When I wrote my box office predictions earlier this week, I noted that analysts everywhere were calling for Demon Slayer – Infinity Castle to notch a historic debut. While I agreed it would almost certainly claim the record for the biggest anime opening of all time, I thought some of the more bullish forecasts — suggesting a debut north of $60 million — were a stretch. Yet, according to early reports from Deadline, that may actually be within reach. Based on Friday’s business, the current forecast has the film opening anywhere between $55–60 million. Either way, it’s a landmark moment for anime at the domestic box office, with the previous record-holder, Pokémon: The Movie, opening to $31 million way back in 1999. That said, anime titles are notoriously front-loaded, so expect at least a 60% drop next weekend. Still, those are incredible numbers, and its a much needed win for Sony, who are having a terrible year at the box office, with Karate Kid: Legends, Caught Stealing, and I Know What You Did Last Summer costly flops.
Meanwhile, last weekend’s champ, The Conjuring: Last Rites, is tumbling a steep 65% to $29.7 million in its sophomore frame. Given its huge debut, Warner Bros. won’t be shedding any tears — the film has already surpassed the lifetime domestic grosses of every prior entry in the franchise.
Elsewhere, Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale is putting up a strong performance, with estimates around $19 million — higher than the opening of its predecessor, A New Era. Given the significantly older-skewing audience, that’s an impressive showing, and it could even push past $20 million by the end of the weekend. While billed as the final Downton Abbey film, these movies remain reliable earners, so don’t be surprised if the franchise continues in some form — perhaps even with a Lady Mary–focused spinoff.
Lionsgate’s Stephen King adaptation The Long Walk is also showing solid traction, with an $11–13 million debut projected. That’s a healthy number for a film featuring such a young cast and a grim premise, and it should ultimately turn a tidy profit for the studio.
No early word yet on how Spinal Tap II: The End Continues is faring, but we’ll have a full update tomorrow.
