We live in an era where very few movie stars can guarantee a movie’s opening, but for the most part, Tom Cruise is an exception. Very few of his movies haven’t at least posted respectable grosses, and he’s only appeared in a handful of outright bombs. However, his latest, Digger, is a big ask for his usual audience. An audacious, polarizing film that’s being torpedoed by critics (we were more mixed), it almost seems to antagonize its audience and appears all but certain to crash and burn at the box office despite its $120 million-plus budget.
As such, we think it’s unlikely to make more than $11 million this weekend, which would make it Cruise’s poorest opening since Lions for Lambs back in 2007. It actually boots The Odyssey from IMAX 70mm screens this weekend (as Digger was shot on 65mm VistaVision), but expect fans to cry foul, especially with The Odyssey still selling out. Will Digger only last a week in IMAX? I wouldn’t be surprised.
The movie that seems certain to open at number one is the Colleen Hoover adaptation Verity, which packs a star-powered cast including Anne Hathaway, Dakota Johnson and Josh Hartnett. However, poor reviews will likely keep it from becoming the phenomenon some expected a few months ago, with it likely to have an opening more in line with Practical Magic 2: around $25 million.
It’s possible that both Resident Evil and Avengers: Endgame Encore could beat Digger, although I’m thinking Encore will lose much of its audience now that the extra footage has been thoroughly dissected by fans. Resident Evil’s good word of mouth should allow it to hit about $14 million, while Heart of the Beast will probably beat Endgame with $10 million. Beware Boiúna should open just outside the top five with around $7 million, with it likely to be beaten by Primetime in week two with $8 million.
Here are our predictions:
What are you seeing this weekend? Let us know in the comments.