#3921  
Old 06-22-2008, 02:05 PM
I was pretty close with Smart , Hulk and Panda , but i totally blew it with the rest , Happening and Guru . I didn't think Happening would drop That far , and i thought Guru could at least stumble it's way to the high teens . .

Next weekend , i couldn't say yet , but 80 mil sounds about right . Now since i tend to overestimate , i'll go with 70 mil for Wall E .

I think Smart can hold on to the second spot also , because i'm not sold on Wanted , although i'm sure with all it's fancy visuals and Jolie mugging up a storm and showing some skin , 20 mil is in order .

Wall E - 70.4 mil

Get Smart - 22.3 mil

Wanted - 20.5

Panda - 12.4 mil

Hulk - 11.8 mil
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  #3922  
Old 06-22-2008, 02:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigred760 View Post
The Incredible Hulk's tally is behind that of Ang Lee's flick from a few years ago.

Its no surprise since many people think its a part 2 to that movie rather then a restart.

I kinda liked the original but it seems to have left a really bad taste in many peoples mouths.
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  #3923  
Old 06-22-2008, 02:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dellamorte dellamore View Post
I was pretty close with Smart , Hulk and Panda , but i totally blew it with the rest , Happening and Guru . I didn't think Happening would drop That far , and i thought Guru could at least stumble it's way to the high teens . .

Next weekend , i couldn't say yet , but 80 mil sounds about right . Now since i tend to overestimate , i'll go with 70 mil for Wall E .

I think Smart can hold on to the second spot also , because i'm not sold on Wanted , although i'm sure with all it's fancy visuals and Jolie mugging up a storm and showing some skin , 20 mil is in order .

Wall E - 70.4 mil

Get Smart - 22.3 mil

Wanted - 20.5

Panda - 12.4 mil

Hulk - 11.8 mil

I think Wall E will be in first as well but then in second will be Wanted with around 35 million or more.
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  #3924  
Old 06-22-2008, 04:01 PM
I was expecting a lot more for love guru!
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  #3925  
Old 06-22-2008, 09:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RandalGraves View Post
I was expecting a lot more for love guru!
Yup;an 11th spot.

I'm happy that The Love Guru tanked badly and now it's named The Flop Guru. Keep greenlighting and releasing shitty comedies that suck ass!
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  #3926  
Old 06-23-2008, 05:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dellamorte dellamore View Post
I was pretty close with Smart , Hulk and Panda , but i totally blew it with the rest , Happening and Guru . I didn't think Happening would drop That far , and i thought Guru could at least stumble it's way to the high teens . .

Next weekend , i couldn't say yet , but 80 mil sounds about right . Now since i tend to overestimate , i'll go with 70 mil for Wall E .

I think Smart can hold on to the second spot also , because i'm not sold on Wanted , although i'm sure with all it's fancy visuals and Jolie mugging up a storm and showing some skin , 20 mil is in order .

Wall E - 70.4 mil

Get Smart - 22.3 mil

Wanted - 20.5

Panda - 12.4 mil

Hulk - 11.8 mil
I think you're right on the money with "WALL-E"; your numbers would put it right in the "Incredibles"/"Nemo" range. In fact, I'd say that $75 mil is a possibility - it looks REALLY good. Always a good indicator with Disney/Pixar films: the merchandise is FLYING off the shelves, even before the movie has come out. Retailers are stating that the merchandise may even surpass "Cars" levels of popularity - and even "Cars" opened at over $60 mil among mediocre reviews. Disney's got another hit on their hands, no doubt about it.

"Wanted", however, I completely disagree with you on - I'll be shocked if it opens at less than $40 mil. It's getting great reviews (100% on Rotten Tomatoes so far!), the trailers are awesome, and the all-out marketing blitz the studio has been doing lately has the awareness level very high - much higher than it was with Get Smart. Honestly, I don't think a $50+ mil opening weekend is out of the question; I've been saying for a while that "Wanted" is going to be the major surprise hit of the summer movie season. Granted, anything above $20 mil is an instant win for the studio, since it's got a much smaller budget than some of the other comic book movies out this year - but I think it's gonna be a money train.
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  #3927  
Old 06-23-2008, 07:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shockwave View Post
Its no surprise since many people think its a part 2 to that movie rather then a restart.

I kinda liked the original but it seems to have left a really bad taste in many peoples mouths.
It was in the 3rd week that Lee's Hulk really started to drop though (if I remember correctly); it didn't have any legs at all. I still think this new one will outdo Lee's.
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  #3928  
Old 06-24-2008, 01:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigred760 View Post
It was in the 3rd week that Lee's Hulk really started to drop though (if I remember correctly); it didn't have any legs at all. I still think this new one will outdo Lee's.
I checked BOM's comparison between the two Hulks, and the new one is not too far off (3M at most it looks like) from its predecessor. I think it will do better in theaters and do well on DVD.

