Michael Jackson fans — and there still seem to be A LOT of them — are moonwalking to movie theaters this weekend to see Antoine Fuqua’s Michael. While it was a notoriously beleaguered production that needed to be reworked due to legal challenges that prevented it from depicting the second half of Jackson’s life (after already having shot the footage), whatever the result, Fuqua’s film is making a lot of money. Industry estimates pegged it at about $60 million, while we predicted $80 million on our end.
It turns out even our predictions might have been a little low, with Deadline revealing it’s on track for at least $85 million, with fans turning out to see the film in force. While the reviews have been mixed at best (including ours), audiences seem to be liking it, with it scoring a solid A-minus CinemaScore. It could even gross $95 million or crack $100 million. Anything is possible, with it scoring the best opening ever for a music biopic (higher than Straight Outta Compton’s $60.2 million) while also marking Lionsgate’s best post-pandemic opening, doing better than John Wick: Chapter 4, which opened with $73.8 million.
As expected, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is on track for a second-place finish with about $20.5 million, while Project Hail Mary is looking at about $12 million and a $304 million total. Lee Cronin’s The Mummy is in fourth place with a $5.1 million finish likely (which would be a steep 62% decline), while The Drama should round out the top five with $2.6 million and a $44 million total — turning it into a nice little moneymaker for A24 despite the polarizing twist (or maybe because of it). No news on limited openers like Over Your Dead Body.
What are you seeing this weekend? Let us know in the comments.