A couple of days ago, I attended an early screening for Michael here in Montreal. While there, I saw something I never see at screenings—people sitting in the aisles. That’s how crazy the demand was to see the Michael Jackson biopic. As such, I’m thinking the early estimates that Antoine Fuqua’s movie could open at $40 million-plus are really lowballing it. I now think it has an excellent shot of crossing $80 million, which would be a huge start for Lionsgate’s ambitious film.
Of course, Michael’s transition to the screen hasn’t been an easy one. The entire third act of the film had to be dropped for legal reasons, with the movie now only covering his early life and climaxing with the release of Bad (although the movie really ends with the Victory Tour, as the making of the Bad album isn’t depicted). That leaves the door open for a potential sequel, which I think has a good chance of happening, as even the largely negative reviews (mine was mixed) aren’t going to dissuade fans from seeing this opening weekend.
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie shouldn’t have much trouble grabbing second place, with it on track for another strong weekend, with a $20 million finish likely. I expect around $18 million. Project Hail Mary, which has the best legs of any movie released in some time, will no doubt hit third place with about $13 million. Lee Cronin’s The Mummy should slip to fourth place with about $6.5 million, while the Jason Segel and Samara Weaving-led Over Your Dead Body has a chance at rounding out the top five with about $4.5 million.
Other big openers this weekend include the long-delayed Desert Warrior, a $150 million-plus period adventure produced in Saudi Arabia and starring Anthony Mackie. Despite being directed by Rupert Wyatt (Rise of the Planet of the Apes), it isn’t expected to make much of an impact when Vertical puts it out on Friday.
Here are our predictions:
- Michael: $80 million
- The Super Mario Galaxy Movie: $20 milllion
- Project Hail Mary: $13 million
- Lee Cronin’s The Mummy: $6.5 million
- Over Your Dead Body: $4.5 million
What will you be seeing this weekend? Let us know in the comments.
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