It’s the Fourth of July weekend, and as usual, plenty of box office fireworks are expected. However, it can’t be denied that this is a quieter than usual holiday weekend. The weekend’s big new release, Minions and Monsters, is expected to do very well, but it might not quite post the massive numbers one usually expects from a holiday frame.
The latest from Illumination is off to a solid start. Deadline reports that the animated sequel made $13.75 million on Wednesday, without the luxury of a preview night. However, that is only a fraction of what the last movie in the franchise, Despicable Me 4, brought in on its opening day ($27.2 million).
With those early metrics, Minions and Monsters is projected to bring in somewhere in the neighborhood of $65 million over the three-day weekend. If you add the extra two days of the holiday stretch, its five-day domestic box office total should sit comfortably in the $85 million range.
Fortunately for Universal, this franchise is incredibly durable—no entry has ever grossed less than $250 million domestically. It’s also worth noting that Minions and Monsters is the best-reviewed entry to date. Many reviewers, including our own critic Mike Conway, are praising the film’s unique silent-era Hollywood setting and its clever nods to classic comedians like Buster Keaton, Charlie Chaplin, and the Keystone Kops.
So, what will take the second-place spot? The smart money is on Disney and Pixar’s Toy Story 5. The animated heavyweight will likely lose another 40% to 50% of its audience in its third frame, aiming for a $35 million weekend—an incredibly resilient hold for week three.
The big wild card on everyone’s mind is how Angel Studios will perform with Young Washington. This historical epic is one of the studio’s most ambitious projects to date, chronicling George Washington’s time as a young soldier well before the Revolutionary War. The film boasts an impressive ensemble cast including William Franklyn-Miller, Kelsey Grammer, Andy Serkis, Mary-Louise Parker, and Ben Kingsley.
Notably, in recent months, Angel Studios has taken great pains to establish itself as a straight-down-the-middle company uninterested in taking political sides. While they started primarily in the faith-based space, they’ve expanded their demographic reach. Young Washington, while deeply patriotic, isn’t designed to be right- or left-leaning. Instead, it feels like a deliberate attempt to resurrect the sweeping, early-2000s historical biopics like The Patriot.
Driven by Angel’s signature grassroots marketing, many tracking analysts believe the film will comfortably grab third place. A $15 million holiday opening is highly achievable, especially with the release perfectly coinciding with the United States Semiquincentennial celebrations. While it might lack the mainstream prestige required to become a massive blockbuster, it is poised to do very healthy business.
Fourth place will likely go to DC’s Supergirl, which appears to be in a free fall. The superhero blockbuster is pacing toward a soft $12 million weekend. While some online circles blame review bombing for the steep drop, the film’s B-minus CinemaScore is a clearer indicator of its struggles—movies with that grade historically suffer heavy second-weekend declines.
Rounding out the top five is the thriller Obsession, which is projected to pull in around $7 million. However, there is a catch: the movie just debuted on PVOD (Premium Video on Demand). One has to question the theatrical wisdom of releasing a film on digital platforms while it is still drawing large crowds to theater seats. It will be fascinating to watch how home availability impacts its remaining box office legs.
What are you planning to see at the movies this holiday weekend? Let us know your picks in the comments below!