Super Bowl weekend is notoriously quiet as far as new releases go, but usually at least one studio “tries” with a fairly notable release. After all, some movies have unexpectedly broken through. I remember vividly when Taken, a movie that actually sat on the shelf for a full year and had already leaked online (in addition to getting a European release), was an unexpected smash, making Liam Neeson an unlikely (at the time) action star. Yet, no one seems to want to give a Super Bowl release a try this weekend, with the only wide releases being Lionsgate’s The Strangers: Chapter 3, which winds up Renny Harlin’s trilogy, and the rom-com Solo Mio.
The Strangers: Chapter 3 has the handicap of following the franchise’s poorly received second installment, which opened with only $5.8 million, a significant comedown from the $11.8 million the first one opened with. No reviews are out for the third film yet, with it not screening for critics (our horror guy, Tyler, will be reviewing it tomorrow) — which isn’t a good sign. I’m expecting a $4 million opening at most, which should be good enough to squeeze it into the top 10.
For me, the biggest question marks of the weekend are two niche plays. One is Angel Studios’ Solo Mio, which our critic Steve Seigh enjoyed. It’s one of Angel’s more mainstream, non-faith-based films, but their track record has been mixed with films of this ilk (their religious stuff tends to do better). I’m thinking a $3.5 million opening. Another question is whether Amazon’s Melania completely loses steam in week two after its surprising $7 million opening. It’s tempting to say that movie was front-loaded, but it’s performing like a faith-based movie, and often those show legs at the box office.
Whatever the case may be, the top two movies will be identical to last week, with Send Help looking at a solid $10 million weekend thanks to solid reviews and good word-of-mouth (a B+ is good for a thriller). Markiplier’s Iron Lung also seems likely to hold on to second place with about $7 million, which would be a steep decline, as it’s assumed most of his die-hard fans went to see it opening weekend.
Here are our predictions:
- Send Help: $10 million
- Iron Lung: $7 million
- The Strangers: Chapter 3: $4 million
- Solo Mio: $3.5 million
- Melania: $3 million
What do you think will top the box office this weekend? Let us know in the comments.
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