disliked it.
Reply With Quote
  #2116  
Old 06-03-2007, 01:08 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by Tuukka
The first Hostel also opened at the beginning of June.
Hostel was released on January 6, 2006 in the U.S.
Reply With Quote
  #2117  
Old 06-03-2007, 01:12 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by MadsenOMC
Hostel was released on January 6, 2006 in the U.S.
Ah, true that.

The sequel would have more room in January, but even there I wouldn't see an opening better than low teens. The trailer for this film is very unappealing, and weak WOM from the first film will kill the opening.

Even the gore-friendly horror crowd mostly didn't like the first film, and mainstream appeal for the sequel is near zero.
Reply With Quote
  #2118  
Old 06-03-2007, 02:49 PM
I don't disagree with you, but I also think people not being in the mood for these types of movies plays a role as well.
Reply With Quote
  #2119  
Old 06-03-2007, 02:50 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by MadsenOMC
Other estimates have Mr. Brooks being closer to $9 million, so don't be surprised if the final number is lower. I don't think the opening can be considered anything better than OK. People didn't want to see something so serious in June, or they just weren't interested. I think the release date was a mistake.
or, it';s a movie starring KEVIN COSTNER as a killer, but also stars DANE COOK in a serious role.
Reply With Quote
  #2120  
Old 06-03-2007, 02:53 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by The Heart Collector
or, it';s a movie starring KEVIN COSTNER as a killer, but also stars DANE COOK in a serious role.
This is true as well.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump