Weekend Box Office Predictions: The Invitation to lead a slow weekend

This is one of those weekends that is fairly hard to predict. It features three new releases with little fanfare and a number one movie from last week with a dedicated fanbase that already saw it!

When it comes to new releases, Sony Pictures PG13 horror film The Invitation stands the best chance at taking the top spot. I mention the rating because I actually think that hurts its box office potential. The trailers for this one looked entertaining, reminding me a bit of the R rated Ready or Not from 2019. Whereas that film used its R rating to bloody perfection in crafting an extremely unique tale of murder and mayhem, The Invitation’s PG13 has softened my expectations for the film. I don’t see this one making it to double digits in its opening and by doing so, breaking a 65 week run of at least one film earning over $10 Million. 

Staying in second place will be the Idris Elba starring Beast. The film has had solid numbers throughout the week, signifying decent word of mouth and should end the weekend with a moderate drop off and a $6-7 Million take.

Third and fourth place will be the summer holdovers Bullet Train and Top Gun: Maverick with the latter currently available on VOD. However, my local theater has begun putting Top Gun: Maverick back in their PLF (Premium Large Format) theaters as a way to entice fans to see the film the way it was meant to be seen. I think the two films should end up between $5-6 Million for the weekend

Fifth place should be George Miller’s Three Thousand Years of Longing. Described as “Aladdin for Adults” the film will struggle to find an audience outside of the arthouse driven crowd that saw Edgar Wright’s Last Night in Soho open to less than $5 Million nearly a year ago. Early reviews for Longing call it an ambitious visual treat with a story that doesn’t quite match. This one will struggle to hit the $5 Million mark for the weekend. 

Last week’s number one movie, Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero will see a significant drop off in its second weekend. The previous film in the series Dragon Ball Super: Broly had a nearly 70% drop off in its second weekend and I expect roughly the same for this one.

The weeks other big new release is Bleecker Street’s Breaking starring John Boyega and the late great Michael K. Williams in one of his final roles. Some critics have compared the film to Dog Day Afternoon while others have said the film lacks focus. Opening on just 900 screens, Breaking has the potential to be a strong word of mouth hit, but I expect it to open soft with around $2 Million in receipts. 

The last “new” film opening this weekend is the re-release of Rogue One: A Star Wars Story. The Imax only release will feature exclusive footage from the new Disney+ series Andor, but I don’t think that will be enough to get butts in seats. I expect this one to come in under $1 Million.

Will you be venturing out to the theaters this weekend or will the Amazon Prime debut of Sylvester Stallone’s aging super hero film Samaritan be all the entertainment you need? Let us know in the comments and don’t forget to check back on Sunday when we give a full rundown of the weekends box office numbers.

TOP FIVE BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS:

1. The Invitation– $9 Million
2. Beast– $6.5 Million
3. Bullet Train– $5.5 Million
4. Top Gun: Maverick– $5 Million
5. Three Thousand Years of Longing– $4.5 Million