The summer of 2026 continues to deliver one surprise after another at the box office, with several movies that once looked like guaranteed hits struggling to connect with audiences. Amazon/MGM’s expensive Masters of the Universe has underperformed, Universal’s Minions & Monsters is fading quickly, and even Disney hasn’t escaped the trend. The Mandalorian & Grogu has become the lowest-grossing Star Wars movie ever, and now the studio appears to be facing another disappointment with its live-action remake of Moana.
Despite an estimated $250 million budget and the star power of Dwayne Johnson, Moana is tracking for an opening weekend of roughly $45 million. That would be a disappointing debut for a film based on one of Disney’s biggest modern animated franchises, especially considering that Moana 2 became the third highest-grossing movie of 2024.
Audience enthusiasm for Disney’s live-action remakes also appears to be fading. Snow White struggled earlier this year, and Moana has received largely negative reviews, with many critics pointing to its flat visuals, uneven CGI, and Johnson’s unconvincing muscle suit and wig. While Disney opted to play it safe with an almost scene-for-scene remake of the original, that approach doesn’t seem to have generated much excitement.
The brightest spot at the box office this weekend should be the much darker Evil Dead Burn. While recent horror hopefuls such as Neon’s Leviticus struggled following the blockbuster success of Obsession and Backrooms, enough time has passed for audiences to be ready for another major horror release. Strong reviews and excellent word of mouth should help Evil Dead Burn debut with about $25 million, putting it in line with Evil Dead Rise. That’s an encouraging result, especially with another Evil Dead movie already in development.
Meanwhile, Minions & Monsters is expected to drop about 50% in its second weekend, earning roughly $18 million as its disappointing theatrical run continues. Toy Story 5 should follow closely with around $15 million.
The biggest wild card remains Angel Studios’ Young Washington. Thanks to its excellent CinemaScore and encouraging word of mouth, the historical drama could post another strong weekend, with $12 million looking well within reach. However, A24’s acclaimed The Invite, which expands nationwide this weekend after generating terrific buzz, could surprise and cut into its audience.
Our weekend box office predictions:
- Moana: $45 million
- Evil Dead Burn: $25 million
- Minions & Monsters: $18 million
- Toy Story 5: $15 million
- Young Washington: $12 million
Do you think Moana will outperform expectations, or is Disney’s live-action remake strategy finally running out of steam? Let us know in the comments.
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