Box Office Predictions: Disney's Wish and Ridley Scott's Napoleon lead a crowded Thanksgiving weekend

Last Updated on November 24, 2023

Disney continues its tradition of releasing a new animated film over the holiday. Generally this release strategy has paid off with hits such as Frozen (2013- $67.3 million domestic opening), Moana (2016- $56.6 million domestic opening), Coco (2017- $50.8 million domestic opening), Ralph Breaks The Internet (2018- $56.2 million domestic opening) and Frozen II (2019- $85.9 million domestic opening). Of course the past few years saw those stellar Disney openings drop off a bit with 2021’s Encanto starting off with $27.2 million, although that movie really caught on when it hit hime video/ streaming. The same can’t be said for last years flat out bomb, Strange World which opened with just $12.1 million and finished with only $37.9 million.

This year Disney looks to right the ship with Wish, the story of a girl who wishes upon a star and that star comes to life. Basically the story Disney has been pitching us for the better part of a century! I actually saw this film last night (in 3D) and found it to be a really solid throw back to old school Disney movies. The villain reminded me of Ursula from The Little Mermaid and Jafar from Aladdin while the voice talent was all excellent, including, as our own JimmyO put it in his 8/10 review, a scene stealing vocal performance from the always great Alan Tudyk. The film has a decent soundtrack, but if I had to pick the one toe tapper of the bunch, the track “Knowing What We Know Now” was my favorite. It wasn’t a cookie cutter piece of music but a really solid funky little tune.

Right now tracking for the animated film is looking at around $35 million for the weekend with its full 5-day take in the $50 million range. I do think this one can soar bit higher, $40 million for the weekend with a $55 million 5-day. With a budget in the $200 million range before marketing (and Disney definitely put some money in the marketing for this film) it is going to need some really solid word of mouth to ultimately be deemed a success. Of course it will have some competition from Trolls Band Together, but I think there is enough room in the holiday marketplace for both animated titles to thrive.

The next new release is the Ridley Scott epic Napoleon, which is a film much like the recent Killers of the Flower Moon, that carries a hefty $200 million budget, yet doesn’t really need to be a a big box office smash. The reason that is, is because the film was funded by Apple for their Apple TV + streaming service, The theatrical release is really just to give the filmmakers the respect they deserve with a theatrical release, play it in theaters for awards consideration and of course: the publicity generated by a theatrical release is all great advertising for when it hits Apple TV +.Whatever the reason, I will sing the praises of Apple for embracing a traditional theatrical model for these films from acclaimed directors and hope they continue this model for all of their titles (I also hope they give us physical releases of these titles as I own every film from both of these directors and would like to keep that collection up to date! Christopher Nolan and I are in full agreement on the state of physical media vs. streaming.)

Right now Napoleon is tracking to do around $16 million for the weekend with a $22 million 5-day start. Again, I think the holiday will prove fruitful at the box office and this one can get to a $20 million weekend with a $26-$27 million 5-day. I base this estimate off of the fact that my local theater has most of their showings pretty packed already and that is before walk up business. Ridley Scott isn’t always a surefire hit at the box office, for every The Martian ($630.6 worldwide total and one of my top ten favorite movies of all time) there is a Last Duel ($30.5 million worldwide total, even though the movie is really good, if you haven’t seen it, check it out).

Napoleon is pulling in decent reviews with most critics agreeing that despite its over two and a half hour run time, it feels incomplete, which makes sense when you consider Scott has already teased a four hour cut of the film that will reportedly be released to Apple+. Our own Chris Bumbray found the theatrical cut to be quite good, giving it a solid 8/10 in his review, but says that he can not wait to see the extended cut because this one has the potential to be one of Scott’s genuinely great films. As we all know, Scott thrives when it comes to his Director’s Cuts, just look at Blade Runner and Kingdom of Heaven (among others).

The remainder of the top five will be last weeks new releases The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes looking to avoid a Marvels level drop in its second week. I expect a drop in the 60% range and a second week take of $17.5 million while Trolls Band Together will face the competition from Wish, its 91% audience score and hit N*Sync song Better Place should keep this one from dropping too much with a potential $17 million weekend, which when all is said and done could be enough to take down Hunger Games, if the games have a steeper than expected drop off.

Rounding out the top five on this Thanksgiving weekend will be… Thanksgiving! The Eli Roth directed film has garnered some strong reviews, including an 8/10 from our own Tyler Nichols and should do about $10 million on its namesake holiday. As I said last week, I really enjoyed this one as it was a throwback to those mid 90’s (shout out to Jonah Hill) slasher movies like Scream and I Know What You Did Last Summer.

Also of note this weekend is the expansion of two Oscar hopefuls. First up is the Emerald Fennell written and directed film Saltburn which is expanding to over 1500 screens this weekend while The Holdovers, a film for which I can not stop singing its praises, also breaks wide this weekend as it continues it successful slow rollout as awards season heats up and the film starts to garner more press as it will surely be one of the big nominated films this year (deservedly so).

Do your Thanksgiving plans include taking in a delightful feature film? If so, let us know what you plan on seeing in the comments and don’t forget to check back with us on Saturday when we have a brief update on where this weekends box office numbers are heading.

And of course, Happy Thanksgiving to all who celebrate!

TOP FIVE PREDICTIONS