My estimates for next Friday's releases:

Wall-E: 60-70M (could be as high as 80)

Wanted: 25-30 (not too keen on this one, but the cast is solid and its been promoted constantly)

Last edited by corran horn; 06-24-2008 at 01:04 PM..
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  #3929  
Old 06-26-2008, 09:40 AM
I don't think the opening for Get Smart is anything special. It's fine, but it was released ultra-wide in 4,000 theaters and had a heavy marketing campaign behind it. Plus, The Love Guru proved to be no competition with its pathetic opening. I suppose Kung Fu Panda's strong holds may have hurt it a bit, but $38.6 million doesn't strike me as anything close to a great opening weekend for Get Smart.

The Inc. Hulk may actually end its run with a number extremely close to that of The Hulk's. I don't think separating itself from the much-maligned Hulk was an easy task, but it was quite expensive to produce and a final domestic number less than the production budget has to be a little disappointing.

So that's three Shyamalan movies in a row that suffered a drop of 60% or more. Not something I'd want to be known for. It almost negates a good opening weekend. If your movie opens well but only manages a final tally that's double the opening weekend, well, the opening weekend looks much less impressive. Much like The Village, a strong marketing campaign got people into theaters, but after that, a very steep plummet. The people just didn't like it.
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  #3930  
Old 06-26-2008, 12:54 PM
Wall-E: $82 million
Wanted: $33 million

Last edited by Jon Lyrik; 06-26-2008 at 03:32 PM..
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  #3931  
Old 06-26-2008, 01:26 PM
Tracking right now has Wall-E at $52-$57 million, and Wanted at around $40 million. I just can't see Wanted being THAT close to Wall-E. I would be very surprised is Wall-E only made that much. It's hard to track the kiddies, and I'd say that's exactly what's happened here.
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  #3932  
Old 06-26-2008, 01:29 PM
I was wrong about Hulk , it seems that possibly , there was an Ang Lee effect at work , and it was difficult for the studio to distinguish itself from his version . That's simply conjecture , because maybe the mysterious word of mouth wasn't that great , i couldn't say but i'm thinking they accomplished what they set out to do , and that was restart the franchise the way they felt it should have been originally .

I can see the sequel making even more money , and i can't wait .
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  #3933  
Old 06-26-2008, 03:33 PM
Hulk's drop was 60% in face of good WOM. Universal can't catch a break.

I think the demos for Wanted are overloaded, so nothing crazy for it. And RS tracking sucks, use MT, trust me.
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  #3934  
Old 06-27-2008, 09:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jon Lyrik View Post
Hulk's drop was 60% in face of good WOM. Universal can't catch a break.

I think the demos for Wanted are overloaded, so nothing crazy for it. And RS tracking sucks, use MT, trust me.
For those of us unfamiliar with tracking, what do RS and MT refer to? They've been mentioned on Steve Mason's Fantasy Moguls site, but no one ever says what they are.
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  #3935  
Old 06-27-2008, 09:18 PM
It has begun.

Quote:
The Dark Knight is Already Poised to Shatter Records!


June 27, 2008
by Alex Billington

We're completely in the thick of the summer movie season now and excitement for numerous upcoming films is starting to boil over. You might remember a rather interesting article I wrote last weekend titled: The Financial Success of The Dark Knight. In it, I discussed the potential for The Dark Knight's incredible financial success and in turn started a heated discussion in the comments about how much money The Dark Knight might end up making. An e-mail hit my inbox today with some rather exciting news. "As of June 27th, Dark Knight has sold eight times as many tickets on MovieTickets.com as Spider-Man 3 at the same point in the sales cycle 21 days from the film's official release." Yes, this movie is going to be big, very big. It's already poised to shatter records and we've still got 21 more days.


The e-mail came from MovieTickets.com's public relations representative and is completely accurate. Let me remind you that Spider-Man 3 currently holds the world record for the biggest opening weekend at $151 million in three days. The Dark Knight has already surpassed ticket sales of Spider-Man 3 at 21 days in advance - that is a strong indication that this movie is easily going to shatter records. Add in this news from SlashFilm as well: Fandango reports that midnight showings on their site are already selling out. I haven't felt this confident in how big the opening weekend of a film will be since 300 changed Hollywood forever with its record-breaking March opening weekend.


