One of the box office battles many expected to be juicy this summer is looking like it will end with a whimper rather than a bang. Earlier this year, it was widely expected that DC’s Supergirl would give Toy Story 5 a serious run for its money in its second week of release, but bad buzz—including poor reviews (read ours here)—and perhaps a little superhero fatigue suggest the film is headed for an underwhelming opening. While some doomsayers think it could debut as low as $30 million, there’s likely enough fan interest to push Supergirl to at least $40 million, with a $45 million opening looking reasonable. I saw it at a fan screening earlier this week, and it was packed with cosplayers, so there is at least some enthusiasm.
The issue for Supergirl is that it will likely appeal primarily to hardcore DC fans, while general audiences may give it a pass because it feels too familiar. While I wouldn’t say superhero movies are dead, the genre is certainly in a lull, with none of Marvel’s recent films (at least since Deadpool vs. Wolverine) capturing the zeitgeist the way they once did. WB/DC’s Superman performed well, but it still sold significantly fewer tickets than Zack Snyder’s Man of Steel, which was considered a disappointment back in 2013. If Superman himself couldn’t break out in a massive way, what hope does Supergirl have?
As such, expect Toy Story 5 to easily top the box office with around $80 million thanks to its huge opening and excellent A CinemaScore. It’s performing so well that many think it will take a sizeable bite out of the upcoming Minions & Monsters, as well as Disney’s own Moana.
But what about Jackass?
The latest—and likely last—film in the franchise, Jackass: Best and Last, is hitting theaters as a solid piece of counterprogramming. It’s unlikely to reach the heights of previous installments, with it looking at about a $15 million opening. The franchise has been on a downward trajectory at the box office since peaking with Jackass 3D in 2010, which opened to $50 million, while Jackass Forever debuted to just $23.15 million. Even so, these movies are inexpensive to produce, so it should still turn a healthy profit for Paramount.
Obsession should easily slide into fourth place with about $10 million as it continues its march toward a potential $280–300 million domestic finish. Not bad for a movie that cost just $750,000 to make! A24’s Backrooms should round out the top five with roughly $5 million.
What are you seeing this weekend? Let us know in the comments!