One of the biggest question marks going into this weekend’s box office was whether or not audiences would show up for Johnny Depp’s first mainstream studio role in eight years — Ebenezer. According to Deadline’s early box office estimates, it’s looking at about $20 million this weekend — which is exactly what we predicted earlier this week. That’s not far off from what previous, non-franchise Depp movies grossed over a decade ago, with Black Mass opening to $22.6 million, while Public Enemies earned just over $25 million in 2009.
While that’s not a huge number, it’s quite reasonable for a movie that cost about $38 million — and about another $50 million to market. It will be up to the overseas grosses to determine whether Ebenezer turns out to be profitable, but if it opens to, say, $40 million or so worldwide, it should at least break even. It’s actually performing somewhat similarly to another star-driven Paramount movie, Heart of the Beast, starring Brad Pitt. That opened with $20 million and ended up grossing $67 million domestically, plus another $121 million overseas, for a final box office total in the $189 million region. That movie was propped up by excellent word of mouth, earning a great A CinemaScore rating. Audiences seem to be liking Ebenezer almost as much, with it scoring an A-minus rating. With the Thanksgiving holiday coming up, Paramount is no doubt hoping this will have legs.
It’s performing significantly better than any other new release. Sony’s action flick Ghost Soldier, which cost a thrifty $18 million and stars Jim Caviezel, will only make about $4.9 million this weekend. It opened on Veterans Day, which brings its total gross to about $8 million — a modest performer. Still, with cost relative to gross factored in, it’s doing better than Amazon/MGM’s How to Rob a Bank. This David Leitch-directed caper is looking like a major bomb, with a projected weekend in the $4.7 million region. The CinemaScore is a middling B-minus.
Godzilla Minus Zero, which set records last weekend, is looking at a huge fall in the 70% range to about $8 million or so. It’s performing like a front-loaded anime, although with it closing in on a $50 million gross, this will easily outgross Godzilla Minus One, which wrapped up its stateside run with $57 million. The Bollywood film Ramayana is also still making money, with a projected weekend of about $5 million and a solid domestic gross in the $23 million region. Overseas, the film is a blockbuster, with its worldwide total well above $117 million so far.
We’ll be back tomorrow with a full box office report.