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Adobe claims to be 100% certain which summer blockbusters will flop

06.05.2014

I have always found it fun to try and predict which movies are going to be big each year. Sometimes a surprising movie becomes a hit while a sure thing is completely ignored by audiences. Part of the fun is in trying to figure out what will happen. But, movies are a business and operate by a particular set of rules. One company has taken those rules and figured out a formula for which flicks will succeed and which will fail miserably.

Adobe has put together and tested their formula known as the Adobe Digital Index (ADI) which measures social media and trailer views for films in the weeks leading up to release to determine whether it will exceed the production budget during it's domestic box office run. The ADI was tested last fall and Adobe claims a 100% accuracy after tested nine films including ENDER'S GAME, DELIVERY MAN, and 47 RONIN. So, what are their predictions for this summer?

According to their calculations, this weekend's EDGE OF TOMORROW will flop as will THE EXPENDABLES 3 and Brett Ratner's HERCULES starring Dwayne Johnson. They also preducted JUPITER ASCENDING would flop, but that film has been pushed to February 2015. On the positive side, the ADI says this summer's hit films will be THE FAULT IN OUR STARS, GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY, TRANSFORMERS: AGE OF EXTINCTION, THE PURGE: ANARCHY and HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON 2.

As a disclaimer, the ADI is not foolproof despite their 100% success claim. On one hand, they only measured criteria for these films from March 1 through May 10 of this year and several of these films did not have full trailers released by that time or were saving media releases for closer to their theatrical premieres. Plus, with studios looking more and more towards global box office, we cannot take these numbers as the be all end all.

In the end, movies like EDGE OF TOMORROW may not break the bank but they certainly can interest enough audiences worldwide to make them worth the risk. In a day and age when good movies flounder while generic formula flicks make tons of money, it would be nice to think that people go see movies that look good rather than consider numbers like these.

Go see EDGE OF TOMORROW when it opens in theaters, well, tomorrow.

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2:39PM on 06/05/2014
No idea why anyone would want to see Edge Of Tomorrow.
No idea why anyone would want to see Edge Of Tomorrow.
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8:22AM on 06/06/2014
Well, probably because, without being perfect, it's a very good way to spend some very good time at the theatre... And that's what I'm asking for from my summer blockbuster.
But that's just me.
Well, probably because, without being perfect, it's a very good way to spend some very good time at the theatre... And that's what I'm asking for from my summer blockbuster.
But that's just me.
8:39PM on 06/05/2014
Best of the summer? Really? Better than x-men huh... Don't think so
Best of the summer? Really? Better than x-men huh... Don't think so
3:50PM on 06/05/2014
People that say they had "fun" at the movies, usually mean, it was crap, but I liked it
People that say they had "fun" at the movies, usually mean, it was crap, but I liked it
3:17PM on 06/05/2014
Because it is a lot of fun and exactly why I go to the cinema.
Because it is a lot of fun and exactly why I go to the cinema.
3:17PM on 06/05/2014
Good movie for sure. Not that great. Best of the summer so far though
Good movie for sure. Not that great. Best of the summer so far though
3:13PM on 06/05/2014
Ohhh I see, its the same people who thought Pacific Rim was the greatest movie of all time last summer, question answered!
Ohhh I see, its the same people who thought Pacific Rim was the greatest movie of all time last summer, question answered!
3:04PM on 06/05/2014
the word from people that have seen it say its great
the word from people that have seen it say its great
2:57PM on 06/05/2014
You mean, no idea why anyone WOULDN'T want to see Edge of Tomorrow.
You mean, no idea why anyone WOULDN'T want to see Edge of Tomorrow.
2:55PM on 06/05/2014
I've seen it. It's a great blockbuster. It's awesome. It's fun. It's not a sequel. It has Tom Cruise and Emily Blunt. It has cool action, an interesting premise, cool visual effects.
I've seen it. It's a great blockbuster. It's awesome. It's fun. It's not a sequel. It has Tom Cruise and Emily Blunt. It has cool action, an interesting premise, cool visual effects.
2:51PM on 06/05/2014
Best blockbuster of the summer? Who is saying that? Edge of Tomorrow looks terrible.
Best blockbuster of the summer? Who is saying that? Edge of Tomorrow looks terrible.
2:42PM on 06/05/2014
Other than the majority of reviews saying that it's awesome and possibly the best blockbuster of the summer? Yeah, no idea why anyone would want to see something original and exciting
Other than the majority of reviews saying that it's awesome and possibly the best blockbuster of the summer? Yeah, no idea why anyone would want to see something original and exciting
3:04PM on 06/05/2014
The movie looks amazing and Cruise rarely (if ever) dissapoints. Hope it kicks ass at the Box Office this weekend and I can't wait to have my mind blown seeing this IMAX 3D.

I mean what MORE could you ask for with a big, fun blockbuster like this, with one of today's biggest stars (if not biggest).
The movie looks amazing and Cruise rarely (if ever) dissapoints. Hope it kicks ass at the Box Office this weekend and I can't wait to have my mind blown seeing this IMAX 3D.

