One of the biggest gambles for a movie studio is choosing the right release date. I’m sure that when Amazon/MGM picked out a June 5, 2027 release date for their highly anticipated Masters of the Universe, they figured they had a good shot. But what they didn’t count on was the anticipation that would build around the Wayans Bros.’ return to the Scary Movie franchise, which has steadily grown since Paramount released a couple of genuinely funny trailers a few months ago.
If Scary Movie were the only competition for Masters of the Universe, that would be one thing. With Scary Movie looking at about $45 million for the weekend, the He-Man reboot could have muscled its way to a $40 million-plus opening, which would have been solid. But what they didn’t count on was the fact that two horror movie breakouts, Backrooms and Obsession, would go on to become absolute phenomena that will suck the air out of the box office this weekend.
Backrooms opened north of $80 million last weekend, and while it’s certainly front-loaded, it should still make $30 million this weekend. Sadly, that will be enough to beat Masters of the Universe (which we loved). Frankly, there’s no way it makes more than $30 million, although $25 million seems more likely. At best, it will wind up in third place. However, there’s also a scenario where it comes in fourth, with Obsession continuing to build audiences week to week, with no sign that it’s slowing down. Obsession should make $20 million this weekend, although it could rally and hit $25 million, which would likely prove disastrous for He-Man.
Finally, the season’s biggest flop so far, The Mandalorian and Grogu, will sink to fifth place with about $15 million, as it becomes the lowest-grossing Star Wars movie (domestically) of all time.
Here are our predictions:
- Scary Movie: $45 million
- Backrooms: $30 million
- Masters of the Universe: $25 million
- Obsession: $20 million
- The Mandalorian and Grogu: $15 million
What are you seeing this weekend? Let us know in the comments.
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