Whether or not James Gunn’s Superman is an immediate hit seems to be up for debate. Social media is hailing the film, but the box office numbers—while solid—still fall short of what the superhero genre used to pull in at its peak. Adjusted for inflation, its opening also trails Man of Steel and is significantly behind what Batman v Superman made.
That said, in a post-COVID world, a $125 million domestic opening is nothing to sneeze at. However, overseas the film is underperforming, bringing in $95 million internationally—a softer-than-expected result for a global tentpole.
As such, the second weekend is crucial, both domestically and abroad. In North America, if the movie drops more than 60%, many will start labeling it a major disappointment. But if it holds to a drop under 50%, it could have legs and play well throughout the summer.
We expect a drop of around 50–55%, putting the second weekend in the $55–60 million range. The goodwill around the film seems strong enough to avoid a steep decline. It also helps that Smurfs isn’t tracking well, nor is the reboot/sequel of I Know What You Did Last Summer. Neither seems likely to take second place, which should go to Jurassic World: Rebirth with an estimated $20 million.
Smurfs will likely open in third with around $18 million, while I Know What You Did Last Summer seems poised to underperform—similar to Sony’s other legacy sequel this year, Karate Kid: Legends—with about $16 million. That would leave F1 in fifth place with around $10 million.
Here’s what we’re expecting:
- Superman – $60 million
- Jurassic World: Rebirth – $20 million
- Smurfs – $18 million
- I Know What You Did Last Summer – $16 million
- F1 – $10 million
How much do you think Superman will drop this weekend? Let us know in the comments!
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