Box Office Update: The Mandalorian and Grogu hits $100 million for the 4-day holiday

Monday update: In the end, The Mandalorian and Grogu managed to hit the $100 million mark over the four-day Memorial Day holiday – but only just. According to Comscore, the movie hit $100 million on the nose, giving Disney some bragging rights. Then again, Solo: A Star Wars Story made $103 million eight years ago, so is this actually all that positive a sign for the franchise? Whatever way you slice it, it’s the lowest opening for a Star Wars movie in the contentious Disney era. Meanwhile, Obsession hit $30.3 million, with its cume now over $60 million.

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Just as we predicted earlier this week, the early numbers for The Mandalorian and Grogu (read our review here) are in, and they are underwhelming. It made an estimated $81.9 million this weekend and is likely to hit just under $100 million for the four-day holiday. Overseas, it made an additional $63 million. Yet no one seems too sure whether this one is a hit. By comparison, Solo: A Star Wars Story made a shade more at $84.4 million back in 2018, although it cost a huge $300 million. By contrast, The Mandalorian and Grogu was made for a lot less, with estimates pegging it somewhere in the $165 million range. Solo topped out at under $400 million worldwide. If Mandalorian reaches that number, it will likely break even, but it’s not the hit Disney likely hoped for, making it an inauspicious relaunch for the franchise on the big screen.

But, in a lot of ways, the big story this weekend has nothing to do with a galaxy far, far away. Rather, it has to do with last weekend’s horror sleeper, Obsession. After a solid opening in the high teens, Obsession (read our review here)—which scored an A-minus CinemaScore (rare for horror)—actually spiked 30% for a $22.4 million weekend and a $52.7 million domestic haul, with it well on its way to $100 million. Expect Curry Barker to join Zach Cregger on the new horror A-list, with Obsession likely becoming one of the most profitable cost-to-gross movies ever, seeing as it had a $750k budget (although Focus paid $15 million to acquire it—which now seems like a smart deal).

Another movie that’s showing incredible legs is Lionsgate’s Michael, which fell only 23% this weekend to $20 million, with a massive $314.2 million domestic gross as it closes in on $800 million worldwide. A billion-dollar gross isn’t out of the question for this one, with this Michael Jackson biopic sure to end its run as the highest-grossing music biopic of all time.

Disney/20th Century Studios’ The Devil Wears Prada 2 also keeps plugging away, making $12.5 million for a $196.1 million domestic gross. Worldwide, it stands at a pretty damn huge $600 million. This one is printing money at the box office, and as such, I’d be stunned if we didn’t get another sequel before long—there’s no way it takes another twenty years (although perhaps scarcity played a part in its sustained success).

Amazon/ MGM’s The Sheep Detectives also had a good weekend. Despite losing over 300 screens, it fell only 6% to make $8.9 million, for a $43 million domestic total. Family audiences are turning this one into a solid sleeper.

However, while the box office was strong this Memorial Day weekend, Paramount had a dud with Passenger, which only mustered $8.7 million. In all fairness, Passenger was ill-timed, as it had to compete with Obsession, which is going to suck up all the air as far as horror movies go over the next few weeks. It’s dominating the cultural conversation, so Passenger, with its middling B-minus CinemaScore rating, never had a chance.

WB/New Line’s Mortal Kombat 2 has also fallen off faster than expected, grossing $6.1 million for a $72 million domestic total. While not exactly a summer blockbuster, it still will turn a nice profit, paving the way for a third film.

One movie that whiffed this weekend is Boots Riley’s I Love Boosters, which only grossed $3.7 million. To be a hit, a movie like this really needs to become part of the cultural conversation, but it seemed to have little impact at the box office, despite its high-profile SXSW debut.

Finally, The Super Mario Bros. Galaxy Movie and Project Hail Mary started to wrap up their theatrical runs, adding $3.1 million and $2.7 million to their $423 million and $329 million totals.

Next weekend sees the release of A24’s Backrooms, which many think will be a sizable hit, but will Obsession leave any room for it to make an impact? Let us know in the comments