Now I won't exactly claim that I think The Dark Knight is going to beat Spider-Man 3, per se, but I have a feeling it will break some records. Passing Spidey's three day weekend total is going to be tough. Even Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest, at $135 million, didn't even come that close. Everyone seems to be under the impression that the dark, anti-family nature of the film and it's 150-minute running time are going to hurt its box office. Guess what? They won't. And this information right here is early proof. Get ready for one hell of an incredible July. Everyone who has doubted the potential for The Dark Knight is going to be shocked to see the film shatter all of their perceptions of how the Hollywood system works. That's how big and how powerful The Dark Knight truly is!
http://www.firstshowing.net/2008/06/...atter-records/
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  #3936  
Old 06-28-2008, 07:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Worthystevens View Post
Wow.
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  #3937  
Old 06-28-2008, 09:10 AM
It's going to make at least 50 mil opening day , and that includes the midnite shows . Then , i don't know 65 mil for Saturday , then another 45 for Sunday .

I see they are aggressively marketing the film to the younger set , they are making Batman and Joker somewhat kid friendly in the ads i've been seeing on cartoon network and the like . Even without the kids though , it's raking in some massive duckets , the kid contingent will only help , although some parents may be apprehensive about exposing their kids to a portrayal of a psychotic man who dresses up like a demented clown .


It's going to be huge , i don't see how it won't cross 300 mil , just not sure how far above that it will go . This is going to have tons of repeat viewings , just the first weekend alone , i know i'll probably watch it at least 3 times opening weekend . Maybe more .

Last edited by dellamorte dellamore; 06-28-2008 at 09:12 AM..
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  #3938  
Old 06-28-2008, 09:24 AM
Fantasymoguls has Wall-E at $23M and Wanted at $18.5M estimates for friday.
Looks like Wanted will make about $50M and Wall-E around $65. Great numbers for both, especially Wanted.
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  #3939  
Old 06-28-2008, 09:36 AM
At least my Wall E prediction will be close , but i blew it big time with Wanted .
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  #3940  
Old 06-28-2008, 11:22 AM
Friday numbers (boxofficemojo.com)

1. Wall-E - 23.3 mil
2. Wanted - 18.8 mil
3. Get Smart - 6.6 mil
4. Kung Fu Panda - 3.5 mil
5. The Incredible Hulk - 2.8 mil
6. The Love Guru - 1.9 mil
7. Indiana Jones - 1.4 mil
8. Sex and the City - 1.2 mil
9. The Happening - 1.2 mil
10. You Don't Mess With the Zohan - 1 mil

Good number for Wall-E, should definitely increase over the weekend. An excellent number for Wanted, the advertising really paid off, though I can see it being frontloaded and dropping over the weekend. The Hulk and Happening continue to freefall -- other than that, same ol'.
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  #3941  
Old 06-28-2008, 11:28 AM
Wall-E will have the largest Pixar opening of all-time. It's Friday numbers are higher than both Finding Nemo and The Incredibles. Wanted opened way better than I expected. For an R-rated film, that's bloody huge. Get Smart should have around a 50% drop, which is alright considering Wall-E and Wanted are taking both the kid, teen, and adult crowd in a big way.
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  #3942  
Old 06-28-2008, 11:29 AM
Well I'm immediately drawn to the number for Wanted. That is HUGE. It's going to have an opening around $50 million.

Not to say that Wall-E's number isn't also good - it's very, very good and it should have at least $70 million at the end of the weekend.

Get Smart should land at about $20-22 million and have a little less than a 50% drop. Indiana Jones has a good shot at passing $300 million on Sunday. And The Happening countinues to fall apart, it's probably going to drop another 60% this weekend.
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  #3943  
Old 06-28-2008, 12:23 PM
Very impressive for the 'W' movies. Get Smart's drop is not suprising considering the new competition.
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  #3944  
Old 06-28-2008, 01:19 PM
Wow. Wanted made more than I thought. I guess people still like matrix type movies.
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  #3945  
Old 06-28-2008, 01:31 PM
i kind of figured Wanted would have a strong opening... for one, the advertising has been pretty good, the trailers make people want to see it... and it is just a GREAT Counter Programming release!

You have Wall-E this G rated Pixar flick, that draws the parents with the kids.. it draws the couples... lets face it.. Pixar draws EVERYONE!

