It’s a box office bloodbath for the studios this weekend, with neither Disney’s Moana nor Warner Bros.’ Evil Dead Burn opening within expectations. The outlook is more dire for Moana, with the film carrying a massive budget estimated to be anywhere between $200 million and $250 million. It’s looking at an opening weekend in the $42 million range, which is precisely where Disney’s flop Snow White landed when it opened last year. That film went on to gross just over $200 million worldwide and reportedly lost the studio more than $100 million. The good news for Disney is that Dwayne Johnson has major box office clout internationally, so overseas grosses could make up for some of the domestic shortfall. The film’s CinemaScore is an A-, which is only fair for a family movie.
The big surprise is how poorly Evil Dead Burn is faring. We had it pegged at $23 million in our box office forecast, but Deadline is reporting that it’s only going to open with about $15 million, which is almost $10 million less than the $24 million Evil Dead Rise opened with. Perhaps Warner Bros. needs to rethink its summer release strategy for New Line-branded genre titles, with May’s Mortal Kombat 2 also underperforming.
Sandwiched between those movies are Minions & Monsters andToy Story 5, with $21 million and $19 million, respectively, while Minions & Monsters is falling about 43% week over week, which is an okay result. Sadly, A24’s expansion of Olivia Wilde’s The Invite isn’t performing well either, with the film only on track for a $4.3 million weekend despite excellent reviews. It’s coming in just behind Angel Studios’Young Washington, which is proving to be front-loaded, dropping 64% in its second weekend with an estimated $7 million gross. While it opened on par with Angel Studios’ Sound of Freedom, it doesn’t have that film’s staying power, which actually saw its grosses increase by about 39% in its second weekend.
And what about Supergirl? Its horrific box office run continues, with the film only on track for a $3.8 million weekend. By the end of the weekend, its domestic gross will sit at about $66 million—not a good result at all for James Gunn’s new DCU.
We’ll be back tomorrow with a full box office roundup, but let us know what you’re seeing this weekend in the comments!
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