As expected, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is on track for the biggest opening of the year. According to Deadline, the film seems likely to hit $129 million over the weekend and $188.5 million for the five-day holiday. While those are great numbers, as we predicted earlier this week, it’s not going to crack the $200 million mark, with it coming in just shy of the $204 million the last Super Mario movie made over the Easter holiday in 2023.
Even still, that’s not a very drastic falloff from the first movie, meaning that the Super Mario franchise is still pretty explosive at the box office. The first Super Mario Bros. movie is the highest-grossing Illumination release of all time, making $574 million domestically and $1.3 billion worldwide. Likely, the second film will become the second-highest-grossing Illumination movie, with the current runner-up being Minions: The Rise of Gru with $370 million. With its current gross, I expect The Super Mario Galaxy Movie to top out around $400 million domestically. It scored an A-minus on CinemaScore compared to the A the last film received, showing audiences maybe aren’t liking it quite as much, which is why I think the decline will be somewhat steep on this one.
The weekend’s other big new release, The Drama, is looking at about $14 million over the holiday weekend. Considering the huge twist, the CinemaScore rating of B isn’t half bad. The score suggests some may hate the film, but others (including us) are appreciating it. Project Hail Mary, as expected, is looking at a great $32.6 million, with it likely to be close to $220 million by the end of the weekend. Another big surprise is the Angel Studios release A Great Awakening, a Benjamin Franklin biopic which, despite very little in the way of advertising and buzz, is opening in sixth place with a surprising $2.1 million.
What are you seeing this weekend? Let us know in the comments.