A curious thing is happening at the box office this weekend—no big movies are opening in theaters. Who could blame them? No one wants to be caught in the wake of The Odyssey, and, on the other side of the coin, no one wants to open knowing that Spider-Man: Brand New Day is going to totally dominate the box office crown next weekend and (likely) through much of August. This is why nothing big is opening until The End of Oak Street in the middle of the month. Sure, you have a few small openers like Her Private Hell or Motor City, but neither is expected to crack the top five this weekend.
Instead, everyone is curious as to what kind of hold The Odyssey will have. Nolan’s last movie, Oppenheimer, only dropped about 43%. The Odyssey should hold up similarly well, with it looking at about a $75 million weekend as it blasts its way to a minimum $300 million domestic gross—making it a huge winner for both Christopher Nolan and Universal (no wonder Vulture pegged him as the most powerful director in Hollywood).
By virtue of a lack of competition, Moana should be able to hang in there with about $10 million, as Disney’s underwhelming live-action remake looks more and more like a disaster that’s bound to lose the studio over $100 million and severely dent Dwayne Johnson’s box office brand (he’s made too many mediocre family action movies). It could even be beaten by the year’s biggest film, Toy Story 5, which is looking at about $9 million, while Minions & Monsters should manage about $7 million. What will round out the top five? I think Nicolas Winding Refn’s Her Private Hell could squeeze into fifth place with $5 million thanks to the Neon brand, although the reviews have been polarizing, to say the least.
Here are our predictions:
- The Odyssey: $75 million
- Moana: $10 million
- Toy Story 5: $9 million
- Minions & Monsters: $8 million
- Her Private Hell: $5 million
What are you seeing this weekend? Let us know in the comments!
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