This year’s Thanksgiving box office is shaping up to be a near-repeat of last year’s holiday surge dominated by Moana 2 and Wicked. While Zootopia 2 isn’t expected to soar quite as high as Moana 2 did, it’s still headed for a massive $140 million five-day gross (as per Deadline). Over the standard three-day weekend, projections sit at $88–90 million, comfortably ahead of the original film’s $75 million debut. However, that’s still significantly below Moana 2’s gigantic $225 million opening last year.
One contributing factor is the overall softness of the 2025 box office. Even Wicked: For Good is trailing the first installment, currently pacing for a $91 million five-day weekend, compared to the original’s $118 million.
Even so, exhibitors have reason to celebrate. The industry has been desperate for hits since September’s one-two punch of The Conjuring: Last Rites and Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle. Unfortunately, most new releases aren’t getting the typical Thanksgiving bump. Now You See Me: Now You Don’t is headed for a modest $8.5 million three-day weekend, while Predator: Badlands should land around $5.4 million.
The bright spot is A24’s excellent rom-com Eternity, which is over-performing with a potential fifth-place finish at $5.4 million despite playing on only about 1,300 screens. If audiences show up—and they should—they’ll discover a real gem (check out our review and interviews).
Focus Features’ awards contender Hamnet is also thriving in limited release, headed for roughly $1.4 million over the five-day holiday with a strong $11K+ per-screen average.
Here are our Thanksgiving weekend box-office predictions:
- Zootopia 2: $140 million
- Wicked: For Good: $90 million
- Now You See Me: Now You Don’t: $8.5 million
- Predator: Badlands: $5.5 million
- Eternity: $5.4 million
What are you seeing over the holiday? Let us know in the comments!
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