Box Office Predictions: Who Wins in the Battle Between Spider-Man and Transformers?

This weekend sees the release of the latest adventure in the Transformers franchise as Transformers: Rise of the Beasts hits theaters. The film is meant to reboot the series, yet still in the same universe as all previous films. As I understand it, Transformers: Rise of the Beasts is a sequel to Bumblebee which also makes it a prequel to the original five Michael Bay directed movies (Bay remains a producer on this new film.) 

The Transformers franchise has seen it fair share of ups and downs, beginning in 2007 when the original big screen film hit theaters and opened with $70.5 million on its way to a $319.2 million domestic finish ($709.7 worldwide). 2009 saw Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen hit screens with an opening weekend of $108.9 million and a $402.1 million domestic finish ($836.3 million worldwide.) In 2011, we got the final Shia LaBeouf led Transformers film with Dark of the Moon (I can’t lie, I enjoyed LaBeouf in these movies) that opened with $97.8 million and had a domestic total of $352.3 million ($1.123 Billion worldwide). Mark Wahlberg was brought in to the franchise with 2014’s Transformers: Age of Extinction opening with just over $100 million on its way to a $245.4 domestic finish ($1.104 Billion worldwide) and then it seemed audiences just tired of the franchise with 2017’s The Last Knight opening with just $44.6 million on its way to a $130 million domestic take ($605.4 million worldwide.)

None of the films were ever critical darlings with only the original coming close to something resembling decent reviews. But you can not let a multi billion dollar franchise go dormant, so in 2015 a writers room was formed to flesh out new stories in the world of the Transformers and with that we got 2018’s BumbleBee that brought the franchise to a place it had never been before: critical success, as the film was the best reviewed Transformers film ever made with a 91% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, but that rating didn’t mean audiences were fully ready to come back as that film opened with just $21.6 million, yet legged out to a respectable $127.1 million domestic total ($467.9 million worldwide.)

So now the question is: did BumbleBee plus a little extra time, this is the longest gap between live action Transformer movies yet (five years), restore audiences faith in the franchise? Right now, tracking has Rise of the Beasts opening between $50 and $60 million which is more than BumbleBee and The Last Knight opened with, but a far cry from the $100 million openings the franchise used to get. Sadly, it seems reviews, including a 6/10 from our own Eric Walkuski, are not looking that strong with most saying that even though this one is better than the Michael Bay directed ones, it still feels disposable. I will fully admit, I am an unapologetic Michael Bay fan and enjoyed his Transformer movies. I enjoy the French new wave cinema of François Truffaut and Jean-Luc Godard as well as the quirky surrealism of Wes Anderson as much as any other fan of the movies, but sometimes in a movie theater I just want to see some stuff get blowed up real good while scarfing down some artery clogging popped corn and diabetes inducing carbonated sugar water! So, whenever a new Transformers movie hits theaters, I am first in line, and I already have my ticket for the first showing today, and even better: this will be my first time experiencing a movie in a 4DX theater. I have been waiting for the perfect movie to introduce me to 4DX and I think Transformers: Rise of the Beasts is the right choice. 

Of course there is a wrench in Rise of the Beasts opening, and that wrench comes by way of Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse which saw an impressive opening last weekend with $120.6 million with weekday numbers also proving solid. Quite frankly, word of mouth for Across The Spider-Verse is some of the best in recent memory and that will help its second weekend continue its massive box office. So much so that because of the middling reviews for Transformers, I think Spider-Man retains the top spot this weekend with an additional $60 million while Transformers takes second with $55 million.

The remainder of the top five will be your holdover titles such as The Little Mermaid which is proving quite the hit with American audiences, had Disney kept their budget a bit more in check, this one could have been a huge success story, but with international numbers as they are (not good), this one may go down as an end of year write off for the mouse house. Luckily they have a few other entries on the list as Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 is bucking the super-hero trend and garnering small drops week to week. Fifth place will be a toss up between The Boogeyman and Fast X, I’m going to give the edge to Fast X as I think more people will pick that on the big screen over Boogeyman but the difference between the two will be less than a million dollars I think. 

Do you have plans to hit up theaters this weekend? Will you be seeing Transformers: Rise of the Beasts or is your second (third or fourth) viewing of Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse on your itinerary? Let us know in the comments section and don’t forget to check back on Saturday when we have a brief update on where this weekends numbers are heading. 

TOP FIVE PREDICTIONS:

Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse– $60 Million

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts– $55 Million

The Little Mermaid– $23 Million

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3–$7 Million

Fast X– $6 Million