#3881  
Old 06-15-2008, 05:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gordon View Post
Do you a) Realize how extensive the marketing budget was for it? and b) That there have been no tickets sold yet overseas.
Do you a) Realize that even if the marketing budget brought the movie's total budget to $100 million, it would still be successful? and b) There have been plenty of tickets sold overseas and it has made $32 million overseas, on top of the $31 million that is made domestically for a worldwide total of $63 million.

Maybe back up your arguments with some logic and evidence. What? Did you think they were just going to wait a few months before releasing it overseas?

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0949731/releaseinfo
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  #3882  
Old 06-15-2008, 05:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gordon View Post
Do you a) Realize how extensive the marketing budget was for it? and b) That there have been no tickets sold yet overseas.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gyro_44 View Post
From Variety Newsletter:

Overseas, "Happening" narrowly beat "Hulk" in grossing an estimated $32.1 million from 5,714 runs. "Hulk," playing in far fewer locations, grossed $31 million from 3,165.
.
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  #3883  
Old 06-15-2008, 05:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gordon View Post
Do you a) Realize how extensive the marketing budget was for it? and b) That there have been no tickets sold yet overseas.
Hmm your going to end up being wrong about this , even if you add in 50 million for advertising the movie has already made almost 65 million worldwide in its first weekend. Its going to be a financial success when DVD sales are counted in. I do expect it to drop like a rock next weekend but by that time it will have probably between 80-100 million in the bank worldwide.
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  #3884  
Old 06-15-2008, 05:26 PM
Looks like I underestimated Hulk. Not by much, though.

Happening...ugh. Fox can market any turd.
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  #3885  
Old 06-15-2008, 06:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by detective mills View Post
Weekend Estimates from Moviecitynews:

1. The Incredible Hulk 54.9 - 54.9
2. Kung Fu Panda 33.8 -44% 117.4
3. The Happening 30.8 - 30.8
4. Don't Mess With Zohan 16.4 -57% 68.8
5. Indiana Jones 13.2 -42% 275.0
6. Sex and the City 10.3 -51% 120.1
7. Iron Man 5.1 -32% 297.4
8. The Strangers 4.1 -54% 45.4
9. Prince Caspian 3.1 -45% 131.8
10. What Happens in Vegas 1.7 -51% 75.8
The Incredible Hulk has become The Incredible Success. Kung Fu Panda still kicking ass athe box office. The Happening did happen or not?
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  #3886  
Old 06-15-2008, 06:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MidnightAngel View Post
The Happening did happen or not?
Oh it happened.
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  #3887  
Old 06-15-2008, 11:48 PM
Ok how is incredible hulk a success? it only made 54 million ? less then the first film and while i wish it would do better business ,but as it stands i expect a good 60 percent drop for hulk next weekend. I don't even think hulk will recoup it's 150 million dollars stateside and even it's worldwide figures probably won't cross 150 million.

The happening is also going to drop 60 percent next weekend.

And for everyone that keeps bringing up worldwide figures ....

new line cinema invested 180 million in Golden compass that film went on to gross 70 million in the us.a and 302 million overseas... New line still ended up getting shafted and relocated into nothingness over at wb. Remember this next time you bring UP it still will be a success.

Studios don't look at worldwide figures when deciding the fate of the franchise or viablitity. just because a film makes 372 million like golden compass doesn't mean New line cinema received that money.....

Right now Universal is saying" is Hulk worth investing another 150 million for another film? As of right now if i was a producer the answer would be NO. Thank you ANG LEE for tainting hulk

next i am going to hear someone say SPEED RACER is going to be a success just wait for dvd and worldwide figures
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  #3888  
Old 06-16-2008, 12:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Samfilms View Post
even it's worldwide figures probably won't cross 150 million.
Wow there fella, slow down now. The Incredible Hulk will make $150 million worldwide with ease.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Samfilms View Post
And for everyone that keeps bringing up worldwide figures ....
What, you think they don't matter? They matter just as much as domestic numbers, we're just more prone to seeing the domestic numbers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Samfilms View Post
Studios don't look at worldwide figures when deciding the fate of the franchise or viablitity. just because a film makes 372 million like golden compass doesn't mean New line cinema received that money.....
They don't receive all of the money obviously, but it's not like that money just gets thrown in the ocean. If a movie makes $50 million domestically, and $50 million overseas, the company is going to receive just as much money from the domestic as it is overseas.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Samfilms View Post
next i am going to hear someone say SPEED RACER is going to be a success just wait for dvd and worldwide figures
Trust me, we've already deemed that won't happen. That's a completely different scenario.