I mean what MORE could you ask for with a big, fun blockbuster like this, with one of today's biggest stars (if not biggest).
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10:31PM on 06/05/2014
Fuck the downvotes! You tell em Soloist!!!
Fuck the downvotes! You tell em Soloist!!!
3:21PM on 06/05/2014
Although Edge of Tomorrow is good, it's not mind-blowing.
Although Edge of Tomorrow is good, it's not mind-blowing.
3:12PM on 06/05/2014
I dunno, I mean, those are exactly the predictions I would have made (and I'm far from any kind of genius analyst or something). Is that really that exciting?
However, I have to agree that Edge of Tomorrow looks awesome and while I don't expect it to make an impressive amount of money, I really want to be wrong!
I dunno, I mean, those are exactly the predictions I would have made (and I'm far from any kind of genius analyst or something). Is that really that exciting?
However, I have to agree that Edge of Tomorrow looks awesome and while I don't expect it to make an impressive amount of money, I really want to be wrong!
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3:15PM on 06/05/2014

Edge of Tomorrow is a lot of fun.

Saw it on Imax 3D yesterday and loved it. Great action, fun story, strong characters that you care about and a lot of dark humour.
If you hate Tom Cruise then you get to see him die loads and loads.
Hearing a lot of predictions that this will flop in the US. Well if it does a lot of people have robbed themselves of a good time at the cinema. Especially as it isn't a reboot, superhero or sequel.
Don't mug yourself off, go and see it.
Saw it on Imax 3D yesterday and loved it. Great action, fun story, strong characters that you care about and a lot of dark humour.
If you hate Tom Cruise then you get to see him die loads and loads.
Hearing a lot of predictions that this will flop in the US. Well if it does a lot of people have robbed themselves of a good time at the cinema. Especially as it isn't a reboot, superhero or sequel.
Don't mug yourself off, go and see it.
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3:20PM on 06/05/2014
I will agree with Hercules. The new trailer didn't do anything for me. And it's a shame cause the Rock could've been a great Hercules if they didn't have rattner behind the camera.

As for edge of tomorrow, I get a feeling it's gonna be a sleeper hit. Doug Liman did have hits in past summers with the Bourne identity and mr and mrs. Smith.
I will agree with Hercules. The new trailer didn't do anything for me. And it's a shame cause the Rock could've been a great Hercules if they didn't have rattner behind the camera.

As for edge of tomorrow, I get a feeling it's gonna be a sleeper hit. Doug Liman did have hits in past summers with the Bourne identity and mr and mrs. Smith.
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3:23PM on 06/05/2014
Sadly it's usually the sheep who decide what makes the most money, but there are always the rare exceptions. My guess would be that if you're not interested Edge of Tomorrow it's because of Tom Cruise. Fair enough. I've just never heard one GOOD reason why this movie doesn't look anything, but awesome.
Sadly it's usually the sheep who decide what makes the most money, but there are always the rare exceptions. My guess would be that if you're not interested Edge of Tomorrow it's because of Tom Cruise. Fair enough. I've just never heard one GOOD reason why this movie doesn't look anything, but awesome.
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3:31PM on 06/05/2014

Wow, I actually agree with them all...

I don't think Edge of Tomorrow will do that well. It will make money, but Tom Cruises last few movies were duds.

Also, of course Expendables 3 and Hercules are going to bomb. E3 is going to be a horrible PG-13 mess, missing out on the reason why the first movie did so well. After E2 came out nobody cared anymore and it killed any interest people had in the series. Now if it came out as a hard R like the first one, it would make double what it will make as PG-13.

Hercules just looks bad. I
I don't think Edge of Tomorrow will do that well. It will make money, but Tom Cruises last few movies were duds.

Also, of course Expendables 3 and Hercules are going to bomb. E3 is going to be a horrible PG-13 mess, missing out on the reason why the first movie did so well. After E2 came out nobody cared anymore and it killed any interest people had in the series. Now if it came out as a hard R like the first one, it would make double what it will make as PG-13.

Hercules just looks bad. I mean really bad. If the first Hercules movie that came out this year is any indication of hype for Hercules, than this will be The Rocks worst grossing movie ever.
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+3
3:48PM on 06/05/2014

OK

Captain Obvious....
Captain Obvious....
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3:53PM on 06/05/2014
I loved Edge of Tomorrow and it deserves to be a hit but it will probably be in the low end of the middle of receipts at the end of the summer. I read that Totalfilm has predicted around 1 billion worldwide for Guardians but I still think it will come in around 420-450 worldwide. I think the trailers are too far out there to garner interest with the general moviegoing public, but I do hope I'm wrong.
I loved Edge of Tomorrow and it deserves to be a hit but it will probably be in the low end of the middle of receipts at the end of the summer. I read that Totalfilm has predicted around 1 billion worldwide for Guardians but I still think it will come in around 420-450 worldwide. I think the trailers are too far out there to garner interest with the general moviegoing public, but I do hope I'm wrong.
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3:56PM on 06/05/2014

You need software to predict this shit?

