It’s a good time to be Tom Holland. The actor is looking at accomplishing the rare feat of claiming both the first and second spots at the box office this weekend, thanks to his supporting role in Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey and his latest turn as Peter Parker in Spider-Man: Brand New Day. While The Odyssey has already become the year’s runaway box office phenomenon (IMAX showings all over North America are sold out for weeks), Spider-Man: Brand New Day is looking to be an even bigger hit, with pre-sales and tracking suggesting an incredible opening in the $280 million range.
For comparison’s sake, that would make it the second-biggest opening weekend of all time, beating the box office debut of the last live-action Spider-Man, the star-packed No Way Home, which made $260 million back in 2021. That opening was considered a surprise, as the movie debuted smack-dab in the middle of the pandemic, at a time when some theaters were closed and those that were open had strict seating restrictions, meaning many auditoriums could only be half full. Without those limitations in place, Brand New Day looks poised to surpass that opening, with its box office debut second only to Avengers: Endgame, which remains the all-time champion with a $357 million opening.
While many point to superhero fatigue, Spider-Man is one of the few characters who seems immune. Audiences love Peter Parker, particularly Holland, as well as co-star Zendaya as MJ. Spider-Man is kind of like Batman (or Deadpool) in that it draws a broad audience, including plenty of moviegoers who might not otherwise see a superhero film in theaters.
Meanwhile, The Odyssey is looking at a terrific third weekend, with a projected $50 million haul, as the film has become a true box office juggernaut. It’s likely to surpass Nolan’s Oppenheimer domestic total ($330 million) by the end of the weekend as it cruises toward a minimum $500 million domestic finish. Disney’s Toy Story 5, which is, so far, the top movie of the year, is likely to finish in third place with about $5 million, although Moana shouldn’t be too far behind. Minions & Monsters should round out the top five, although grosses are expected to be modest, as family audiences will no doubt be flocking to Spider-Man.
Here are our predictions:
Are you going to brave the crowds to see Brand New Day this weekend? Let us know in the comments.