Last edited by Bourne101; 06-16-2008 at 12:35 AM..
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  #3889  
Old 06-16-2008, 01:17 AM
of course they count when they receive the over seas money in like 3 years from now after the studio has gone to hell because , as you are aware like here Theater chains , distributers and etc get a percantage of the money , as well as actors that make another percentage of the box office.

Example a high successful film like Rain man was not very profitable in the long run.

lets take for example RUSH HOUR 3 140 million budget

domestic gross 140 million , over seas gross 114 million total gross 255 million - production budget 140 million -marketing and advertisment let say 25 million= 90 million oh wait what about Chris Tucker backdoor deal that is high 40 million =50 million , what about jackie chans back door deal 20 million =30 millions bret ratners back door deal 15 million =15 million , oh wait what about extra expenses and backdoor deals =0 million , but dvd will make them some money sure but not enough to offset the losses.... RUSH HOUR 3 not very profitable same shit happen to golden Compass and the reason New line is no more. And here New line recieved all the profits from worldwide gross as you guys like to say in this example

Last edited by Samfilms; 06-16-2008 at 01:19 AM..
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  #3890  
Old 06-16-2008, 02:46 AM
Like it or not, domestic box office is the measuring bar that is used to determine a film's success. Almost every movie makes a profit, but the US ticket sales are what determine whether a flick gets called a bomb or a hit.

THE INCREDIBLE HULK had a solid opening. Not phenomenal, but perfectly good. The problem is that the summer field is so competitive that it's impossible to predict its staying power. PRINCE CASPIAN was a movie that would probably have been quite a success if not for the bottomless vortex that is IRON MAN continuing to draw in really unexpected totals at the same time, plus getting upstaged by KINGDOM OF THE CRYSTAL SKULL the next week.

Studios have GOT to get this budget inflation problem under control. A movie with a $54 million opening weekend shouldnt' be worrying about recouping it's costs.
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  #3891  
Old 06-16-2008, 10:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Samfilms View Post
same shit happen to golden Compass and the reason New line is no more. And here New line recieved all the profits from worldwide gross as you guys like to say in this example


Yes I am quite sure the only reason New Line went under is just because of The Golden Compass. Terminator 3 made crap money domestically yet kicked ass worldwide and wouldn't you know it , they aren't doing just 1 sequel but a damn trilogy lmao. And with no Arnie to boot. Trust me , the studios care a great deal about overseas money. And you totally are underestimating dvd income , I am sure Rush Hour 3 has made somewhere north of 100 million on DVD sales alone and thats not to mention tv deals etc.
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  #3892  
Old 06-16-2008, 10:40 AM
It's silly to assert that The Happening won't make money. It will. It's going to drop fast. It had a huge Friday-to-Saturday plunge and the Yahoo movies rating is an abysmal C-. But eventually it'll turn a profit. Apparently mainstream moviegoers were sold by the marketing, so nice job Fox, and it seems that there is plenty of audience out there for multiple movies every weekend.

The Incredible Hulk's opening is good, but its success is to be determined. So much depends on its legs.
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  #3893  
Old 06-16-2008, 10:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ender View Post
Studios have GOT to get this budget inflation problem under control. A movie with a $54 million opening weekend shouldnt' be worrying about recouping it's costs.
There was a time when a $3 million opening was great for a movie with a $50 million budget.

The Hulk should do fine. The word of mouth is great. School is out, the teens are out. I know it was on 4 or 5 screens at the theater I went too, and the place was packed. I believe a lot of people hated the first one so much, and didn't want to take the chance on this one, but word of mouth is changing opinions now.
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  #3894  
Old 06-16-2008, 11:24 AM
Somebody may have already mentioned this, but Zohan had a much bigger second weekend drop than Sandler's comedies typically have. People must not like it very much. 57% is a bad drop. Chuck & Larry had a 44% drop and Click 50%. It will be lucky to hit $100 million now, and if it does, it won't be by much.

Last edited by MadsenOMC; 06-16-2008 at 11:28 AM..
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  #3895  
Old 06-16-2008, 08:48 PM
Ok so some is going to compare Terminator 3 ? to incredible hulk? Let see

Terminator SUCCESS Terminator 2 Success Terminator 3? mediocre success? VIABLE franchise? YES!!!!!

Hulk Failure incredibl hulk (as of right now) Mediocre success Viable Franchise to be determined by next weekend.

Terminator in NAME alone is freaking GOLD Whether they make a trilogy though is to be determined i mean Part 4 could suck ass and the trilogy is dead before it starts. No Arnold ( main reason for going to see these movies was him) No James CAMERON involvement( the genius behind him) MCG (the worst thing to happen to celluloid). So anything can happen with that franchise. Heck WB gave Wachoski Speed racer after Revolution hit the gutter.

