The Fourth of July weekend is typically one of the biggest moviegoing events of the year. I vividly remember seeing Independence Day over the holiday weekend back in 1996—what an event that was!
This year’s big Fourth of July release is Jurassic World: Rebirth, the seventh film in the franchise. It aims to bring the series—long since gone off the rails—back down to earth with an installment more in line with the original films. While reviews have been poor (including ours), the early box office returns have been solid, with the film earning an estimated $30.5 million on its first day.
However, there’s a catch: the movie received a weak B CinemaScore, which doesn’t bode well for long-term word of mouth. Current projections put it at around $130 million for the five-day weekend, and roughly $80 million for the traditional three-day stretch.
That might sound impressive, but for a Jurassic World film, it’s actually underwhelming. The original Jurassic World opened to $208 million a decade ago, and its two sequels each topped $140 million on their three-day openings. By comparison, Rebirth‘s $80 million haul—especially with a lukewarm audience reception—is soft. It’s on track for the lowest three-day opening in the series since Jurassic Park III made $50.8 million back in 2001. Adjusted for inflation, even that would be more than Rebirth is expected to bring in.
That said, the budget for Rebirth appears to be significantly lower than that of the last two Jurassic World films, so Universal might still walk away with a decent profit.
Meanwhile, all eyes are on Apple’s F1 to see how it holds up in its second weekend. With a strong A CinemaScore, a $30 million sophomore weekend seems likely—about a 45% drop, which would be quite respectable.
Here are my predictions for the three-day weekend:
- Jurassic World: Rebirth – $80 million
- F1 – $30 million
- How to Train Your Dragon – $12 million
- Elio – $10 million
- 28 Years Later – $6 million
What are you seeing this 4th of July weekend?