and then you have this R rated violent action picture... Wanted is a night time flick, where as Wall-E is a daytime flick! Adults want to see some Action, violence, blood.... and then they want to take their kids, nieces, nephews to the funny family flick!
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  #3946  
Old 06-28-2008, 03:22 PM
Good for Disney and Universal. Both movies are gonna earn big. Too bad for The Incredible Hulk that continues to drop. I don't know if another Hulk movie is gonna happen. And speaking of Disney i hope Wall-E gross more at the box office than its last Pixar films Cars and Rattatoile.
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  #3947  
Old 06-28-2008, 06:41 PM
I saw Wanted earlier and was suprised by the number of seniors watching it. None of them left. They sat through the whole film...
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  #3948  
Old 06-28-2008, 06:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterChristian View Post
I saw Wanted earlier and was suprised by the number of seniors watching it. None of them left. They sat through the whole film...
I noticed the same thing when I saw it. Who's bringing in the old people? Jolie? Freeman?
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  #3949  
Old 06-28-2008, 08:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterChristian View Post
I saw Wanted earlier and was suprised by the number of seniors watching it. None of them left. They sat through the whole film...
Haha I noticed the same thing. There were two elderly women sitting directly in front of me when I saw it. I couldn't tell if they were enjoying it or not, but they didn't leave.
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  #3950  
Old 06-29-2008, 12:32 AM
So happy to see Wanted do well. That movie was an effing blast! And we just don't get enough bloody, R rated action movies anymore.
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  #3951  
Old 06-29-2008, 09:12 AM
Yeah, the seniors demand more carnage on the big screen!
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  #3952  
Old 06-29-2008, 11:13 AM
Weekend Estimates

1. Wall-E- $62.5 million
2. Wanted- $51.2 million
3. Get Smart- $20 million
4. Kung Fu Panda- $11.8 million
5. The Incredible Hulk- $9.3 million
6. The Love Guru- $5.5 million
7. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull- $5.1 million
8. The Happening- $4 million
9. Sex and the City- $3.8 million
10. You Don't Mess With The Zohan- $3.2 million

Great for Wall-E, I mean it's going to have extremely small drops, but I am very surprised at how it dropped from Friday to Saturday. Doesn't usually happen with kids movies. Wanted is a fucking smash hit and had a higher PTA than Wall-E! That's fucking crazy! Get Smart held up pretty well in the shadow of Wall-E and Wanted. Kung Fu Panda had a bigger drop than in previous weeks, obviously due to Wall-E, but it is still doing very well. The Incredible Hulk had another big drop and will be lucky to reach the amount that Ang Lee's version made. The Love Guru dropped like a bomb. Indy is at the $300 million mark. The Happening had another steep drop, but surpassed its budget domestically and has doubled it worldwide.

Last edited by Bourne101; 06-29-2008 at 11:17 AM..
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  #3953  
Old 06-29-2008, 11:15 AM
Universal sold the fuck out of Wanted. That is a really impressive opening.
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  #3954  
Old 06-29-2008, 11:27 AM
I guess that was a perfect release date for Wanted, offering up a nice alternative to the more family oriented flicks that have flooded theatres recently. It does say a lot when an R-rated action flick trails a children's movie by only 11 million on their opening weekends.
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  #3955  
Old 06-29-2008, 11:36 AM
Yeah, but exactly one year ago motherfucking Die Hard 4, that has the whole name thing going, scraped in 33 million while Ratatouille got only 47 (I say only when compared to this year, while we're still in a recession).

It sort of takes the punch out of Wall E's opening when you realize it has a 180 million dollar production budget.
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  #3956  
Old 06-29-2008, 11:43 AM
There's three things that sold Wanted , and i should haven't been so naive to think they wouldn't have . Jolie's two breasts ( 20 mil each ) and the over the top action ( 10 mil ) .
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  #3957  
Old 06-29-2008, 12:11 PM
great numbers for Wall-E and Wanted (which i guess alot of us thought it was gonna fail)
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  #3958  
Old 06-29-2008, 03:18 PM
For those doubting Wall-E (don't know if there are any, but if there are) because it didn't open to $70+ million, stop doubting because the word of mouth is superb and Pixar films always have strong holds. Ratatouille couldn't even open to $50 million, and it went on to gross nearly $210 million. I think Wall-E will have even stronger holds as it has even more appeal than Ratatouille. Not to mention, worldwide numbers are going to be massive. Ratatouille made $620 million worldwide. Wall-E should make around $300 million domestically.
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  #3959  
Old 06-29-2008, 03:39 PM
I agree Bourne.

I guess the thinking nowadays is that if some films don't open to $75-100 million ("Wall-E only made $62 million? Poor opening"), then it underperformed?! <roll eyes>. Some films have what they call "legs" and Wall-E will be around for weeks to come, sucking up box-office dollars while others OPEN and fall very quickly.
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  #3960  
Old 06-29-2008, 03:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
Weekend Estimates

1. Wall-E- $62.5 million
2. Wanted- $51.2 million
3. Get Smart- $20 million
4. Kung Fu Panda- $11.8 million
5. The Incredible Hulk- $9.3 million
6. The Love Guru- $5.5 million
7. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull- $5.1 million
8. The Happening- $4 million
9. Sex and the City- $3.8 million
10. You Don't Mess With The Zohan- $3.2
And I guessed:

Quote:
Originally Posted by AndrewDB View Post
I'm going to call it for next week :

Wall-E
Wanted
Get Smart
Incredible Hulk
Kung Fu Panda

Not bad. I only flipped Hulk and Panda.
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