WB is also cutting production down by 50 percent you know why??? because to many pictures crash and burning them.
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  #3896  
Old 06-17-2008, 07:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by shoe1985 View Post
The Hulk should do fine. I believe a lot of people hated the first one so much, and didn't want to take the chance on this one, but word of mouth is changing opinions now.
Batman Begins anyone?


I remember i couldnt get anyone i knew to see that at first simply because BATMAN AND ROBIN was the last movie they had seen and they thought it was more of the same.
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  #3897  
Old 06-18-2008, 11:07 PM
TIH needs to get $9 million for the next two days. That would put it over $75 million, and hopefully as safe a zone as possible for weekend 2. Weekend 2 is really crucial for this movie to make a statement and not look like the 2003 movie.
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  #3898  
Old 06-19-2008, 12:20 AM
From Variety:

Quote:
'Iron Man' bolts past $300 million
First to pass the mark domestically in 2008

By Carl DiOrio

June 19, 2008, 12:00 AM

Paramount's "Iron Man" becomes 2008's first $300 million domestic grosser Thursday.

Through Tuesday, the Marvel-produced comic book adaptation had rung up an estimated $299.3 million in the U.S. and Canada. And with recent daily grosses for "Iron Man" of no less than $680,000, there was no question about its blowing past the rarefied $300 million mark Thursday.

"(This) is a testament to the talented, hardworking group involved with this picture," Par vice chairman Rob Moore said. "Needless to say, we are all thrilled with such an amazing achievement."

Marvel Studios chairman David Maisel called the milestone "the perfect way to kick off" Marvel Entertainment's new production venture. The sophomore production from Marvel Studios -- the Universal-distributed action pic "The Incredible Hulk" -- debuted last weekend with $55.4 million.

Sony's "Spider-Man 3," which grossed $336.5 million domestically to top 2007 boxoffice rankings, was the first film to cross the $300 million threshold, managing the feat in just 23 days after its May 4 bow. Though "Iron Man" required 51 days to reach a similar mark, its achievement was much less anticipated before the Robert Downey Jr. starrer's unspooling on May 1.

Last May kick-started two other $300 million grossers: the Paramount-distributed "Shrek the Third" from DreamWorks Animation ($322.7 million) and Disney's "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" ($309.4 million).

Among summer 2008's other big openers, Par's "Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull" is another clear $300 million candidate, with $279.5 million through Tuesday. "Skull" has also grossed $359 million internationally, with the Steven Spielberg pic still to open in the lucrative Japan market this weekend.

"Iron Man" has grossed $250 million internationally for a worldwide haul of more than $550 million. The franchise-launching action pic is set for a September bow in Japan.
Holy! Japan doesn't get Iron Man until September!?!
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  #3899  
Old 06-19-2008, 12:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Samfilms View Post
Ok so some is going to compare Terminator 3 ? to incredible hulk? Let see

Terminator SUCCESS Terminator 2 Success Terminator 3? mediocre success? VIABLE franchise? YES!!!!!

Hulk Failure incredibl hulk (as of right now) Mediocre success Viable Franchise to be determined by next weekend.

Terminator in NAME alone is freaking GOLD Whether they make a trilogy though is to be determined i mean Part 4 could suck ass and the trilogy is dead before it starts. No Arnold ( main reason for going to see these movies was him) No James CAMERON involvement( the genius behind him) MCG (the worst thing to happen to celluloid). So anything can happen with that franchise. Heck WB gave Wachoski Speed racer after Revolution hit the gutter.

WB is also cutting production down by 50 percent you know why??? because to many pictures crash and burning them.
Was just pointing out that the domestic failure of T3 did not stop the company from deciding to make 3 more movie sequels. Hell even the Terminator tv show got luke warm ratings and was almost cancelled and they are still going foward with the movies. Why? Because overseas money counts a lot and so do DVD sales.
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  #3900  
Old 06-19-2008, 01:37 PM
Indy 4 was always a lock for 300 mil plus for me , IM was a surprise . I expect TDK to make a run at 300 , and maybe Hancock . I am Legend made about 240 mil , and it was rated r , this one has a friendlier rating , it should do even better . So there is a chance that we will have 4 300 mil films this summer . 300 is the new 200 it seems , it's not as hard to reach it as it was in the past , and more movies are crossing that barrier .