Completely agree that Edge of Tomorrow won't be a huge success, but the Cruise supporters and people generally interested will check it out. But it's no surprise that THE EXPENDABLES 3 and HERCULES will flop. Expendables 2 was terrible and the non rated R they're going for, really hurts the movie they're trying to make. Hercules really looks ridiculous... if it was more a 300 adapted film, it may lure more people in. Its a shame because it looks like The Rock really put forth his best effort.
Completely agree that Edge of Tomorrow won't be a huge success, but the Cruise supporters and people generally interested will check it out. But it's no surprise that THE EXPENDABLES 3 and HERCULES will flop. Expendables 2 was terrible and the non rated R they're going for, really hurts the movie they're trying to make. Hercules really looks ridiculous... if it was more a 300 adapted film, it may lure more people in. Its a shame because it looks like The Rock really put forth his best effort.
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+3
6:09PM on 06/05/2014

Hercules and Expendables 3 will flop?! Oh my God! You don't say?!

I could have told you that and I'm just some Schmoe. Not an algorithm. Plus it's real easy to predict "100% accuracy" after 3 of the nine films tested included ENDER'S GAME, DELIVERY MAN, and 47 RONIN. What a crock.
I could have told you that and I'm just some Schmoe. Not an algorithm. Plus it's real easy to predict "100% accuracy" after 3 of the nine films tested included ENDER'S GAME, DELIVERY MAN, and 47 RONIN. What a crock.
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12:23AM on 06/06/2014
Edge of Tomorrow is pretty darn impressive. Sure, it won't do as well as the major franchise movies, but I think enough people will go see it and word of mouth is very positive so far.
Edge of Tomorrow is pretty darn impressive. Sure, it won't do as well as the major franchise movies, but I think enough people will go see it and word of mouth is very positive so far.
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2:33AM on 06/06/2014
Edge of Tomorrow will have good word of mouth. Wasn't interested in seeing it at first but got suckered in courtesy of all the glowing reviews.
Edge of Tomorrow will have good word of mouth. Wasn't interested in seeing it at first but got suckered in courtesy of all the glowing reviews.
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11:30AM on 06/06/2014

I call B.S.

In the eyes of ADOBE what is considered a hit or a flop?....Their claim of being 100% accurate is so subjective its ridiculous. Does Edge of Tomorrow have to make $100 Million domestic to be considered a hit? Or is it a flop if it only makes $80 million? Give me a break.
In the eyes of ADOBE what is considered a hit or a flop?....Their claim of being 100% accurate is so subjective its ridiculous. Does Edge of Tomorrow have to make $100 Million domestic to be considered a hit? Or is it a flop if it only makes $80 million? Give me a break.
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7:42AM on 06/07/2014
Like it says in the article...

"measures social media and trailer views for films in the weeks leading up to release to determine whether it will exceed the production budget during it's domestic box office run."

A domestic flop is generally something that doesn't make back it budget.
Like it says in the article...

"measures social media and trailer views for films in the weeks leading up to release to determine whether it will exceed the production budget during it's domestic box office run."

A domestic flop is generally something that doesn't make back it budget.
+0
4:15PM on 06/06/2014

Lame....

Claiming that HTTYD2 and Transformers will be hits? Oh my gosh....that's SOOOOOOO cutting edge! Predicting that the only tear-jerker based on a wildly successful book will be a "hit" (although I'm guessing they're not predicting it on a scale of the first two) is just crazy-talk!

I haven't seen them predict anything that all of us didn't already know. If they want to impress me, then pick box office numbers so we can get a real idea of how accurate they are.
Claiming that HTTYD2 and Transformers will be hits? Oh my gosh....that's SOOOOOOO cutting edge! Predicting that the only tear-jerker based on a wildly successful book will be a "hit" (although I'm guessing they're not predicting it on a scale of the first two) is just crazy-talk!

I haven't seen them predict anything that all of us didn't already know. If they want to impress me, then pick box office numbers so we can get a real idea of how accurate they are.
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+0
6:01PM on 06/06/2014
I'm gonna be depressed as fuck if 'The Fault in Our Stars' makes bank, and 'Expendables 3' flops. luckily I don't believe Adobe at all.
I'm gonna be depressed as fuck if 'The Fault in Our Stars' makes bank, and 'Expendables 3' flops. luckily I don't believe Adobe at all.
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7:38AM on 06/07/2014
"Depressed as fuck" if a small budget, character driven movie succeeds, while a overblown 3rd entry of a franchise that has already overstayed it's welcome fails?

Huh...
"Depressed as fuck" if a small budget, character driven movie succeeds, while a overblown 3rd entry of a franchise that has already overstayed it's welcome fails?

Huh...
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