The box office records just might continue for Top Gun: Maverick this weekend. All signs point to the film claiming the best second weekend of a Memorial opener in history due to the sequel experiencing strong word of mouth and having its sophomore frame to itself until the arrival of Jurassic World: Dominion.
The title for the best second-weekend performance of a Memorial opener belongs to Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull which slid to $44.75 million in week two back in 2008. The previous record belonged to Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End, which grossed $44.2 million, while 2019’s live-action Aladdin wasn’t too far behind with a gross of $42.8 million. Second weekends after Memorial Day weekend tend to see bigger plunges because they’re coming off of a frame when most people are off work or out of school. Solo: A Star Wars Story declined by 65% in 2019, while Men In Black 3 and Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull dipped by 49% and 55%, respectively.
What Top Gun: Maverick has over those last few examples is a much better reception from critics and moviegoers. The word of mouth has been stellar as the film still sits at 97% fresh with critics on Rotten Tomatoes and 99% with audiences. Adding to this is the rare “A+” CinemaScore the film received last weekend This is the kind of movie that will be getting repeat business.
By the time you read this, Top Gun: Maverick will be on the way to surpassing the full $180.258 million lifetime gross of 1986’s Top Gun after just a weekend of release. The film grossed $15.8 million on Tuesday, making it easily the best Tuesday in May for a non-Marvel release, per Deadline. It’s clear that moviegoers are still feeling the need for speed and that will continue this weekend. The sequel has some breathing room until Jurassic World: Dominion opens next week so it essentially has the box office itself. I’m calling for a $60 million gross in weekend two.
The rest of the top five will be a standard match of what we saw last weekend. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness is likely looking at a gross of $9.5 million in second place as it gets closer to crossing the $400 million threshold on the domestic front. The Bob’s Burgers Movie will land in third with about $5 million as I think it’s going to see a sizable dip due to the fanbase frontloading its opening last weekend.
Fourth place will see Downton Abbey: A New Era trying to make up for its bigger than expected decline last weekend by leveling off a bit. I’m predicting a gross of about $3.5 million while The Bad Guys will round out the top five with a gross of $3.2 million.
What are YOUR predictions for this weekend’s box office?
TOP FIVE BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS:
- Top Gun: Maverick – $60 million
- Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness – $9.5 million
- The Bob’s Burgers Movie – $5 million
- Downton Abbey: A New Era – $3.5 million
- The Bad Guys – $3.2 million
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