Last weekend, The Mandalorian and Grogu managed to gross $100 million over the Memorial Day holiday weekend, but the result was met with a collective shrug, as while that would usually be considered a good result, for a Star Wars film it’s quite underwhelming. In fact, when Solo: A Star Wars Story grossed a similar amount eight years ago, it was deemed a flop — although no one is saying The Mandalorian and Grogu is a flop, as it was reportedly produced for a much lower budget than a typical Star Wars movie.
Even still, many don’t think it has a prayer of winning the box office in its second weekend, with it looking at at least a 60% decline to about $35 million. Instead, many believe the top spot will go to A24’s Backrooms. Directed by twenty-year-old YouTuber Kane Parsons, the reviews (including ours) have been solid, but the pre-sales have been out of this world. Many believe it will score in the $50 million range, although I’m thinking it’s looking more like about $40 million. This would give it the biggest opening in A24’s history, with the previous record-holder being Alex Garland’s Civil War, which made $25.5 million.
Third place will go to another former YouTuber, Curry Barker, whose Obsession pulled off an impossible feat last weekend and actually grew over 30% in its gross — which is practically unheard of. It benefited from the holiday weekend, but its business should hold up well, giving it a weekend in the $18 million range as it cruises to a $100 million-plus domestic finish. Michael, another movie showing tremendous legs, should score about $15 million, while the Nate Bargatze-led family comedy The Breadwinner should manage about $10 million.
Our Predictions
- Backrooms: $40 million
- The Mandalorian and Grogu: $35 million
- Obsession: $18 million
- Michael: $15 million
- The Breadwinner: $10 million
What are you seeing this weekend? Let us know in the comments.
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