Fresh off Spider-Man: Brand New Day‘s record-breaking opening weekend, with it outgrossing Avengers: Endgame‘s first frame, all eyes are on the movie’s second weekend. Avengers: Endgame fell about 59% in week two to $147.3 million. When a movie opens as big as Brand New Day did, it’s looking at a significant second-weekend drop-off, as numbers like those ($360 million) are hard to sustain in any meaningful way. If it performs similarly to Endgame, which is likely, it’s looking at a $150 million weekend. That will put it within spitting distance of Toy Story 5‘s $159 million opening, which, until Spider-Man, was the biggest opening of the year. There’s still a chance Brand New Day could rally to $160 million, but either way, it will have grossed more than $600 million domestically by the end of the weekend, which are mind-blowing numbers.
Once again, Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey won’t have any trouble taking second place, with it looking at a $30 million weekend. It’s losing some IMAX screens to Brand New Day, although its 70mm IMAX screens will stay dedicated to The Odyssey until mid-September, as showtimes are still selling out around the clock.
The big question mark this weekend is One Night Only. A rom-com from Will Gluck, Universal hopes it will mimic the performance of the director’s last rom-com, Anyone But You. That movie started out slowly, making only $6 million its opening weekend, but it legged out to an $83 million domestic finish. One Night Only should open marginally better, with it looking at a $7 million weekend, but whether or not it has legs comes down to the untested appeal of its two stars, Monica Barbaro and Callum Turner. The concept, where sex between single people is only legal one night a year, might be a bit too “out there” for audiences to wrap their heads around, but we’ll see.
As in previous weekends, Toy Story 5 and Minions & Monsters will likely be pretty close in fourth and fifth place, with about $4 million apiece. Eli Roth’s Ice Cream Man, which is being released independently, should open just outside the top five with $3 million.
Here are our predictions:
- Spider-Man: Brand New Day: $150 million
- The Odyssey: $30 million
- One Night Only: $7 million
- Toy Story 5: $4 million
- Minions & Monsters: $3.5 million
What are you seeing this weekend? Let us know in the comments!
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