After Karate Kid: Legends didn’t quite set the box office on fire last weekend, it looks like the hit-hungry Lionsgate might actually be able to nab the top spot from Disney’s Lilo & Stitch with their John Wick spinoff, Ballerina. While initially mired by bad buzz, resulting in rumors of drastic reshoots, the movie has actually mustered relatively good word-of-mouth thanks to early screenings, showing there’s faith in this Ana de Armas-led action flick. We enjoyed the movie (read our review), and think it should be able to open with a solid $30 million. While it won’t be the blockbuster the latter John Wick movies have been, it should be Lionsgate’s biggest success in a while, meaning full steam ahead on the follow-ups.
Lilo & Stitch shouldn’t be far behind with about $25 million in its third frame (although it could pull an upset and take the top spot). Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning looks like it will likely land in third place with about $15 million, which puts its chances of cracking the $200 million mark in question.
As for fourth place, Karate Kid: Legends should be able to crane kick its way to a fourth place finish with about $8 million, while Final Destination: Bloodlines is my pick for fifth place with $5 million. That said, it’s entirely possible that A24’s indie flick, Bring Her Back, could manage to leap frog over that horror hit – but it all depends on word of mouth (the movie did score a terrific B+ CinemaScore last weekend).
All things said, this should be a relatively quiet weekend before the live action remake of How to Train Your Dragon comes in, and hopefully delivers at least a $50-60 million opening. Will it be the next family hit? We’ll have to wait and see, but for now here are my predictions:
- From the World of John Wick: Ballerina – $30 million
- Lilo & Stitch – $25 million
- Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning – $15 million
- Karate Kid: Legends – $8 million
- Final Destination: Bloodlines – $5 million
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