I hope the Hulk holds up well , i definitely want to see another one .
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  #3901  
Old 06-19-2008, 01:49 PM
Just a clarification, I Am Legend was not rated R.
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  #3902  
Old 06-19-2008, 01:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
Just a clarification, I Am Legend was not rated R.
OOps .
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  #3903  
Old 06-21-2008, 12:27 PM
Friday estimates (moviecitynews.com)

1. Get Smart - 13.6 mil
2. Incredible Hulk - 6.7 mil
3. Kung Fu Panda - 6.1 mil
4. The Love Guru - 5.4 mil
5. The Happening - 3.2 mil
6. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - 2.2 mil
7. You Don't Mess With the Zohan - 2.2 mil
8. Sex and the City - 2.1 mil
9. Iron Man - 1.1 mil
10. The Strangers - .6 mil

Good numbers for Get Smart, disappointing for The Love Guru. Hulk and Happening plummet -- pretty much a given for the latter, but the big green giant falling so fast doesn't bode well for legs even if the drop isn't as precipitous as the '03 version.
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  #3904  
Old 06-21-2008, 12:30 PM
Good for Get Smart - I really enjoyed the flick. Bad Incredible Hulk and Love Guru . . . though the latter was kind of expected.
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  #3905  
Old 06-21-2008, 12:48 PM
That's a steep drop for Hulk and Happening , at least Happening may have a better chance of recouping it's production budget , Hulk should too , but the numbers are disappointing . Then again , we still have to see what type of jump it has today , it can still possibly eek out 22 mil maybe . Excellent reviews didn't seem to help it . I still hope we get a sequel .

Happening , yes , it's fully expected , but it's still should be considered a success , it needed that good opening to do any damage , and it did last weekend , that's good , i liked it .

The Guru is a bomb , a mild one , but i thought it could have done just a bit better , i guess when you have two sight gag fests on the same weekend ( that's how they are marketed them in the trailers , i haven't seen either ) , one will fail .

Get Smart was an easy pick for number one , but unless it has a big jump today i don't think it will break 40 mil like i predicted , there is a possibility though .

Panda is still sucking in the kiddie crowd , there's nothing else to compete with it for now , so it's not surprising .
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  #3906  
Old 06-21-2008, 01:07 PM
Ha. Fuck Mike Myers. that guy probably thinks now that everything he writes and stars in will make heap loads of money, but they don't anymore. good to see people went to see Get Smart.

The Happening's major drop was predictable, Hulk barely stayed around.

Wall-E, Kung Fu Panda, and Get Smart are going to duke it out for kid supermecy next week.
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  #3907  
Old 06-21-2008, 01:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by thedudeman69 View Post

Wall-E, Kung Fu Panda, and Get Smart are going to duke it out for kid supermecy next week.
thats not much of a fight... Wall-E will most assuredly take top place next weekend, by a large margin... and Wanted will do quite well i think against it in a nice counter programming release... plus Wanted looks fucking amazing!
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  #3908  
Old 06-21-2008, 01:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SkyNet View Post
thats not much of a fight... Wall-E will most assuredly take top place next weekend, by a large margin... and Wanted will do quite well i think against it in a nice counter programming release... plus Wanted looks fucking amazing!
I think Wanted looks and sounds like a bad matrix rip off. I mean just put morpheus sunglasses on Morgan Freeman, and you got The Matrix.
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  #3909  
Old 06-21-2008, 03:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by thedudeman69 View Post
I think Wanted looks and sounds like a bad matrix rip off. I mean just put morpheus sunglasses on Morgan Freeman, and you got The Matrix.
Doesn't look much like the Matrix at all. The stories are quite a bit different and Wanted is much more brutal. The great reviews have me pretty stoked to see it next weekend, along with Wall-E which looks absolutely amazing.
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  #3910  
Old 06-21-2008, 03:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lazy Boy View Post
Friday estimates (moviecitynews.com)

1. Get Smart - 13.6 mil
2. Incredible Hulk - 6.7 mil
3. Kung Fu Panda - 6.1 mil
4. The Love Guru - 5.4 mil
5. The Happening - 3.2 mil
6. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - 2.2 mil
7. You Don't Mess With the Zohan - 2.2 mil
8. Sex and the City - 2.1 mil
9. Iron Man - 1.1 mil
10. The Strangers - .6 mil
Solid for Get Smart, although with the production budget it has it is going to need some strong legs and some good overseas numbers to make it a success. The Incredible Hulk dropped as I predicted, but should have around $95 million domestic by the end of the weekend, and is already at $115 million worldwide. I think when all is said and done, DVD sales, worldwide numbers etc. The Incredible Hulk will be alright. Kung Fu Panda is kicking major ass and may end up with $200 million. It's nearly there in worldwide numbers. The Love Guru put up disappointing numbers, and were lower than I expected. Mike Myers needs to write some better material. Another Austin Powers would be better than this. The Happening had an expected steep drop, but is kicking mucho ass worldwide and is close to surpassing its budget domestically (it already has worldwide). The Zohan has put up disappointing numbers since opening weekend, and will end up making less than the Sandler comedies of the past few years. It will still end up crossing the $100 million mark, but barely.
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  #3911  
Old 06-21-2008, 08:33 PM
Box Office Mojo lists The Love Guru's production budget at $62 million!? To me it looks like one of those cheaply made comedies that'll no doubt recoup it's money back theatrically, then the DVD release is all gravy.

