Memorial Day weekend is set to be a big one at the box office, with both Disney’s Lilo & Stitch, and Paramount’s Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning on track for massive openings. However, even if The Final Reckoning promises to be the last Mission: Impossible movie, it seems unlikely to pose a considerable threat to Disney’s latest.
Despite the fact that there have been eight Mission: Impossible movies, the films haven’t always proven to be blockbusters on the domestic side. Mission: Impossible – Fallout remains the highest-grossing domestic release, with a $220 million gross off of a $61 million opening. The Final Reckoning seems poised to make about what that one did this weekend, with it looking like it’ll gross $60 million, which is better than what its predecessor, Dead Reckoning, did two years ago, with $54 million. The Memorial Day weekend will help boost its grosses somewhat, but the fact that it relies so heavily on perhaps the least popular instalment in the series seems likely to hamper its box office somewhat.
By contrast, Disney’s Lilo & Stitch seems likely to attract a big family audience this weekend, and should gross in the $140 million range, which is close to what the original film made in its entire run. Disney has been marketing this one to death, and without much competition out there for families, it should have a gargantuan weekend. Final Destination: Bloodlines should easily take third place, with about $20 million (horror movies are always front loaded), on its way to a superb $100 million plus gross for WB.
Sinners and Thunderbolts will round out the top five. Expect Sinners to make in the $12 million range, while Thunderbolts should do about $10 million. While a critical hit, Thunderbolts seems doomed to go down as one of the lowest-grossing Marvel movies, while Sinners is on its way to an incredible $300 million plus final gross.
Here are our predictions:
- Lilo & Stitch: $140 million
- Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning: $60 million
- Final Destination: Bloodlines: $20 million
- Sinners: $12 million
- Thunderbolts: $10 million
What are you seeing this holiday weekend? Let us know in the comments!