Last edited by MisterChristian; 06-21-2008 at 08:35 PM..
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  #3912  
Old 06-22-2008, 12:18 AM
Bourne, the production budget for Get Smart is $80 million according to Boxofficemojo. I'd say a ballpark opening of $40 million is going to be a very good start for the film.

That's a pretty painful number for The Incredible Hulk. It's not going to drop as fast as Ang Lee's version did, but it might end up collecting $22 million or so this weekend, which is about a 60% drop. Most people seem to be liking the film, so I'm wondering whether it will level out quickly with good word-of-mouth from people encouraging the skeptical to go see it, or continue to have huge drops.

The Happening also totally collapsed. No surprise because the word of mouth is toxic. $10 million or so this weekend is close to a 70% drop. Although, it will already be at $50 million domestic.

Kung Fu Panda is doing great, I think it's going to cruise past $200 million, do maybe $225-235. Indy should make another $8-9 million, putting it at about $290m. Iron Man is going to manage another $4 million or so, so it's barely falling from last week at all.
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  #3913  
Old 06-22-2008, 01:00 AM
I'm glad Get Smart did well. I want a sequel dammit! Looks like I could get one.
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  #3914  
Old 06-22-2008, 01:36 AM
I'm going to call it for next week :

Wall-E
Wanted
Get Smart
Incredible Hulk
Kung Fu Panda



I'm sad to see KFP dropping so soon.

It's easily my favorite Dreamworks movie ever released.


I'm happy as all heck Love Guru tanked as badly as it did.. it looked atrocious, and The Happening continues to plummet.
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  #3915  
Old 06-22-2008, 02:09 AM
A.D.B. :

Wall - E is easily going to own Wanted

I see it making 70 - 80 millon easy.
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  #3916  
Old 06-22-2008, 02:10 AM
Guess Paramount should have blinked on the release date for "The Love Guru".
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  #3917  
Old 06-22-2008, 04:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by thedudeman69 View Post
A.D.B. :

I see it making 70 - 80 millon easy.
I fully agree Wall-E's going to eat Wanted alive.

I'll take that and raise you to 82-85.

Cars made $60m opening weekend, at least according to BOM, and it wasn't nearly accessible humor wise to a lot of people.

Wall-E looks like he'll be a universal charmer.

That alone makes me think eighty-two to eighty-five million in its opening weekend.
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  #3918  
Old 06-22-2008, 09:39 AM
So Happy Love Guru did bad. This was their only chance too, Next week is Wall-E, Wanted. They're screwed. YAY!
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  #3919  
Old 06-22-2008, 12:49 PM
Weekend Estimates

1. Get Smart- $39.2 million
2. Kung Fu Panda- $21.7 million
3. The Incredible Hulk- $21.6 million
4. The Love Guru- $14 million
5. The Happening- $10 million
6. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull- $8.5 million
7. You Don't Mess with the Zohan- $7.2 million
8. Sex and the City- $6.5 million
9. Iron Man- $4 million
10. The Strangers- $2 million

Get Smart did well and should be quite successful if it has some strong holds and does well overseas. Kung Fu Panda is kicking mucho ass, and it will be interesting to see how it holds up against Wall-E. The Incredible Hulk dropped pretty badly although it has nearly crossed its production budget worldwide. The Love Guru did poorly. The Happening dropped hard but will ultimately be successful. Indiana Jones is still putting up solid numbers and will be past the $300 million mark very soon. The Zohan has proven to be very front loaded but will cross the $100 million mark soon. Sex and the City is a huge success. Iron Man is huge and if it continues to have small drops like this, it could finish with nearly $320 million. The Strangers is at the $50 million mark and has made 5 times its budget domestically.

Last edited by Bourne101; 06-22-2008 at 12:55 PM..
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  #3920  
Old 06-22-2008, 12:52 PM
I contributed to the Get Smart tally on Friday. Really enjoyed it, but I'm a big fan of Steve Carell, so it's little wonder. Love Guru tanking was no surprise and I believe The Incredible Hulk's tally is behind that of Ang Lee's flick from a few years ago.
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